2011 NBA Draft

[Aike]

I see a lot of talk about strong drafts or weak drafts, but really, you can't tell for about 5 years how strong a draft was.

Case in point - 2011.

That was supposed to be a weak draft because of the looming lockout.

5 years later, look at the surprises that draft produced.

Klay Thompson was picked 11th (after Jimmer Fredette).

Kawhi Leonard went 15th (right after the Morris twins).

Jimmy Butler went 30th.

Kyrie at the top of that draft has performed as expected, and there are several other solid players like Knight, Faried, and Tristan Thompson.

Bottom line: we spend a lot of time fretting over scout predictions and expectations, but it's an inexact science at best.

Every year, there are some surprises. Sometimes, there are so many surprises that a weak draft becomes one of the strongest.

 

[docholiday51]

So many people are spending so much time on projections about NBA drafts, incoming recruit classes and the like, there is so much "information" or misinformation out there to the point of information overload.

You can find somebody to backup what you want to believe about just about any player you care to name. I believe some of these "experts" just throw a boatload of stuff out there and figure some of it will be right and they can claim a good call while no one notices the ton of stuff they got wrong.

 

[Nubb16]

Really good post OP. While projections and potential are important, it is clearly not the only measurable factor. You need to wait a few years to see if a draft stinks. What if a guy like wall, davis, okafor, random can't miss prospect has some other intangible factor that will inhibit his abilities to grow like a drug habit or just a head case? So it is hard to see who will Pam out where. MKG is a solid nba player and great at what he does. I thought he would be allstar caliber and at this point he hasn't been. Some players dot progress in areas that is projected to see progress. I will say this, the 2013 draft was terrible and will probably remain that way.

 

[GonzoCat90]

I think it's important to define what people mean when they say a strong or weak class. To me, it means the number of "sure things" at the top. Bonafide, safe, likely stars.

The 2003 draft had a handful of guys who were almost guaranteed to be All-Stars (or better) at the top, for example. So while other classes may surprise us and have lower-drafted guys end up being great players, it doesn't factor as much into the discussion at the time.

All anyone can really do is project based on what we know as "sure things" because even then it's such a volatile process. If you had told me Steph Curry would be the MVP and OJ Mayo would just be a rotation guy when the two were in high school, I'd have laughed in your face.

 

[Aike]

I think it's important to define what people mean when they say a strong or weak class. To me, it means the number of "sure things" at the top. Bonafide, safe, likely stars.

The 2003 draft had a handful of guys who were almost guaranteed to be All-Stars (or better) at the top, for example. So while other classes may surprise us and have lower-drafted guys end up being great players, it doesn't factor as much into the discussion at the time.

All anyone can really do is project based on what we know as "sure things" because even then it's such a volatile process. If you had told me Steph Curry would be the MVP and OJ Mayo would just be a rotation guy when the two were in high school, I'd have laughed in your face.

Projections have their place, but there are enough misses that it should give us pause before freaking out, or labeling a class as weak.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

Yep if there was a redraft it would be something like:
Kyrie Irving
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler
Klay Thompson
Jonas Valanciunas
Enes Kanter
Nikola Vucevic
Isaiah Thomas
Kemba Walker
Brandon Knight
Reggie Jackson
Chandler Parsons
Nikola Mirotic
Tobias Harris
Alec Burks
Morris Twins
Norris Cole

That's a pretty good draft if you ask me.

 

[jockstrap_mcgee]

Yep if there was a redraft it would be something like:
Kyrie Irving
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler
Klay Thompson
Jonas Valanciunas
Enes Kanter
Nikola Vucevic
Isaiah Thomas
Kemba Walker
Brandon Knight
Reggie Jackson
Chandler Parsons
Nikola Mirotic
Tobias Harris
Alec Burks
Morris Twins
Norris Cole

That's a pretty good draft if you ask me.

No way do I take kyrie first. He's too one dimensional compared to Leonard or Butler. You can build a team around those guys but kyrie is better as the second option.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I see a lot of talk about strong drafts or weak drafts, but really, you can't tell for about 5 years how strong a draft was.

Case in point - 2011.

That was supposed to be a weak draft because of the looming lockout.

5 years later, look at the surprises that draft produced.

Klay Thompson was picked 11th (after Jimmer Fredette).

Kawhi Leonard went 15th (right after the Morris twins).

Jimmy Butler went 30th.

Kyrie at the top of that draft has performed as expected, and there are several other solid players like Knight, Faried, and Tristan Thompson.

Bottom line: we spend a lot of time fretting over scout predictions and expectations, but it's an inexact science at best.

Every year, there are some surprises. Sometimes, there are so many surprises that a weak draft becomes one of the strongest.

Great thread, Aike.

I agree. On the flipside, many folks on this board thought the '14 draft would be one of the most loaded ever due to Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Gordon, Smart, Randle, etc.

Outside Wiggins, none of the other guys look like they're on pace to be future All-Stars, although many have been solid contributors.

When people say "loaded draft" in reference to an upcoming draft, they need to be careful that they're not confusing a top-heavy draft (like the '14 draft) for a draft that is actually deep. The '14 draft was not deep at all, and yet many of our fans were comparing it to the LeBron draft or the 1996 NBA draft, which was ridiculous from a depth level.

 

[JohnnyGentle]

think you'd have to take leonard first in a redraft

 

[nookam]

Many are saying Leonard is the best overall player in the game right now. His defense is amazing to watch. He can score just as well.
Wish Boogie or AD could have had the benefit of a Popovich and surrounded by talent.
Statistically, Boogie is really putting up numbers with Rondo playing well.
Will Sacrsmento resign Rondo? If so how much will they pay? Going to cost them and Boogie would throw a fit if they let him go.