Semi-Finals Gonzo vs. Catsfan3523

[DraftCat]

Draft Bracket - http://challonge.com/vgm0ajvi

gonzocat90 - Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Chris Paul, Avery Bradley, Markelle Fultz, Steven Adams, Brook Lopez, Gary Harris, Robert Covington, Ricky Rubio, Lauri Markkanen, Marcus Morris

catsfan3523 - Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Myles Turner, Jae Crowder, Trevor Ariza, Dennis Smith Jr, Patrick Beverly, Dwight Howard, Thaddeus Young, John Collins, Andrew Harrison

This is the playoffs who has the best team and will win the most championships over a 7 year period. Please vote. This round ends 8/20 at 9:00 PM Est.

 

[DraftCat]

This is an interesting matchup... going to give the edge to Gonzo early on this will but want to see debate before I vote.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Listen, there's no one here who doesn't love Anthony Davis. But let's be objective.

He has never won a playoff series. In fact, he totally missed the playoffs this year. I realize he's on a poor team, but basketball more than any other sport allows one player to make a difference.

Keep in mind, these are nuanced discussions. No one thinks Davis sucks or is a loser. But at this level it's the small differences like Kawhi being a finals MVP with tons of winning experience already compared to Davis never being there.

He has also only played more than 68 games once in his career. In a league this competitive, you can't afford to have your cornerstone miss 20 games per year.

Kyrie is no better. After missing essentially his entire freshman year at Duke, Kyrie has played less than 60 games in half of his NBA seasons, not counting a year where his playoff injury cost the Cavs the finals.

Bradley Beal has only played more than 64 games twice in his NBA career.

You cannot trust a team to win multiple championships over a 7 year period when it's three most important players have all been plagued by injuries throughout their careers. Those things don't typically get better as you get older and put more strain on your body. Especially if you're making deep playoff runs where you play 16 more games, with majorly increased minutes, under much greater intensity.


We can breakdown why my team is actually a better team, but I'm not sure it needs to go that far. You can have a car that goes 300 miles an hour, but if it breaks down every half mile, you won't win any races.

 

[bbn93]

This ones close. Should come doen to just a few votes. Not sure who I'm going with.

 

[bbn93]

Trying to predict injuries is by far the toughest thing about this. Assuming everyone stays healthy could be a good way to go about it next tine. AD could never miss another game, and kawhi could suffer a career ending injury. That's harder to predict than player development imo.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Before we go much further, I would also like to point out some important roster issues.

SG: Bradley Beal and ??
SF: Jae Crowder, Trevor Ariza (32 years old) and ??

Three wings on the entire team? And one is injury prone Brad Beal? In a league evolving into interchangeable, versatile, guys who can play and guard multiple positions?

 

[GonzoCat90]

Trying to predict injuries is by far the toughest thing about this. Assuming everyone stays healthy could be a good way to go about it next tine. AD could never miss another game, and kawhi could suffer a career ending injury. That's harder to predict than player development imo.

Think all you can do is go off of past history. Anything "could" happen but we're dealing with what's likely based on trends and projections.

 

[bbn93]

Think all you can do is go off of past history. Anything "could" happen but we're dealing with what's likely based on trends and projections.

Freak injuries happen to very durable guys though. It's a lot more rare that a good young player has a sharp decline in ability. Idk, just seems like assuming guys are gonna get hurt makes it more complicated than what's needed. It does add to the discussion and is definitely a factor though.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Freak injuries happen to very durable guys though. It's a lot more rare that a good young player has a sharp decline in ability. Idk, just seems like assuming guys are gonna get hurt makes it more complicated than what's needed. It does add to the discussion and is definitely a factor though.

I don't think anyone is projecting freak injuries. I think there's a pretty clear pattern of missing games among his top guys, which is partially why they were available when they were.

Any bread *could* be stale but the loaf that's past expiration date and on sale for 75% off has much better odds.

 

[bbn93]

It's just morbid thinking AD may not live up to his potential due to injury haha

 

[bbn93]

I don't think anyone is projecting freak injuries. I think there's a pretty clear pattern of missing games among his top guys, which is partially why they were available when they were.

Any bread *could* be stale but the loaf that's past expiration date and on sale for 75% off has much better odds.

my point kind of was nobody is predicting the freak injuries, but like with Westbrook a couple years back and many others they're bound to happen. I'm just saying that's a lot more of a crapshoot than assuming Karl Town will be a good player for a long time.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Wouldn't be the first. Bill Walton is still a legend, but what if?

We can see Davis is insanely talented and uniquely equipped, but if he plays 60 games and his team misses the playoffs...it's a bit hollow.

 

[kornucopia]

This one is close

 

[Catzman]

I'm still salty after my loss, especially seeing Gonzo put so eloquently what I couldn't lol.

Jokes aside I have a hard time saying Gonzo doesn't take this one, but it doesn't matter. Anthony Davis and 11 waterboys would get the vote. I know now for next year that this is 98% popular vote and 2% actual production.

 

[GonzoCat90]

I would just ask that if you've voted for Catsfan that you respond to the injury prone best players.

And what happens when Kyrie gets to the Finals and then wants to leave because Davis is a bigger star than he is? He's shown he doesn't want to play second fiddle even when the team is winning.

I mean this is a 12 team draft and he's got Jae Crowder and Trevor Ariza at the three. That's it. For 7 years. And Brad Beal is the only 2G. For 7 years. He's never played a full season. Not even close.

 

[Aike]

The anti-AD argument is pretty weak. He absolutely drug NO to the playoffs the year the made it. No, he didn't win a game...against GS.

Injuries? Yeah, sure. Nothing serious though. NO has been super cautious about protecting their asset.

But we all know what AD can do with the right pieces around him. And plenty of other guys on that team have lots of playoff experience. Not the least of which, Kyrie, owns one of the all-time Game 7 game winning daggers.

I still haven't decided yet, though. My problem with Gonzo's team is that they are built to win now, but probably not later, because of Chris Paul's age.

But then I look at the two lineups and wonder, "Who would actually win a 7 game series today?" Because if Gonzo can't win now, he can't win.

So looking at matchups, Kawhi/Crowder is a good matchup. Advantage Kawhi, but interesting nonetheless, and probably closer than some would think.

AD/Draymond is another good matchup. Advantage AD, but not overwhelmingly at this point.

Chris Paul and Kyrie, today, I'll call a wash.

Adams/Turner, push.

Bradley/Beverly, push.

Then you have Beal and...?? I guess Gonzo will throw out Harris or Covington, but this is the point where Gonzo starts to lose me.

 

[Aike]

I would just ask that if you've voted for Catsfan that you respond to the injury prone best players.

And what happens when Kyrie gets to the Finals and then wants to leave because Davis is a bigger star than he is? He's shown he doesn't want to play second fiddle even when the team is winning.

I mean this is a 12 team draft and he's got Jae Crowder and Trevor Ariza at the three. That's it. For 7 years. And Brad Beal is the only 2G. For 7 years. He's never played a full season. Not even close.

LOL. I don't think players demanding trades is a consideration here. But nice try.

 

[GonzoCat90]

LOL. I don't think players demanding trades is a consideration here. But nice try.

The anti-AD argument is pretty weak. He absolutely drug NO to the playoffs the year the made it. No, he didn't win a game...against GS.

Injuries? Yeah, sure. Nothing serious though. NO has been super cautious about protecting their asset.

But we all know what AD can do with the right pieces around him. And plenty of other guys on that team have lots of playoff experience. Not the least of which, Kyrie, owns one of the all-time Game 7 game winning daggers.

I still haven't decided yet, though. My problem with Gonzo's team is that they are built to win now, but probably not later, because of Chris Paul's age.

But then I look at the two lineups and wonder, "Who would actually win a 7 game series today?" Because if Gonzo can't win now, he can't win.

So looking at matchups, Kawhi/Crowder is a good matchup. Advantage Kawhi, but interesting nonetheless, and probably closer than some would think.

AD/Draymond is another good matchup. Advantage AD, but not overwhelmingly at this point.

Chris Paul and Kyrie, today, I'll call a wash.

Adams/Turner, push.

Bradley/Beverly, push.

Then you have Beal and...?? I guess Gonzo will throw out Harris or Covington, but this is the point where Gonzo starts to lose me.

Your top 3 guys missing 20 out of 82 games a year can't be dismissed. As I said, it rarely gets better.

And you can't just dismiss the winning thing either. The old adage about having to pay your dues in the NBA is true.

We've seen what incredible players typically do in their first finals. They lose. You have to advance to the conference finals and lose, take your lumps and come back and advance to the finals and lose, and then go back for revenge.

Obviously that doesn't play a huge factor on guys down the roster, but if your best player has never been to the second round, that puts you at least two years away from a title, historically.

When you factor in that one of those years might be a year where his knee is "sore" again and he misses 25 games...

So while you keep trying to beat the Chris Paul age drum (even with the biggest upside PG in the league behind him) to diminish my chances in years 5-7, what about the very real chance that AD never wins one at all?

Tell you what: take Chris Paul off my team after year 3 and take Anthony Davis off his team and see how you feel. Take Brad Beal away and assume Fultz doesn't live up to the hype. How's it look?

 

[GonzoCat90]

I'm still salty after my loss, especially seeing Gonzo put so eloquently what I couldn't lol.

Jokes aside I have a hard time saying Gonzo doesn't take this one, but it doesn't matter. Anthony Davis and 11 waterboys would get the vote. I know now for next year that this is 98% popular vote and 2% actual production.

Especially when the very reason Davis wasn't picked higher gets completely ignored. Hypothetical rate of age regression of Chris Paul is fine, but actual data of Davis missing 20 games per year is just impossible projection that no one can predict.

 

[Aike]

Your top 3 guys missing 20 out of 82 games a year can't be dismissed. As I said, it rarely gets better.

And you can't just dismiss the winning thing either. The old adage about having to pay your dues in the NBA is true.

We've seen what incredible players typically do in their first finals. They lose. You have to advance to the conference finals and lose, take your lumps and come back and advance to the finals and lose, and then go back for revenge.

Obviously that doesn't play a huge factor on guys down the roster, but if your best player has never been to the second round, that puts you at least two years away from a title, historically.

When you factor in that one of those years might be a year where his knee is "sore" again and he misses 25 games...

So while you keep trying to beat the Chris Paul age drum (even with the biggest upside PG in the league behind him) to diminish my chances in years 5-7, what about the very real chance that AD never wins one at all?

Tell you what: take Chris Paul off my team after year 3 and take Anthony Davis off his team and see how you feel. Take Brad Beal away and assume Fultz doesn't live up to the hype. How's it look?

It's my contention that AD has been held out mostly for precautionary reasons. I don't see it being a problem going forward.

I do see CP3 dropping off. But even if he doesn't, he's a career playoff loser, despite being on some talented teams.

I am already factoring in taking CP off your team in 3 years. That's why I think your window is short.

I don't know why I would take Beal away. He is young, extremely talented (proven), and likely to get better.

Fultz, on the other hand, is all of those except proven. And he's a good deal younger. So I will remove Fultz if you like, but not Beal. One is the real deal, the other is a maybe, eventually.

 

[GonzoCat90]

It's my contention that AD has been held out mostly for precautionary reasons. I don't see it being a problem going forward.

I do see CP3 dropping off. But even if he doesn't, he's a career playoff loser, despite being on some talented teams.

I am already factoring in taking CP off your team in 3 years. That's why I think your window is short.

I don't know why I would take Beal away. He is young, extremely talented (proven), and likely to get better.

Fultz, on the other hand, is all of those except proven. And he's a good deal younger. So I will remove Fultz if you like, but not Beal. One is the real deal, the other is a maybe, eventually.

What are the precautions? Do they just get a bad feeling he might sprain an ankle and sit him randomly for extended stretches?

Every year means it is a pattern.

Beal is the same way. Is a contending Wizards team resting him as a precaution too? That's why I said take him away.

 

[hotelblue]

i voted for gonzo as i believe no one on that squad could handle kawhi leonard the next 7 years. the same could be said for irving but he needs to distribute also and that would take away some of his offense. paul would be happy to share the ball and set up kawhi especially as he gets older. there's no question though that offensively davis/irving is scary as heck. this was real close.

 

[Aike]

What are the precautions? Do they just get a bad feeling he might sprain an ankle and sit him randomly for extended stretches?

Every year means it is a pattern.

Beal is the same way. Is a contending Wizards team resting him as a precaution too? That's why I said take him away.

I follow AD pretty closely. It's usually some kind of nick nack injury caused by over-exuberance.

Then they hold him out, because why risk your franchise if you aren't even in the playoff race?

And no, I'm not about to toss out Bradley Beal. Sorry.

By the way, AD played 75 games last year and Beal played 77 (plus the playoffs).

So I'm going to believe that they are both maturing and getting better at taking care of their bodies.

But yeah, if you can convince everyone that none of the other team's best players will play, you've got this thing on lock.

 

[GonzoCat90]

I follow AD pretty closely. It's usually some kind of nick nack injury caused by over-exuberance.

Then they hold him out, because why risk your franchise if you aren't even in the playoff race?

And no, I'm not about to toss out Bradley Beal. Sorry.

By the way, AD played 75 games last year and Beal played 77 (plus the playoffs).

So I'm going to believe that they are both maturing and getting better at taking care of their bodies.

But yeah, if you can convince everyone that none of the other team's best players will play, you've got this thing on lock.

Imagine being a great player and being so far out of the playoff race that the team sits you for the last 20 games.

I'm sure he'll take Hero Ball Kyrie and Broken Brad Beal to the promised land this season. 7 footers with reoccurring injuries always get healthier as they age and play more games.

Or should we go back and let the team with Embiid advance to the finals? Cause injuries sure mattered when it wasn't a UK guy.

But again, we're back to the root of the problem.

 

[Aike]

Imagine being a great player and being so far out of the playoff race that the team sits you for the last 20 games.

I'm sure he'll take Hero Ball Kyrie and Broken Brad Beal to the promised land this season. 7 footers with reoccurring injuries always get healthier as they age and play more games.

Or should we go back and let the team with Embiid advance to the finals? Cause injuries sure mattered when it wasn't a UK guy.

But again, we're back to the root of the problem.

Haha, good try buddy. There is no problem. AD played 75 games last year, so yeah, I guess he is getting healthier.

Embiid. Yep. Totally the same. Gotta give you an A for effort at least.

 

[Catzman]

Its not just davis thats a question mark. He has dwight howard who wont be anything useful in 3 years. He only has davis and Turner by season 4 to go with 6'8 thaddeus young. I know size isn't everything in the NBA today but come on. 2 centers and a sf/pf isnt enough.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

I would just ask that if you've voted for Catsfan that you respond to the injury prone best players.

And what happens when Kyrie gets to the Finals and then wants to leave because Davis is a bigger star than he is? He's shown he doesn't want to play second fiddle even when the team is winning.

I mean this is a 12 team draft and he's got Jae Crowder and Trevor Ariza at the three. That's it. For 7 years. And Brad Beal is the only 2G. For 7 years. He's never played a full season. Not even close.

I used the same injury argument last year when we played. No one bought it even though it is true that AD has been injury prone.

 

[gossie21]

This one is difficult for me. I think catsfan did a better job drafting his 1st 4 players, I think DSjr can be every bit as good as Fultz, but I don't love his Ariza or Dwight picks. As for Gonzo I can't stand either Draymond or CP3, but I think he did a better job filling out his bench.

I think I'm going to go with Catsfan on this one. I think Davis is good for 7 healthy years and he's the best player on either roster, and you have to go with the stars.

 

[GonzoCat90]

This one is difficult for me. I think catsfan did a better job drafting his 1st 4 players, I think DSjr can be every bit as good as Fultz, but I don't love his Ariza or Dwight picks. As for Gonzo I can't stand either Draymond or CP3, but I think he did a better job filling out his bench.

I think I'm going to go with Catsfan on this one. I think Davis is good for 7 healthy years and he's the best player on either roster, and you have to go with the stars.

Solid troll, but not good enough to craft a response. Step it up. This is the final 4.

 

[GonzoCat90]

I used the same injury argument last year when we played. No one bought it even though it is true that AD has been injury prone.

He's not injury prone, the Pelicans just rest he and Jrue Holiday for a quarter of the season so they don't get hurt. They know those 20 games with the best player in the league would get them in the playoffs and they don't want that.

Same thing that makes Andrew Harrison worth drafting, I suppose.

 

[gossie21]

Solid troll, but not good enough to craft a response. Step it up. This is the final 4.

I'm confused. Craft a response to what exactly?

 

[GonzoCat90]

I'd like for catsfan to chime in and tell us who he plays to start at shooting guard for the 20 games per year that Beal misses.

Just blown away that so many are willing to ignore concrete statistical trends.

You might as well draft a guy who averaged 11 points per game for the last six years and argue that he'll give you 24.

We see points, rebounds, assists, etc and notice the remarkable consistency unless a guy loses minutes or something and expect that to continue, but it's a total coincidence that will be completely different as guys approach 30 years old if they've been injured every season.

 

[GonzoCat90]

I'm confused. Craft a response to what exactly?

That Davis is good for 7 healthy years and is the best player on either team. Kawhi is the third best player in the league, at worst. Except on Rafters.

 

[gossie21]

That Davis is good for 7 healthy years and is the best player on either team. Kawhi is the third best player in the league, at worst. Except on Rafters.

Then you should be very happy that Kawhi's on your roster. I like Davis better.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Then you should be very happy that Kawhi's on your roster. I like Davis better.

What other inferior players do you prefer to the best two-way guy in the league? And do they play 60 games and then wrap themselves in bubble wrap instead of going to the NBA finals?

 

[gossie21]

What other inferior players do you prefer to the best two-way guy in the league? And do they play 60 games and then wrap themselves in bubble wrap instead of going to the NBA finals?

No need to be salty. You got the 2010 MWC runner-up Player of the Year. You should be very pleased with that.

 

[Aike]

Yeah, Beal played 77 games last year and AD 75. Both trending up at the right time.

I still haven't voted, btw. How close is it?

 

[catsfan3523]

I don't like my depth much behind Beal but it's just the way the draft played out. Beverly or Smith could easily slide in behind him and play backup minutes.

Anthony Davis has been hurt but it's not major injuries. He got hurt a lot early on in his career because he was the only player they had worth anything and he was trying so hard to carry that team.

You can question my injuries and depth at SG but really who does Gonzo have that's going to score outside of Kawhi? Draymond is a good fit for the Golden State style team but I don't see this being that type of team. Paul is still good but he's not going to be a high level player for 7 years. I really feel like there's anyone on his team that will be able to guard Davis or Irving. Turner is a good up and coming big and a perfect fit for today's NBA.

 

[GonzoCat90]

I don't like my depth much behind Beal but it's just the way the draft played out. Beverly or Smith could easily slide in behind him and play backup minutes.

Anthony Davis has been hurt but it's not major injuries. He got hurt a lot early on in his career because he was the only player they had worth anything and he was trying so hard to carry that team.

You can question my injuries and depth at SG but really who does Gonzo have that's going to score outside of Kawhi? Draymond is a good fit for the Golden State style team but I don't see this being that type of team. Paul is still good but he's not going to be a high level player for 7 years. I really feel like there's anyone on his team that will be able to guard Davis or Irving. Turner is a good up and coming big and a perfect fit for today's NBA.

My PF was DPOY and Paul was first team all defense. I also have Avery Bradley and Kawhi. There's literally no players in the league better equipped to guard Davis and Kyrie, assuming they're not being held out of the games for precautionary reasons.

Who is going to initiate your offense? There's no LeBron to carry the load for Kyrie and there's no Wall to set the table for Beal.

There's not a single facilitator on your roster. It's a cute collection of names but it's not a team.

Though I'm glad you acknowledge your lack of depth. Thankfully your guys always stay healthy and you won't need it.

Better yet, who is going to guard Chris Paul? Kyrie is a turnstile. In a league with Steph, Westbrook, CP3, Wall, Lillard, IT, Lowry, Conley, etc, you have a guy who plays no D. And now you're asking him to exert even more energy by being the facilitator, so that D effort isn't going to improve.

But I'm sure his tendency to miss games will go away when asking him to do triple the work he's ever done.

 

[catsfan3523]

Your DPOY has never been able to stop Davis. It' not a good matchup for him at all. Green is a 6-6 PF who can't guard Davis. Davis has averaged 25-13 against the warriors throughout his career.

Kawhi and Bradley are good defenders but neither one of them can guard Davis. Paul isn't quick enough any more to keep up with Irving and he's not going to be the same player of the next 7 years.

You can throw depth or injuries at me all you want but honestly who on your team is capable of scoring besides Kawhi?