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Overall Tournament Odds 2024 - Aike’s Model

Here’s what I have for overall championship odds, based on a blend between my overall and recent models:

1. UCONN 14.19%
2. Auburn 9.70%
3. Houston 9.62%
4. Arizona 9.26%
5. Tennessee 7.06%
6. Iowa St 6.40%
7. Purdue 5.54%
8. Kentucky 3.80%
9. Marquette 3.44%
10. Creighton 2.94%
11. Duke 2.86%
12. UNC 2.6603%
13. Gonzaga 2.6601%
14. Alabama 2.13%
15. St Mary’s 1.83%
16. BYU 1.72%
17. Baylor 1.68%
18. Kansas 1.66% (injury not considered)
19. Texas 1.31%
20. TCU 1.09%
21. Michigan St. 1.05%
22. Wisconsin 0.83%
23. Colorado 0.81%
24. Mississippi St 0.77%
25. Texas Tech 0.64%
26. Nebraska 0.57%
27. Florida 0.50%
28. New Mexico 0.40%
29. FAU 0.39%
30. Illinois 0.35%
31. San Diego St 0.29%
32. Clemson 0.27%
33. Oregon 0.26%
34. Washington St 0.18%
35. Northwestern 0.17%
36. Drake 0.17%
37. Dayton 0.16%
38. James Madison 0.15%
39. Nevada 0.122%
40. NC St 0.118%
41. Colorado St 0.11%
42. South Carolina 0.03%
43. Duquesne 0.024%
44. S Dakota St 0.020%
45. Utah St 0.018%
46. McNeese 0.017%
47. Texas A&M 0.012%
48. Grand Canyon 0.0118%
49. College of Charleston 0.01%

All other teams’ odds round to zero.

Knowledge Doesn't Equal Good Picks

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

Basketball BY THE NUMBERS: Previewing UK vs. Oakland

BY THE NUMBERS: Previewing UK vs. Oakland​

Kentucky freshman guard Rob Dillingham took a shot during the Wildcats' open practice session on Wednesday at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh.


Kentucky freshman guard Rob Dillingham took a shot during the Wildcats' open practice session on Wednesday at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. (Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports)

Jeff Drummond • CatsIllustrated
Managing Editor Edit
@JDrumUK

As Kentucky begins its NCAA Tournament path on Thursday in Pittsburgh, we take a look at some of the intriguing numbers behind the matchup between the third-seeded Wildcats and the 14-seed Oakland Golden Grizzlies...​


1st - Meeting in history between Kentucky and Oakland on the hardwood. The Golden Grizzlies ascended to the D-I ranks in the 1999-2000 season and are the champions of the Horizon League.

4th - Trip to the NCAA Tournament by Oakland. UK is making an NCAA-record 61st appearance.

5th - Team, Kentucky, that Oakland will have faced in the NCAA field of 68. The Grizzlies previously lost to Michigan State (79-62), Illinois (64-53), Drake (85-77), and Dayton (91-67). They also faced Ohio State and Xavier, losing 79-73 to the Buckeyes but defeating the Musketeers 78-76.

8 - Two-point field goal attempts by Oakland guard Jack Gohlke this season. He has taken 327 shots from beyond the 3-point arc.

32-11 - Kentucky's NCAA Tournament record under head coach John Calipari.

38 - Career-high points for Oakland senior forward Trey Townsend in the Grizzlies' Horizon League championship win over Milwaukee. He was the tournament MVP to go along with his league Player of the Year honors.

57th - All-American in UK program history, senior guard Antonio Reeves, who was honored by The Sporting News and the USBWA.

75.8% - Oakland ranks among the nation's Top 50 in free-throw shooting percentage.

137 - Oakland's national rank in the Ken Pomeroy efficiency ratings. The Grizzlies are 133rd on offense and 166th on defense. The closest SEC comparison to Oakland was Missouri (151) which went winless in league play and lost 19 straight to close the season.

307th - Pace of play ranking for the Grizzlies, who average almost 19 seconds per possession, one of the slowest figures in the nation. Kentucky is one of the fastest-tempo teams in the country at 21st.

318 - Three-pointers by the Wildcats this season are the second-most in program history going into the NCAA Tournament.

412 - Area code for Pittsburgh, Pa., which is home to UK players Adou Thiero and Tre Mitchell, UK head coach John Calipari, and the college home of UK assistant coach Orlando Antigua, who played for the Pitt Panthers.

552 - Combined 3-point attempts by Oakland guards Jack Gohlke and Blake Lampman this season. By comparison, UK's top three of Antonio Reeves, Reed Sheppard, and Rob Dillingham have a combined 458.

1,553 - Combined college wins for head coaches John Calipari (855) and Greg Kampe (698). They have a combined 72 years on the sidelines as head coaches.

1-2-3-4-5 - Kentucky's national rank in 3-point shooting percentage (41.2), scoring average (89.4), blocked shots per game (6.3), fastbreak points (15.7), and field goal percentage (49.7).

They Call Me Goose....

So I think some of you know I'm good friends with Jack Givens and he invited me to a book signing he had in Louisville yesterday

There were a ton of people there including, Mark Krebs, Dave Baker, Bobby Perry, etc.....

But the reason I'm posting is to tell you about the funny story he told when they were freshman and playing IU early in the season......Jack said he had a breakaway on one play and thought "man, I'm gonna hammer this one".....Well he said Scott May came out of nowhere and blocked it all the way back to nearly halfcourt

And on the way back down court May told him "Boy, don't be bringing that weak sh*t in here" LOL!

Just thought y'all would like to hear...
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