Knowledge Doesn't Equal Good Picks

[IL Wildcat]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

 

[Creed Bratton]

My wife won a bracket challenge once by picking which mascot would win in a fight. So you are right that sometimes it's just random.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

Yeah picking games I would probably be better just drawing straws, throwing darts. Remember a verified perfect bracket earns you 1 billion from Buffet.

 

[mebeblue2]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) win the contest pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

i have filled brackets out for decades
my only constant is that i hit around 75% every year

 

[IL Wildcat]

i have filled brackets out for decades
my only constant is that i hit around 75% every year

75% isn't bad, especially if you can get the ones who get deeper into the tournament.

 

[Smashcat]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

It's tough. I'm not even filling out a secret bracket for myself this year after watching conference tournament week. lol

 

[WeWant9]

The more college bball you watch, the more you second guess your picks- at least for me.

 

[WildcatNC]

I usually outperformed most at work consistently. Which means I finished in the top 5-10 way more than anyone else.

I only won 1 time though and the winners were almost always like you say, just guessing or picking nonsense. Most of the other top 10 too. 😄

 

[catben]

Picking the correct first round winners are where these bracket contests are won. And since the transfer portal era is here, it has become even HARDER to pick the first 2 rounds. It used to be that the teams with the best coaches and the most talent were reliable predictors of early winners, not so much anymore.

But, the teams with the best guards and at least ONE comparable Big are STILL most likely to win in these early games.

This is my favorite AND least favorite time of year!! When UK advances it is AWESOME!!! When we lose early, it SUCKS!!!

 

[kennyskywalker34]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

I correctly picked all 4 final 4 teams. The championship game and the champion. One year. I did horrible every other year I filled out a bracket.
1996. I picked it all correct. Even picked UCLA first rd upset.
UK naturally I picked. I picked Mississippi st. And UMass for one reason. I said if they were good enough to beat that Kentucky team they were good enough to make the final 4.
Syracuse was a flat out luck pick.
For whatever reason I just couldn't see Miss. St. In the final. So I went with Syracuse.
I won the work pool. Might have been 75 dollars if I remember right.

 

[IL Wildcat]

I correctly picked all 4 final 4 teams. The championship game and the champion. One year. I did horrible every other year I filled out a bracket.
1996. I picked it all correct. Even picked UCLA first rd upset.
UK naturally I picked. I picked Mississippi st. And UMass for one reason. I said if they were good enough to beat that Kentucky team they were good enough to make the final 4.
Syracuse was a flat out luck pick.
For whatever reason I just couldn't see Miss. St. In the final. So I went with Syracuse.
I won the work pool. Might have been 75 dollars if I remember right.

Yeah, I've won a couple times in 30+ years. Every once in a while, my knowledge helps, But mostly, it doesn't help much at all.

 

[MidseasonTweak]

One of my brackets I assigned a side of a coin to each team for each match up and flipped the coin to determine who won. Will be fun to see how that does compared to my thoughtful brackets

 

[IL Wildcat]

I usually outperformed most at work consistently. Which means I finished in the top 5-10 way more than anyone else.

I only won 1 time though and the winners were almost always like you say, just guessing or picking nonsense. Most of the other top 10 too. 😄

Yep, this is very accurate for me as well. I'm usually in the top 10 on making picks but rarely win. The winner usually made picks that seemed completely idiotic to me. Haha!

 

[IL Wildcat]

One of my brackets I assigned a side of a coin to each team for each match up and flipped the coin to determine who won. Will be fun to see how that does compared to my thoughtful brackets

You should definitely keep us updated on how that turns out.

 

[mebeblue2]

75% isn't bad, especially if you can get the ones who get deeper into the tournament.

it is getting harder to do brackets
there is a lot of parity now with 25 year old men using the covid year, some also have a medical year
i heard that a couple of players this year are getting their AARP letters

 

[Cold Stout Beer]

First time in forever I didn't do a single bracket. Hate the frustation from the first two days. Allows me to root for every single team I want to lose, to lose.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

Two years ago, I was in the contest and the guy that eventually won had picked Kansas. He had Kentucky going out early and he was mouthing off at me about having Kentucky going so far. So, I asked him in front of the group online, What during the Kentucky beat down of Kansas on their home floor made you think that Kansas was a national championship team? His response was he didn't even watch college basketball and had no idea Kentucky had played Kansas.

 

[IL Wildcat]

it is getting harder to do brackets
there is a lot of parity now with 25 year old men using the covid year, some also have a medical year
i heard that a couple of players this year are getting their AARP letters

This is true, no doubt. There was a time, back in the 80s and 90s especially, when you could pretty well predict the top teams from the top conferences were gonna do very well. There were always occasional upsets, but largely the favorites won the games, especially the early games. But transfer portal and the extra covid year has made this season more wide open than I can remember. The role players on these "lesser" teams are 5th and 6th year seniors, as you say, 23, 24, or even 25 years old. It's not the same as it once was.

 

[lsb34m3]

College basketball is terribly unpredictable now. The assumption that the lower seeded teams are not good is crazy. You won’t need a team of superstars to win. It takes a few solid players and one good one to get hot. Everyone can be beat. The gap has narrowed so significantly that there are no more guaranteed wins. None. Yes. It both teams play their best the more talented teams will win 9/10 but everyone has talent. The 3 point line was the start of it and then the rise of foreign basketball and their move into college and AAU and “basketball academies” came. It’s just evolved into a never ending cycle of change. And add gambling to that and the unreal expectations of fans and their antiquated ideas. So trying to pick a winner is a crap shoot at best. We can all cross our fingers and hope the teams we choose get hot and confident and roll through. I’m hoping it’s Kentucky. Good luck to all.

 

[IL Wildcat]

First time in forever I didn't do a single bracket. Hate the frustation from the first two days. Allows me to root for every single team I want to lose, to lose.

Yeah, I try to pick with my head instead of my heart, but that doesn't always work. And then when a team I really WANTED to win actually wins (though I picked against them using my head) I get irritated with myself. Happens nearly every year.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

My mother won a $25K bracket contest one year. She hadn’t watched one college basketball game all season, and probably not one game for years. She just randomly picked teams. She knew nothing. It was the year Bryce Drew hit the shot for Valpo. She was the only person in the contest who picked that game. Crazy but true.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

I know a girl at my office who picked teams in her bracket a couple of years ago based on how close they the team was to a McDonald’s and she won the bracket pool that way

 

[IL Wildcat]

My mother won a $25K bracket contest one year. She hadn’t watched one college basketball game all season, and probably not one game for years. She just randomly picked teams. She knew nothing. It was the year Bryce Drew hit the shot for Valpo. She was the only person in the contest who picked that game. Crazy but true.

That's awesome! And it is not surprising, really, at least not in my experience. Often, the less you know, the better. I "made" my wife make her picks this morning, just for kicks. She said "I don't know anything about these teams. Why am I doing this?" I said, "Because you'll probably win the contest and you'll have fun doing it!" She started out looking at a couple sites talking about the matchups but she eventually just went random. She'll probably win.

 

[Coach Marrow]

1s and 2s typically win first game. I use Kenpom rankings to help with 8/9 matchups. Michigan St and SDSU usually win first game. Purdue loses early. Use your imagination for the rest.

 

[catben]

One thing I do is pick the teams I like the LEAST to advance. That way I'm happy either way!! I try not to pick UK to go all the way so if they don't it isn't a double whammy.

So this year I have U Conn(can't stand them), UNC(same), Duke(loathe). UT(same).😁😁😁

 

[Fox2monk]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

I know it’s crazy.

 

[know1]

This works out well for me. I basically watched ZERO basketball this year outside of UK games. So I have very little knowledge. Maybe that helps my chances.

 

[katwest]

You would think an educated guess gives you an advantage and in some cases it does. In March though the madness happens, you can't just pick the favorites. In a company wide pot some little old lady that knows nothing about it has about as good a chance as anybody. You can take yourself out of a whole bracket by picking the favorites or upsets, it's crazy.

 

[jayhovah]

I’m 45 years old and have picked the Kentucky Wildcats to cut down the nets every year since I knew how to write.

Last year I picked UConn and won my office bracket contest for the first time.

This year? Back to the basics! My National champion is the Kentucky Wildcats!!!

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

It's a damned embarassing situation....I actually completed a bracket this year where I flipped a coin for each game just to see how that will play against my thought out bracket. I'm thinking I have to finish better than the random bracket, as it has Clemson beating Marquette for the title; with Auburn and Colorado St. completing the Final 4.

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

One of my brackets I assigned a side of a coin to each team for each match up and flipped the coin to determine who won. Will be fun to see how that does compared to my thoughtful brackets

Same...see above post

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

First time in forever I didn't do a single bracket. Hate the frustation from the first two days. Allows me to root for every single team I want to lose, to lose.

That's kind of how I fill out my brackets; usually pick losers based on what would help UK advance...might be why I'm so good at it

 

[AmericanDragon]

I don't really know anything about women's basketball and one year on ESPN I was tied for the lead after the Sweet 16 because I had gotten either every game or all but one game right. My bracket fell apart from there though.

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

Closest I ever came to winning a bracket was 2004. If Ga Tech had knocked off UConn in the final I would've pocketed $1,700. I didn't even have Tech in the Finals, but had UK winning it all and the dude that beat me had UConn winning it all. So I had the lead going into Monday, but no luck. It solidified my dislike of connecticut even before the '11 and '14 games. Now they're up there w/ dook/unc as teams I hate and actively root against in any game they're in.

 

[STL_Cat]

The lady that won my work pool last year didn't watch a single college basketball game all season long.

 

[catfaninsc]

Yeah picking games I would probably be better just drawing straws, throwing darts. Remember a verified perfect bracket earns you 1 billion from Buffet.

• Odds of a perfect bracket..
  
  
• 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (if you just guess or flip a coin)
• or
• 1 in 120.2 billion (if you know a little something about basketball)

 

[MegaBlue05]

My wife won a bracket challenge once by picking which mascot would win in a fight. So you are right that sometimes it's just random.

Mine once did the same picking by which uniform color she liked best. She has zero knowledge of sports period and beat dozens of wannabe ESPN analysts.

 

[EliteBlue]

I've been running some kind of March Madness contest every year for probably 30+ years now. I'm sure many of you do the same, especially when UK is pretty good or at least has a chance to win some games. I follow college basketball closely all season and have a fairly good knowledge of most of the teams in the field every year. I look at stats and matchups, common opponents, top players, who's playing well and who is in decline, and so on. I keep KenPom, Sagarin, and Massey ratings on my web browser and phone all the time this time of year. I try to educate myself instead of just randomly picking. I listen to these "experts" on ESPN and CBS, the people who are paid to know everything about the sport, and they'll tell you who they've picked and why. Their picks all seem to make logical sense based on relevant information.

But here is what I have found. When it comes to making picks, especially over the last 15-20 years, knowing the game, the coaches, the players, and the teams means very little. In nearly every recent season, the winners of my contests have been people who rarely watch any college basketball until March. In fact, one year when I was living out in Ft. Worth (late 90s) and working in an office call center, the girl who won our contest picked the winners based on things like school colors, school mascots, states and teams she had heard of, and which school names she liked better. More recently, the men in my contests who watch college basketball have lost to some of the ladies in our family and group (who don't even care about it other than getting a laugh out of possibly winning and beating the men) pretty much every season. It cracks me up. They don't know anything about the teams. All this to say, good luck folks. It's always fun to make picks, but I already know I'm gonna miss a bunch! I know too much! 🤣

It leads to overthinking.

Reality is if you take kenpom/sagarin/aikes and create an average ranking of the 3 combined; Then go strictly off the metrics until the E8 at least, if not the F4. At that point you can use a little eye test in it too.

You’ll typically finish top 3 doing that. My only exception is giving benefit of doubt to Kentucky if we are less than 10 spots behind someone in a matchup bc my heart wants us to win

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

The lady that won my work pool last year didn't watch a single college basketball game all season long.

People like that shouldn't even be allowed to fill out a bracket

 

[MegaBlue05]

People like that shouldn't even be allowed to fill out a bracket

Why?

I think it’s funny when they beat self-proclaimed “experts”