Overall Tournament Odds 2024 - Aike’s Model

[Aike]

Here’s what I have for overall championship odds, based on a blend between my overall and recent models:

1. UCONN 14.19%
2. Auburn 9.70%
3. Houston 9.62%
4. Arizona 9.26%
5. Tennessee 7.06%
6. Iowa St 6.40%
7. Purdue 5.54%
8. Kentucky 3.80%
9. Marquette 3.44%
10. Creighton 2.94%
11. Duke 2.86%
12. UNC 2.6603%
13. Gonzaga 2.6601%
14. Alabama 2.13%
15. St Mary’s 1.83%
16. BYU 1.72%
17. Baylor 1.68%
18. Kansas 1.66% (injury not considered)
19. Texas 1.31%
20. TCU 1.09%
21. Michigan St. 1.05%
22. Wisconsin 0.83%
23. Colorado 0.81%
24. Mississippi St 0.77%
25. Texas Tech 0.64%
26. Nebraska 0.57%
27. Florida 0.50%
28. New Mexico 0.40%
29. FAU 0.39%
30. Illinois 0.35%
31. San Diego St 0.29%
32. Clemson 0.27%
33. Oregon 0.26%
34. Washington St 0.18%
35. Northwestern 0.17%
36. Drake 0.17%
37. Dayton 0.16%
38. James Madison 0.15%
39. Nevada 0.122%
40. NC St 0.118%
41. Colorado St 0.11%
42. South Carolina 0.03%
43. Duquesne 0.024%
44. S Dakota St 0.020%
45. Utah St 0.018%
46. McNeese 0.017%
47. Texas A&M 0.012%
48. Grand Canyon 0.0118%
49. College of Charleston 0.01%

All other teams’ odds round to zero.

 

[IbnSaran]

Do you have a site where you publish your metrics? our pool at work has a $500 dollar prize and I want to win it this year.

 

[WeWant9]

That potential UConn vs Auburn match up could be real fun.

 

[Aike]

Do you have a site where you publish your metrics? our pool at work has a $500 dollar prize and I want to win it this year.

I have a site but I haven’t been publishing this season.

 

[IbnSaran]

Do you have any upset recommendations based on your metrics?

 

[Aike]

Do you have any upset recommendations based on your metrics?

I haven’t even filled out a bracket yet, but if you take the list and fill out a bracket with it you should be able to see some good potential ones.

 

[ukfan1622]

Aike, I used your model to help fill out my bracket. Yet somehow I still came up with UK winning it all.
But I'll still blame you if my bracket sucks.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Do you have a site where you publish your metrics? our pool at work has a $500 dollar prize and I want to win it this year.

Pick Arizona

 

[Aike]

Aike, I used your model to help fill out my bracket. Yet somehow I still came up with UK winning it all.
But I'll still blame you if my bracket sucks.

As you should.

 

[Aike]

Pick Arizona

They are a good “dark horse” pick. Everyone will pick UCONN, as they probably should. But there’s an 86% chance they don’t win it, as I see it.

 

[gharding07]

Do you have a site where you publish your metrics? our pool at work has a $500 dollar prize and I want to win it this year.

Check out RickRunGood on YouTube. Love his leverage pick bracket based on data. He's predicted the winner 3 of the last 4 years, doesn't watch a minute of basketball.

 

[ukcatz12]

Aike, I used your model to help fill out my bracket. Yet somehow I still came up with UK winning it all.
But I'll still blame you if my bracket sucks.

If it’s a bracket for money I think it’s only fair that @Aike gives you your money back if you don’t win.

 

[Aike]

Check out RickRunGood on YouTube. Love his leverage pick bracket based on data. He's predicted the winner 3 of the last 4 years, doesn't watch a minute of basketball.

Well I don’t use data, I just ask my dog what he thinks. So his is probably better.

 

[bucsrule8872]

The East seems to be the most interesting region. UConn and Auburn will likely meet in the Sweet Sixteen with the winner likely facing Iowa St. in the Elite Eight. That’s 3 of your top 6. Whoever comes out the East likely earned it.

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

Here’s what I have for overall championship odds, based on a blend between my overall and recent models:

1. UCONN 14.19%
2. Auburn 9.70%
3. Houston 9.62%
4. Arizona 9.26%
5. Tennessee 7.06%
6. Iowa St 6.40%
7. Purdue 5.54%
8. Kentucky 3.80%
9. Marquette 3.44%
10. Creighton 2.94%
11. Duke 2.86%
12. UNC 2.6603%
13. Gonzaga 2.6601%
14. Alabama 2.13%
15. St Mary’s 1.83%
16. BYU 1.72%
17. Baylor 1.68%
18. Kansas 1.66% (injury not considered)
19. Texas 1.31%
20. TCU 1.09%
21. Michigan St. 1.05%
22. Wisconsin 0.83%
23. Colorado 0.81%
24. Mississippi St 0.77%
25. Texas Tech 0.64%
26. Nebraska 0.57%
27. Florida 0.50%
28. New Mexico 0.40%
29. FAU 0.39%
30. Illinois 0.35%
31. San Diego St 0.29%
32. Clemson 0.27%
33. Oregon 0.26%
34. Washington St 0.18%
35. Northwestern 0.17%
36. Drake 0.17%
37. Dayton 0.16%
38. James Madison 0.15%
39. Nevada 0.122%
40. NC St 0.118%
41. Colorado St 0.11%
42. South Carolina 0.03%
43. Duquesne 0.024%
44. S Dakota St 0.020%
45. Utah St 0.018%
46. McNeese 0.017%
47. Texas A&M 0.012%
48. Grand Canyon 0.0118%
49. College of Charleston 0.01%

All other teams’ odds round to zero.

Houston presents a fairly big final 4 roadblock, assuming they're healthy. I keep hearing folks alluding to their health, but haven't really heard any specifics about why there is this speculation?

 

[TFCats11]

In your model, Uk has wins against 2 teams in the top 7, with UK being the 8th… Any other team that can claim that?

 

[BBNinSC]

Houston presents a fairly big final 4 roadblock, assuming they're healthy. I keep hearing folks alluding to their health, but haven't really heard any specifics about why there is this speculation?

I would think we would lose a rock fight to them or blow them out.

 

[HagginHall1999]

That potential UConn vs Auburn match up could be real fun.

I don't see UConn making it out of that game tbh.

I am just not as sold on them as most as heavy favorite.

 

[Aike]

The East seems to be the most interesting region. UConn and Auburn will likely meet in the Sweet Sixteen with the winner likely facing Iowa St. in the Elite Eight. That’s 3 of your top 6. Whoever comes out the East likely earned it.

Same thing happened last year. I think 4 of my top 10 were in UCONN’s region. Saw what happened there.

 

[Aike]

I don't see UConn making it out of that game tbh.

I am just not as sold on them as most as heavy favorite.

I am very comfortable calling UCONN the best team. I had them 4th going in last year, but they were the only top team without some issue (Bill Self heart attack, injuries, etc.). They have been better this year. Much more consistent.

That being said, I still have an 86% chance that the field wins. Auburn would be the most likely stumbling block, I agree. I just don’t trust Auburn after the way we picked them apart at their place. I don’t think they have championship caliber guards. But that’s why they play the games.

 

[Aike]

I would think we would lose a rock fight to them or blow them out.

I personally like that it would be an Elite Eight game with them. If they can lose to Iowa St on a quick turnaround, they can lose to us on a quick turnaround. I wouldn’t love the idea of going into that game after they’d rested and prepped for us all week.

 

[Aike]

Check out RickRunGood on YouTube. Love his leverage pick bracket based on data. He's predicted the winner 3 of the last 4 years, doesn't watch a minute of basketball.

Kidding aside, thanks for sharing the link. Great strategy for trying to win a large pool.

He is basically taking some model like mine and comparing it to public perception to find the undervalued teams, then filling out his bracket based on most undervalued teams.

Gives you a great chance to do well if the bracket blows up, and you basically can’t win a large bracket anyway unless you pick the winner correctly.

 

[Aike]

In your model, Uk has wins against 2 teams in the top 7, with UK being the 8th… Any other team that can claim that?

Purdue beat Tennessee and Arizona. Also beat Marquette and Gonzaga.

 

[Aike]

Houston presents a fairly big final 4 roadblock, assuming they're healthy. I keep hearing folks alluding to their health, but haven't really heard any specifics about why there is this speculation?

J’wan Roberts got hurt…not sure how badly. Not sure what else.