First of all, we don't know that they want to take and hold Kyiv, we assume thats the plan. Second, when the US entered Baghdad we didn't have a 10:1 ratio, and that took over 35 days against a lesser foe than Ukraine.
Are you suggesting the US and Russia fight wars the same way? This is exactly how Russia operates, they bombard cities, it may be barbaric but it's what they do, and Ukraine can't stop them currently. If you can't stop your enemy from doing what they've historically done, you are losing militarily.
Russia wants the Eastern portion of Ukraine, that doesn't include Kyiv. What they're doing now is trying to bring Kyiv to Russia's terms, will they be able to is the question.
Bill, you may have a point. Maybe Putin's entire plan was to attack Ukraine, shell Kyiv, and negotiate for a small sliver of land in Western Ukraine. I hear there is a summer cottage there that gets shade in the morning hours. Probably a wonderful place for Vladimir to have his coffee. Your assessment sounds well reasoned. Tank your economy, have the world consider you a pariah, destroy your reputation, destroy your military reputation, more than likely get yourself overthrown and replaced, but hey a corner lot with a lake view doesn't come along very often...
Or, since intelligence assessments are done according to level of confidence, maybe we can find one we're a little more confident in. Just maybe.
The whole world knows Putin went into Ukraine to overthrow the government and install his own puppet government. There is a high degree of confidence to that assessment. In order to accomplish that, you must take the capitol because that's where the government you intend to overthrow resides. The literal seat of power, if you will.
So, now that we've roundly mocked your ideas and completely discredited your ability to assess intelligence or even understand the basic premise of what intelligence estimates are, let us turn to what military engagements are.
Notice you substituted Ukraine having to stop Russia from doing what they want to do as opposed to Russia achieving their military objectives because they are not the same, certainly in terms of how we establish what winning is.
You contend that since Ukraine cannot stop Russia from bombing Kyiv that Russia is winning? OK, by that standard you may want to let the British know they lost WWII because the Germans dropped bombs on London for 8 months in WWII, not a couple weeks. They will be very disappointed that Bill, our newest intelligence analyst, has calculated that if you let somebody set off a bottle rocket on the street corner that you lose the war since you didn't stop them.
Ah, there's a whole lot more to "winning" than that, Bill.
Good try, though. Not really.