You're not making much sense. First, you say "something similar will happen" which would imply that UNC*** will receive a postseason ban, vacating victories, reduction of scholarships, show cause on a coach etc...as outlined below, but you also say it isn't "likely to happen". Care to expound?
NCAA hits UNC football with probation, scholarship losses, post-season ban
After a 16-month investigation, the NCAA announced its sanctions regarding the UNC football program. The Tar Heels had imposed their own sanctions, including vacating all 16 of its 2008 and 2009 football victories, a nine-scholarship reduction over the next three academic years, a $50,000 fine and two years probation.
But note that UNC did NOT self-impose a bowl ban, as the Miami Hurricanes did this past November (the only self-imposed step the Canes have taken thus far in the Nevin Shapirocase), and the NCAA obviously didn't agree with UNC's decision on that.
The NCAA Comittee on Infractions hit UNC with
* Three years' probation from March 12, 2012 through March 11, 2015
* A reduction of 15 scholarships over those three years
* Postseason ban for the 2012 football season.
* A three-year show-cause penalty for former assistant coach John Blake