B. Roberts: Is UK doubling down on Freshmen a major mistake ?
- Thread starter JST390-2
- Start date
You didn’t list any criteria or guidelines. You asked a simple question and I answered it. If you wanted specific answers, you should have asked a more specific question.
You set the criteria in post 70:
"I’m very against Cal, but I agree with getting more high school kids. Transfers just haven’t done it and likely won’t."
The players aren't the problem, that’s my point. Right now, Cal is a huge mess, he’s the old guy that thinks his stuff still works and he never stops trying to prove it.
The fact that Reid Travis and Oscar didn’t win anything significant, is not their fault, they didn't come here and shit the bed. The coach has shit the bed more times than not when the heat was at it's hottest.
One could say PJ Washington (free throws) shit the bed in 18 and 19 and Hagans (massive turnovers) put the final nail in the 2019 coffin, but those guys weren't transfers, they were 1 and 2 years out of HS.
High school kids aren't going to win anything in today’s game, they had a shot in the early to mid 2010's, but it ain't happening now.
I talked about UK players. You went and listed a bunch of guys from other teams. So you didn’t follow my set criteria. Bottom line is we do have a history of high school players leading us deep in march, although not recent. That drop off in recent years coincides with the increase in upper class transfers.
Zero success with those guys…
But he will stick around and develop under the King of Transfers, who does a poor job of developing the few guys who stick around more than one year.
You’re blaming the transfers for coming up short, but you're giving the freshmen all the credit for what happened in 2011, 12 and 14. You aren't blaming the freshmen for what happened in '10, '13, '16, '18, '21, '22 and '23.
There is a common denominator and it isn't the players.
I gave examples of transfers that helped their teams win titles. It’s a UK/Cal issue, not a player issue.
I still say Cal isnt doubling down on freshmen, he's scrambling for anything he can get. They missed on the portal guys they wanted and the ones left that they MIGHT be able to get arent any more capable than the freshmen in their opinion so you go for what is easier to obtain and that's freshmen.
Its like getting turned down by the first 8 pretty girls you ask to the senior prom so instead of lowering your standards to the next level, you drop down to the freshman class and ask some lookers there.
and then the headline is "TankedCat double downs on the fat girls"
I dislike Cal just like the next guy. Bottom line is he has won with freshmen previously. He’s never won with transfers. So I’m not saying we’ll wil with freshmen, but Cals record shows his chances increase.
has he ever won with a freshmen team and returning sophs that got next to no minutes the year before?
I guess you could argue 2014 , but that team had WCS and Pothress, and even then that is *once* in 12 years
He won what with freshmen? Are you saying we had normal freshmen on that 2012 team and Miller, Jones and Lamb had nothing to do with it?
So, AD and MKG won a title and Oscar lost to St Peters? Am I doing it right?
So, in that loss to St Peters, it was Oscar that failed? Not Tyty, it was all Oscar???
In 20/21, it wasn't Boston and Devin Askew that failed, nope, it was Mintz, Sarr and Toppin, is that right?
The bottom line is, you aren't winning shit with "freshmen", but if you're talking about generational and/or transcendent freshmen… .well, that’s a different discussion. Problem is, how often does Cal get a generational or Transcendent high school kid? Haven't seen one at UK since Fox.
When it comes to college basketball, experience is what wins at this point in time. We’re a long way from 2012.
The fact that we literally went ofer in the portal is truly concerning. We have got one transfer since all this started and he might leave. Whatever the pitch is it sucks and it needs to be fixed
I agree the success rate for all scenarios are awful. However the only one that has produced ZERO success are transfers.
Right now, nothing is a success under Calipari.
But I gave you a huge list of transfers that were big contrubutors to the titles their teams won and I only went back to 2018.
It proves that the players are not the issue, but I'll ask this, where is your list of freshmen that have won a title… at any program?
No, no, no, when I listed Oscar and Reid Travis, you asked "what did they win", as if this is an individually played sport. What did the freshmen win? I can.list a whole lot more transfers that simply "went on a run", I only.listed title winners over a 4 season span.
Carmello Anthony, AD and MKG, who else ya got?
I know I'm not part of the discussion you're having, but I thought I would throw in my thoughts on why I really believe that relying on freshmen is the wrong way to go. First, having really good returning players has always been the surest way to win in CBB. But the superiority of using the best transfers rather than freshmen to push a college team over the hump has been evident for the last 4 or 5 years. I think that’s because the transfer rules first got more lax with the waivers (allowing players to play right away) and then the graduate transfer rule was implemented. The flood gates were thrown wide open once the one-time transfer rule was adopted in April 2021. Combine the one-time transfer rule with NIL (which incentivized players to both transfer and remain in college longer) and I think it has become clear that the transfer portal, not high school kids, is the place to get the added pieces to make a title contender.
National champions Villanova in 2018 and Virginia in 2019 each started a transfer. The 2021 Final Four had eight transfers starting between the four teams (Baylor, Gonzaga, Houston and UCLA); and two of them — Houston and UCLA — were led in scoring by a transfer. And Baylor won it all in 2021 with a starting five consisting exclusively of juniors and seniors. Kansas won the national championship in 2022 with five starters who were each in at least their third season with the program. This season all the Final Four teams had transfers that were starters (Miami had three; San Diego State and Florida Atlantic had two; and UConn had one - guard Tristen Newton, who played his first three seasons at East Carolina), and not a single starter was a true freshman. Moreover, none of Final Four starters were ranked among the top-50 prospects nationally in their classes by 247 Sports. The highest ranked player was UConn guard Jordan Hawkins, who was ranked No. 51st in the Class of 2021. In fact, 14 of the 20 Final Four starters were not ranked among the top-100 players in their high school classes.
Kelvin Sampson recently said something to the effect that if you’re not utilizing the transfer portal you’re going to struggle to keep up. Jay Bilas has said the same thing. And right before he retired, Roy Williams said that he thought the one-time transfer rule was going to be the most significant change that's ever happened in college basketball. San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher, who recruited the “Fab Five” to Michigan, said during the tournament that the transfer portal has changed things so that building a team with returning players and transfers allows a team to really benefit from maturity and experience. He explained that "it's hard to win with [freshmen] because it takes a while for them to make the adjustment to the college game. To be a freshman and play (not start, just play) at our place, you have to be very good."
Plain and simple, I think as long as the current transfer rule & NIL remain, the failure to get the best players from the transfer portal will severely handicap a team’s chances to win a title. And trying to compete with OAD freshmen is like betting on a specific number to hit on the roulette wheel.
Just my opinion, but we haven’t been winning with mediocre veterans, so we might as well go back to elite Freshmen talent.
Besides, the slim hope of a title walked out the door when Tshiebwe announced he was staying in the draft. Reeves and a couple of transfers weren’t going to change that.
Let’s see what the young kids can do.
It’s not like we have any say in the matter.
Might as well try to stay as positive as possible. Gloom and doom isn’t going to help the situation.
Besides, the slim hope of a title walked out the door when Tshiebwe announced he was staying in the draft. Reeves and a couple of transfers weren’t going to change that.
Let’s see what the young kids can do.
It’s not like we have any say in the matter.
Might as well try to stay as positive as possible. Gloom and doom isn’t going to help the situation.
Yeah, exactly and my post a page or two back, listed all the transfers that helped win titles in 2018, 19, 21, 22 and 23. I only went back to 2018, because that's all I needed to prove my point. You can't find very many freshmen on those teams, because you have to be mentally tough to win tournament games.
We have seen bigtime freshman after bigtime freshman shit the bed when the kitchen got hot, but when you look at the teams that are winning titles, you see a bunch of juniors and seniors that were battle tested.
Since SGA. Agree with your point but once inserted into the starting lineup, which was most of the season, SGA put up better numbers than Fox, Wall and even sophomore Tyler Ulis. That team probably struggles to make the field if not for SGA.
And he's tearing it up in the NBA, but there's more than just one dynamic when it comes to any certain players stats. Fox had a deadly shooter and a great big man that he could get the ball to, SGA had to do a lot more on his own.
But still, look what happens in the tournament. How many freshmen led teams make it to the FF? If you're going to roll with freshmen, they better be legit top shelf talents.
Well, how about let’s try winning with good veterans then. Building your team on “mediocre veterans” and graduate transfers probably isn’t the best approach. But unless you’re playing in an all-freshmen league, I see no proof that trying to do so with freshmen is any better (and maybe worse). And it’s not an either/or situation. There is another way – namely cultivating/getting/keeping the best college basketball players, i.e., upperclassmen.
My belief is that “elite” freshmen were never good enough to serve as the core of the team. So, why go back to it? It was a false premise to begin with – although it stood a somewhat better chance of succeeding when there was less emphasis on and accuracy from teams' perimeter shooting
Calipari/UK either hasn’t tried or is not able to get the best players from the transfer portal. It is another false premise to claim that Calipari has done this and it just didn’t work. Everybody else, however, seems to have figured out this is the way to go today. Even a blue blood like Kansas has got with the program and is on top currently by intentionally building rosters relying on upperclassmen (including top transfers).
And theoretically addressing missing elements (e.g., consistent perimeter shooting, good defense and rebounding, reliable scoring against college players) with one dimensional or mediocre players sitting on the bench is not really addressing anything. There are no designated players in basketball. When you need a rebound or a 3pt. shot a guy can’t suddenly jump on the floor.
And I'm sorry if I'm one of those that seem to be promoting gloom and doom. That's not my intent. Because I do agree that we absolutely should enjoy college basketball or stop watching it. It is just entertainment, after all. And I understand/assume that most of us have the most fun in anticipation when we believe that UK has a good chance of being the best team in CBB during an upcoming season. Others get a lot of enjoyment from UK being declared to have the #1 recruiting class. That’s all great. Some (although they probably wouldn’t admit it even to themselves) even get a lot of enjoyment out of complaining about the coach or referees – and that’s fine too, in fact it’s a universal thing in all sports (maybe most especially MLB). So, I’m not trying to take anyone’s joy away by expressing my opinions, etc. It’s just part of my enjoying UK basketball year-round by analyzing what I think works and what does not, following recruiting approaches (high school and transfer portal), watching games, hearing the opinions of others about CBB, etc.
I have been preaching balance for years.
You need to retain some talent in order to win.
But for next season, that ship has sailed.
So I am just trying to make the best of a bad situation. A situation I have no control over.
Let’s hope these Freshmen surprise us and do well.
To me that beats giving up on them before the season starts.
Can’t wait to hear Cal talk about how young this team is all season. Not an excuse in the transfer portal era!
Dating freshmen as a senior is pretty weird if we are talking about HS. When I went to HS anyone doing that got grilled.
You've got a good attitude and way of looking at things.
I see you're still spouting your bullshit while ignoring my challenge.
I offer this again - my account against your account on your claim that UK will win the SEC. They win (regular season OR tournament) and I will delete my account.
They don't and you go away.
Quit your shilling/trolling and put some skin in the game
Let’s hope that by having 8 Freshmen and 2 Sophomores this season, it increases our chances of some retention.
We all know Wagner, Edwards, Bradshaw, and Dillingham are gone after one season, whether they do anything in college or not.
Mark those four off the board.
But if we can get the other six back, maybe we can start to develop some experienced depth. Two Juniors and four Sophomores with experience actually playing will give us some quality depth. Then we can add 2-3 5-star Freshmen superstars to the mix and maybe a portal player or two.
I know, I know, everyone who doesn’t go to the draft is going to the portal, but I have to have some hope.
We all know Wagner, Edwards, Bradshaw, and Dillingham are gone after one season, whether they do anything in college or not.
Mark those four off the board.
But if we can get the other six back, maybe we can start to develop some experienced depth. Two Juniors and four Sophomores with experience actually playing will give us some quality depth. Then we can add 2-3 5-star Freshmen superstars to the mix and maybe a portal player or two.
I know, I know, everyone who doesn’t go to the draft is going to the portal, but I have to have some hope.
Nobody has ever won a championship with all Freshmen and that includes the Fab Five
Yeah I was gonna use Sophomore but Freshman fit in better to the comparison
We are fine .. just on a serious diet !! LOL .. Cal has given up
Since that loss to Wisconsin in 2015 it was a slow decline and then we hit 2019 and that decline went super fast downhill to where we are today. It’s sad that we all see this as fans but the administration is too dumb or stupid to see it? Or maybe they just don’t want too see it because of the stupid mistake they made!
I’m not disappointed at all with Burks and Hall. Just the opposite.
So your saying none of this years freshmen are capable of the talent level of D. Fox?
Look at the projected 2024 draft. We have #s 1,6,18 and 20.
I haven’t seen them play a full game but guessing neither have you if you’re writing them off but the pro scouts have.
And I’m not arguing your point about having experience. I agree it helps.
Also I like having Reed, Adou, Hart,Ugo and Burks. That’s how you build experience for the future in-house rather than portal mercenaries. Hope to add Travis Perry and Jasper Johnson to continue that route.
It’s really hard to believe that we’re in this position. Even by Calipari standards (roster overhauls). This offseason has been one of complete & utter negligence, to this point. As bad as I’ve ever seen. It’s total madness, or incompetence, to go into a season with, essentially, zero experience & even less chemistry. Our two returning players saw very little time last season & as Roberts said in another recent article, incoming FR Justin Edwards will be our oldest player, as it stands.
Calipari, once again, allowed himself to be held hostage by his players & is left with no choice but to bring in FR projects just to fill out the roster. He did nothing while impact transfers went everywhere but here. Now, there’s nothing left & he can only hope that a serviceable grad transfer becomes available at the 11th hour. Totally unacceptable. But, I suppose this was all part of his master plan, being prepared for every possibility & all.
I think our only hope at this point is if Caliprairie switches from watching LHOP reruns to the A-Team. Maybe if he watches George Peppard long enough, he will be able to formulate a plan!
We have to stop using draft projections as an indicator to how good these kids are NOW.
The NBA drafts on potential, not what you are now.
BJB was a projected lottery pick in the summer of 2020, that didn’t pan out.
But even if Edwards has a shit year, it doesn't matter, he's still getting picked based on his future potential.
That's why this culture Cal built, is not what’s best for UK, it's what's best for future NBA millionaire's and for Cal's personal goals. He's doing it at UK's expense and so many of you guys refuse to see it.
Cal is rolling the dice this season more than he has any other year. He has gone all in with this class. Maybe he hits and beats the house but I wouldn't want to be in his shoes if it goes south. His ego, legacy and maybe coaching future are on the line.
He could feel that he has nothing to lose since he is planning to walk away sooner as opposed to later.
It's very telling that he would throw caution to the wind like this. It tells me he thinks he's king and he's untouchable. He really doen't care about UK's accomplishments, or goals, it's all about these kids that were getting drafted no matter where they went to school.
