Posted this on Rafters but thought some analytical minds on HOB might enjoy as well:
Here are some early season rays of sunshine (via Kenpom) to give the BBN a little hope for how this season plays out.
Keep in mind it’s only been 2 games but:
- UK is currently ranked 136th in 3PA/FGA. For perspective, they ranked 330th in 2023 and 351 (out of 352!!!) in 2022. No bigs has forced Cal to play 5 out and the 3’s are flying.
- UK currently ranks 22nd in defensive steal %, getting a steal on 15.4% of opponents possessions.
- UK is currently ranked 1st in TO percentage, with an average of 4.5 per game. In the same light, they rank 2nd in offensive steal %, with teams only stealing the ball on 2.2% of possessions thus far.
- Average offensive possession length is at 14.9 seconds thus far, good for 36th in the country. For comparison, UK’s average possession was over 17 seconds last year and ranked 151st at year end.
- On the defensive side, UK’s opponents possessions have lasted an average of 20.3 seconds, which ranks 355th and is the lowest in the country. In other words, UK is forcing very long possessions in which they’re having to guard for longer than any other team in the country. Their overall tempo ranks 283rd, but this is mostly due to how long the possessions have been when their opponents have the ball.
- The biggest difference from years past (due to no Oscar) is obviously offensive rebound %. UK currently ranks 215th in the country, compared to 4th in 2022 and 1st in 2023.
- Overall, UK currently sits at 12th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Kenpom has KU ranked as the #3 team in the country and UK ranked at #14. Per his model and algorithm, he has KU winning the game tomorrow night by a score of 76-72. For reference, the game lines currently sit at KU -6 (opened at KU -4.5) with the O/U at 147.5 per Draftkings. If that line moves back towards UK closer to game time, we should all feel great about our chances as that’ll mean the sharp money has come in on the Cats.
If KU is able to slow it down and turn it into a half court game, I’m not sure that UK will be able to pull it out. My thoughts are that the cats need to force 6+ steals, hit 8+ threes and score 20+ in transition to come away with a W.
With Adou playing, I feel better about UK’s chances overall. Since I’m a sucker for punishment, I’d take UK +4.5 and over 147.5. My hope is this turns into a track meet and the UK guards feast in transition all night. Regardless, this UK team is built different and is more of a 2009, 2017, 2020 type of team and less of a 2021-2023 team (thank God). They’ll probably have a few bumps from now through January but I see an elite 8 at minimum type team in March if they stay healthy.
Tweet below has the Kenpom pregame snapshot. Go Cats!!!
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