POLITICAL THREAD

[Bill Derington]

The voter turnout among 18-29 yr olds was 31%, up from 21% in the last midterm 2014, a 47.619% increase. They broke 67-32 for Democrats, one of the largest disparities in history, compared to only 54-43 Democratic in 2014 and 55-42 Democratic in 2010.

Serious question for this board: where does the GOP go from here? Their base just gets older and they're moving in the wrong direction with the youth.

The thing about youth is they grow up, have kids, careers and realize the idealism of their youth isn’t reality.

 

[Dionysus444]

The thing about youth is they grow up, have kids, careers and realize the idealism of their youth isn’t reality.

Younger people do tend to lean liberal, but that tired trope in no way explains the extreme shift since Trump's election. That's why I linked the last couple midterms for comparison. Mid-fifties vs. mid-forties is a small enough margin to allow for shifts as people age keeping it competitive. Two thirds vs. one third however is a massive gaping chasm and a direct reaction to Trump's version of the party.

 

[DwayneMeighan]

A dozen Antifa members surround two guys in Philly accuse them of being white supremacists and Nazis then beat the crap out of them.

The irony is that the two guys weren't even white. One Mexican and the other Puerto Rican. Both were also Marines. And the Antifa members who were all white were yelling racial slurs at them during the beating.

Both guys were maced with bear spray then knocked to ground and kicked and stomped by a dozen people. It was so severe that one was maced so many times that he's still heproblems seeing days later.

 

[Bill Derington]

Younger people do tend to lean liberal, but that tired trope in no way explains the extreme shift since Trump's election. That's why I linked the last couple midterms for comparison. Mid-fifties vs. mid-forties is a small enough margin to allow for shifts as people age keeping it competitive. Two thirds vs. one third however is a massive gaping chasm and a direct reaction to Trump's version of the party.

Because they have been force fed that Trump was the devil on tv, Hollywood, social media, written media 24/7. Russia narrative from the start.
The Dems voted like it was a presidential election year, not a mid term.
Things are in a constant state of change, what you think now will change in 10 years, and again later. It’s human nature, you think we all weren’t in our early 20’s at one point?

The Presidents party losing seats in the mid term isn’t anything new, nevermind the shenanigans that happened in California.

 

[thabigbluenation]

The voter turnout among 18-29 yr olds was 31%, up from 21% in the last midterm 2014, a 47.619% increase. They broke 67-32 for Democrats, one of the largest disparities in history, compared to only 54-43 Democratic in 2014 and 55-42 Democratic in 2010.

Serious question for this board: where does the GOP go from here? Their base just gets older and they're moving in the wrong direction with the youth.

once you grow up and see what liberals do with all your tax dollars, you always turn conservative. for those who have jobs.

the shift of younger voters has nothing to do with Trump, it has everything to do with how they are being indoctrinated in the school systems and colleges.

seriously, why do you think liberals want open borders so damn bad?

if the illegal migration of new potential voters from our southern border were white europeans who tend to vote conservative, liberals couldn't build a wall fast enough.

 

[DwayneMeighan]

Oh well, it’s a Saturday and Sunday so it really isn’t shut down until Monday. It’ll get done

It's not a shut down anyway. 3/4 of the government has already been funded and 80% of the military border patrol etc. Only people who will be affected are non essential government employees. And they're really not affected. As soon as government reopens they will receive back pay for all work days missed.

 

[BlueThruAndThru]

Air traffic controllers and TSA workers will remain on job, but without pay.

Though workers will remain on the job, it is with the assumption that they will receive their wages retroactively rather than get their regular paycheck.

I'm flying tomorrow and am feeling pretty, pretty good about the people who keep planes from crashing into each other not getting paid on time.

Government!!

 

[DwayneMeighan]

I'm flying tomorrow and am feeling pretty, pretty good about the people who keep planes from crashing into each other not getting paid on time.

You should be more worried about the Obama administration’s hiring policies put into place at the FAA.

 

[screwduke1]

Good. He should be fired.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

Good. He should be fired.

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Blame everyone but himself.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

once you grow up and see what liberals do with all your tax dollars, you always turn conservative. for those who have jobs.

Midterm voters by age this year...

 

[DwayneMeighan]

Midterm voters by age this year...

Now show the % of each group that actually shows up to vote. 67% of 18-29 that showed up might have voted D but they only made up 13% of the electorate in '18 because the majority don't vote.

Young adults have had the worst turnout of any age group in every election since the Census began keeping track of voter-age data in 1978 for midterm races and in 1964 for presidential races.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

Now show the % of each group that actually shows up to vote. 67% of 18-29 that showed up might have voted D but they only made up 13% of the electorate in '18 because the majority don't vote.

Young adults have had the worst turnout of any age group in every election since the Census began keeping track of voter-age data in 1978 for midterm races and in 1964 for presidential races.

I can not find that data overall for the midterms. Only thing I could find was 31% of eligible people 18-29 voted.

 

[DwayneMeighan]

I can not find that data.

I just gave it to you. They only made up 13% of the electorate in '18. This talk that there's a big shift going on with Trump driving young voters to the polls in record numbers is all talk. That 13% is only up 2% from '14 where the 18-29 group made up 11% of the electorate.

Trump is portrayed as all these bad things. He's a Russian asset. A. Racist. Every name in the book. This was without a doubt the most important election of their lifetime and they barely out did the Obama years.

Bottom line is young people don't really vote. Depending on them to win elections is a losing strategy. All of the campus indoctrination and msm fear mongering isn't driving them to the polls. Turnout in the 18-29 age group has surpassed (barely) 20 percent only two times since 1986.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

I just gave it to you. They only made up %13 of the electorate in '18. This talk that there's a big shift going on with Trump driving young voters to the polls in record numbers is all talk. That 13% is only up 2% from '14 where the 18-29 group made up 11% of the electorate.

Trump is portrayed as all these bad things. He's a Russian asset. A. Racist. Every name in the book. This was without a doubt the most important election of their lifetime and they barely out did the Obama years.

Bottom line is young people don't really vote. Depending on them to win elections is a losing strategy. All of the campus indoctrination and msm fear mongering isn't driving them to the polls. Turnout in the 18-29 age group has surpassed (barely) 20 percent only two times since 1986.

My graph was to point out that the older people barely voted in favor of the Republicans, only 1% advantage for 45-64, 2% advantage for 65+, it was nowhere near that close for the Presidential election. Those are almost always strongholds for Republicans. The fact that all age groups voted more in favor for Democrats is what did the Republicans in the House this year. Trump likely won't get reelected again in 2020 if that's how it goes again for the two oldest age groups.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

2016 vs. 2018 (Democrat number on the left of each slash)
18-29: 58/28 vs. 67/32
30-49: 51/40, 58/39
50-64: 45/51, 49/50
65+: 44/53, 48/50

18-29: Democrats with a net gain of 5% in 2018 to win the age group by 35%
30-49: Democrats with a net gain of 8% in 2018 to win the age group by 19%
50-64: Democrats with a net gain of 5% in 2018 to only lost the age group by 1% after losing it by 6% in 2016
65+: Democrats with a net gain of 7% in 2017 to only lose the age group by 2% after losing it by 9% in 2016

 

[DwayneMeighan]

The fact that all age groups voted more in favor for Democrats is what did the Republicans in the House this year.

Two reasons. The president's party always loses in the House during the first midterm. Trump actually did better than expected. There wasn't a blue wave. He lost something like 38 (?)seats. The average throughout history is 35-40 seat loss. Obama loss in the 60s and I think Clinton in the 70s.

Reason two is because Americans (the ones in the middle who tend to decide elections) like divided government. They're not ideologues and feel Compromise is intended for it to work best.

Trump likely won't get reelected again in 2020 if that's how it goes again for the two oldest age groups

We shall see. Although Rs held their own and won the majority of statewide elections.

In Florida a major swing state a lot of suburban voters that voted D for congressional races still voted R for statewide races or left it blank. Maybe it was the D candidates. A socialist and an old geezer who was never in DC. Maybe they wanted divided government and more compromise. I don't know.

Also Ohio the bellwether to rule them all is now solid red.

 

[jameslee32]

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He may just as well have pulled the trigger himself.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

Two reasons. The president's party always loses in the House during the first midterm. Trump actually did better than expected. There wasn't a blue wave. He lost something like 38 (?)seats. The average throughout history is 35-40 seat loss. Obama loss in the 60s and I think Clinton in the 70s.

Reason two is because Americans (the ones in the middle who tend to decide elections) like divided government. They're not ideologues and feel Compromise is intended for it to work best.



We shall see. Although Rs held their own and won the majority of statewide elections.

In Florida a major swing state a lot of suburban voters that voted D for congressional races still voted R for statewide races. Maybe it was the D candidates. A socialist and an old geezer who was never in DC. I don't know.

Also Ohio the bellwether to rule them all is now solid red.

It was indeed a blue wave much like 2010 was a red wave.

• Largest D house game since 1974, 4th largest ever for D, and the third most by any party in 40 years
• Won the overall popular vote this year by 8.6%, the greatest ever for a minority party in a midterm election (data on that only dates back to 1942 though)
• D won by a larger margin than R won in 2010
• Democrats gained 332 seats in state legislators
• Democrats won in three states that flipped the 2016 election to Trump: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. All three governors are Democrats, won Senate races in PA and MI, and flipped five combined House seats
• 337 US congressional districts saw an increase in % of votes for a Democrat compared to only a few dozen saw an increase in % of votes for a Republican, compared to 2016
• The districts that flipped to Democrats in the House had an average shift of 21% points, and the average of all districts nationwide saw a 10% swing to the left

 

[DwayneMeighan]

It was indeed a blue wave much like 2010 was a red wave.

False. Just looked it up. They won 40 House seats total. The national average throughout history is a loss of 35-40 seats for a first term president. How is average a wave? That on top of the Rs having a record of incumbents up for reelection and retirements. The election was set up for the Ds to dominate and all they could do was average.Not to mention Rs gained Senate seats which almost never happens in a first term midterm.

That's the thing with stats. You can cherry pick them to try to support your narrative. Bottom line list as many meaningless stats you want some of which are made up like the popular vote but Ds only won 40 House seats. The average is 35-40. You're trying to talk up average.

 

[DwayneMeighan]

D won by a larger margin than R won in 2010

This is false too. Rs won 62 seats in '10. That's 22-27 more than the historical average. Ds won 40 which is the high end of the historical average. 62 > 40.

Again the historical average is a loss of 35-40 seats.

Recent 1st Term Presidential Midterms.

Reagan: House -26 Senate 0

HW Bush: House -8 Senate -1

Clinton: House -54 Senate -9

Bush: House +8 Senate +1

Obama: House -63 Senate -6

Trump: House -40 Senate +3

If you consider Trump only losing the average and gaining multiple seats in the Senate a blue wave election then you are desperate.

Democrats picking up 40 seats in the House is in line with historical averages.

But Republicans picking up seats in the Senate runs completely *against* historical precedent.

Net = Trump's party outperformed historical trends even though his approval numbers are supposedly in the dumps and he's supposedly one the most hated presidents ever.

 

[Dionysus444]

This is false too. Rs won 62 seats in '10. That's 22-27 more than the historical average. Ds won 40 which is the high end of the historical average. 62 > 40.

Again the historical average is a loss of 35-40 seats.

Recent 1st Term Presidential Midterms.

Reagan: House -26 Senate 0

HW Bush: House -8 Senate -1

Clinton: House -54 Senate -9

Bush: House +8 Senate +1

Obama: House -63 Senate -6

Trump: House -40 Senate +3

If you consider Trump only losing the average and gaining multiple seats in the Senate a blue wave election then you are desperate.

Democrats picking up 40 seats in the House is in line with historical averages.

But Republicans picking up seats in the Senate runs completely *against* historical precedent.

Net = Trump's party outperformed historical trends even though his approval numbers are supposedly in the dumps and he's supposedly one the most hated president ever. You call that a blue wave? Really?

You accuse others of cherry-picking stats while you cite nothing but historical averages that completely ignore specifics. You didn't have any rebuttal for @wildcatsboston1984's list of statistics so you ignored them to spout your personal opinion on what does or does not constitute a "wave". If you really think an almost 50% increase in turnout among voters 18-29 from one midterm to the next is "all talk" you're even dumber than I thought.

 

[DwayneMeighan]

You accuse others of cherry-picking stats while you cite nothing but historical averages that completely ignore specific

Random meaningless stats aren't specifics. Just because the Ds tend to suck at winning in the first term midterms and they did a little better this rime doesn't mean anything. Call it a wave if you want. When all is said and done it was average when put into context and compared to past elections.

If you really think an almost 50% increase in turnout among voters 18-29 from one midterm to the next is "all talk" you're even dumber than I thought.

Up to 31% from 21% is a 10% increase. And again when put into context in '14 the number that turned out in that age group made up 11% of the electorate. In '18 it was slightly better at 13% of the electorate.

 

[DwayneMeighan]

According to exit polls voters ages 18 to 29 made up 13 percent of the overall electorate in this year’s midterms. That's up from 11 percent in 2014.

And even though 18-to-29-year-olds saw the greatest increase in voters of any age group in 2018 they still made up the lowest percentage of voters.

Point is if only a very small number of them are turning out to begin with then it doesn't take much to increase that number from 21% to 31% and said increase isn't all that much on the overall electorate.

 

[moe_schmoe]

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Just dropped a few days ago. The hip-hop scene has been put on notice; they're up "neckst"...

 

[Dionysus444]

Up to 31% from 21% is a 10% increase.

Math is apparently not your strong suit so let me spell it out for you. 21% of the 18-29 age group voted in 2014. 31% voted in 2018. That's a 47.62% increase in turnout in that age group. MASSIVE difference from usual midterm turnout.

Point is if only a very small number of them are turning out to begin with then it doesn't take much to increase that number from 21% to 31% and said increase isn't all that much on the overall electorate.

There are 54 million 18-29 year olds in the country. 46% of that age group voted in the 2016 presidential election. The graphic @wildcatsboston1984 posted shows they broke for Hillary 58-28. That's roughly 24.84 million votes: 14.41 for Hillary, 6.96 for Trump, and 3.47 3rd party for a differential of 7.45 million more D votes than R. If you apply the 2018 changes in turnout and results from the graphics I linked earlier to 2020 that becomes 36.67 million votes: roughly 22.19 for the Democrat, 9.35 for Trump, and 5.13 3rd party assuming a similar 3rd party presidential showing. That's 12.84 million more D votes than R, giving the Democratic candidate a 5.39 million vote advantage over the 2016 results. 5.39 million votes are more than enough to flip a presidential election, and that's just from the 18-29 bracket we've been discussing, completely leaving alone the shifts also seen in the other age groups. Trump's really going to have to turn things around if he's going to have a chance in 2020.

 

[moe_schmoe]

Trump's really going to have to turn things around if he's going to have a chance in 2020

Have a chance? You're talking like he's the underdog. Exactly which Democrat is going to beat him? Unless some wonder boy comes along, as of now, there's not one.

Not to mention, the Democrat primaries are going to be a virtue signaling, tax raising, handout promising, illegal immigrantion advocating, identity politics shit show. Everyone pandering to dozens of 'victim' groups, with more than likely a white male winning out, potentially alienating half of the base.

Like Trump or not, the Republicans are firmly behind him. He's sitting at 90+% approval rating among his party, and hovering around 40-45% among Independents.

You can't say the same for any Democrat. The base is all over the place with who they support. No one can possibly appeal to and please every single individual tribe. I'm assuming the divide only grows after 30 of them run in the primaries.

According to the latest straw poll, the three frontrunners are Beto at just 15.6%, followed by Joe Biden at 14.9% and Bernie Sanders at 13.1%.

Three white males doesn't sit well with the 'progressives' of the party. Beto is already being attacked for not being far left enough, some even writing hit pieces, straight up calling him a Republican. If Beto isn't far left enough, imagine what they'll say about Biden? And good luck trying to win a general on the back of Bernie.

 

[Dionysus444]

Have a chance? You're talking like he's the underdog. Exactly which Democrat is going to beat him? Unless some wonder boy comes along, as of now, there's not one.

Not to mention, the Democrat primaries are going to be a virtue signaling, tax raising, handout promising, illegal immigrantion advocating, identity politics shit show. Everyone pandering to dozens of 'victim' groups, with more than likely a white male winning out, potentially alienating half of the base.

Like Trump or not, the Republicans are firmly behind him. He's sitting at 90+% approval rating among his party, and hovering around 40-45% among Independents.

You can't say the same for any Democrat. The base is all over the place with who they support. No one can possibly appeal to and please every single individual tribe. I'm assuming the divide only grows after 30 of them run in the primaries.

According to the latest straw poll, the three frontrunners are Beto at just 15.6%, followed by Joe Biden at 14.9% and Bernie Sanders at 13.1%.

Three white males doesn't sit well with the 'progressives' of the party. Beto is already being attacked for not being far left enough, some even writing hit pieces, straight up calling him a Republican. If Beto isn't far left enough, imagine what they'll say about Biden? And good luck trying to win a general on the back of Bernie.

The same could have been said about the 2016 Republican field. Numerous candidates and someone no one even considered let alone gave any chance came out of it and won the election. The midterm was a referendum on Trump, unless you think the Democrats won on the strength of their message and candidates, which I'm sure you'd be loath to admit. No evidence to suggest 2020 will be any different considering he'll be on the ballot directly.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

The midterm was a referendum on Trump

Wrong. There were endless elections deemed "a referendum on trump" and the left lost them all. The midterms were the only ones where they gained ground, and it wasn't nearly the ground they expected (remember the blue wave)?

I don't know what will happen in 2020 except that whomever the DNC tells msm to love, they will. And msm will continue to be fake news doing anything they can to deliver a Dem victory

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Speaking of fake news, 2018 is almost over and I was randomly thinking of the ridiculous fake news cycle of the past year. What was the worst?

Hard to say. But one that definitely doesn't get enough attention is the fake news notion that the "made you look" circle game from grade school was some white power symbol; and the non stop examination/analysis of whether or not a particular person was making the gesture in a picture.

This reached it's heights at the kavanaugh hearing where fake news kept alleging the lady behind him was somehow making this white power gesture.

Literally insane

 

[FusterCluck]

Dude just stop. You are embarrassing yourself. Bill has always been consistent in his views and he doesn't blindly worship politicians just because they have an R by their name. This is how we all should be. You need to move on because you are making yourself look foolish in this argument with Bill.

Embarrassed how? This is simply my opinion. I don't like or trust his indignant ass no matter how many of you want to suck his dick.

 

[warrior-cat]

The thing about youth is they grow up, have kids, careers and realize the idealism of their youth isn’t reality.

This is the main reason the left needs more immigration from South America. That and abortion is higher among the left than the right. Not enough youth to offset the rising number of older Americans. If they get those people in here to live off of those who pay the bills, they will vote democrat. They already do overwhelmingly as many studies have shown. Dems do not care about the poor so much as they care what the poor can do for them.

 

[warrior-cat]

Air traffic controllers and TSA workers will remain on job, but without pay.

Though workers will remain on the job, it is with the assumption that they will receive their wages retroactively rather than get their regular paycheck.

I'm flying tomorrow and am feeling pretty, pretty good about the people who keep planes from crashing into each other not getting paid on time.

Government!!

Not a problem. They know they will get paid regardless. Has happened before and they got paid.

 

[warrior-cat]

Blame everyone but himself.

Where have we seen that before. The entire democratic party under Obama blamed everything bad on the right.

 

[warrior-cat]

He may just as well have pulled the trigger himself.

Well, stupid just hit a new level, congrats.

 

[moe_schmoe]

The midterm was a referendum on Trump,

I disagree. Red states became redder. People said Trump would turn off more voters with his midterm rhetoric, but several Trump backed candidates did much better than the polling suggested. All the states that Trump held rallies in, the numbers were better on polling day.

As much as this year’s midterms offered an obvious opportunity to rebuke Trump, little of what the Democrats and members of the mainstream media expected and predicted would happen actually did.

Voters had a chance to repudiate Trump and they really didn't. Much of the commentary had been about who we are as a country and what America is all about. Well, a lot of America still seems to be about supporting Trump. The Democrats thought Trump’s negatives would be enough to ease them to a big victory. The 2018 results show it is clear they need a different plan to win in 2020.

If you look at the House votes and project that on to a presidential election in '20, Trump could lose the imaginary popular vote by several million and still win the electoral college.

unless you think the Democrats won on the strength of their message and candidates

A crucial test for any Democrat nominee in 2020 is -- what are your chances of carrying Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin? If they’re good, you’re a good choice. If they’re not, you’re a terrible choice.

Pay attention to the way Democrats in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin won. They mostly stayed away from far left, progressive candidates, and carefully hand picked them especially for those districts.

Messaging also played a big role. In Michigan, the winning slogan was, ‘Fix the damn roads!' That was the bumper sticker, 'Make America Great Again' level. Democrats can win in the Midwest, they proved that in these midterms, and there is a way they can do that and a way they cannot.

But, in a general election, the way to do it will alienate most of the base, especially on the coasts. Whomever the nominee is will be walking a tight rope while juggling dozens of balls.

 

[AustinTXCat]

lol. Look at their policies, not their name. While they did have some leftist ideals, it is clearly a right-wing group. Nazism was actually an anti-socialist/anti-communist movement under Hitler and Hitler outlawed socialism/communism in Germany once he and the Nazis rose to power, including banning the Socialist Democratic Party of Germany, which has been either a socialist or a Marxist party since its inception. In the Night of the Long Knives, all left-leaning people in the NAzi party were killed. They executed socialists and communists much in the same fashion as they did nearly every other minority group throughout Europe and Germany. The Dachau concentration camp was originally created to hold socialists while 11,000 people were arrested in Germany for socialist activity in 1936 alone.

The Nazi ideology under Hitler was based around fascism, which rose as a protest of leftist politics. The Nazi party arose as a right-wing organization with the vast majority of its members coming from other right-wing political parties like the German People's Party and the German National People's Party as they either defected to the Nazi party, saw their party merge with the Nazis, or they formed an alliance with the Nazi party.

Schooled, you can thank me later.

YOU have not schooled jack shit; however, thanks for the shallow wikipedia-like answer.

You are dismissed.

 

[warrior-cat]

"Math is apparently not your strong suit so let me spell it out for you. 21% of the 18-29 age group voted in 2014. 31% voted in 2018. That's a 47.62% increase in turnout in that age group. MASSIVE difference from usual midterm turnout"

It is a 10% increase from the overall number but, I think you knew that. You needed that 47.62% to bolster your blue wave argument which holds no water at all considering midterms always have higher turnouts for the losers.

 

[AustinTXCat]

the republican losers can't even get the funding bill through a procedural vote. flake voted no, another isnt going to show up, corker might vote no. Murkowski ripped into Trump because he offered nothing but bullshit at the meeting this morning. good ole GoP, all talk, no actual governing once in power.

 

[Pelosigalore]

I have to be honest, the stock market correction and raising of interest rates scares me a little bit. We might be heading for a recession...

Thoughts?