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POLITICAL THREAD

How will they rule ??!

  • YES - Qualified

    Votes: 41 82.0%
  • NO - Disqualified

    Votes: 9 18.0%

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .
He needs to do a lot more than win Florida, Willy. His path is extremely narrow; still feasible, but very narrow.

Winning Florida is as essential for him as winning Texas.

Jamo. Oh, I was just reporting about Florida. I don't know about the other states.
I can only report what I see here. Florida is all Trump brother.
 
I would argue that Ohio is red regardless of how Trump does. State GOP there is simply too strong and the performance (not electorally, but professionally) of Kasich & Portman has created a very very strong brand there. Plus, the state is doing so well economically that incumbents are going to keep getting elected, and I believe every single statewide office is currently filled by a Republican.

Trump's most feasible path is the Romney map + FL OH IA NV NH, then pick off ME-2. And that assumes he pulls NC out of the fire, which is looking more difficult than Florida (amazingly enough, and likely thanks to Rubio's campaign machine).

Could he somehow flip Pennsylvania or Wisconsin+Colorado? Perhaps, but I would argue that that's a much more difficult task for him than a Florida win is for Clinton.



TL;DR: His path is still basically the same as it was 3 months ago and is the same as any GOPer would've had. For all the talk of turning the Rust Belt red, he's still dependent on the same purple states Romney, McCain, and GWB were.
You think Jeb Bush would be tied in Michigan? LOL.
 
Said from Day 1 for everyone not to dismiss Trump. He has proven time and time again that his message is resonating in a major way and has turned this election upside down. Barring something totally devastating coming out on him (believe the grab pu$$y audio was their silver bullet) Donald Trump will win next Tuesday and will Make America Great Again.
 
If he wins Pen it's over. I just don't see it. Look at the percentage of dem votes for Obama in Philly. It's absurd. No way those are all legit votes. But they count just the same.

Expect much the same this election.
 
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If you vote for Hillary at this point, you really are just plain stupid. Pretty simple.

That and anyone who votes for her are giving her their blessing to sell the rest of this country to the high bidder. They are worth over 200 million now and have not worked a day since 2000 when they were broke and in debt. They have not ran any business, created one job and gained a 200 million bank account by shady and crooked practices. How much money is enough? How can ANYONE support that is beyond me.
 


Pretty heartwarming.

Would be nice to see the majority of the country come together after the last 8 years of the divider in chief playing identity politics at every turn. Killary would be more of the same divisive crap.
 
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Pretty sure that woman is Cuban. I highly doubt Cubans voting Republican (which they always do) has anything to do with the overall beating Trump will take with Mexicans (you know, the vast majority of hispanic voters)
 
Pretty sure that woman is Cuban. I highly doubt Cubans voting Republican (which they always do) has anything to do with the overall beating Trump will take with Mexicans (you know, the vast majority of hispanic voters)
He'll get 30-40% of Hispanic vote and 20% of black votes. Really good numbers and disastrous for Crooked.
 
She was going to lose before this came out Friday, polls were already turning. All Comey did was distract everyone from what was going to be the nail in the coffin...Obamacare.

Since Friday Obamacare hasn't been mentioned in the News, before that it was all about how the rates were about to explode. Obama is all about his "legacy", her losing due to the ACA only tarnishes him.
 
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I feel like I have to preface everything, lest I be shouted down as a Cankle Cuck (Cack? Cunkle?). But, national opinion polls have nothing to do with state by state races. I mean, *theoretically* a candidate could win the 7 most populous states by a wide enough margin to carry the popular vote, but still get swamped in the electoral college.

Trump being up by 1 point in a national poll means nothing if he can't win NC, FL, NV, and OH
 
I feel like I have to preface everything, lest I be shouted down as a Cankle Cuck (Cack? Cunkle?). But, national opinion polls have nothing to do with state by state races. I mean, *theoretically* a candidate could win the 7 most populous states by a wide enough margin to carry the popular vote, but still get swamped in the electoral college.

Trump being up by 1 point in a national poll means nothing if he can't win NC, FL, NV, and OH
You know what Cal says about yelping dogs... :cool:
 
Washington. And it's so GD incredible. I love it..

so . . . any complaints of mail/ballot theft? any complaints of "I didn't get my ballot sent to me" ??? pretty obvious there are pitfalls in send the voting booth to the voter in lieu of the other way round . . . I probably wouldn't mind it though.

How long has this been implemented in Washington? For many years I worked regularly in Richland area off / on. Don't remember any locals ever talking about it.
 
She was going to lose before this came out Friday, polls were already turning. All Comey did was distract everyone from what was going to be the nail in the coffin...Obamacare.

Since Friday Obamacare hasn't been mentioned in the News, before that it was all about how the rates were about to explode. Obama is all about his "legacy", her losing due to the ACA only tarnishes him.

A key reason obamacare had such an impact? That was info each voter received on their own, from their own plan.

It didn't require having to cipher through all the msm bs to try to get the facts. They got real information, that would be effecting their pocket book in a real way.
 
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I feel like I have to preface everything, lest I be shouted down as a Cankle Cuck (Cack? Cunkle?). But, national opinion polls have nothing to do with state by state races. I mean, *theoretically* a candidate could win the 7 most populous states by a wide enough margin to carry the popular vote, but still get swamped in the electoral college.

Trump being up by 1 point in a national poll means nothing if he can't win NC, FL, NV, and OH

Really? You must teach a US GOVT class?

You should have prefaced it with this:

I'm about to repeat the most common said post on the political thread
 
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I feel like I have to preface everything, lest I be shouted down as a Cankle Cuck (Cack? Cunkle?). But, national opinion polls have nothing to do with state by state races. I mean, *theoretically* a candidate could win the 7 most populous states by a wide enough margin to carry the popular vote, but still get swamped in the electoral college.

Trump being up by 1 point in a national poll means nothing if he can't win NC, FL, NV, and OH


I think you are putting way too much faith in polls. It has become crystal clear in this election just how much in bed the MSM is with the democrat party. I live in NC and have never, ever once been polled. I think the pollsters are depending too much on past election turnouts and using likely voters (the ones that usually vote), when there is a huge voter base out there that are fed up with both Dems and Repubs and want an outsider, like Trump that will turn out in droves. I live in a city in NC with a population of 50,000 and is 60% black. I work part time delivering car parts around town, it is very hard to find anyone supporting Hilary, even blacks. I see very few yard signs for either her or Trump. This election might be the one when the silent majority speaks up with their votes.
 
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I feel like I have to preface everything, lest I be shouted down as a Cankle Cuck (Cack? Cunkle?). But, national opinion polls have nothing to do with state by state races. I mean, *theoretically* a candidate could win the 7 most populous states by a wide enough margin to carry the popular vote, but still get swamped in the electoral college.

Trump being up by 1 point in a national poll means nothing if he can't win NC, FL, NV, and OH
Fair enough and true. National polls are important in that they can impact voter turnout. If Hillary is now even or down 1 and trending downward, turnout for her will likely be lower due to apathy.
 
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I feel like I have to preface everything, lest I be shouted down as a Cankle Cuck (Cack? Cunkle?). But, national opinion polls have nothing to do with state by state races. I mean, *theoretically* a candidate could win the 7 most populous states by a wide enough margin to carry the popular vote, but still get swamped in the electoral college.

Trump being up by 1 point in a national poll means nothing if he can't win NC, FL, NV, and OH
It would take a statistical aberration of the highest order for any candidate to win the popular vote by more than 1 or 2 points and still lose the electoral vote. Essentially, that candidate would have to win his or her expected win states by more than expected, lose his or her expected loss in closer losses than expected, and come up snake eyes in almost every swing state. Even in that scenario, the electoral loss would be a close one.

Put another way it's hard to imagine Trump winning enough votes across the nation to win the popular vote, and somehow not win OH, FL, and NC. If he can't win those three states, he's not winning the national popular vote, either. There is a possibility that he wins the popular vote by 1 percent, wins those states, and still loses, because he narrowly misses NH and CO, but there's also a chance that Clinton could win the popular vote by 1 percent, but only because she crushes him in CA and NY and IL, overperforms in TX and GA (but still loses those states), and gets nipped in NH and CO. It's hard to imagine either winning the popular by more than 2 and not having the electoral vote take care of itself from there. Possible, but very unlikely.
 
Again, eff Hillary.

That said, polls get more and more accurate the closer you get to the election. Could they be undersampling potential Trump voters? Of course. I'm not saying it's impossible or even unlikely, just that counting on one poll showing a one point lead AFTER people have already started voting, and not accounting for the electoral breakdown isn't wise.
 
Transy is right whether you all want to believe this or not.

If you think she wins PA then ok give it to Trump, but if he doesn't then explain how he wins enough electorate votes?

Don't give me he is going to win because his base is diehard........his base is in states he is going to win!

Give me something meaningful as to where and why?

I do think this was a distraction from Obamacare which is why he was ok with it too! Especially once the media turned on the damn FBI director.

Trump needs to get on tv and say that is good and all but the real issue facing america is obamacare. Letting that slip away is cray cray.
 
Strange election, poll numbers aren't as accurate or as relative. Everything depends on who cares enough to vote in this election.

If it's even remotely close, there will be so many legal challenges that it may be months before we know who is President. And the only outcome regardless of who wins will be that the President will have half the country never recognizing their authority. Bluntly, I hope it's not too close.
 
Transy is right whether you all want to believe this or not.

If you think she wins PA then ok give it to Trump, but if he doesn't then explain how he wins enough electorate votes?

Don't give me he is going to win because his base is diehard........his base is in states he is going to win!

Give me something meaningful as to where and why?

I do think this was a distraction from Obamacare which is why he was ok with it too! Especially once the media turned on the damn FBI director.

Trump needs to get on tv and say that is good and all but the real issue facing america is obamacare. Letting that slip away is cray cray.
You clearly haven't been listening to what Trump has been saying...

Obamacare is LITERALLY the FIRST thing he mentions at EVERY rally since the rate increases were announced.

Trump deserves a TON of credit for relentlessly staying on topic the past few weeks while interweaving Crooked's corruption into the stumps. He was kicking her ass BEFORE the FBI announcement for a reason.

Right now Crooked's campaign is cratering and she's helpless to stop it.
 
If you can't see the writing on the wall...

Any state slightly leaning Hillary's way today will end up going Trump's way in the election. Look at Silver's site, fivethirtyeight.com. Silver puts Hillary's chances in NC at 57%. Now, look at the numbers that poll is based on. No poll since October 25-26. So it does not take into account events that have taken place since Wednesday of last week and how that has affected voters. I also believe the polls are missing Trump voters, but even discounting that, there will be significant movement in the electorate that is not even gauged yet in polling. The tide has turned, and the wave is red. FL, NC and NV all flip to Trump by election day, and Trump takes the EC. And, if I am right and Trump votes are being missed in the polls, there won't even be any drama on election night.
 
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this is what it looks like . . . when the wheels . . . come off your stinking wagon
http://thefederalist.com/2016/10/31/black-church-leaders-message-hillary-clinton-religious-liberty/

direct link to the letter sent to HRC . . . some of the content is just . . . WOW http://cdn.thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Clinton-Letter-with-signatories-10.30.pdf

"Nationally there are 365 black babies aborted for every 1000 born. Blacks account for roughly 38% of all abortions though we represents only 13% of the population." (the letter then goes on to explain to Ms. Clinton that in NYC more black women have abortions than black babies are born.)
 
I would have to say it's a pretty good read . . . sample excerpts:

In 2008, Secretary Clinton, you took the position that abortion should be rare, and you emphasized “by rare I mean rare.” But Black babies are dying at terrifying rates. How do you justify your unconscionable silence in the face of such destruction of innocent black life? Don’t black lives matter?

Yet in this very nation demagogues have dared to accuse people of faith of promoting Jim Crow laws when they seek to safeguard their freedom to obey their conscience and follow the teachings of their sacred texts. There is no analogy between the apartheid of Jim Crow and the religious freedom laws in force across this country. It is the very same faith that is protected by religious freedom laws that inspired our black ancestors to lead the movement for the abolition of slavery and the end of Jim Crow apartheid in the American South. It is absurd to demean the defense of this faith as the equivalent of the injustices that we have fought and overcome.
 
Not sure how I missed that Barry and the DOJ denied the FBI's request to investigate TCF 3 times during the email investigation. And isn't the latest scuttlebutt that the new info is relative to tCF?

And this is Comey's fault?

No wonder WH has no opinion on reopening case. Can't fit anymore foot in mouth ATM.
 
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“So, what I’m saying here,” he continued, “is that, while I respect the Catholic Church as I’m sure millions of Americans do, you know, at some point it is going to start acting contrary to the Christian faith, and we’re talking about an institution that’s supposed to be the first one on the front line defending it. So, when that happens, and that’s what’s happening with condemning LGBT rights, we’ll state an ultimatum. The United States of America, more precisely, the future President of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton, will state an ultimatum. And that ultimatum will be to either change its stance on same-sex marriage or pack its bags and get out of America. And yes – the President of the country can do that.


It originated with The Rightest on Sept 12.

"The Right To Be Right…TheRightists.com/.com is independent News platform That allow People and independent Journalist to bring the news directly to the readers. Readers come to us as a source of independent news that not effected from the big channels.

This is HYBRID site of news and satire. part of our stories already happens, part, not yet. NOT all of our stories are true!"
 
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Polls are narrowing. I think he wins Florida, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. However, he still has to break into Hillary's firewall of Penn, Wisconsin and Michigan to win the Electoral College.
 
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BigBlueDave, thanks. I checked Snopes and, if Snopes can be trusted, Kaine didn't state the entire quote. I deleted my prior post.

That was simply way too far fetched to think he would say it and not see it blow completely up.
 
A key reason obamacare had such an impact? That was info each voter received on their own, from their own plan.

It didn't require having to cipher through all the msm bs to try to get the facts. They got real information, that would be effecting their pocket book in a real way.

Not really, as it's just starting to play out.
It was forecasted to jump 25% next year, and it was reported broadly.
Now, everyone will find out about it on there own, but as of last week they hadn't.
 
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