well . . . Florida is just a wait and see. He loses without it, plain and simple. Urgently must have Arizona and North Carolina. Still, if he wins those 3 states - personally believe he will - that will still leave him 10 electoral votes shy. Where will those come from? As many have mentioned, myself included, this election is won and lost in Pennsylvania. If he could manage Penn and Florida, he could win without either North Carolina or Arizona but not without both. So, back to the 10 electoral votes shy scenario . . . if he doesn't win PA, he would need either (1) at least one unlikely great lake state, (2) unlikely combination of NV and CO, or (3) some unforeseeable other combination.
That, of course, totally ignores any idea that Texas and Georgia are actually "in-play" . . . has confidence in Ohio and Iowa outcomes like you mention. The man basically has to win Pennsylvania - currently a way's from promoting to "iffy" status.