Louisville Season Prediction

[WildCard]

In short, 2019 is the rare occasion when UL has a similar strength of schedule as UK. And, a quick glance at the UL boards would indicate that your fanbase is minimizing Uk's schedule which is hilarious given the wide disparity in the programs' schedule strength disparity over time.

Ahhh schedules! And more specifically Strength of Schedules. There is no doubt, year in, year out, the SEC is the toughest football conference in the land. But that does not necessarily guarantee a tougher schedule for an individual member over members of other P5 conferences

A lot depends on OOC scheduling, conference rotational opponent and divisional "toughness". On this latter point the SECE is simply not the same as it was when GA, FL and TN totally dominated everyone else.

Historic power TN is a shadow of what they were back in the Fulmer years. FL is 83-45 under 3 coaches since Meyer retired but appears to be heading back to lofty Meyer/Spurrier standards under Mullen. GA is the only SECE power to not "stumble" over the past decade and appears better than ever under Smart. I'm not saying the SECE is/was "weak" but the past 10 years have been the best I can recall for others to "step up" (e.g., MO 2013, 2014 and SC 2011-2013). Now regarding UofL's SOS in "comparison" with UK's...

There is no doubt that UofL's SOS (regardless of how you compute it) has gone up enormously since joining the ACC. Over that time (2014-2018) Sagarin (the easiest historic SOS numbers to access) has computed UofL SOS to be #45, #35, #54, #45 and #15. Average #39. Over that same period UK's SOS was computed to be #11, #57, #46, #61 and #34. Average #42. Virtually no difference by Sagarin's SOS calculations.

I don't know how he computes his numbers but in this 5 year span there is an "aberration ranking" for each (2018 for a 2-10 UofL team and 2014 for a 5-7 UK team). Throw those out and look at the remaining 4 years. That is a #45 average for UofL and a #50 average for UK. Again, virtually no difference whatsoever.

Sagarin has the current 2019 UofL SOS #27 and the current UK SOS #53. But this year is a bit different, UofL catches a big OOC opponent and UK catches the 2 absolute worst teams in the whole SEC (Vandy and AR).

UofL finishes out with #66 ranked 'Cuse and #48 ranked UK (current rankings). UK finishes out against #157 UT-Martin and #53 UofL. So the current 2019 SOS numbers will almost certainly finish up further apart.

When discussing SOS I alway use Sagarin rankings not because I know them to be the best but because they are easy to find. I did some web search and found 10 sites that offer SOS to date numbers. I discarded the data from 1 site which ranked UofL #1 and UK #92.

Looking only at 2019 the average SOS of the other 9 sites was #31 for UofL and #51 for UK, very close to Sagarin's rankings of #27 and #53.

FWIW, I like "numerical assessments" but I think SOS is the most difficult thing to objectively evaluate. At some point it is not a reflection of how good are your opponents but how bad you are. UofL's 2018 SOS of #15 is a good example of what I mean.

Whew! Need a break.

Peace

 

[Cardinals19701]

I just say, someone kick the ball off to start the game and let the chips fall where they may lmao

 

[HoptownCat93]

I just say, someone kick the ball off to start the game and let the chips fall where they may lmao

Honestly you are right...I'm just ready for the game this year...

Both teams are rebuilding...Kentucky a slight favorite but UofL the underdog with momentum.

Nothing truly on the line like bowl eligibility(if we beat UTM), no Heisman candidate, no NY6 bowl game on the line...neither team ranked....

2 bowl eligible rivals battling it out for pride and momentum going into bowl season. UK wants to assert some dominance in the series...UofL wants to remind UK who has been winning the last decade.

A win this year makes UK 4-6 this decade, but a loss makes UofL 7-3.

A win gives UK 3 out of 4 in the series and have their first win streak in 9 years going into the next decade...and feeling good with the team returning and recruits coming into the program.

A loss? Louisville will have won 7 of 9....gives them maybe 8 wins after a 2-10 season and pushes UK down to 6-6 after a 10 win season.

This is going to be a pride game for sure. The 2 teams seem to have good staffs in place and now for the 3rd time in 4 years...both teams will be playing as bowl eligible teams. A rivalry on the right track and ready to grow!

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

That was my biggest concern when we played BC and ironically Louisville expended so much of themselves defensively with attention on their hammer RBs that the second string QB had some success downfield initially; BC doesn't even pretend to play finesse football, it's two tight ends, it is tight O line splits and it is hand it off to a 240 pound RB AJ Dillon or their 230+ pound backup. Eventually they started getting some freedom, but it wasn't until deep into the 2nd half.

When they have faced one dimensional sets like BC and UVa they have been decent. I would add that one of my biggest laments has been inconsistency on third and long, which is something consistent with a team that doesn't get pressure even in sure passing downs. Our defensive staff has done alot of three man rushes in third and long all year and I personally think it's a mistake because our LBs are pretty athletic. I don't think they trust our safeties in man coverage, especially Pass. What makes UK unique from all previous opponents is that with the running game going so much through Bowden that has the effect of having an extra blocker on the field. It's not like the Wildcat where your QB might as well be drinking a beer or picking his nose one yard from the sideline. I think if you put a gun to our D coordinator's head though he would like the matchup because coverage concerns from your safeties are a little minimized.

Cool. Thanks for the insight

 

[Platinumdrgn]

Honestly you are right...I'm just ready for the game this year...

Both teams are rebuilding...Kentucky a slight favorite but UofL the underdog with momentum.

Nothing truly on the line like bowl eligibility(if we beat UTM), no Heisman candidate, no NY6 bowl game on the line...neither team ranked....

2 bowl eligible rivals battling it out for pride and momentum going into bowl season. UK wants to assert some dominance in the series...UofL wants to remind UK who has been winning the last decade.

A win this year makes UK 4-6 this decade, but a loss makes UofL 7-3.

A win gives UK 3 out of 4 in the series and have their first win streak in 9 years going into the next decade...and feeling good with the team returning and recruits coming into the program.

A loss? Louisville will have won 7 of 9....gives them maybe 8 wins after a 2-10 season and pushes UK down to 6-6 after a 10 win season.

This is going to be a pride game for sure. The 2 teams seem to have good staffs in place and now for the 3rd time in 4 years...both teams will be playing as bowl eligible teams. A rivalry on the right track and ready to grow!

UK isn't bowl eligible yet. Wouldn't get ahead of ourselves

 

[HoptownCat93]

UK isn't bowl eligible yet. Wouldn't get ahead of ourselves

We're playing UT Martin. We are bowl eligible. If we aren't at a point where we can't confidently say we can beat an average FCS team easily...well we're a lot further back than we all thought/

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Ahhh schedules! And more specifically Strength of Schedules. There is no doubt, year in, year out, the SEC is the toughest football conference in the land. But that does not necessarily guarantee a tougher schedule for an individual member over members of other P5 conferences

A lot depends on OOC scheduling, conference rotational opponent and divisional "toughness". On this latter point the SECE is simply not the same as it was when GA, FL and TN totally dominated everyone else.

Historic power TN is a shadow of what they were back in the Fulmer years. FL is 83-45 under 3 coaches since Meyer retired but appears to be heading back to lofty Meyer/Spurrier standards under Mullen. GA is the only SECE power to not "stumble" over the past decade and appears better than ever under Smart. I'm not saying the SECE is/was "weak" but the past 10 years have been the best I can recall for others to "step up" (e.g., MO 2013, 2014 and SC 2011-2013). Now regarding UofL's SOS in "comparison" with UK's...

There is no doubt that UofL's SOS (regardless of how you compute it) has gone up enormously since joining the ACC. Over that time (2014-2018) Sagarin (the easiest historic SOS numbers to access) has computed UofL SOS to be #45, #35, #54, #45 and #15. Average #39. Over that same period UK's SOS was computed to be #11, #57, #46, #61 and #34. Average #42. Virtually no difference by Sagarin's SOS calculations.

I don't know how he computes his numbers but in this 5 year span there is an "aberration ranking" for each (2018 for a 2-10 UofL team and 2014 for a 5-7 UK team). Throw those out and look at the remaining 4 years. That is a #45 average for UofL and a #50 average for UK. Again, virtually no difference whatsoever.

Sagarin has the current 2019 UofL SOS #27 and the current UK SOS #53. But this year is a bit different, UofL catches a big OOC opponent and UK catches the 2 absolute worst teams in the whole SEC (Vandy and AR).

UofL finishes out with #66 ranked 'Cuse and #48 ranked UK (current rankings). UK finishes out against #157 UT-Martin and #53 UofL. So the current 2019 SOS numbers will almost certainly finish up further apart.

When discussing SOS I alway use Sagarin rankings not because I know them to be the best but because they are easy to find. I did some web search and found 10 sites that offer SOS to date numbers. I discarded the data from 1 site which ranked UofL #1 and UK #92.

Looking only at 2019 the average SOS of the other 9 sites was #31 for UofL and #51 for UK, very close to Sagarin's rankings of #27 and #53.

FWIW, I like "numerical assessments" but I think SOS is the most difficult thing to objectively evaluate. At some point it is not a reflection of how good are your opponents but how bad you are. UofL's 2018 SOS of #15 is a good example of what I mean.

Whew! Need a break.

Peace

I, and others, have said that I give no credence to Sagarin and I explained why. It's simply a joke to say that UL has played a comparable schedule to UK over the last ten years. The SEC east is not at its peak but it's still better than nearly every division out there not named the Big Ten East. The one thing you said that I agree with is that there is no doubt that UL plays a harder schedule since joining the ACC. This is indisputable, though it's still relatively weak compared to nearly all other power 5 teams as the ACC is the sixth best conference this year (another numbers darling, real time RPI, graded the AAC above it).

 

[CB3UK]

Well I'll admit to being wrong about what the Dirty Birds might do this year, but I will say re:Gov Cup....this game essentially never goes how anyone expects it to. This year it's really up in the air in my mind. No telling what we'll see next Saturday.

 

[WildCard]

I, and others, have said that I give no credence to Sagarin and I explained why. It's simply a joke to say that UL has played a comparable schedule to UK over the last ten years. The SEC east is not at its peak but it's still better than nearly every division out there not named the Big Ten East. The one thing you said that I agree with is that there is no doubt that UL plays a harder schedule since joining the ACC. This is indisputable, though it's still relatively weak compared to nearly all other power 5 teams as the ACC is the sixth best conference this year (another numbers darling, real time RPI, graded the AAC above it).

I won't try to change your mind. But when I address "schedule equality" I speak only to the past 5 (going on 6) years that UofL has been in the ACC. We obviously disagree on this SOS subject but let me quote one point from my earlier post regarding your your disdain for Sagarin:

...Looking only at 2019 the average SOS of the other 9 sites was #31 for UofL and #51 for UK, very close to Sagarin's rankings of #27 and #53...

That is 9 other guys that came up with essentially the same mathematical conclusion as Sagarin.

Peace

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

I won't try to change your mind. But when I address "schedule equality" I speak only to the past 5 (going on 6) years that UofL has been in the ACC. We obviously disagree on this SOS subject but let me quote one point from my earlier post regarding your your disdain for Sagarin:

​

That is 9 other guys that came up with essentially the same mathematical conclusion as Sagarin.

Peace

I understand, I just disagree with all 9 (or 99) of these kinds of rankings. The reasons that I don't find them to be valid:

-It's generally harder to beat a mid tier SEC team than a mid tier ACC team. The reason is that the middle of the SEC has football schools that spend a ton of money on football, they recruit at the highest level, and it's harder to win road games at places like South Carolina, UT, and A&M than at places like Louisville, Virginia, and Wake. The rankings will never account for that.

-Even the middle and the bottom of the SEC recruit at a top 25 level. The result of that is that someone has to lose every year. A&M will finish this year 7-5. If they were in the ACC, they would finish 11-1 or 10-2. Again, Sagarin will never account for that. UK may finish with one of its highest ever recruiting rankings in the mid to lower teens, and it will still finish 7th, 8th, or 9th in the conference. If UL finished with that kind of class, they would finish 2nd or 3rd in the ACC.

This is a year where the very bottom of the SEC is squishy soft bad (Vandy and Arkansas). But, even in a year like this, I don't really know that the very bottom of the ACC (NC State, Ga Tech, Cuse) is any better.

Someone on here posted a link to your board where Lefors essentially makes a similar argument (I believe he was arguing with either KerryMoron or Zipp). This isn't a UL vs. UK argument, it's just a fact of life.

 

[laxcat#5]

Louisville has 21 scholarship players going through senior day ceremonies tomorrow. If Mechi Bechton goes pro, they will be a lot weaker in 2020.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Louisville has 21 scholarship players going through senior day ceremonies tomorrow. If Mechi Bechton goes pro, they will be a lot weaker in 2020.

How many grad transfers did they take this year? I wonder if they will try to fill holes that way.

 

[WildCard]

Louisville has 21 scholarship players going through senior day ceremonies tomorrow. If Mechi Bechton goes pro, they will be a lot weaker in 2020.

I just looked at UofL's depth chart for last week's game. The Cards return 19 players from the offensive 2 deep including 8 current starters. They return 16 players from the defensive 2 deep including 8 current starters.

Looking at this crazy, unexpected season that may be good for the offense but bad for the defense!

Peace

 

[HoptownCat93]

I just looked at UofL's depth chart for last week's game. The Cards return 19 players from the offensive 2 deep including 8 current starters. They return 16 players from the defensive 2 deep including 8 current starters.

Looking at this crazy, unexpected season that may be good for the offense but bad for the defense!

Peace

Bobby had a good eye...know a great eye for skill position talent. Now why he quit trying last year is beyond me haha.

But the depth chart I see.

Offense you lose Haycraft, Dawkins, and Pfiefer. Becton is gone as well I'm assuming. So that'll be 7 returning starters. Your offense will be good again, the line will still be thin and missing their best blocker but as long as Ledford is there it won't be an issue. But the offense will still be explosive.

Defense you lose Caban, Robinson, & Kane Pass. I think your line will be weaker, but everyone is back and it can't get worse. Still thin.

Bobby left some good talent on offense in the junior/senior groups. I think when get to 2021 when this 2019 class starts entering year 3 is when you may see some issues on that side.

The team will look drastically different in 2-4 years as Satterfield's style is a bit more suited for power and ball control, he just adjusted this year because he's never had weapons like Atwell and Hawkins.

The ACC being down will help this rebuild process too.

 

[NamelessOne]

I won't try to change your mind. But when I address "schedule equality" I speak only to the past 5 (going on 6) years that UofL has been in the ACC. We obviously disagree on this SOS subject but let me quote one point from my earlier post regarding your your disdain for Sagarin:

​

That is 9 other guys that came up with essentially the same mathematical conclusion as Sagarin.

Peace

Wildcard, the conference power ratings have the ACC listed as the worst Power 5 conference and even ranked behind the AAC. Without Clemson, the ACC would be Big East bad.

UL went a combined 2-4 against teams ranked in the top 50. Losing 184-247 or 31 to 41 each time having to play a top 50 caliber opponent.