Louisville Season Prediction
- Thread starter Crankdatmustard
- Start date
Unless satterfield is bear Bryant, this may be one of the worst D1 teams in recent memory
A W over UK??? REALLY???
I think they will be better than expected, but with that I only mean competitive. I don't see anyway they pull a 6-6 out of this season and I think we handle them with ease.
Interesting.
First, I am reminded how many here thought UL could not rebound after sending a good group to the NFL a few years ago and, yet, they had replacements we did not appreciate. I see some UL fans doing the same with UK next year. Time will tell.
Second, it is interesting that some there believe that the defense had talent but just gave up. That team gave up more points than any other P5 program in the country, I believe. UK was struggling on offense at season’s end before getting healthy against that porous crew. It was laughable. If such talent just gave up to that extent, Satterfield best be a master therapist to get them right.
I don’t care about their schedule, except for the UK game. I don’t know how good they will be, but suspect Satterfield can do more immediately with the offense than defense. I see skill players on offense that can be used to impact outcomes. Holes on offense can be disguised more than on defense. I like some of their returning defenders, if they can be disciplined, but if you have a weak chink next to a star on defense, other teams can exploit. I see Hall and Cunningham and some WRs who can take a manageable QB and play winning offensive football (they need a grad transfer or two at TE). I am less certain about the defense.
First, I am reminded how many here thought UL could not rebound after sending a good group to the NFL a few years ago and, yet, they had replacements we did not appreciate. I see some UL fans doing the same with UK next year. Time will tell.
Second, it is interesting that some there believe that the defense had talent but just gave up. That team gave up more points than any other P5 program in the country, I believe. UK was struggling on offense at season’s end before getting healthy against that porous crew. It was laughable. If such talent just gave up to that extent, Satterfield best be a master therapist to get them right.
I don’t care about their schedule, except for the UK game. I don’t know how good they will be, but suspect Satterfield can do more immediately with the offense than defense. I see skill players on offense that can be used to impact outcomes. Holes on offense can be disguised more than on defense. I like some of their returning defenders, if they can be disciplined, but if you have a weak chink next to a star on defense, other teams can exploit. I see Hall and Cunningham and some WRs who can take a manageable QB and play winning offensive football (they need a grad transfer or two at TE). I am less certain about the defense.
![[roll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/roll.r191677.gif "roll [roll]")
I have a hard time seeing them win more than 3-4 games and I don't think that is a given.
Consider this:
-Schedule is tougher than usual (Notre Dame and UK OOC, crossover game at Miami, the usual Clemson / FSU / NC State bunch, Syracuse and Wake and BC are not as bad as they used to be, UVA is WAY better than they used to be). Where do the wins come from? Even WKU in nashville may not be a picnic.
-They have a LOT of players transferring and not much in the way of new recruiting given Satterthorpe's late start.
-I see very little help on the line of scrimmage which was their biggest weakness. They seem to be OK at RB and WR, but not sure that is worth a whole lot if your line play and your D is awful.
This is NOT a quick rebuild. If Satterfield wins 6 games this year, he should be ACC coach of the year.
Consider this:
-Schedule is tougher than usual (Notre Dame and UK OOC, crossover game at Miami, the usual Clemson / FSU / NC State bunch, Syracuse and Wake and BC are not as bad as they used to be, UVA is WAY better than they used to be). Where do the wins come from? Even WKU in nashville may not be a picnic.
-They have a LOT of players transferring and not much in the way of new recruiting given Satterthorpe's late start.
-I see very little help on the line of scrimmage which was their biggest weakness. They seem to be OK at RB and WR, but not sure that is worth a whole lot if your line play and your D is awful.
This is NOT a quick rebuild. If Satterfield wins 6 games this year, he should be ACC coach of the year.
So their problem last year was pure coaching and not a lack of talent across the board. They are in for a rude awakening.
UL is a dumpster fire. 2 wins this year maybe. They will not win a game in the ACC.
Unless Wilson gets hurt plus Hoak transfers or gets hurt too UK will score 50 plus on Louisville. Probably score 35 without either of those guys. Our secondary will have grown up by then and UK will crush them defensively.
I'm always a glass half full guy, but damn....
![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
University Six was a really, really bad football team last year and it looked like the S&C staff had left town the year before and just left a note to the linemen to eat lots of pizza and drink plenty of beer. They were the worst FBS team I've seen a UK team play since I suppose UTEP in 2002, and I can't really remember a worse P5 team ever. Satterthorpe is a no nonsense guy, a good coach and will at the very least change the culture, but he's going to need a lot of time to produce a turnaround.They gave up 50+ more than any in P5 history, IIRC!
U6 is looking at a complete rebuild of a P5 team in the 2nd or 3rd toughest P5 conference.
Regardless of what they do have, what they don't have are enough P5-caliber big uglies on either side of the ball.
Ceiling is 4 wins. Floor is 2.
Anyone promoting the expectation of a 6-6 W-L next season outcome is doing Coach Satterfield no favors.
Regardless of what they do have, what they don't have are enough P5-caliber big uglies on either side of the ball.
Ceiling is 4 wins. Floor is 2.
Anyone promoting the expectation of a 6-6 W-L next season outcome is doing Coach Satterfield no favors.
I'm always a glass half full guy, but damn....
I do believe UL was the worst team on our schedule last year. I think Murray St was better. I know that Central Mich was better.
They’re in bad shape, worse than we were when CMS took over imo. They have 8 returning on a poor o-line, one TE, 15 wr’s, and basically starting from scratch on the d. Satterfield is in a 4-5 year rebuild at a minimum and there’s no way in hell they approach six wins. It’s going to be almost as much fun watching them lose on Saturdays than it will be to watch us make our run to another ten wins.
I typically wait until I get my Phil Steele mag before making any personal predictions about how the forthcoming season looks. And I try not to talk about UofL over here unless they are the subject of the conversation. But since they are...![[winking]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/wink.r191677.gif "Winking [winking]")
UofL was a horrible football team in 2018. Just horrible in virtually every aspect of play. 2-10 is an enormous drop off for a team that was an 8/9 game winner against basically the same schedule the previous 4 years. The real question is: Why?
Disregarding luck, I think Performance is the product of 2 factors - Talent and Coaching.
If you look at Talent from a bird's eye view, the UofL 2015-2018 Rival's classes averaged #30.5. For comparison purposes, the UK classes that same period averaged #29.8. (UK certainly had the edge in the 2014 classes but I'm not sure how many of those guys were around as 5th year seniors.)
Which brings us to Coaching. I'm not making excuses but CBP lost his dad (not just his dad but his "football mentor") last year and I have heard rumors of a divorce. His UofL staff included his son and 2 son in laws, at least 2 of which had virtually no big time coaching experience.
Until the recent transfer surge UofL expected to return about 100 players from the 2018 roster, many from those "above average" recruiting classes. There are now about a dozen transfers on record, including maybe 3 or 4 who I thought would be key contributors this year.
But recruiting rankings are one thing and actual on field performance another. And regardless of rankings there are clearly some position holes on the current roster. Regarding 2019, the point is I have no idea how much "real" talent the new staff has to work with and no idea how that talent fits what they want to do. I suspect it will be very similar to UK's style - run the ball and play defense. But I have no idea how good they will be at it.
All that said, it brings me to the topic of the thread. Just this week I took a somewhat detailed look at UofL's schedule. It struck me it divided neatly into successive thirds of 4 games each. To that end:
1st 4 games (ND, EKU, WKU, @FSU): 3-1 would be miracle and 1-3 a disaster. Either result would have a big impact on the season overall but this clearly looks a like 2-2 start.
2nd 4 games (BC, @WF, Clem's Son, VA): IMO, the key part of the season. Clem's Son is a name-your-score game for the Tigers. At this time I have no idea about what returns for the other 3 but 2 of the games are at home. Can they find 2 wins here? 2-2 here would level the record to 4-4.
Last 4 games (@Miami, @NC St, 'Cuse and @UK): Clearly the toughest third of the schedule. 4 good teams, 3 on the road. Any win here would be a steal. Certainly looks like an 0-4 run as of today.
So until we start seeing actual 2019 games, it looks like 4-8; maybe 5-7 season to me.
Peace
UofL was a horrible football team in 2018. Just horrible in virtually every aspect of play. 2-10 is an enormous drop off for a team that was an 8/9 game winner against basically the same schedule the previous 4 years. The real question is: Why?
Disregarding luck, I think Performance is the product of 2 factors - Talent and Coaching.
If you look at Talent from a bird's eye view, the UofL 2015-2018 Rival's classes averaged #30.5. For comparison purposes, the UK classes that same period averaged #29.8. (UK certainly had the edge in the 2014 classes but I'm not sure how many of those guys were around as 5th year seniors.)
Which brings us to Coaching. I'm not making excuses but CBP lost his dad (not just his dad but his "football mentor") last year and I have heard rumors of a divorce. His UofL staff included his son and 2 son in laws, at least 2 of which had virtually no big time coaching experience.
Until the recent transfer surge UofL expected to return about 100 players from the 2018 roster, many from those "above average" recruiting classes. There are now about a dozen transfers on record, including maybe 3 or 4 who I thought would be key contributors this year.
But recruiting rankings are one thing and actual on field performance another. And regardless of rankings there are clearly some position holes on the current roster. Regarding 2019, the point is I have no idea how much "real" talent the new staff has to work with and no idea how that talent fits what they want to do. I suspect it will be very similar to UK's style - run the ball and play defense. But I have no idea how good they will be at it.
All that said, it brings me to the topic of the thread. Just this week I took a somewhat detailed look at UofL's schedule. It struck me it divided neatly into successive thirds of 4 games each. To that end:
1st 4 games (ND, EKU, WKU, @FSU): 3-1 would be miracle and 1-3 a disaster. Either result would have a big impact on the season overall but this clearly looks a like 2-2 start.
2nd 4 games (BC, @WF, Clem's Son, VA): IMO, the key part of the season. Clem's Son is a name-your-score game for the Tigers. At this time I have no idea about what returns for the other 3 but 2 of the games are at home. Can they find 2 wins here? 2-2 here would level the record to 4-4.
Last 4 games (@Miami, @NC St, 'Cuse and @UK): Clearly the toughest third of the schedule. 4 good teams, 3 on the road. Any win here would be a steal. Certainly looks like an 0-4 run as of today.
So until we start seeing actual 2019 games, it looks like 4-8; maybe 5-7 season to me.
Peace
Last edited:
Yeah, a glass half full of hard liquor, and half consumed!
lol......that's some funny stuff. Seems that many there are on the LOU-aid. They have their work cut out for them.....in a word.....D E P T H .
It ain't gonna be pretty. That newly expanded stadium is going to be a ghost town. Look for Kroger tickets early in the season.
It ain't gonna be pretty. That newly expanded stadium is going to be a ghost town. Look for Kroger tickets early in the season.
I typically wait until I get my Phil Steele mag before making any personal predictions about how the forthcoming season looks. And I try not to talk about UofL over here unless they are the subject of the conversation. But since it is...
UofL was a horrible football team in 2018. Just horrible in virtually every aspect of play. 2-10 is an enormous drop off for a team that was an 8/9 game winner against basically the same schedule the previous 4 years. The real question is: Why?
Disregarding luck, I think Performance is the product of 2 factors - Talent and Coaching.
If you look at Talent from a bird's eye view, the UofL 2015-2018 Rival's classes averaged #30.5. For comparison purposes the UK Rival's classes that same period averaged #29.8. (UK certainly had the edge in the 2014 classes but I'm not sure how many of those guys were around as 5th year seniors.)
Which brings us to Coaching. I'm not making excuses but CBP lost his dad (not just his dad but his "football mentor") last year and I have heard rumors of a divorce. His UofL staff included his son and 2 son in laws., at least 2 of which had virtually no big time coaching experience.
Until the recent transfer surge UofL expected to return about 100 players from the 2018 roster, many from those "above average" recruiting classes. There are now about a dozen transfers on record, including maybe 3 or 4 who I thought would be key contributors this year.
But recruiting rankings are one thing and actual on field performance another. And regardless of rankings there are clearly some position holes on the current roster. Regarding 2019, the point is I have no idea how much "real" talent the new staff has to work with and no idea how that talent fits what they want to do. I suspect it will be very similar to UK's style - run the ball and play defense. But I have no idea how good they will be at it.
All that said, it brings me to the topic of the thread. Just this week I took a somewhat detailed look at UofL's schedule. It struck me it divided neatly into successive thirds of 4 games each. To that end:
1st 4 games (ND, EKU, WKU, @FSU): 3-1 would be miracle and 1-3 a disaster. Either result would have a big impact on the season overall but this clearly looks a like 2-2 start.
2nd 4 games (BC, @WF, Clem's Son, VA): IMO, the key part of the season. Clem's Son is a name-your-score game for the Tigers. At this time I have no idea about what returns for the other 3 but 2 of the games are at home. Can they find 2 wins here? 2-2 here would level the record to 4-4.
Last 4 games (@Miami, @NC St, 'Cuse and @UK): Clearly the toughest third of the schedule. 4 good teams, 3 on the road. Any win here would be a steal. Certainly looks like an 0-4 run as of today.
So until we start seeing actual 2019 games, it looks like 4-8; maybe 5-7 season to me.
Peace
Wildcard, very nice analysis. I agree a 6-6 result would be miraculous.
I have no idea what kind of Coach Satterfield is but with the short recruiting class, the mass transfers and Bobby Petrinos complete failure to recruit lineman on both sides of the ball I'd have to believe 6 wins or more a miracle.
Now I do think some of the suffering last year was players quitting on Petrino. They might be more motivated to play for the new staff, I dunno. He'll have to get his team to buy in. Last year when we played them they were pretty much just motivated to commit personal fouls.
Now I do think some of the suffering last year was players quitting on Petrino. They might be more motivated to play for the new staff, I dunno. He'll have to get his team to buy in. Last year when we played them they were pretty much just motivated to commit personal fouls.
With the lack of depth across the board Louisville will limp into Kroger Field. UK should be a 21 point favorite. No way we are losing to those bums
I see no way in hell, how U of L scores 30 points on anybody this year, much less Kentucky.
@WildCard I agree with your assessment of why UL had such a bad season, but I think you missed a very important point on why UL was 2-10 last year.
Roster imbalance. OL and DL were not up to the quality of their opponents. That’s as nice as I can say “They sucked and they sucked HARD”
I’ve watched UK football for over 45 years. I know a thing or two about sucky OL and DL because I’ve seen a thing or two about sucky OL and DL.
Oh, and I’m not seeing that at UK now. But I am seeing it at UL.
Roster imbalance. OL and DL were not up to the quality of their opponents. That’s as nice as I can say “They sucked and they sucked HARD”
I’ve watched UK football for over 45 years. I know a thing or two about sucky OL and DL because I’ve seen a thing or two about sucky OL and DL.
Oh, and I’m not seeing that at UK now. But I am seeing it at UL.
Last edited:
I don't know how you can watch that game and even make that comment even in bright red colored glasses. Kentucky is far superior in the trenches than Louisville, and have a much better QB.
Similar threads
