ADVERTISEMENT

Is it still too early for an "official" Bracketology discussion thread

Creed Bratton

Creed Bratton

All-American
May 31, 2018
12,800
24,648
113
Lex Town
I know some of you guys don't like bracketology discussion too early but the selection show is 3 days away so I think we can safely discuss it now without some of you losing your minds.

As of 1:30 AM today Lunardi still has Duke as a 3 and Kansas as a 4 despite both losing in the first round of their tournament. I also don't understand why one of the 5 Big 10 teams he has in the tournament is a 13 loss Mich St team who finished 8th in the conference. Their only decent win was a fluke win over Baylor where they won by 24.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cowtown Cat
Do conference tournaments play a big roll on seeding in the NCAA? My memory is awful!

Seems like in years past that it didn’t factor much, though I think it definitely should.
 
1. Duke is still a 10 in NET rankings, so I'm sure in Lunardi's eyes, that has something to do with where he thinks the committee will seed them. Duke only played 3 games (1-2) against teams currently ranked in the top 25. They will be a quick out imo.

2. Michigan State is 24th in NET rankings. Same as my thought above.
 
  • Like
  • Sad
Reactions: HenryMuto, BlobUK, nickhorvathsuxazz and 2 others
BlueBomb said:
If Duke is a 3-seed, I hope we someway find our way to the two-line (which we won't) in that same region. I like our chances again this Duke team.

However, I want NO part of UNC. Or Houston.
Click to expand...

My only worry with UNC is that we played them once, and we beat them. They will be familiar with us and will want reveng.

But.. we are so much better now then we are then. We are healthier, we know who to play, guys have emerged. Meanwhile, UNC went through the ACC totally untested (at least Duke has UNC x2), and their guys are laregely the same as they've been for years. Bacot is Bacot. RJ Davis is better, but still, a guy who has no place in the NBA.

Plus, Hubert Davis is far from a proven coach. I don't think he'd have some amazingly crafted game plan for us.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickhorvathsuxazz and Cowtown Cat
bthaunert said:
1. Duke is still a 10 in NET rankings, so I'm sure in Lunardi's eyes, that has something to do with where he thinks the committee will seed them. Duke only played 3 games (1-2) against teams currently ranked in the top 25. They will be a quick out imo.

2. Michigan State is 24th in NET rankings. Same as my thought above.
Click to expand...
How a team like Duke can be in the top 10 NET rankings when they have played 2 games against a ranked opponent in the past 3 months and lost them both is beyond reason. The ACC is trash, they have lost 8 games and have done nothing to deserve a rating that high. The same can be said of Michigan St.
 
  • Like
  • Love
Reactions: nickhorvathsuxazz, Cowtown Cat and westerncat
Creed Bratton said:
How a team like Duke can be in the top 10 NET rankings when they have played 2 games against a ranked opponent in the past 3 months and lost them both is beyond reason. The ACC is trash, they have lost 8 games and have done nothing to deserve a rating that high. The same can be said of Michigan St.
Click to expand...

BuT tHeIr EfFiCieNcY nUmBeRs!
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: bthaunert and Cowtown Cat
Creed Bratton said:
I know some of you guys don't like bracketology discussion too early but the selection show is 3 days away so I think we can safely discuss it now without some of you losing your minds.

As of 1:30 AM today Lunardi still has Duke as a 3 and Kansas as a 4 despite both losing in the first round of their tournament. I also don't understand why one of the 5 Big 10 teams he has in the tournament is a 13 loss Mich St team who finished 8th in the conference. Their only decent win was a fluke win over Baylor where they won by 24.
Click to expand...
You just listed three of the committee's favorite teams to prop up in the annual dance. Lunardi just knows how they'll pick. His goal is to try to match what they pick based off of historical experience, not pick based on sound data.
 
LineSkiCat14 said:
My only worry with UNC is that we played them once, and we beat them. They will be familiar with us and will want reveng.

But.. we are so much better now then we are then. We are healthier, we know who to play, guys have emerged. Meanwhile, UNC went through the ACC totally untested (at least Duke has UNC x2), and their guys are laregely the same as they've been for years. Bacot is Bacot. RJ Davis is better, but still, a guy who has no place in the NBA.

Plus, Hubert Davis is far from a proven coach. I don't think he'd have some amazingly crafted game plan for us.
Click to expand...
There is little familiarity. We had ZERO big men. Our game is quite different now than when we beat them without any 7-footers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 59coop and Cowtown Cat
Creed Bratton said:
I know some of you guys don't like bracketology discussion too early but the selection show is 3 days away so I think we can safely discuss it now without some of you losing your minds.

As of 1:30 AM today Lunardi still has Duke as a 3 and Kansas as a 4 despite both losing in the first round of their tournament. I also don't understand why one of the 5 Big 10 teams he has in the tournament is a 13 loss Mich St team who finished 8th in the conference. Their only decent win was a fluke win over Baylor where they won by 24.
Click to expand...
For Michigan St, I'm with you, BUT they also beat Illinois (currently ranked #13 in nation), Indiana St (most think they're an at-large bid), and Northwestern (20-win team). I'm not saying they're deserving to be in, but they've got a few wins that plenty of "bubble" teams would like.

For Duke and Kansas, I think their seeds SHOULD depend on what other teams around them do now that they've been eliminated in their conference tournament, such as Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina, Illinois, Baylor, etc. Those teams NEED to take advantage of Duke and Kansas losing in order to move into their projected seeds, if that makes sense
 
  • Like
Reactions: CatOfDaVille, nickhorvathsuxazz, Cowtown Cat and 1 other person
TheDude73 said:
There is little familiarity. We had ZERO big men. Our game is quite different now than when we beat them without any 7-footers.
Click to expand...

IDK.. I'm not sure our bigs are going to affect Bacot all that much. Maybe the shot blocking from Ugo.

More so, they are just familiar with our style, the guys who did play. But I also think that's the ONLY positive they have going for them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheDude73
LineSkiCat14 said:
IDK.. I'm not sure our bigs are going to affect Bacot all that much. Maybe the shot blocking from Ugo.

More so, they are just familiar with our style, the guys who did play. But I also think that's the ONLY positive they have going for them.
Click to expand...
It would be a tough game that I'd be perfectly fine with seeing, because that means we made it pretty far in the NCAAT. :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickhorvathsuxazz, Cowtown Cat and LineSkiCat14
TheDude73 said:
It would be a tough game that I'd be perfectly fine with seeing, because that means we made it pretty far in the NCAAT. :)
Click to expand...

Yeah I have no problem seeing UNC again. The same things we ding Duke for (The ACC being weak) actually applies even more so to UNC. They REALLY haven't faced much of a test in 3 months, as DUke has proven to be more like a 25-30th team IMO, than a top10 team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gharding07, Cowtown Cat and Creed Bratton
BBNinSC said:
If they are going to use analytics and formulas to determine which teams get in, just eliminate the committee entirely. A computer can select the field based on real data
Click to expand...
Good point. Seems to me the committee is there to count or discount whatever "metric" necessary to create story lines and generate ratings.
 
247CATS said:
Do conference tournaments play a big roll on seeding in the NCAA? My memory is awful!

Seems like in years past that it didn’t factor much, though I think it definitely should.
Click to expand...
Not a big role, but they are considered, just like any other game.

For KU, and possibly Marquette a factor may be how much they believe injured players return.
The Marquette PG is said may play today though.
But I think Self is saying he expects Dickenson to be good-to-go for the NCAA-T is just so KU doesn't get dropped a seed line or two, that he is unlikely to play.
I remember in 13 the committee said we did not get in because of how we played after Noel injury, so they do consider significant injuries.

Duke being a 3 just makes ZERO sense. They have one win over a top 20 NET team (Baylor), their next best wins are 1 Home and 1 Neutral wins vs NET 20-25 teams. Their best Road win is vs a 40-45 team, they lost their only top 40 Road game (at UNC). And they lost their only 2 Home games vs top 20 NET teams. Add in to that 2 Road losses to teams in 116-125 range. That is NOT a 3-Seed!
Just looking at the resume's based on NET, they look like Illinois, except Illinois doesn't have those two 116-125 Road losses, so behind Illinois
 
I really think seeding is overrated, upsets happen and everyone has to play good teams. KY playing good basketball and getting hot means lots of teams don’t want to see KY in their bracket no matter what seed line we end up on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickhorvathsuxazz and Cowtown Cat
LineSkiCat14 said:
IDK.. I'm not sure our bigs are going to affect Bacot all that much. Maybe the shot blocking from Ugo.

More so, they are just familiar with our style, the guys who did play. But I also think that's the ONLY positive they have going for them.
Click to expand...
I’m not so sure. Hell, Tre and Bradshaw took him completely out of the game last time we played. I could totally see our bigs doing that again. Bacot is so damn overrated.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LineSkiCat14 and nickhorvathsuxazz
BlueBomb said:
If Duke is a 3-seed, I hope we someway find our way to the two-line (which we won't) in that same region. I like our chances again this Duke team.

However, I want NO part of UNC. Or Houston.
Click to expand...
The only, absolute only reason I'd prefer to not see UNC is because of the revenge factor. We're better and deeper across the board.

Houston? I'd like to see somebody knock them out before we get to them....
 
Creed Bratton said:
How a team like Duke can be in the top 10 NET rankings when they have played 2 games against a ranked opponent in the past 3 months and lost them both is beyond reason. The ACC is trash, they have lost 8 games and have done nothing to deserve a rating that high. The same can be said of Michigan St.
Click to expand...
I agree 1000%. There are major problems with the NET and the formulas. It's like Auburn. They are 1-7 against Quad 1 teams but ranked 6th in the NET. People will tell me it's because they play more teams in the 200's instead of the 300's and stuff like that.

My answer was why I think he has them ranked that high, not necessarily that they should be.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gharding07, Cowtown Cat and LineSkiCat14
bthaunert said:
I agree 1000%. There are major problems with the NET and the formulas. It's like Auburn. They are 1-7 against Quad 1 teams but ranked 6th in the NET. People will tell me it's because they play more teams in the 200's instead of the 300's and stuff like that.

My answer was why I think he has them ranked that high, not necessarily that they should be.
Click to expand...

Been saying that about Auburn for weeks. It seems they cracked the code. Schedule teams in the 100 to 200 range and you're good. Never mind that those teams have barely any better chance of beating the Auburns and Kentuckys as opposed to the 260th team.

Oh and while we're at it.. scaled back the marquee games from 4 to just 1. No actual tough games. Just a bunch of crappy power conference programs and decent mid majors like penn and Iona.

Further, I wonder which schedule is more fun for fans. Hard to imagine Auburns schedule being fun for fans when all they had was Baylor.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cowtown Cat and bthaunert
Cowtown Cat said:
I’m not so sure. Hell, Tre and Bradshaw took him completely out of the game last time we played. I could totally see our bigs doing that again. Bacot is so damn overrated.
Click to expand...

Either way, I think our 5-guard system will shell the ever-living shit out of UNC. A bunch of non-NBA bodies trying to stop Reed, Reeves, DJ, Edwards and Dilly lol.

I think UK might make the biggest opening weekend statement of any team. I really thing we are going to go ballistic on teams and people won't know what hit them. 5 NBA guards/wings. And all of them are ready for the pros.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickhorvathsuxazz
BlueBomb said:
If Duke is a 3-seed, I hope we someway find our way to the two-line (which we won't) in that same region. I like our chances again this Duke team.

However, I want NO part of UNC. Or Houston.
Click to expand...
UK's tiny little hope of a 2 seed died when Marquette survived Villanova in OT last night. UK needed Iowa State to lose, too. Alas, a 3 seed is just fine - especially if it's with the 7th or 8th ranked 2 seeds, because .....

... the top 6 are locked in (Purdue, Houston, UConn, UNC, Zona, Vols) as far as being a 1 or 2 seed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gharding07
LineSkiCat14 said:
Been saying that about Auburn for weeks. It seems they cracked the code. Schedule teams in the 100 to 200 range and you're good. Never mind that those teams have barely any better chance of beating the Auburns and Kentuckys as opposed to the 260th team.

Oh and while we're at it.. scaled back the marquee games from 4 to just 1. No actual tough games. Just a bunch of crappy power conference programs and decent mid majors like penn and Iona.

Further, I wonder which schedule is more fun for fans. Hard to imagine Auburns schedule being fun for fans when all they had was Baylor.
Click to expand...
I think the 200s vs 300s debate is stuff from 100 years ago when people used the RPI. Because Tubby did it, feels like proof to some.

Auburn is getting extra juice from being efficient. They score a lot and they defend well. Net pts a lot of emphasis on that. Too much.

Also, people get hung up on Quad 1 wins. Yes, they're 1-7, but they're 9-0 against quad 2. That's not unimpressive. Those teams can beat you. We're only 2-2.

That's our problem. It's not all the quad 4. It's the quad 4 and quad 3. Way too much of those this year. Only playing 15 games that are challenging is kind of embarrassing. More than just Miami cratered.

This isn't just about Auburn. People want to fixate on the Quad 1 to denigrate every thats rated too high.
 
There needs to be a board mandate.
You can't just say someone is seeded too high.
There have to be four 3 seeds.
If Duke isn't one, who are they preventing from getting it.
Sometimes, this board acts like only 23 teams deserve to be in the tournament, and half of them are seeded 6 or less.
 
Gary Parrish moved Kentucky up to #14 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He finally had to crumble and move them to a 4 seed after all the others are losing.

You better beat A&M or he will have you right back down to a 5 seed.
 
Probably the guy I respect the most on bracket predictions is this guy he has won it before and is always near the top

Updated: March 15, 2024 | 7:30 a.m. ET


Seeds 1-24Seeds 25-50Seeds 51-68First 4 OUT
1) Purdue25) Utah St51) VCU ↑Pittsburgh ↑
2) UConn26) St. Mary’s52) SamfordProvidence ↑
3) Houston27) Gonzaga53) UC-IrvineIndiana State ↓
4) Tennessee28) Boise St ↓54) VermontSeton Hall ↓
5) Arizona29) Florida55) CharlestonNext 4 OUT
6) No Carolina30) Texas56) AkronOhio State ↑
7) Marquette31) N’Western57) OaklandKansas St ↓
8) Creighton32) Nebraska ↑58) Morehead StVillanova
9) Baylor33) Colorado St ↑59) ColgateWake Forest ↓
10) Iowa State34) Dayton ↓60) S. Houston
11) Kentucky35) Fl Atlantic61) So Dak StNext In Line
12) Duke36) TCU62) QuinnipiacNC State ↑
13) Illinois37) Miss State63) LongwoodIowa
14) Kansas38) Oklahoma64) Norfolk St
15) Alabama39) Michigan St ↑65) Stetson
16) Auburn40) Texas AM ↑66) Montana St
17) So Carolina41) Virginia67) Wagner
18) BYU42) St. John’s68) Grambling St
19) Texas Tech ↑43) Colorado ↑
20) San Diego St44) New Mexico ↑
21) Wash State ↓45) Drake
22) Wisconsin46) So Florida
23) Nevada ↓47) Ja Madison
24) Clemson48) Princeton
49) Gr. Canyon
50) McNeese ↑
 
On Bracket Matrix, the 7th one is called "ACC" and links to some guys page, named Drew Lester.

And sure enough, all 4 ACC teams are ranked above where they should be.

They just letting anyone make brackets huh? Lol. This guys bracket is called "ACC" and he's overvalued every ACC team lol.
 
I have been digging though bubble teams resumes all day and I just did a peak at Virginia and besides watching them being awful on the court omg their resume is awful I sure wish they had lost to BC I rather see Indiana St in over this team.

NET 50

Best Non conf wins (vs Florida, home to Texas A&M)
Best conf wins (at Clemson, home to WF) yep that's it
Worst losses (@ND, @Memphis, home vs Pitt, @NC St, @Va Tech b by 34)

Quad 1 = 2-6
Quad 2 = 8-3
Quads 3+4 = 13-0

So quad 2 is what they are hanging their hat on

They have 2 wins vs tournament teams Florida and Clemson
They have 1 win vs a bubble team Texas A&M (and 1 win vs Pitt)

They will make it I am sure but JFC
 
At lot of average schools get a bid they have to fill 68 spots. Tennessee should be a 3 seed at best if they can’t win today.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Creed Bratton

Bracketology 2/20

Replies
55
Views
2K
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
Dontworryboutit23
Dontworryboutit23
Cats192

Bracket upset picks? Provide as much reasoning as you can

Replies
8
Views
605
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
WeWant9
WeWant9
BigKari

Too Early SEC Preview and Preseason Rankings

Replies
6
Views
1K
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
Padsfs07
P
Cats192

Games to keep an eye on this week

Replies
20
Views
2K
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
Cats192
Cats192
AGEE11

Path to a #2 Seed is There

Replies
90
Views
4K
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
Smashcat
Smashcat
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back