Path to a #2 Seed is There

[Runnin'Ramel]

That Marquette winner closed the .01% chance UK had at the 2 seed, I'd say, for those who still believed it was possible. Hell of an ending. I still believe Shaka Smart would CRUSH it at a blue blood.

Beat the Aggies. Period. Hate that squad, and UK never should have lost that game this season.

 

[Aike]

Played the most Q3 and Q4 teams of anyone not named Gonzaga or St. Mary's in the top 30 of the NET. Good scheduling work!

So, yeah, a #2 seed isn't happening ... I've said for several weeks you want a 3 or a 6 ... stay off the 4/5 line with this year's crop of #1 seeds.

One of the craziest parts of this schedule is that we also played in the summer in Canada.

Kind of hard to use youth as an excuse for the schedule when the team already got a nice preseason warm up.

 

[gharding07]

Agree with this. I don't think we can work our way up to a #2 (I hope I'm wrong). The committee can use the UNCW loss to keep us down a notch. They have to have something to justify their seeding and that's an easy one to quote.

Another problem is we don't have that many quad 1 and 2 wins. For example, combined Creighton has 15, Arizona 15! Iowa St 14, Marquette 14, Baylor 14. We have 8. Another part of the problem is Miami and Louisville were awful. That would have been 2 more but even then we're still short of all those teams.

 

[mcwildcats04]

Let's just win tonight and (hopefully) lock up that 3 seed. Perfectly happy with a 3 seed.

 

[gharding07]

Let's just win tonight and (hopefully) lock up that 3 seed. Perfectly happy with a 3 seed.

Yep, this!

 

[JonathanW]

No way we get a 2 seed. Neither is Duke.

Then who is getting that last one?

You are absolutely correct about it not being Duke. I don't see how they can even get a 3.
Illinois, Auburn, S.Car., KU aren't getting it either.

The only schools with a chance are UK, Creighton, Marquette & Baylor.
- Creighton is already done, losing to lowly Providence yesterday. That gives them 9 losses, including 2 to Providence, and 1 at home to Butler.
- Marquette if they win the BE-T, probably does get it, as it would likely mean a win over top 3 UConn. But otherwise they too will have 9 losses. Also losing at home to Butler, and at Providence.
- Baylor if they don't win the B12-T will have 10 losses.
** But these 3 still have good resumes. But are they better than UK's, IDK, maybe, maybe not. **
- UK if wins the SEC-T will have a very impressive past 11 games, with 2 Road wins at 2 top 10 NET teams, 1 Home win vs top 10 NET, and likely 2 Neutral court wins vs top 10 NET; 5 wins vs top 10 NET in past 11 games, 6 on the season. No other team would have a more impressive set of wins vs top 10 NET teams.

So if we win the SEC-T are we certain to get the last 2? No.
Are we certain not to get it? No.
I would put the odds right now at:
Marquette 30%
Baylor 25%
UK 25%
Creighton 20%

 

[gharding07]

Then who is getting that last one?

You are absolutely correct about it not being Duke. I don't see how they can even get a 3.
Illinois, Auburn, S.Car., KU aren't getting it either.

The only schools with a chance are UK, Creighton, Marquette & Baylor.
- Creighton is already done, losing to lowly Providence yesterday. That gives them 9 losses, including 2 to Providence, and 1 at home to Butler.
- Marquette if they win the BE-T, probably does get it, as it would likely mean a win over top 3 UConn. But otherwise they too will have 9 losses. Also losing at home to Butler, and at Providence.
- Baylor if they don't win the B12-T will have 10 losses.
** But these 3 still have good resumes. But are they better than UK's, IDK, maybe, maybe not. **
- UK if wins the SEC-T will have a very impressive past 11 games, with 2 Road wins at 2 top 10 NET teams, 1 Home win vs top 10 NET, and likely 2 Neutral court wins vs top 10 NET; 5 wins vs top 10 NET in past 11 games, 6 on the season. No other team would have a more impressive set of wins vs top 10 NET teams.

So if we win the SEC-T are we certain to get the last 2? No.
Are we certain not to get it? No.
I would put the odds right now at:
Marquette 30%
Baylor 25%
UK 25%
Creighton 20%

Marquette and Baylor both have much better resumes than we do. Iowa St also does to this point. Even if we rack up 3 quad 1 wins we're not getting it. If recency bias was a thing then maybe. But it's total body of work. 0 percent chance.

 

[JonathanW]

Marquette and Baylor both have much better resumes than we do. Iowa St also does to this point. Even if we rack up 3 quad 1 wins we're not getting it. If recency bias was a thing then maybe. But it's total body of work. 0 percent chance.

Actually the resumes are quite close between all 4.

 

[gharding07]

Actually the resumes are quite close between all 4.

Ok fine I'll break it down for you...this is what the committee will look at even before they do a deeper dive(if necessary)
Baylor: quad 1(10 wins) quad 1 and 2(14 wins 14-9) SOS: 2nd, 0 losses outside quad 1 & 2. NET 14

Marquette: quad 1(9 wins) quad 1 and 2(14 wins 14-9) SOS: 8th, 0 losses outside quad 1 & 2, NET 13

Creighton: quad 1(8 wins) quad 1 and 2(15 wins 15-9) SOS: 20, 0 losses outside quad 1 & 2, NET 11

UK(assuming we win today); quad 1 (7 wins) quad 1 and 2(10 wins 10-7) SOS: 60, 1 quad 3 loss, NET 18.

All 3 of those teams have more quad 1 and 2 wins, no bad losses, better strength of schedules higher NET and Kenpom ranking. Even Iowa St is better than ours. So no, they aren't really close at all. The best we can accomplish is maybe the top 3 seed.

 

[storm1507]

Anyone doubt that once our seeding is broadcast the selection committee says something about the UNCW loss.

 

[Smashcat]

Tennessee upset by Mississippi State; could UK move past the Vols in NCAA Tournament seeding?

Joe Lunardi’s latest projection has Kentucky within striking distance of the Vols.

www.aseaofblue.com