Bracket upset picks? Provide as much reasoning as you can

[Cats192]

Drake over WSU: Drake actually favored by Vegas
NM over clemson: Vegas has NM favored. NM higher in both NET and Kenpom.
Nevada over Dayton: Nevada favored by Vegas. Nevada (and the whole MWC) underseeded.
JMU over Wisconisn: Wisconsin sputtered out to end the regular season. Decent tournament run. I've long felt they were going to lose to whatever 12 seed. James Madison is 52 NET, 59 Kenpom.

McNeese over Gonzaga: All the bracketology guys had Gonzaga as a 7 seed. Seeded two lines too high. 5-12's are always ripe for an upset, now you get what is essentially a 7-12. Mcneese creates a lot of turnovers. Their defense is designed to funnel teams towards the 3 point shot. Gonzaga only shoots 35% from 3 on the season.

Samford over Kansas. Kansas has had a miserable end to the season. I don't buy that HD hurt his shoulder and is 100%. McCullar has looked good, but still isn't 100%. They're just not in a good place.

Oregon over SC. Vegas favors Oregon.

 

[WeWant9]

I haven’t dived all the way in yet, but a possible second round match up that interests me is UNC vs Miss St. That could be a good one and I think Miss St has the talent to win that game.

 

[Cats192]

I haven’t dived all the way in yet, but a possible second round match up that interests me is UNC vs Miss St. That could be a good one and I think Miss St has the talent to win that game.

I agree. Haven't been able to bring myself to pick it as of now.

 

[BlueWhite21]

I haven’t dived all the way in yet, but a possible second round match up that interests me is UNC vs Miss St. That could be a good one and I think Miss St has the talent to win that game.

For me just going on history it's hard for me to take SEC clubs out very far on my bracket. Idk what it is but the SEC always seem to struggle more than the other conferences or thats the way it feels to me. Only school I take past the 1st game is UK, and sometimes Auburn, Florida or Tenn but thats only if they have a 4 seed or better. Even if they do win a game it don't seem to go much farther than that. Good luck hope you hit it big.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm still looking into all of them, so this is subject to change.

Picking Florida over Marquette - Just not sold on Marquette, their best player no-showed last year in the tournament, and this year he's hobbled with an Oblique injury that's likely not going to be fully healed until the season is over. Florida did lost their ultra tall big, but I just think the SEC is more battle tested. I actually could see Marq losing to WKU also.

McNeese over Gonzaga - I think Will Wade is a pretty solid coach, and this just isn't the Gonzaga of years past. Gonzaga, like several other teams, got a win against Kentucky when we really had no identity. I think McNeese would probably be the 3rd best team in the WCC (maybe even 2nd?). And they will force gonzaga into turnovers.

MSU over UNC - I just see this as a tough 2nd round matchup. UNC is a weak 1 seed, and Izzo is still Izzo. Like above, MSU is probably the 3rd best team if they are in the ACC, and they will smack UNC around a bit.

JMU over Wisconsin - Im not even sure this will be much of an upset when the game tips. Wisconsin is trending down, and JMU was a strong enough mid major to get in on their own, not needing to win their conference tournament.

 

[Cats192]

I'm still looking into all of them, so this is subject to change.

Picking Florida over Marquette - Just not sold on Marquette, their best player no-showed last year in the tournament, and this year he's hobbled with an Oblique injury that's likely not going to be fully healed until the season is over. Florida did lost their ultra tall big, but I just think the SEC is more battle tested. I actually could see Marq losing to WKU also.

McNeese over Gonzaga - I think Will Wade is a pretty solid coach, and this just isn't the Gonzaga of years past. Gonzaga, like several other teams, got a win against Kentucky when we really had no identity. I think McNeese would probably be the 3rd best team in the WCC (maybe even 2nd?). And they will force gonzaga into turnovers.

MSU over UNC - I just see this as a tough 2nd round matchup. UNC is a weak 1 seed, and Izzo is still Izzo. Like above, MSU is probably the 3rd best team if they are in the ACC, and they will smack UNC around a bit.

JMU over Wisconsin - Im not even sure this will be much of an upset when the game tips. Wisconsin is trending down, and JMU was a strong enough mid major to get in on their own, not needing to win their conference tournament.

MSU=Mississippi State or Michigan State?

I assume Mississippi. I think they have a real chance to steal one from UNC with Hubbard and crew. Not sure if I can bring myself to pick it.

Agree with everything you've written. I've got McNeese and JMU winning. I labored over Florida and Marquette--1000% agree Kolek won't be 100% for a long time.

I don't think I can pick WKU, but I think there's a slim/outside shot. McHenry is the Conference USA Rob Dillingham. Makes some terrible plays/decisions, then drops 25 in the conference championship.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

MSU=Mississippi State or Michigan State?

I assume Mississippi. I think they have a real chance to steal one from UNC with Hubbard and crew. Not sure if I can bring myself to pick it.

Agree with everything you've written. I've got McNeese and JMU winning. I labored over Florida and Marquette--1000% agree Kolek won't be 100% for a long time.

I don't think I can pick WKU, but I think there's a slim/outside shot. McHenry is the Conference USA Rob Dillingham. Makes some terrible plays/decisions, then drops 25 in the conference championship.

So yeah I meant Michigan State.. And You're right, they still need to win their first game,a nd that won't be easy. I'm probably inclined to pick MissSt as well over UNC.

My problem with the SEC is that I never know which teams will show up. Will MissSt treat this game the way they treated the matchup with UK?

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

Marquette had better watch Western KY
Or they’ll be going home very early

 

[WeWant9]

For me just going on history it's hard for me to take SEC clubs out very far on my bracket. Idk what it is but the SEC always seem to struggle more than the other conferences or thats the way it feels to me. Only school I take past the 1st game is UK, and sometimes Auburn, Florida or Tenn but thats only if they have a 4 seed or better. Even if they do win a game it don't seem to go much farther than that. Good luck hope you hit it big.

Agreed. I haven’t picked it just yet, and I’m sure if I do they get drummed first round lol