Path to a #2 Seed is There

[AGEE11]

Lot of text, TLDR at the bottom.

Houston, Purdue, UConn all 1 seed locks no matter what

UNCheat, UT, Arizona all 2 seed locks and no lower, one of them is the 4th 1 seed, most likely UNCheat since they are the only decent team in a garbage league and should win their tournament. Arizona is in the same boat, but UNC has a better resume and ACC bias in their favor. If UT wins the SEC, they should get it.

UK, Creighton, Iowa St, Marquette, Duke, Illinois - six teams that will fill the last two #2 and all #3 barring an early conference loss.

Marquette and Creighton should play each other tomorrow night. They are 1-1 on the year. Creighton is 1-1 against UConn, Marquette is 0-2. Marquette has better OOC wins (Illinois & Kansas), Creighton only beat Alabama OOC. You have to think Friday's game is for a 2 seed, especially if the winner beats UConn Saturday

Now there's only one #2 seed left.

Iowa St wins the Big 12 and they get it. That conference is really good and they have the metrics to back them up. Getting to the finals means beating Baylor, so that may be all they need to lock up the last 2. They have 2 good wins, Houston and Kansas; and BYU is currently ranked. Strength of the Big 12 is propping them up big time.

If K State does us a solid and beats ISU today, a 2 seed is definitely in play.

Duke and Illinois have us in the metrics which is odd as both play in bad conferences and have one good win between them.

Duke has won 1 O-N-E ranked game all year (Baylor #14). How they are considered a top team is simply bias. They have bad losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, both played opening round games in their conference tournaments.

Illinois has not beat a ranked team N_O_N_E. This is not a top 8 resume what so ever. They also have bad losses to Maryland and Penn State (#12 and #11 in a bad 14 conference league)

Now to us. We are somehow below them both in metrics. Must be the weight of the Wilmington loss. We have wins against UNCheat and Tenn (both top 6 teams). We also have wins against Auburn (#12) and Bama (#19). We have far and away better wins, just 1 worse loss. We have 3 wins that are better than any win the both have.

I don't see how winning the SEC beating Bama or Florida and UT or Auburn doesn't vault us ahead of either of them. If they win their tournaments and don't play UNC or Purdue in the final their shouldn't be a contest.

TLDR:

• All #1 and two #2 seeds are locked.
• Creighton-Marquette winner on Friday gets the third #2
• If Iowa St wins the Big 12 or makes the final beating Baylor, they get the last #2
• UK, Duke, and Illinois are there if Iowa St stumbles. UK should be in the drivers seat due to better wins, but the Wilmingon loss hurts us in metrics.
• Iowa St, UK, Duke, Illinois - who ever wins their conference tournament in that order gets the last 2 seed

Of course this is just my two cents, gets you nothing. Had fun looking it all up last night though.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I'm not trying to sweat it, I think even if we do what's needed and other teams falter, there's still enough justification for the SC to keep us at a 3 and give Duke or ISU the 2 seed.

I just don't want a 4-seed, that's what's most important.

 

[Aike]

It isn’t just the Wilmington loss. We played too many poor teams. Had we shifted some of our Q3 and Q4 games to Q2, we are probably a solid 2.

 

[MidseasonTweak]

Don't mind if Duke gets a 2. They are about as fraudulent as it gets. Anyone would be lucky to see them.

 

[KA4Prez]

Marquette will lose tonight against Villanova.
Duke and Iowa State have tough games today.

 

[KA4Prez]

Don't mind if Duke gets a 2. They are about as fraudulent as it gets. Anyone would be lucky to see them.

Give Duke the #2 seed with Connecticut in Boston, MA

 

[KA4Prez]

Of course, if UK gets the #2 seed, they will be the ones against UConn in Boston, MA.

I'd rather be a 3-seed.

 

[MidseasonTweak]

Marquette will lose tonight against Villanova.
Duke and Iowa State have tough games today.

I know Marquette is reeling with injuries, but you really think they blow it against Nova, who almost blew it to a 3 win team?

 

[KA4Prez]

I know Marquette is reeling with injuries, but you really think they blow it against Nova, who almost blew it to a 3 win team?

Yes, in fact I think Nova is a lock to win, after that REALITY check last night.

 

[MidseasonTweak]

Yes, in fact I think Nova is a lock to win, after that REALITY check last night.

Wow. Wouldn't mind seeing the upset, though.

 

[KA4Prez]

Marquette without Tyler Kolek. Get your Nova bets in now. It's -4.5, I'd bet it closes at 2.5.

 

[247CATS]

It isn’t just the Wilmington loss. We played too many poor teams. Had we shifted some of our Q3 and Q4 games to Q2, we are probably a solid 2.

I have not looked but if you can show me that we have played a significant easier schedule than Purdue, UConn, UNC, etc. I will send you $1,000 thru the money transfer app of your choosing.

I think it’s a false statement on your part, so prove me wrong………..

 

[FitchandMurray29]

Am I crazy or was Baylor not in your post about a potential 2 seed?

They win the B12 tourney, they’d have 12 Q1 wins.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

My useless opinion: win tomorrow and I like their chances of going to Dallas on the bottom of the bracket/region with Houston as a 3.

 

[NociHTTP]

Where does the "do you a solid" come from? I've always thought it was an odd, if not disturbing , saying.

 

[SemperFiCat]

I don't care so much about the seeding as I do our placement. Not a hot take, but I'd certainly rather have a more favorable region then a crap region as the last #2. I'm ok with being a #3.

EDIT; I'm honestly just happy to solidly be dancing. Was worried for a stretch.

 

[NociHTTP]

It isn’t just the Wilmington loss. We played too many poor teams. Had we shifted some of our Q3 and Q4 games to Q2, we are probably a solid 2.

And did a poor job of closing out those games. I have confidence that we can up points in the tournament, but I don't feel good about us taking a punch in the mouth from a team like UCONN or Houston, two teams who play great defense and consistently score without a lot of time left on the clock.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I know it's kind of changed recently but could a higher 3 seed get the benefit of being closer to home than the lower seed 2? To me that could be the difference as the caliber of teams you would play as a 2 or 3 aren't that different.

 

[Wildcats1st]

Two seed isn’t in play

 

[DreadLox]

2 and 3 seeds are for all practical purposes identical since the 2 and 3 seeds, if they win, wind up playing each other. Nobody can make accurate, fine-grained assessments of teams. Even in an ideal world. Once you add in politics and fiddling with your match-ups for TV, the NCAA committee's evaluations are as accurate as a 3 year old kid drawing his house and family.

 

[FiveStarCat]

You’re forgetting about Baylor. In the same way Creighton and Marquette are on the same side of their conference and tournament and thus it’s extremely likely one of them makes final and locks up a 2 seed, Baylor and Iowa State are the same in Big 12. 2 seed is unfortunately extremely unlikely because of it. A 3 is just as good to me though, and we are now in the drivers seat now that Kansas is done

 

[247CATS]

Where does the "do you a solid" come from? I've always thought it was an odd, if not disturbing , saying.

“Do you a solid” means to do something for someone as an act of kindness. A favor.

How is that odd or disturbing?

 

[FiveStarCat]

You’re forgetting about Baylor. In the same way Creighton and Marquette are on the same side of their conference and tournament and thus it’s extremely likely one of them makes final and locks up a 2 seed, Baylor and Iowa State are the same in Big 12. 2 seed is unfortunately extremely unlikely because of it. A 3 is just as good to me though, and we are now in the drivers seat now that Kansas is done

I will say that this conference tournament bracket set up for those four teams that is hurting our 2 seed chances is actually helping our 3 seed chances. Only two of those four can make their conference tournament final, so Kentucky should be able to make ground on the other set of teams, assuming Kentucky makes SECT final

 

[ganner918]

Don't mind if Duke gets a 2. They are about as fraudulent as it gets. Anyone would be lucky to see them.

If we're a 3 in their region with them a 2 I'll be happy

 

[BigKari]

Would be great if we got a region with UNC as the 1 and Marquette as the 2.

 

[bthaunert]

I'm not worried about a 2 seed, as it's not a ton different than a 3 seed. As long as we are a 3 and not a 4.

 

[TFCats11]

Take away that 3 game home skid, and we are probably talking about a potential 1 seed😩

 

[kats23]

Time and time again we’ve seen winning the SEC tournament has no bearing on seeding so I don’t know why fans act like it does. They have the seeding in place by late Saturday so I don’t think there’s anything Kentucky can do to get to a 2 seed.

 

[rick64]

Too many bad L's and a lot of the metrics are against UK too. I don't see it.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I think we are a 3.

Where we go depends on where UT is.

 

[Cats192]

I think our hopes for a 2 seed are on life support.

UNC/UT/Arizona will take 2 of the spots. The remaining two 2 seeds likely go to whoever wins between Iowa State/Baylor and Creighton/Marquette.

I don't think either team has to win their tournament. I think the semi-finals matchups are for a 2 seed.

We need both teams in 1 of the 2 conference tournaments to lose. If Baylor or Iowa State are in the Big 12 championship game, they are a 2 seed IMO. If Marquette or Creighton make the Big East Championship, they're probably a 2 seed.

If Baylor+Iowa State fail to get to the finals, the door potentially opens. If Marquette+Creighton fail to get to the finals, the door potentially opens.

 

[Cats192]

At the end of the day, it really doesn't matter. A 3 seed gets us to the bottom half of the bracket. We'll see a 6 seed 2nd round. If we were a 2 seed, we'd get a 7 seed.

Then, you're going to get the same opponent in the sweet 16 regardless. If we're a 2 seed, we'll see the team we would have knocked down to a 3. If we're a 3, we'll see the team that just beat us for a 2.

My hope and prayer is that we get the Midwest with Purdue and Marquette.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

There's also something to be said for "eye test" and getting hot at the end of the season. Having 4 wins running into the SEC tourney means that an SECT win has us on a 7 game winning streak with likely good wins against Q1 teams. That sounds good to a committee.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

It isn’t just the Wilmington loss. We played too many poor teams. Had we shifted some of our Q3 and Q4 games to Q2, we are probably a solid 2.

Played the most Q3 and Q4 teams of anyone not named Gonzaga or St. Mary's in the top 30 of the NET. Good scheduling work!

So, yeah, a #2 seed isn't happening ... I've said for several weeks you want a 3 or a 6 ... stay off the 4/5 line with this year's crop of #1 seeds.

 

[JC CATS]

Don't mind if Duke gets a 2. They are about as fraudulent as it gets. Anyone would be lucky to see them.

If we are a 3 I hope Duke is 2 in our region

 

[HenryMuto]

Not getting a #2 seed you better just hope a #3 is going to happen.

Gary Parrish has us as a 5 seed !!!!!!!!!!

All the metrics have us as a 5 seed

We are never getting a 2 it isn't happening with those metrics

 

[247CATS]

Not getting a #2 seed you better just hope a #3 is going to happen.

Gary Parrish has us as a 5 seed !!!!!!!!!!

All the metrics have us as a 5 seed

We are never getting a 2 it isn't happening with those metrics.

They’re no justification for us to be a 5 seed. Zero. If we are anything but a 2-3 seed, the narrative that the NCAA hates us proves to be true even more.

 

[HenryMuto]

Just better worry about beating A&M otherwise it is #4 seed at best.

The big showdown for a #3 seed might be if we beat A&M and play Bama winner the #3 and the loser #4.

So a #4 seed is very much in play more than any chance to get a #2 seed.

 

[Aike]

I have not looked but if you can show me that we have played a significant easier schedule than Purdue, UConn, UNC, etc. I will send you $1,000 thru the money transfer app of your choosing.

I think it’s a false statement on your part, so prove me wrong………..

First, anyone claiming they will send anyone $1000 is full of crap and not looking for a real answer. No matter what I show you, you are going to say it doesn’t prove my point.

Second, you can pull SOS metrics on each team and compare for yourself. You can look at Q1 - Q4 games for each team and compare for yourself.

Third, all teams aren’t equal in other areas. UCONN may not have a substantially tougher schedule than UK, for instance, but UCONN has dominated the schedule in front of them. Kentucky has not.

 

[247CATS]

First, anyone claiming they will send anyone $1000 is full of crap and not looking for a real answer. No matter what I show you, you are going to say it doesn’t prove my point.

Second, you can pull SOS metrics on each team and compare for yourself. You can look at Q1 - Q4 games for each team and compare for yourself.

Third, all teams aren’t equal in other areas. UCONN may not have a substantially tougher schedule than UK, for instance, but UCONN has dominated the schedule in front of them. Kentucky has not.

The response that I was expecting.

Go work on your model. 😬