ADVERTISEMENT

Path to a #2 Seed is There

It's gonna be interesting to see where the 2 seeds go.

If UT gets the last 1 then I assume 100% Arizona 2 out west. Then you have unc, say Marquette and say Baylor.

Baylor can't go south with Houston and Marquette can't go east with uconn.

Does Marquette get 2 in Midwest, Baylor in East and unc sent to Dallas?

Then on the 3 seed line it depends who is first. If UK is last 3 seed believe we get last pick.

Iowa state would have to go west or Midwest. Creighton would have to go to south or west. Where do Duke and uk go? It's a mess to me to try to guess.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cowtown Cat
Totally agree the focus is on getting at least a #3 to avoid the powerful #1’s until the elite eight. I’ve watched a ton of college ball this year and there are only two teams that are a bad matchup for UK at this point. (If we get lazy on D we can lose to anybody) Houston and UCONN. Houston is the most physical team in the country by a mile and while we have improved tremendously against that style against Auburn & UT. Physicality and rebounding remain our weaknesses. UCONN rebounds really well with a lot of height but isn’t overly physical or athletic. They however run a myriad of highly sophisticated offensive sets with screens all over the place and I worry our defense can’t focus that well against that style of offense.
 
Parrish moved Kentucky up to #16 and dropped Kansas to #17 but if Kentucky loses before Sunday he will move Kansas back up over Kentucky I bet despite how stupid that would be he will do it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cowtown Cat
Lot of text, TLDR at the bottom.

Houston, Purdue, UConn all 1 seed locks no matter what

UNCheat, UT, Arizona all 2 seed locks and no lower, one of them is the 4th 1 seed, most likely UNCheat since they are the only decent team in a garbage league and should win their tournament. Arizona is in the same boat, but UNC has a better resume and ACC bias in their favor. If UT wins the SEC, they should get it.

UK, Creighton, Iowa St, Marquette, Duke, Illinois - six teams that will fill the last two #2 and all #3 barring an early conference loss.

Marquette and Creighton should play each other tomorrow night. They are 1-1 on the year. Creighton is 1-1 against UConn, Marquette is 0-2. Marquette has better OOC wins (Illinois & Kansas), Creighton only beat Alabama OOC. You have to think Friday's game is for a 2 seed, especially if the winner beats UConn Saturday

Now there's only one #2 seed left.

Iowa St wins the Big 12 and they get it. That conference is really good and they have the metrics to back them up. Getting to the finals means beating Baylor, so that may be all they need to lock up the last 2. They have 2 good wins, Houston and Kansas; and BYU is currently ranked. Strength of the Big 12 is propping them up big time.

If K State does us a solid and beats ISU today, a 2 seed is definitely in play.

Duke and Illinois have us in the metrics which is odd as both play in bad conferences and have one good win between them.

Duke has won 1 O-N-E ranked game all year (Baylor #14). How they are considered a top team is simply bias. They have bad losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, both played opening round games in their conference tournaments.

Illinois has not beat a ranked team N_O_N_E. This is not a top 8 resume what so ever. They also have bad losses to Maryland and Penn State (#12 and #11 in a bad 14 conference league)

Now to us. We are somehow below them both in metrics. Must be the weight of the Wilmington loss. We have wins against UNCheat and Tenn (both top 6 teams). We also have wins against Auburn (#12) and Bama (#19). We have far and away better wins, just 1 worse loss. We have 3 wins that are better than any win the both have.

I don't see how winning the SEC beating Bama or Florida and UT or Auburn doesn't vault us ahead of either of them. If they win their tournaments and don't play UNC or Purdue in the final their shouldn't be a contest.

TLDR:
  • All #1 and two #2 seeds are locked.
  • Creighton-Marquette winner on Friday gets the third #2
  • If Iowa St wins the Big 12 or makes the final beating Baylor, they get the last #2
  • UK, Duke, and Illinois are there if Iowa St stumbles. UK should be in the drivers seat due to better wins, but the Wilmingon loss hurts us in metrics.
  • Iowa St, UK, Duke, Illinois - who ever wins their conference tournament in that order gets the last 2 seed

Of course this is just my two cents, gets you nothing. Had fun looking it all up last night though.
The UNCW shouldn't be a huge deal as far as compared to Dook. I wouldn't call it a worse loss as ARK is #112, GA Tech #124 while UNCW is #118. So they have 2 to our 1 in the 100s and we have way more good wins. Their really in a 3 bid conference, I know UVA is in barely but all 9 of their losses were by double digits and to some bad teams. I mean they were blown out 9 times. How the hell can they be in?
 
The UNCW shouldn't be a huge deal as far as compared to Dook. I wouldn't call it a worse loss as ARK is #112, GA Tech #124 while UNCW is #118. So they have 2 to our 1 in the 100s and we have way more good wins. Their really in a 3 bid conference, I know UVA is in barely but all 9 of their losses were by double digits and to some bad teams. I mean they were blown out 9 times. How the hell can they be in?
UNCW was at home making it a worse loss then losing at Arky and losing at Ga Tech individually
 
For sure could be a 4 maybe even a 5

Yeah I don't know where this..."were a 3 seed no matter what" stuff is coming from. Matt Jones I guess. Bracket matrix barely has us hanging on to the final 3 seed, plenty of brackets still have us at a 4 and a tiny bit at a 5. Our NET hangs anywhere from 18-20. Need to least beat Ole Miss/TAMU to hold the 3.
 
There's also something to be said for "eye test" and getting hot at the end of the season. Having 4 wins running into the SEC tourney means that an SECT win has us on a 7 game winning streak with likely good wins against Q1 teams. That sounds good to a committee.
A few years back, they removed the "Last 10 games" criteria.

I think we're one of the 4 best teams. I just think our early season resume is gonna hold us down.

For all the "UNC-W will cost us a seed line" talk, I don't think that loss killed us. We just played too many cupcakes.
 
Yeah I don't know where this..."were a 3 seed no matter what" stuff is coming from. Matt Jones I guess. Bracket matrix barely has us hanging on to the final 3 seed, plenty of brackets still have us at a 4 and a tiny bit at a 5. Our NET hangs anywhere from 18-20. Need to least beat Ole Miss/TAMU to hold the 3.
Bracket Matrix lags a fair bit. Some of the guys are way more active than others. And the less active ones tend to pull a team like us--with a late season surge--down the board.

I've engaged with a couple of the active ones on Twitter. The vibe seems to be that a 3 is the ceiling. If we win tomorrow night, we probably lock in a 3 seed.

I don't think a 5 is on the table. Lose tomorrow night, and we're still a very solid 4 at worst.
 
Bracket Matrix lags a fair bit. Some of the guys are way more active than others. And the less active ones tend to pull a team like us--with a late season surge--down the board.

I've engaged with a couple of the active ones on Twitter. The vibe seems to be that a 3 is the ceiling. If we win tomorrow night, we probably lock in a 3 seed.

I don't think a 5 is on the table. Lose tomorrow night, and we're still a very solid 4 at worst.

I don't think a 5 is possible either. But I don't think 3 is locked either like a lot of people seem too.
 
A few years back, they removed the "Last 10 games" criteria.

I think we're one of the 4 best teams. I just think our early season resume is gonna hold us down.

For all the "UNC-W will cost us a seed line" talk, I don't think that loss killed us. We just played too many cupcakes.
But, Cow and his precious win total as his supporters would say.
 
But, Cow and his precious win total as his supporters would say.
I don't get the "I hate Cal supporters" thing right now.

The team is firing on all cylinders. I want to win. Cal has to coach us. So I'm gonna root for Cal to do a good job. I'd love it if he rode off into the sunset. But while he's coaching a time with a chance at a final 4, I'm sure gonna support him.
 
Let's just win our first SEC game before we start dreaming about a 2 we will not get. We haven't exactly lit up the SEC tourney the last few years.
 
I still doubt it but if there was ever going to be a possible path it would require both Duke and Creighton to lose tonight as heavy favorites and somehow both are currently down double digits. I won't believe it until I see it as far as either losing but they are required losses to have any shot at a 2.
 
UNCW was at home making it a worse loss then losing at Arky and losing at Ga Tech individually
I get that, but it's still a worse net ranking team with a losing record.

Well if any decision to be made they were just 1 and done in a bad conference by a bad team, not a tourney team. If we beat TAM that's another Quad 1 win case closed.
 
Last edited:
We are ranked number 9 in th AP. Theoretically 5-8 ranked teams should be 2 seeds. We only have one spot to move up. You can say that’s not how it works with all the other factors, but theoretically if they’re ranking teams correctly it would be.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cowtown Cat
We are ranked number 9 in th AP. Theoretically 5-8 ranked teams should be 2 seeds. We only have one spot to move up. You can say that’s not how it works with all the other factors, but theoretically if they’re ranking teams correctly it would be.
The AP poll means absolutely nothing when it comes to seeding.
 
  • Like
Reactions: FitchandMurray29
I think the door is about shut. We need Marquette to lose tomorrow to have a shot. The committee may still give them a pass with Kolek out.

As it stands: 1 of UT and UNC will be a 2 seed. Arizona will be a 2 seed. Whoever wins Baylor v Iowa State gets a 2 seed.

Marquette: If they win tomorrow, I think they stay ahead of us regardless of future outcomes. Losing to UCONN on a Neutral court won't hurt them.
 
I expected that response but I’ve been watching basketball a long time and the top 4 ranked teams are almost always 1 seeds, the 2 seeds are usually between 5-10 ranked teams in AP
Well yeah usually the best teams are top 5 in the AP poll.
 
On a happy note: If we win tomorrow night, we should jump the loser of Iowa State/Baylor.

I Think we go to bed tomorrow night as the top 3 seed. Which very likely gets us to the Midwest with Purdue +/- Marquette.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cowtown Cat
On a happy note: If we win tomorrow night, we should jump the loser of Iowa State/Baylor.

I Think we go to bed tomorrow night as the top 3 seed. Which very likely gets us to the Midwest with Purdue +/- Marquette.
Both Iowa St and Baylor have more quad 1 AND quad 2 wins than we do and 0 bad losses. You should do a little more research my man lol.
 
If we are a 3 I hope Duke is 2 in our region
They won't be.

One thing I always bring up to my friends is which bracket we are put in!!! Matt Jones has been going on n on for weeks how we have to win to get closer to home and have fans make the trip. I don't give a crap about any of that. I would love for UK to be put out West where you have no chance of getting UNC,UConn, Kansas,UK in same bracket. Fans don't win NCAA games, good matchups win games. Wait and see where Duke is put. Out West as a 2 or 3 playing St Marys in elite 8 smh
 
I've said if we win tomorrow we are a 3. Just my random opinion. If we lose we will be a 4.
Agree with this. I don't think we can work our way up to a #2 (I hope I'm wrong). The committee can use the UNCW loss to keep us down a notch. They have to have something to justify their seeding and that's an easy one to quote.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT