NBA Draft College Coaches Poll: Kentucky prospects improve as season goes on
By Sam Vecenie Feb 25, 2019
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It’s another edition of the NBA Draft College Coaches Poll. Over the last three weeks, I reached out to 50 assistant coaches across college basketball to assess potential NBA and professional prospects across the sport. I talked to coaches from 25 of the 32 conferences in the country, had over 1,800 minutes worth of conversations, and discussed 227 prospects around college basketball with the unbiased people who know their games best: the coaches who have scouted and played against them.
The crux of the idea: in exchange for anonymity, I asked them to dissect every potential NBA prospect they’ve played this season. The result of these discussions was over 60,000 total words of breakdowns from the opposing teams that have to devise a way to slow down the best players in the country. With all of that content in tow, this week The Athletic will release
a series of articles, spotlighting the most interesting subjects and insights garnered from coaches all across the country.
The goal here is not to have some sort of quantitative analysis confirming where someone should be ranked on my big board. Rather, we were looking for qualitative insights into each of these players’ games. These are the unfiltered, full thoughts of coaches that have played each of these guys. What makes them special? What are their weaknesses? How do they go about stopping them, and how can they be exploited? What are the contextual factors that affect their play?
In this edition, we’ll chat about the four Kentucky prospects relevant to this year’s draft: Keldon Johnson, PJ Washington, Tyler Herro, and Ashton Hagans. They are four incredibly different players who bring entirely different, yet complementary skill sets to the table. Johnson is the two-way, energetic wing; Washington, the inside-out forward force; Herro, the floor-spacing, attack-oriented wing; and Hagans, the defensive guard. Throughout the season, Johnson has been considered the top prospect, but Washington is making a strong push late, and Herro has his fans throughout the league. For the poll, I spoke to four coaches who have played Kentucky this year. Here’s what they had to say on all four players, followed by a quick take from me.
KELDON JOHNSON, KENTUCKY
Relevant Measurements: 6-6, 230 pounds. 6-8 wingspan
Relevant Per-Game Stats: 14.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 49.0 FG%, 41.4 3P%, 74.3 FT%
Relevant Per-40 Stats: 19.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.1 BPG
Advanced Numbers: 19.8 PER, 60.1 TS%, 56.3 eFG%, 9.4 AST%, 15.3 DEFREB%, 12.1 TO%, 0.3 BLK%, 1.5 STL%
First Coach
“That jumper surprised me, man. I was hoping he’d come out and be immature, be loose with the ball, be all over the place, and not knowing what he was doing on defense. He was the exact opposite.
“As talented as Kentucky is, a lot of people around the country would say they aren’t the most disciplined team, they’re able to cover their blemishes by being more athletic than everyone. I don’t think that’s the case. Keldon did a really good job of being one of those guys. He’s shot the ball much better this year. He uses his body well to make space. He can drive it, get to his spot, and make shots over the top of you. He’s really athletic and can get to the rim. He’s able to do that even more now because he’s making 3s.
“If he can become a guy that really buys in and values defending, he is definitely a pro. He’s someone who will excel at that level if he prioritizes defense. Honestly, I didn’t know defense was something he’d subscribe to so early. I thought he’d coast along on his offense and not lock in defensively. He played hard, though. Cal has got those guys’ attention. He’s trying really hard. And as long as he tries, he’s physically gifted enough to really guard the ball.”
Second Coach
“He’s good. Really good. Better than I thought. He’s gone through a bit of a cold spell shooting from 3, but he makes shots where he’ll be able to rise over hapless defenders and hit them.
“Best in the open court, best in transition, getting downhill, getting to his right hand. But he’s competitive. More competitive than I thought. More locked in than I thought. He saw things coming like quick screening actions we usually get teams to fall asleep on. He anticipated them and was ready for it. He had a competitive spirit about him. He wanted to win, and it wasn’t just a high-school, braggadocios kind of thing. He really wanted to win.
“As a high school player, I didn’t think the 3 was an element of his game. I thought it was all getting to the rim or getting to a midrange pull-up. But I think he’s going to be able to make them consistently. I like Keldon. He’s going to be a player.”
Third Coach
“Obviously a high-level player. Obviously, he’s great in transition. Their guards do a great job of kicking the ball up the floor to him. Very right-handed driver. We tried to make him go left as much as possible. I’ve followed up since we played them and he’s shooting it well throughout the season, too. We respected him from out there.”
Fourth Coach
“He’s really good. He’s a slashing, active wing. Really good at reading screens. If he gets a jump shot that is totally consistent, he could be pretty good in the league. I didn’t see an issue with his defense. I walked away thinking he was going to be a for-sure first-round NBA pick.
PJ WASHINGTON, KENTUCKY
Relevant Measurements: 6-8, 230 pounds. 7-3 wingspan
Relevant Per-Game Stats: 14.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 52.7 FG%, 43.9 3P%, 74.3 FT%
Relevant Per-40 Stats: 20.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.6 BPG
Advanced Numbers: 26.8 PER, 60.0 TS%, 57.4 eFG%, 13.2 AST%, 21.2 DEFREB%, 12.5 TO%, 4.4 BLK%, 1.7 STL%
First Coach
“I really like him. We were worried about PJ coming into our game. He played a responsible game. We tried to take him out of our game, but even when we did that we felt he played a really smart game.
“I know he’s undersized, at 6-7 or whatever he is. Where does that find itself in the NBA? I do think he will be a good shooter. He can play with his back to the basket. He can drive it some from the elbows and baseline. I worry about him defensively, but I think he’s tough and competitive. He plays with a good character. He doesn’t play like a goof. He knows what he’s supposed to do. He competes hard. It’s hard over there sometimes because every night it seems like it’s someone on their team’s ‘night.’ It’s Tyler’s night, then it’s Keldon’s night, then it’s PJ’s night. I think he struggled with that at times up until recently. But I think he’s someone who can help you off the bench.
“He doesn’t feel (like an elite athlete) on the floor. I know that when we were playing him, it felt like he was a college athlete more than a pro athlete. We did a good job of keeping bodies in front of him, and he loses a lot of athleticism when you have someone between him and the rim. He does have a quick first step, though, he can drive it better than you think. And I do think he’ll become an even better shooter. But he doesn’t use his athleticism to impact the game much on defense, or on offense, really.”
Second Coach
“I think he’s a monster. He’s without a doubt an NBA power forward. Mixes it up. When he gets the ball, it’s one of those things where you know he’s coming back over his left shoulder to shoot a right-handed hook, but it’s another thing for your guys to try and stop it. He goes into one dribble, takes like a mini jump stop, and then he’s so powerful that it’s hard to stop.
“He really fights for position whereas a lot of guys will just take the ball wherever the defense makes them. He’ll try to catch it deep to the basket and overpower you. Even if you send your guards in there to dig off of him, he’s tremendous.”
Third Coach
“He shot the ball better than I thought he would. We felt like he could make shots, but we were more concerned about him on the block going over his left shoulder with his right hand and then him bullying us on the glass. Then, oh yeah, he can make shots now too.
“If he’s going to stretch the floor, he’s a 4 who knows how to play, can make a jumper. He plays hard, he plays smart. He can do some things with his back to the basket. He moves pretty well. He’s gotten in better shape since he’s been there. He’s a pro, without a doubt.”
Fourth Coach
“We thought he would settle for jump shots and his motor was inconsistent. We wanted him to pick-and-pop. Watching him since then, he’s playing better and being more aggressive. I saw him as a late-first, early-second since then.”