ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Van Hiles analysis makes me wonder: why is playing QB so difficult?

I followed, somewhat, the Titans game yesterday and Levis had a big game. However, he also badly misread the defense that resulted in a pick-6. That has been the knock on him all year - not reading the defense. He has a Master's in Finance from UK. He's no dummy by any stretch. He's played QB presumably for 10+ years. How is reading a defense still that difficult?

The Van Hiles thread makes the same points. Pre-snap our motion man is followed by a CB. According to VH, that means TX is in man coverage with only one safety back (and the play bears out his conclusion). Does BV not see that and recognize it? If not, why in god's name not? He, too, has played football for umpteen years. He's sat in on film study with Stetson Bennett and Carson Beck and the UGa coaching staff. He's studied film with Bush this year. How can he not see what is obvious (at least to VH)? One of the main purposes of putting a receiver in motion is to get the defense to show their hand, is it not? Then, once you understand the basic defense that TX is playing, VH points out where BV should have anticipated throwing the ball once it's snapped - either to the middle on a skinny post or the out pattern, both of which were open. BV had time, had a good play called for the defense and had not 1, but 2 guys open if he just makes the correct read and throws the GD ball. Neither throw would have been that difficult to execute nor would either have required a 25-yard pass. Just guessing that the longest throw would have been around 15 yards (skinny post receiver had plenty of daylight to run, btw).

Judging from his interviews, Brock is no dummy, either. Where is the disconnect? Levis certainly had problems getting to ball to the right receiver (other than Wandale who was ALWAYS the right receiver, imo), Leary had several games where he wouldn't find the easy pitch-and-catch on multiple occasions. Why is it so difficult for a player who has played QB for years to understand the mental aspect of playing the position?

Reasons To Be Excited About UK Football

1. The NFL Draft. There should be a least a few cats getting drafted in April, which is always good for the progam. Key, Brown, Walker, Hairston, Jamon Dumas Johnson, JJ Weaver, D'Eryk Jackson, and Eli Cox. Sure, some may transfer or stay an additional year, but UK should get some exposure throughout the draft. Can't hurt for recruiting for coaches to point at players they helped develop and get into the league.
2. The portal this year. Seems like Stoops has reflected on what works and doesn't work. Players transferring from top programs probably have warts. Perhaps, better to recruit lower level players and sign in bulk. I'm personally hoping to throw as much volume as possible at the offensive line problem and see what sticks. Everything runs through the line. It's a copy cat sport, portal success and best practices should become more apparent collectively.
3. Culture shift. It seems a few players maybe go against the grain culture wise. Sounds like it'll be addressed this off season naturally and they can reinforce how things should be done around here.
4. Our Recruiting class is low key dope. Go sort the class by four stars and reflect on what our old recruiting classes used to look like. Nearly half our class is a four star, that was unthinkable back in the day.
5. Opportunity. We have an opportunity to end the season on a high note. Highlight some of our young players that we'd really enjoy keeping and build some momentum going into next year. I don't gamble much, I usually follow the thinking that Louisville is just not used to playing SEC defensive lines. We will need it this year. Louisville might have the edge. I'm not making a bet this year, but I still like my thought logic.
6. Tech. Stoops could jump in and start embracing technology and AI into the program. He could get ahead on the use of AI to recruit players and boosters. Even better systems and best practices. Who knows if he will?
7. Bush. I'm glad to have a coordinator stay and build continuity. Should make teaching things much simpler for next year, which is really important if we bring in the volume I'm hoping for.
8. Revenue share begins? I don't know much about it, but sounds like it will be a net positive for the program.
9. Politicos and NIL. It seems like the local rich folk are realizing the value of tying themselves to the program and building good favor with it. I think the Crafts announced an NIL win or something like that. Marrow reshares it, etc. Win-Win! Hope to see more of that! We are uniquely Kentucky The more smart people in Kentucky start figuring out how to capitalize on our unique value propositions such as the alcohol industry, etc the more growth we will see. Our local NIL will look completely different in 2030.

Your turn. Give me some more reasons to get excited. I'm sure I could think of a few more....

Football Looking ahead to the offseason

This is going to be a very interesting offseason to say the least. There has obviously been a lot of talk about Stoops' future and my position has always been that the dynamics favored a return, even if there are many valid opinions about the future of the program and the concerns look justified at the moment. My belief right now is that a return is obviously the most likely scenario but the justifiable concerns about trajectory and the program's overall energy right now make the conversation inevitable within the fan base.

I've mentioned that I think Kentucky should look at the smaller school players more in the portal. I don't know how much that will be emphasized but I'm not the only one to hold that opinion. It is clear they have to fix the offensive line. I think that's the source of the vast majority of the issues. Most would probably agree with me on that. There were definitely other issues and offense in general has been an issue often under Stoops but the other issues are less glaring if the line had been more capable this year. I think the issue is primarily talent related.

My opinion has been they need a C, T, T from the portal and I think they should frankly be pretty aggressive in overhauling the room as much as possible, but that's my opinion only. You may end up having to invest a lot in a guy or two early even if it seems like too much (to speak bluntly, given where the sport is it), because there's no guarantee what is available later will be guys you can get or will be good enough. They have to have some substantial upgrades at a couple of spots. That's not writing anybody young off, it's just that you can't have a talent deficit overall paired with little depth and guys playing a year ahead of schedule. We've talked about all the reasons for the situation but the bottom line is it has been ongoing and it's been a hard fix. This has to be the paramount focus in the offseason.

I've recently heard more about UK not needing to take too many players from the portal. I think that could mean that even if there's a loss or two at receiver maybe they don't spend as much time worrying about that and lean on developing the promising younger guys. Defensively, that is where they may need to take more of an all around approach.

One person told me there is less concern about the defense because Brad White does a good job of finding guys who fit the system and develop at a good pace before needing to be featured. One of my own concerns, I guess you'd say, is that a lot of guys who haven't been pushed into bigger roles are going to be counted on quite a bit on defense next year. Soles, Gilbert, Jerod Smith, Addison. Especially on the front seven I would say, given the looming losses. I think you have to be pretty active in recruiting defensive portal players this offseason.

Then of course there's the talk about Brad White leaving. Collins would still be in a position to hold DC duties but White leaving would free up a lot of the assistant coaching pool and you'd have to weigh bringing in an OLB coach or more of a proven defensive coordinator type. Some have told me that "it's still Stoops' defense" while acknowledging White has been a really good fit for them, and has done a good job.

I did hear before the season that Barion Brown probably wouldn't come back for another year but still waiting to hear more on that.

I'll add that I would expect a major decision from a heavily featured current player after the season and it might surprise some.

I'm also going to be writing something about which players have improved or hurt their NIL standing this season because this is going to be a factor in player retention and movement everywhere. But the long and short of it is I expect Boley and Wilcox for sure on offense have improved theirs. Dane Key has. Barion has not met WR1 production and Ja'Mori Maclin's production is way down from where it was last year. The blame can be spread around for that and that will surely be a factor but you know this stuff is already swirling behind the scenes. On the whole, I think a lot of NIL will be freed up this offseason but in the big picture you have to hope the relationships are strong enough to keep the big donations coming after some disappointing recent results.

Scouting Georgia State

Georgia State Panthers
Conference: Sun Belt
Head Coach: Jonas Hayes
Began as Interim Head Coach at Xavier (won NIT in 2021-22)
3rd Season at Georgia State since 2022-23 (32-41)

Schedule (4-3)
11/04 BALL ST. W 71-66
11/08 at Mississippi St. L 66-101
11/13 at Jacksonville St. L 67-72
11/18 TOCCOA FALLS W 106-66
11/22 N.C. CENTRAL W 93-79
11/26 vs Austin Peay L 50-62
11/27 vs Tulsa W 74-71
11/29 at Kentucky (Rupp Arena: 20,545)

Game Info:
At Lexington, KY: 7pm EST
TV: SEC Network (Announcers: John Schriffen and Richard Hendrix)
Online: ESPN+, ESPN App
Radio: UK Sports Radio Net (Announcers: Tom Leach and Jack Givens)

Probable Starters
#7 F Zarique Nutter 6-7 210 Sr 16.2pts, 5.6reb, 3.2ast, 14.3% 3fg
#33 F Nick McMullen 6-8 235 Sr 9.5pts, 10.7reb, 1.3ast, 16.7% 3fg
#4 C Cesare Edwards 6-10 235 Sr 9.8pts, 6.2reb, 1.2ast, 66.7% 3fg
#11 G Toneari Lane 6-5 205 Sr 16.2pts, 2.2reb, 1.2ast, 40.8% 3fg
#22 G Malachi Brown 6-1 175 So 9.0pts, 3.7reb, 3.5ast, 36.4% 3fg

Key Reserves
#10 G Jelani Hamilton 6-6 205 Rs-Fr 9.7pts, 2.7reb, 45.8% 3fg
#21 F Clash Peters 6-9 230 Fr 3.3pts, 5.3reb, 0.0% 3fg
#1 G Malik Ferguson 6-4 190 So 1.6pts, 1.2reb, 1.2ast, 0.0% 3fg
#12 F “DK” Manyiel Dut 7-0 210 Rs-Fr 4.0pts, 3.5reb, 50.0% 3fg

KenPom Analysis
Best Numbers
Offensive Block%: #28 (they don’t get blocked)
Defensive FTA/FGA: #46 (they don’t send folks to the line)
Offensive Rebound%: #105
Worst Numbers:
Defensive TO%: #351 (they don’t force TOs)
2pt FG%: #268
Effective FG%: #250
FT%: #231

Team Statistics
Points Per Game 75.3
Points allowed 73.9
Scoring Margin 1.4
Field Goal Pct .444
FG% allowed .433
3PT FG Pct .338
3FG% allowed .324
FT Pct .688
Rebounds Per Game 41.0
Rebounds allowed 34.3
Rebounds Margin 6.7
Assists Per Game 12.1
Turnovers Per Game 12.4
Assist/Turnover Ratio 1.0
Steals Per Game 5.6
Blocks Per Game 2.1

Analysis: Kentucky welcomes the Georgia State Panthers to Rupp Arena for a day after Thanksgiving matchup hoping stay unbeaten at 7-0 at the end of the day. Georgia State will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days, coming fresh off a trip to Jacksonville, FL and 2 neutral site games against Austin Peay and Tulsa on Tuesday and Wednesday. They get Thanksgiving Day off before returning to action against UK in Rupp. Georgia State split those games, losing to Austin Peay 50-62 but beating Tulsa 74-71, which is their best win by the numbers. On the season, Georgia State is 4-3 but they don’t have a win over any team rated in KenPom’s top 200. They got whipped by Miss State back on November 8th in Starkville by a score of 66-101. This resume lands Georgia St at #220 overall on KenPom.

You may remember the Georgia State head coach Jonas Hayes for his head coaching start back in 2022 where he took over for Xavier Head Coach Travis Steele at the end of that season. He took over the Musketeers after the regular season ended and led them to an NIT title as their interim head coach. When Xavier decided not to permanently promote Hayes (instead re-hiring Sean Miller), he took the head coaching position at Georgia State on April 6, 2022, where he now enters his 3rd season with the Panthers.

Looking at the numbers, the first thing that jumps out at me is that Georgia State struggles to make shots. They struggle from 2 (only making 47.1% from the field), they struggle from 3 (only making 32.7%) and they even struggle from the FT line (only making 68.9%). So, it’s no surprise they rank #250 in the nation (according to KenPom) in effective FG%. Now, we’ve heard something similar just recently, about Western KY. But the difference in this game is that Georgia State’s defense isn’t much better than their offense. Some of their bad numbers are due to a strategy preference, in my opinion. These guys do not take any chances on defense. They don’t go for steals or blocks. They don’t even create turnovers much at all, which is the reason their defensive numbers are so bad. They are pretty good at keeping people from getting to the line for this same reason. They don’t foul much because their goal is to just stay in front and take no risks.

From a personnel standpoint, Georgia State’s best scorers are shooting guard #11 Toneari Lane, a 6-5 205lb Senior averaging 16.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and shooting 40.8% from 3, and small forward #7 Zarique Nutter, a 6-7 210lb Senior who averages 16.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. Lane shoots the threes and Nutter drives and dishes, but isn’t much of a 3pt threat. The leading rebounder on the team is #33 Nick McMullen, a 6-8 235lb Senior forward averaging 9.5 points, 10.7 rebounds. He doesn’t shoot 3s, but he’s nearly averaging a double-double. The center is #4 Cesare Edwards, a 6-10 235lb Senior averaging 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and shooting 66.7% from 3 (2-3 on the season). The final starter is the point guard #22 Malachi Brown, a 6-1 175lb Sophomore averaging 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and shooting 36.4% from 3.

From the bench, the biggest scoring threat is #10 Jelani Hamilton, a 6-6 205lb Redshirt Freshman averaging 9.7 points 2.7 rebounds and shooting 45.8% from 3. He’s coming in to shoot and 27 of his 47 attempts are from 3. He has the 2nd most 3pt attempts on the team, behind only Lane. After those first 6, there aren’t many players scoring much. Back-up big man #21 Clash Peters is a 6-9 230lb Freshman who averages 3.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and doesn’t shoot threes. #1 Malik Ferguson is a 6-4 190 sophomore guard averaging 1.6 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 1.2 assists and is 0-9 from 3. #12 F “DK” Manyiel Dut is a 7ft 210lb Redshirt Freshman who has only played in 2 games, scored 8 total points on the season and is only on this report because he’s a 7-footer and his name Dhiaukue. He has made 1 of 2 threes on the season, which was in Ga State’s game against Taccoa Falls College which is a Division 2 National Christian College school. He probably won’t see the floor against UK.

What to expect: This will be a blow-out for UK. According to the numbers, Georgia State and Bucknell are rated about the same, though Ga State is slightly better. How good will Georgia St be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with 6 primary scorers? The panthers want to get to the rim, similar to Western KY, but they’re not making many of those shots. UK’s defense will cause serious struggles for the Panthers. I expect a score similar to what Ga State got at Miss St. KenPom predicts UK 90- GSU 66, Haslametrics says UK 94-GSU 70, Bart Torvik predicts UK 93-GSU 66, and EvanMiya says UK 95-GSU 64. I think UK will be irritated at themselves after that WKU game and will come out ready to fight.

My Prediction: Kentucky 106 Georgia St 62

Interesting quote

From Eli Cox yesterday in player Q&A when asked about what UK needs to do to fix the oline and use of the portal.

"I think there's a lot that goes into that. I think it goes to adapting to the new age of college football. The world has changed drastically since I entered college. The way you go about building a culture and a program has changed drastically. It was out of the norm for guys to transfer and transfer back when I first started college.
“When I was here and I was learning what college football was all about when I was a true freshman with Coach Schlarman and those guys. Drake, Luke Fortner, Mason Wolfe, Landon Young, Kenneth Horsey, Darian Kinnard, Quintin Wilson, Austin Dotson. I could go on and on down the list of guys who were in this program for 4, 5, 6 years that were all here and were roommates and were teammates and were classmates for years and years and years. And they came from similar backgrounds. Just the culture that those guys instilled and built. That's just in our room but I think it goes for the program as a whole.”
“You were able to recruit guys that matched that culture and you weren't caught playing this portal catch-up game that we're stuck in nowadays. Like Coach Stoops has said in conferences with you guys before, he's going to adapt, and you can't go about building programs the way we have before. Because clearly it’s not been working. I think there's been a drop-off and a dip and the product on the field starting really in kind of the last 2-3 years. Starting in 2022.”
“That's just something we have to learn to adapt to in college football. How can we go about bringing in talented guys but also guys that are brought into the culture of Kentucky? Being a blue collar program. Being a nasty, blue collar operation that Coach Stoops has built the success of this program on.”
“So just finding a way to get back to that while also bringing in talented guys as well. It's a multi-faceted issue. It's not an overnight fix. I think this program's in great hands and has been for 12 years."

FB Recruiting New official visit set for this weekend

Kentucky has interest in Minnesota defensive back commitment Grant Grayton of Good Counsel in Maryland. He committed to the Gophers over the summer and it was relayed to me that a number of staff members have been in touch with him.

I connected with Grayton today and he confirmed that since Kentucky has offered the staff has been in contact with him every day since it started up.

There are plenty of other defensive backs Kentucky has looked at but it has gotten a little more serious with Grayton. In fact, I know that Kentucky is pushing hard for him to officially visit this weekend.

Think they have a great shot here.

Login to view embedded media

Saw the weaknesses of our team against WKU

I know the game was never in doubt. However, observation reminded me of our game against Oakland. It seemed the game plan was to take advantage of the inside superiority. So, the offense that has been spectacular by an inside out game reversed to outside in which led to bad passes and turnovers. I will always be convinced that Reed's bad game occurred because he was Cal coached to get that ball to the paint players. It seemed to be similar against WKU and it also explained the missed 3's as they were rushed without the typical perimeter passing we had seen before. I will keep my fingers crossed that these issues will be corrected but it is the first game where I could see us losing to good teams.

NIL Priorities for 2025

Given finite NIL funds…

1. Don’t pay above market rate for Barion Brown.
2. Don’t pay above market rate for Brock.
3. Don’t pay above market rate for last year’s OL transfers. I’ve not seen much to warrant a bidding war for their 2025 services. If they return at discount rate then good.
4. Don’t pay above market rate for Traynam.

Bright spots…

1. Maintain and develop current WR corps with improved QB play.
2. Young RBs seem promising. Build with them.
3. Kicking game
4. DB corps has been recruited and developed internally. Retain previous transfers.

NIL funds prioritize in this order…

1. A transfer QB. I don’t trust Boley to be a starter based off what he did against FCS, 1-9, Murray St. NOW, if you want to find out what ya got, and if you want to be able to compare while QB shopping in the portal next month, then play him a good bit in the next two games. Keep in mind that may expose him to his own NIL recruitment. There are always trade-offs.
2. DT and DE transfers
3. ILB transfer
4. OT and OG transfers
5. Best available: OLB, RB, and CB.

Addendum: Keye probably earned a NIL bump. I would entertain a bidding war to a to 30% over what he’s making now but beyond that I get concerned about the opportunity costs for other transfer needs highlighted above.
  • Haha
Reactions: BlueTick2
ADVERTISEMENT

Filter

ADVERTISEMENT