Why does everyone assume Reed is gone??

[stuway]

The more logical and rational question is OP, why do you assume that he’s not gone?

This is the perfect draft for a player like him to take advantage of. He’s one year closer to a second contract. He can get multimillion dollar endorsement deals alone. He’s NEVER going higher than he will in this draft, and on and on and on!

Never mind, I’ll play…

Why does everyone assume Reed isn’t going to stay all 4 years? Heck, he could even Redshirt a year and train behind the scenes, and technically get a 5th year! After that, he could become a Graduate Assistant and forgo the NBA all together!

This place becomes a clown show during times like this🤡🤡🤡

Thanks for being rude. We'll see smartass. He has already dropped on draft boards, he won't be a tiop 10 pick and he will be back because of that and his love for UK and some great NIL deals. Bring it on haters, my mind won't change until he declares.

 

[Easternkybb]

I could see it all over Cals face all year that the Sheppards along with our programs legacy is not bigger than him.
You can think and say what you want but Reed should’ve been starting atleast by the NCAA tourney. We wanted him to start after he earned it but Cal the don is all he cares about.
I can’t remember exactly what he said but something along the lines of I can’t play your favorite player if he can’t defend straight line drives. Just a bitter scumbag Cal is to me.

 

[clevenger32]

I have never thought that Reed would leave after this year. In fact, I think he’ll be here at least three years. I think he’ll stay as long as it takes him to get his degree.

 

[JonathanW]

Why? Because some are too simplistic, and just think "everyone leaves". When in reality, many situations are different, unique. And they ignore facts/data that do not support their theories (for example WCS returning when he was a projected 1st round pick).

There are personal reasons why Reed would consider returning. Both playing for the team he's dreamed of playing for since a kid and the team both his parents played for, AND not rushing to become an adult moving to a big new city alone very different from anywhere he's lived before and being able to enjoy "the college experience". Not to mention getting closer to graduating (if that's important to him). And he is not in the situation many are in where they are being pressured to make $$$ asap to help remove their family from generational poverty.

There are also basketball reasons, as we saw in his final game where he not only disappeared, but just didn't play well. Happened a few other games to (i.e. USC), which makes you wonder if he can go out and get-his, create for himself, when he needs to. He most definitely did vs MSU. But consistently, IDK. AND more than that, is he physically ready (both strength and quickness), and I think the answer to that is definitely "No". IMO he will be manhandled by grown-ass Men in the NBA, at least next year. And so because of that, I think if he were to leave this summer, it may take him a bit longer than players who are already physically "ready" to develop into a good NBA player. And even that has questions, some think his skill set may be better for college ball than pro ball, the biggest pro limitation being his quickness. But the longer it takes him to develop, affects the next set of reasons...

Financial! Yes he can almost certainly be a 1st round pick, probably a lottery pick, possibly top half of lottery. But his goal shouldn't be to get there, to sign that first contract. It should be to maximize how long he can play there and maximize how much he can make there. But if he goes too soon, he could not be near his performance ceiling when it's time for that 2nd contract (which can be the really big one, much bigger than the draft contract). So by waiting 1 more year, and getting stronger and hopefully a little quicker, and becoming more of that "go-to scorer" when needed, and better defender, and better able to not fall to pressure or distractions, he could increase how much money he can make on that 2nd contract significantly.

So, he should be asking himself more than is he "ready" skill-wise. But is he also "ready" physically, mentally, maturity-wise, and emotionally.

 

[Cats192]

In general, I think kids from Kentucky want to play in the NBA just as much as kids from New York or Chicago.

It's a weak draft. Reed could maybe improve some things next year. But he could also improve those same things in the NBA. There's this thought process that only college can get you more physically ready. The NBA is pretty good at the whole strength/conditioning stuff. Look at Giannis as a rookie vs now.

There's also a world in which Reed's draft stock goes down next year.

I'm not sure that I buy staying a year helps him stay in the NBA longer. If he's going to get to a level of being able to contribute in the NBA--he can do that in the NBA the same as he can in college. And he'll be 1 year closer to his 2nd contract--where the real money is.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope his boyhood dream of taking Kentucky to a national title wins out.

But logically speaking, most lottery picks take the NBA over the school they grew up dreaming of playing for.

 

[susan2361]

He’s not coming back. Especially to regress under Calipari’s shit coaching.

Him being from Kentucky doesn’t = passing up $16 million dollars to come back and play for a coach that runs no offense and admittedly didn’t start him so other players feelings wouldn’t get hurt.

I’d advise him to declare 100% if he was my son.

How can any AD allow a coach to stay the coach, when he ADMITS that he doesn't start someone, (who's EARNED it!) because he doesn't want to hurt another players feelings? And by doing that, a couple of games were lost that maybe could have been won? I just don't understand what Barnhart is thinking. Cal has done several questionable things that have raised red flags, but seemingly nothing from Barnhart except keeping him as coach. What else would Cal have to do in order for Mitch to finally pull the plug?😡

 

[FrankUnderwood2.0]

How can any AD allow a coach to stay the coach, when he ADMITS that he doesn't start someone, (who's EARNED it!) because he doesn't want to hurt another players feelings? And by doing that, a couple of games were lost that maybe could have been won? I just don't understand what Barnhart is thinking. Cal has done several questionable things that have raised red flags, but seemingly nothing from Barnhart except keeping him as coach. What else would Cal have to do I. order for Mitch to finally pull the plug?😡

Agreed 100%, Susan.

 

[wkycatfan]

I think Reed is back. DJ too.

 

[yes_takeaside]

I would say, if Calipari leaves, Reed will likely leave. So, if I have to choose between a 2nd year of Reed or another year of Calipari's coaching, what do I choose? That's a good question. As a lottery pick, it would be tough to turn that down. If the Sheppard family has inside info on a potential new coach and they like that person, it's possible he returns. The NIL money has to help the situation. He's gonna be set for life no matter what he chooses.

What is most likely? I have a feeling Calipari gets one more season. That's not what I want, but I think it will likely happen. If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Sheppard returns as part of a package deal, so to speak. The "revenge tour," as Calipari mentioned in the show last night (I didn't listen to it, but I've read a transcript). Cal may use some returnees as some leverage to get another year. I'm just reading between the lines.

For my part, I say just cut Calipari loose and let the chips fall where they may. Get on a coaching search ASAP and get that new coach in place before these players have to make a final decision. Maybe, if it's the right coach, some of them will stay. Otherwise, I have a feeling we will see a complete roster turnover. I'm willing to deal with that at this point, though. Just get ready for that if Cal is fired.

Reed would be upset that a coach who wouldn’t start him is gone???

Some of you make no sense.

Like I said in another thread, if a legacy recruit who’s always dreamed of playing for Kentucky, leaves after 1 year, then you might as well shut down the program.

If I was Reed I would stay all 4 years but that’s just me.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Reed would be upset that a coach who wouldn’t start him is gone???

Some of you make no sense.

Like I said in another thread, if a legacy recruit who’s always dreamed of playing for Kentucky, leaves after 1 year, then you might as well shut down the program.

If I was Reed I would stay all 4 years but that’s just me.

We never heard a single word from Reed or his family about his not starting. Fans here think it should have been seen as an insult to Reed and his family, but they clearly don't agree with that. By all accounts, Cal's relationship with Reed and the Sheppards was very positive. So, what makes sense? It would make sense that a guy projected in the lottery would likely leave if the coach who recruited him was fired. That makes complete sense. The only way I'd see Reed staying without Calipari is if he and his family knew and loved the replacement of that coach. Otherwise, it seems likely he would leave.

Now, having said that, I also wrote in my post above that my choice would be to cut ties with Calipari and let the chips fall where they may. I don't think that will happen right now, though. I am pretty much expecting Cal to get one more season with changes demanded.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

If I were advising Reed I would have him go through the process with the option of returning.

Go look at a mock draft. This class is abysmal, almost beyond belief. If he’s guaranteed to go top 15-20 I would advise him to go. If the NBA however thinks while he had a great season, he doesn’t project as more than a bench role player and thus they won’t draft him top 20 then I’d say to come back. That NIL will be monstrous. If I’m Reed’s advisor, I also want Cal to guarantee he starts Reed at PG. I believe he’ll start next year regardless but I wouldn’t want some timeshare at the point with Boogie. I’d tell Cal Boogie is the backup PG and a SG for my client to return. His future is at PG and he needs experience running it to prepare him for his pro career.

 

[ukfan1622]

If Cal and DJ come back Shep will be gone. There is no doubt both Sheppard parents didn't like 2 lesser players starting all year ahead of their son and it's one thing to not be a starter as a frosh when everybody thinks
he should start. But if he comes back next year and is a backup to Fland and an improved DJ, it will really hurt
his draft stock. So I think this talk of being happy with another year if it also meant Shep coming back is kind of crazy. I think it's a choice; we'll either get Sheppard back or we'll get Cal back.

 

[NoDef]

I don't think he can improve his draft stock. It would be hard to replicate those numbers next year..

 

[moses1uk]

His stock had to tank after the last game .

 

[ukfan1622]

Now, having said that, I also wrote in my post above that my choice would be to cut ties with Calipari and let the chips fall where they may. I don't think that will happen right now, though. I am pretty much expecting Cal to get one more season with changes demanded.

But what could those changes be?
Cal promises to begin starting his best five players?
He remembers how to coach defense again after apparently forgetting how to do that?
Lets' his assistants do all the coaching and decide the lineups and in-game coaching while Cal recruits and is a figurehead?
That last one is the only one I could see working and it depends on how good the assistants are and I suspect that Cal wouldn't go along with that one anyway.
Hiring new assistant coaches will not help since Cal doesn't listen to them.

 

[know1]

His stock had to tank after the last game .

Nope. That's not how it works.

 

[blubo]

But what could those changes be?
Cal promises to begin starting his best five players?
He remembers how to coach defense again after apparently forgetting how to do that?
Lets' his assistants do all the coaching and decide the lineups and in-game coaching while Cal recruits and is a figurehead?
That last one is the only one I could see working and it depends on how good the assistants are and I suspect that Cal wouldn't go along with that one anyway.
Hiring new assistant coaches will not help since Cal doesn't listen to them.

just a hunch—cal ain’t changing sh!t

 

[FrankUnderwood2.0]

This doesn't make sense to me but a lot of ppl keep saying that. The Sheppard's are KY people, not Cal groupies. Cal just had an entire season where he failed to make Reed a starter and where he failed to teach Reed basic fundamentals of defense. Why in the world would they be Calipari or bust?

My thoughts exactly. Is it worth coming back another year whilst missing out on $16-$20+ MILLION dollars to play for a coach who publicly and admittedly didn’t start you because he didn’t want to hurt another players feelings? Who is to say Reed wouldn’t come off the bench again next year so another player doesn’t have his feelings hurt?

Additionally it’s not like UK made it to the FF or were a close game or 2 (or even 3 or 4) away from a title. They lost in the first round. He has no business coming back regardless who is coach. Imo of course.

 

[wldktz8]

this:

NBA Rookie Scale - RealGM

NBA Rookie Scale - RealGM

basketball.realgm.com

lets say he's picked 10th.

Year one: $4,409,500
Year two: $4,629,900
those are guaranteed no matter what happens

Year three: $4,850,200
this is a team option, but it is almost always picked up. Very rarely is it not.

Year four: $6,184,005
Right before this year is the time you can sign your extension

Year five: $7,090,992
after this year your extension kicks in, which even for role players is about $15 million a year

Any other questions?

That kind of money will only dictate lifestyle. It will not dictate survival. He could make $1 million next year and be set for life with smart investing decisions.

 

[UKFAN4L]

Someone at my work today asked if Reed was point shaving against Oakland.
Things that make you go hmmm.

 

[83Cat]

He gone.

 

[83Cat]

I understand his draft projections. I understand our history of losing kids after a year is par for the course

However with all that said, Reed grew up in Kentucky as a UK fan. All these other 1 and dones are from outta state

I believe he will easily make a few million her next year. Couple that with him needing to improve in a few areas, I think he comes back.

I honestly think we get a lot of this team back.

It's gonna suck because the coach isn't gonna change. I do firmly believe Reed has unfinished business with UK basketball. He stays IMO. What's say you BBN??

If he was your son, what would you suggest he do? Pass up the dream of the NBA that was almost a pipe dream for him before this season? What if he came back and had a career ending injury or even an injury that dropped his value? Unfortunately, money trump's school pride, even if your Daddy was a legend. I have four kids (adults now). While I would love to say that I'd suggest he come back to UK another year, it would not be good advice I don't think. I DO hope I am wrong. I'd love to see him wearing UK blue and white next year. We need him, but I cannot imagine it happening.

 

[IL Wildcat]

But what could those changes be?
Cal promises to begin starting his best five players?
He remembers how to coach defense again after apparently forgetting how to do that?
Lets' his assistants do all the coaching and decide the lineups and in-game coaching while Cal recruits and is a figurehead?
That last one is the only one I could see working and it depends on how good the assistants are and I suspect that Cal wouldn't go along with that one anyway.
Hiring new assistant coaches will not help since Cal doesn't listen to them.

I agree with you, which is why I say cut ties and let the chips fall where they may. I've come to the conclusion that the issues can't be fixed. Someone might suggest the main issue is recruiting freshmen one and dones. Someone might suggest that the issue was defense with this last team. Cal is talking about working on defense over the summer. Another issue might be a philosophical one, like worrying less about players' feelings and more about winning. But I say Calipari has lost his edge. He didn't have youth issues against St Peter's. That team had multiple upperclassmen. He didn't have defense issues with Kansas St. That team's defense and rebounding was very strong. He didn't have guys starting because of Cal was worried about hurt feelings in either of those seasons, either.

So, what is the common denominator? Calipari is the issue in my view. I'm not sure what has happened to him (maybe something related to covid and coddling players, not sure) but it's become clear to me that Calipari is the problem. I don't think program changes will help. He needs to go. He's done here.

 

[bucsrule8872]

If it’s only about the money, he is gone.

If he cares about other things, then he might stay.

Right now, no one knows what he is going to do. He probably doesn’t know.

 

[JFCats22]

Thanks for being rude. We'll see smartass. He has already dropped on draft boards, he won't be a tiop 10 pick and he will be back because of that and his love for UK and some great NIL deals. Bring it on haters, my mind won't change until he declares.

No he hasn’t dropped. Givony has him at 7, Vecenie has him at 5. Those are the only two mocks to pay attention to and he’s not dropped in either

 

[JFCats22]

Someone at my work today asked if Reed was point shaving against Oakland.
Things that make you go hmmm.

Someone at your work is a moron

 

[UKFAN4L]

Someone at your work is a moron

That’s actually very true. I just wish Z would’ve caught one of those alley oops 30 feet over his reach.

 

[JonathanW]

I'm not sure that I buy staying a year helps him stay in the NBA longer. If he's going to get to a level of being able to contribute in the NBA--he can do that in the NBA the same as he can in college. And he'll be 1 year closer to his 2nd

Your last statement is 100% correct. And is why financially it may make more sense to wait 1 year.

But your first statement very much misses the target!

Let me explain.
Suppose you can grade a players contribution on a 1-10 scale.

Scenario A, he goes to NBA this summer, for initial $20M over 3 year contract:
Year 1 contribution 3.0
Year 2 contribution 4.5
Year 3 contribution 6.0
2nd contract signed for $60M over 4 years (very nice!)
So after 7 years will have earned $80M.

Scenario B, he stays at UK 1 more year:
Year 1 (at UK, $1M NIL)
goes to NBA for initial $22M over 3 yr contract
Year 2 (NBA Yr 1) contribution 4.5
Year 3 (NBA Yr 2) contribution 6.0
Year 4 (NBA Yr 3) contribution 7.0 (is closer to his performance ceiling)
2nd contract signed for $100M over 4 years.
So after 8 years (7 in NBA) will have earned $123M.

 

[JonathanW]

Someone at my work today asked if Reed was point shaving against Oakland.
Things that make you go hmmm.

He might be the least likely UK player ever to be caught up in point shaving.

 

[AzubuikeandFitch]

I would say, if Calipari leaves, Reed will likely leave. So, if I have to choose between a 2nd year of Reed or another year of Calipari's coaching, what do I choose? That's a good question. As a lottery pick, it would be tough to turn that down. If the Sheppard family has inside info on a potential new coach and they like that person, it's possible he returns. The NIL money has to help the situation. He's gonna be set for life no matter what he chooses.

What is most likely? I have a feeling Calipari gets one more season. That's not what I want, but I think it will likely happen. If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Sheppard returns as part of a package deal, so to speak. The "revenge tour," as Calipari mentioned in the show last night (I didn't listen to it, but I've read a transcript). Cal may use some returnees as some leverage to get another year. I'm just reading between the lines.

For my part, I say just cut Calipari loose and let the chips fall where they may. Get on a coaching search ASAP and get that new coach in place before these players have to make a final decision. Maybe, if it's the right coach, some of them will stay. Otherwise, I have a feeling we will see a complete roster turnover. I'm willing to deal with that at this point, though. Just get ready for that if Cal is fired.

I'm of the mind to use the extra season to find the right replacement. I'm afraid a shortened time frame could result in rash decisions and just settling for a coach.

 

[HeelVol]

Because it benefits Calipari for Reed to get an NBA contract. that's why he would leave.

and honestly, shouldnt he leave? I think Reed is an absolute terrific player. Some mock drafts say he's top 5? Wow. That's, what...$7-9 million per year for at least 3 years?

Calipari should be telling him, not forcing him, to leave but of course welcoming him if he does return. and yet, Karter Knox and Billy Richmond and Boogie Fland are coming. Is Calipari going to tell Reed the same he told Malik Monk and Fox, that there's no spot for them to return?

If Calipari put UK first, as he should, welcome Reed back and enthusiastically if Reed resists leaving. It's clearly a dream for Reed to don that UK blue.

But the way Calipari discusses his approach to the press, it's all about getting millions for his players and their families...thus he's gone.

 

[JonathanW]

If he was your son, what would you suggest he do? Pass up the dream of the NBA that was almost a pipe dream for him before this season? What if he came back and had a career ending injury or even an injury that dropped his value? Unfortunately, money trump's school pride, even if your Daddy was a legend. I have four kids (adults now). While I would love to say that I'd suggest he come back to UK another year, it would not be good advice I don't think. I DO hope I am wrong. I'd love to see him wearing UK blue and white next year. We need him, but I cannot imagine it happening.

That career ending injury very rarely happens.
It's not about "school pride", although that could contribute, it won't be his primary reason if he decides to return.
It's about maximizing his chances at sticking in the league and maximizing how much he can make over his career.

 

[IL Wildcat]

I'm of the mind to use the extra season to find the right replacement. I'm afraid a shortened time frame could result in rash decisions and just settling for a coach.

You may be right Azubuike... truly, if Mitch thought there was a legitimate chance that Cal could be at his end, he should have been at least putting out some feelers and making some calls. But if he's completely caught off guard (hard to imagine) and he's just now considering buying out Calipari and letting him go, then a rash decision could be made. Gillispie was the result of the last rash decision. Then they got it right 2 years later. We can't afford making a similar mistake this time, in my opinion.

 

[Cats192]

Your last statement is 100% correct. And is why financially it may make more sense to wait 1 year.

But your first statement very much misses the target!

Let me explain.
Suppose you can grade a players contribution on a 1-10 scale.

Scenario A, he goes to NBA this summer, for initial $20M over 3 year contract:
Year 1 contribution 3.0
Year 2 contribution 4.5
Year 3 contribution 6.0
2nd contract signed for $60M over 4 years (very nice!)
So after 7 years will have earned $80M.

Scenario B, he stays at UK 1 more year:
Year 1 (at UK, $1M NIL)
goes to NBA for initial $22M over 3 yr contract
Year 2 (NBA Yr 1) contribution 4.5
Year 3 (NBA Yr 2) contribution 6.0
Year 4 (NBA Yr 3) contribution 7.0 (is closer to his performance ceiling)
2nd contract signed for $100M over 4 years.
So after 8 years (7 in NBA) will have earned $123M.

You're making numbers up. You don't know (and I don't know) what his contributions will be next year regardless of where he plays.

It's possible he goes to the NBA and is a solid player from the jump, and gets 200 million on the 2nd contract.

It's possible he stays in college another year, doesn't get any better, never gets to a 2nd contract in the NBA.

The "life changing" money is the 2nd contract. If it's 80 million, Reed is set. If it's 123 million, Reed is set. The thing that makes the most sense is to start the clock on the 2nd contract.

I hope Reed comes back. I don't think it "makes financial sense" to come back. If he does it, it won't be because he thinks he makes more money in the long run.

 

[StubbornPenny]

That kind of money will only dictate lifestyle. It will not dictate survival. He could make $1 million next year and be set for life with smart investing decisions.

If his last name wasn’t Sheppard you’d never advise anyone to take 1 million over 8 plus

 

[Cats192]

You may be right Azubuike... truly, if Mitch thought there was a legitimate chance that Cal could be at his end, he should have been at least putting out some feelers and making some calls. But if he's completely caught off guard (hard to imagine) and he's just now considering buying out Calipari and letting him go, then a rash decision could be made. Gillispie was the result of the last rash decision. Then they got it right 2 years later. We can't afford making a similar mistake this time, in my opinion.

If Mitch doesn't have an idea of who can replace Calipari 15 years in, he should be fired right now.

If we won the national championship this season, there's a reasonable chance Cal rides off into the sunset. He's 65. He could retire at any point. We're not thinking about the replacement for a 65 year old head coach until we lose to Oakland?

Truthfully, I think there's a list. I think there's probably always a list if you're a halfway competent AD. I also don't think the list is magically better next year.

 

[UKFAN4L]

He might be the least likely UK player ever to be caught up in point shaving.

I don’t believe it, but it’s a curious conversation. A conspiracy theory, if you will.
3 total points and no paint looks against a mediocre zone.
Realistically, imagine how much a kid could make off their player props alone.

 

[Blue_2_the_bone]

Yeah, I’d give up potential millions to come back and play for a coach who didn’t think I was good enough to start too. All that aside, I don’t think he’s ready for the NBA yet. He struggled with screens and with help side defense all year. He doesn’t really have the craftiness to score in iso situations against NBA guards. If you don’t want to takeover a college game, I’m not sure how well that translates to the NBA. Even Reddick, who could takeover games was just a really good role player in the league. He can however shoot and pass well enough to be a role player in the right system. Does he think he can come back and improve in areas to make himself an NBA starter or is he fine striking while the iron is hot in a weak draft because he thinks his ceiling isn’t that high? We’ll see.

 

[ck-2]

It blows my mind that people cannot understand that there are still people in this world that say all the right things when asked even if thats not the case. What I mean is Reed and Rob both acted as if they were fine coming off the bench. Jeff and Stacey never complained publicly. Does that mean they were really ok with it? NO!!!
The way Cal brings in his favorites and plays those favorites even when he has better options is a major problem. Don’t you think other coaches will use the Rob and Reed situation as a recruiting strategy? Telling kids if you’re not one of the “chosen” you can’t out work, or beat out the recruits Cal makes promises to even if you’re clearly a better player. I would think this would really be used against the program with portal players. Because we all know Cal will play his five star freshman over a portal player.

 

[ukfan1622]

I don’t believe it, but it’s a curious conversation. A conspiracy theory, if you will.
3 total points and no paint looks against a mediocre zone.
Realistically, imagine how much a kid could make off their player props alone.

Realistically it would be almost impossible for a player to bet on games in the modern
age and it not become public knowledge. And you can't just bet any amount on any
bet you want. For instance, say any well known college player went to a bookie, in Vegas or
the black market or online and wanted to bet against themselves...nobody would take
that bet.

And suppose anybody went into any casino and wanted to place a $100,000 bet
on any game other than the superbowl. Unless the person is superrich and has lost
millions to the casino or the casino is exposed with too much money
bet the other way, there is no way the bet is accepted. I made a $500 bet
in Vegas on a horse race 45 years ago and the person at the window had
to get a manager's approval to accept a bet of that size.

The conspiracies of players making big bucks gambling against their team are absurd. It's not like
it was when the Black Sox threw a World Series; those guys were getting paid
less than $10k per year.