Anything’s possible. And from a certain point of view it certainly would make sense to suffer through another year under Cal if you don’t think the timing is right to get any of your favorite replacements in the door.
But three factors mitigate that line of reasoning.
First, as I said, a lot more people will become “available” if that seat officially opens up and real money is being offered, especially if it’s higher money (probably topping off at six or seven mil/year because we’ll be under that Cal-buyout mortgage unless the Craft family or some other person or collective really comes up with a lump sum).
Second, among the specific people we’d want who are not available now, what is the actual likelihood any of them would be any more available a year from today? Another year of Cal doesn’t really buy us much of anything in terms of who’s available. But it could hurt the program a LOT. And that toxicity could possibly make fewer people want to be available. (Although honestly I don’t think that would be a real big factor, because it’s getting to the point where any idiot should be able to see Cal holds most of the cards because of his buyout and most of the toxicity is coming from him.)
And third, keeping Cal another year isn’t really so attractive in terms of its bottom line, once you turn away from the replacement coach question and focus in on it. Keeping Cal another year comes with the prospect of lost ticket sales, soured relationships with boosters and season ticket-holders that won’t be easy to rebuild, and ultimately the prospect of losing leverage with ESPN. On one hand, ESPN is certainly not going to drop us cold turkey if we start having game after game with empty arenas, on top of a continually mediocre record. In fact, for a while empty Rupp would be a curiosity and would probably boost viewership. But that side show would only last so long, and then it would contribute to the likelihood of a sea change. We’ve always been in the driver’s seat when negotiating contracts with ESPN because we’re such a draw. That’s not guaranteed if we don’t remain the same draw, and another year under Cal would definitely move that needle, and not in the right direction.
This is all one reason I wish options like short-term contracts with Pitino or Pearl were on the table. I realize they are not, realistically. But there are real numerical reasons why something like that would be a better bottom-line decision than stick our head in the sand another year and hope the Cal problem goes away.
