Reed vs. Wagner Plus/Minus, Dilly

[CincyUKFan]

Saw this post in the NBA Draft subreddit. It comes from an impartial basketball fan. I think it’s worthy of its own thread:

I know some people may not like stats, but Reed has a +/- of roughly +300 better than DJ Wagner for the year. They play on the same team and have very similar 2, 3, 4, and 5 man rotations (the difference being Reed vs DJ).

That’s over +10 pts/game. That’s historic. I don’t care about any eye tests. He’s giving you a +10 point advantage over another player who many still consider a first round pick or at least a second round pick. If you want an NBA comparison, that’s Steph vs the Warriors 3rd string PG.

Also Cal finally realized Dillingham, Sheppard, Reeves + 2 others is a good lineup since he went to that at the end (despite Dillingham’s earlier struggles). If he can play this lineup more, they just need some competent wing/big play to make a deep run. That 3 man lineup is elite offensively and can score at will.

 

[Wildcats1st]

Yet cal can’t do math and leaves 5-7 min of production per half on the bench. He likes to start games in a hole. What an awful coach. You give pitino this squad and they are blowing everyone out. Can you imagine if we committed to press 20 min a game?

 

[Cowtown Cat]

DJ has to come off the bench if we wanna make a run. Just has to.

 

[CincyUKFan]

DJ has to come off the bench if we wanna make a run. Just has to.

I’m certain that he won’t 😫

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

We are 1-4 with DJ coming off the bench. We are 19-4 when DJ starts. I'll let you all do the math and figure out which is the better record.

 

[ukjenning44]

DJ only needs spot minutes to relieve Sheppard, Dilly, and Reeves when they need a breather.

You just can’t continue to start the combination of Ugo, DJ, and Edwards.
But Cal will.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

We are 1-4 with DJ coming off the bench. We are 19-4 when DJ starts. I'll let you all do the math and figure out which is the better record.

LMAO has NOTHING to do with DJ. Promise. Literally every basketball analyst questions the logic behind continuing to start DJ Wagner over Reed Sheppard and/or Rob Dillingham.

 

[KA4Prez]

DJ is actually an important piece for ball handling. Just not 25+ minutes a game. But there are spurts in the game where he needs to facilitate versus Reed and Dilly.

I'm fine with DJ out there with at least two of the other guards.

 

[ManitouDan]

^^ I agree , there are times DJ's ball handing and ability to penetrate are needed , but use him in a more precise way , instead of " he's my starter I'm rolling with him " Cal is an idiot

 

[aikenite4uk]

Interesting stats. I don't believe in +/- for small sample sizes like individual games. But over the long haul, they are meaningful.

 

[zannmann]

Gotta have a rock fight. If Reed and Dilly start, might get too big of a lead.

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

LMAO has NOTHING to do with DJ. Promise. Literally every basketball analyst questions the logic behind continuing to start DJ Wagner over Reed Sheppard and/or Rob Dillingham.

When DJ starts we win a lot more often then when he doesn't. DJ seems to have a lot to do with it, but feel free to prove otherwise, if you can!

 

[ChicagoCat1990]

I think it goes to Cal's genius for March. He gets Reed used to playing from behind all season and then...BAM! Now he's a comeback machine leading us to MSU style wins for title number 9.

 

[YardCat]

We are 1-4 with DJ coming off the bench. We are 19-4 when DJ starts. I'll let you all do the math and figure out which is the better record.

Not because of DJ’s play, you keep the DJ hype train going, he is a bench player who should substitute when others are tired or in foul trouble. Every game we get down, out goes Wagner and Edwards and in is Reed and Dilly and we catch up.

 

[GoBIG BLUE]

I hate that DJ is such a poor facilitator; with his ability to drive and colapse defense he should have the ability to be an assist machine... but he's proven to be an inconsistent passer. Rob and especially Reed are far better facilitators imo.

 

[Big Foot 275]

We are 1-4 with DJ coming off the bench. We are 19-4 when DJ starts. I'll let you all do the math and figure out which is the better record.

Ridiculous. I tell you what was an awful idea. You signing up for Rafters.

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Not because of DJ’s play, you keep the DJ hype train going, he is a bench player who should substitute when others are tired or in foul trouble. Every game we get down, out goes Wagner and Edwards and in is Reed and Dilly and we catch up.

What DJ hype train? Are we not 19-4 with DJ starting? Are we not 1-4 with Reed starting?
Reed and Rob play great off the bench. Reed isn't as great when he starts. Why mess with that works?

Did I ever say Reed isn't better or shouldn't play more?

Slow down, read, comprehend and learn what the argument is actually about. You'll appear more rational!

Ridiculous. I tell you what was an awful idea. You signing up for Rafters.

Lol, take the blue tinters off for a bit and I think you'll start seeing more rational. 😉

I hate that DJ is such a poor facilitator; with his ability to drive and colapse defense he should have the ability to be an assist machine... but he's proven to be an inconsistent passer. Rob and especially Reed are far better facilitators imo.

Reed and DJ have almost identical assist to turnovers per 40.

 

[Big Foot 275]

What DJ hype train? Are we not 19-4 with DJ starting? Are we not 1-4 with Reed starting?
Reed and Rob play great off the bench. Reed isn't as great when he starts. Why mess with that works?

Did I ever say Reed isn't better or shouldn't play more?

Slow down, read, comprehend and learn what the argument is actually about. You'll appear more rational!


Lol, take the blue tinters off for a bit and I think you'll start seeing more rational. 😉

Reed and DJ have almost identical assist to turnovers per 40.

So let's start the guy who is statistically inferior in every single category. Makes perfect sense. Why do you think Calipari subs Reed in 3 or 4 minutes into the game and he never goes out genius? Stop posting. You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[cats2010]

When DJ starts we win a lot more often then when he doesn't. DJ seems to have a lot to do with it, but feel free to prove otherwise, if you can!

We won last nights game with DJ starting and we’re down 12-3 before help came in. What did DJ’s starting role have to do with last nights win?

 

[Big Foot 275]

We won last nights game with DJ starting and we’re down 12-3 before help came in. What did DJ’s starting role have to do with last nights win?

Absolutely nothing.

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

So let's start the guy who is statistically inferior in every single category. Makes perfect sense. Why do you think Calipari subs Reed in 3 or 4 minutes into the game and he never goes out genius? Stop posting. You're embarrassing yourself.

Well, he's actually not. DJ is a 19-4 as a starter. Reed is 1-4. That's all I need to see to know who should start. We won last night with DJ starting, right?

I would say advocating for a starter who has a lower winning percentage than Askew did as a starter is more embarrassing. But you do you! 😉

We won last nights game with DJ starting and we’re down 12-3 before help came in. What did DJ’s starting role have to do with last nights win?

You first 8 words answered your own question.

We are 19-4 with DJ starting. We are 1-4 with Reed starting. DJ is and should be the starter, unless you enjoy winning only 20% of the time.

 

[sefus12]

So let's start the guy who is statistically inferior in every single category. Makes perfect sense. Why do you think Calipari subs Reed in 3 or 4 minutes into the game and he never goes out genius? Stop posting. You're embarrassing yourself.

Stop responding. Guy is just a troll who started the account today just to argue.

 

[Big Foot 275]

Well, he's actually not. DJ is a 19-4 as a starter. Reed is 1-4. That's all I need to see to know who should start. We won last night with DJ starting, right?

I would say advocating for a starter who has a lower winning percentage than Askew did as a starter is more embarrassing. But you do you! 😉


You first 8 words answered your own question.

We are 19-4 with DJ starting. We are 1-4 with Reed starting. DJ is and should be the starter, unless you enjoy winning only 20% of the time.

Mods can you get rid of this guy?

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Stop responding. Guy is just a troll who started the account today just to argue.

How am I arguing by presenting facts?

Is Reed not 1-4 as a starter? Is DJ not 19-4?

Reed is playing better and should play more, that's not a debate. He should be in when the game is on the line! However, the numbers indicate we win far more often when he comes off the bench than when he starts. So, again, why change what is obviously working? Is it worth messing up just to say Reed started?

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Mods can you get rid of this guy?

For what?

Are you really this soft of a person that you can't handle people with opinions different from yours? You might want to change your tampon.

 

[Big Foot 275]

For what?

Are you really this soft of a person that you can't handle people with opinions different from yours? You might want to change your tampon.

Because you aren't a UK fan and you're a nitwit from the Louisville board so get lost.

 

[fisherscatfan]

Stop responding. Guy is just a troll who started the account today just to argue.

Quickest ignore in history for me. The troll had 8 posts.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

DJ is a good enough player but we have two incredible players that need to start. That starting lineup isn't even all dj. Cal starts such an awful combo that we have just one guy that can score which makes us super easy to defend.

On the road especially, we need fast starts and we cannot depend on one guy for 5 minutes especially when we don't have to. It's insanely stupid and will cost us in March

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Because you aren't a UK fan and you're a nitwit from the Louisville board so get lost.

Lol, if that were the case, I would be encouraging starting the guy that has a lower win % as a starter than Askew.

Some of you all aren't very fond of logic, and it shows.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Why is it Sheppard vs. Wagner for who starts?

Dillingham fouls so much, it’s probably a bad idea to start him, so put Sheppard, Wagner, and Reeves in there to start with Edwards, Thiero, or Mitchell and one of the bigs. Then Dillingham as instant offense off the bench.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Just another reason Shep is gone. All the people fantasizing about him returning are in for a rude awakening.

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Why is it Sheppard vs. Wagner for who starts?

Dillingham fouls so much, it’s probably a bad idea to start him, so put Sheppard, Wagner, and Reeves in there to start with Edwards, Thiero, or Mitchell and one of the bigs. Then Dillingham as instant offense off the bench.

This is certainly a viable option. However, Thiero gives a lot of toughness that we lack, and if Edwards becomes more of what we saw against Bama, we really could use both of them on the floor. Particularly their defense.