Europe goes from estimating that they would have 500,000 deaths to 20,000.....
"Merica is going back to work !
"Merica is going back to work !
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POLITICAL THREAD
- Thread starter kybobcat
- Start date
I played golf today with some guys and one of them actually was snarky about the unemployment numbers like it was Trump's fault. I just looked at him and saw a tiny, bitter, petty little man. I then smiled ear to ear and told him the market was up 1000 despite that. He looked away.
A
anon_l8pbkn96tg3j6
Guest
Europe is already over 14,000 deaths including over 2,000 new deaths and 30,000 new cases today. Where did you see they are only estimating 6,000 more total deaths? Just curious.
I’m still getting calls from the chinese (?) bitch who speaks no english. been ongoing for months. love to get my hands around her throat.
Birx: 19 of 50 States have less than 200 total cases in the entire State.
I posted this the other day but it's worth the re-post. All of this arguing when we should be worried about what is going on in the present is childish.
From the other day
Before I post a retort to your statement above, I'd like to say that while we all share differing political views & opinions, we all have one thing in common, and that is the love of Kentucky basketball. I grew up a UK fan and graduated from Kentucky in 2010 with a degree in Business Administration & Finance.
Unlike Levibooty, who has posted some stuff that I technically agree with, I cannot agree with the way he's presenting his argument. Saying something is true without positing evidence is just as bad as people on the right (or left) posting stuff as if it's 100% factual.
Let's dive into the 2008-2016 era that you, Cole854, say was an "unrecoverable hell" and 2017 to present period, which was "filled with prosperity" that is until the virus came.
Now I won't be like many people on the left who blame DT for the downturn in the markets. Sure, I think he could've acted sooner, but the market crash was going to happen regardless of who was in the office. I'm not going to place the blame on DT for the market falling from 29,500 to 20,700 points. Actually, let's pretend the market is still at 29,500.
Stock Market - DJIA
When Trump took office, the market was at 19,827, and 3 years later, it sat around 29,500, for a whopping 14% rate of return/year. To put that into perspective, the average returns since the Great Depression range from 7-10ish percent depending on which market index you use.
When Obama took office, the market was already in a downward spiral, a crash that started in October 2007 and would become known as the Great Recession. When Obama took office, the market was around 8,077 and continued to fall for the next six weeks or so to 6,500 in March 2009. This was the start of the bull market that lasted from March 2009 to March 2020. Essentially, we were in a bull run for all but six weeks of Obama's tenure. Three years into 44's tenure, the market was around 12,600 points, equating to a 16% return/year. After four years in office, the market was about 13,895 or 14.5%/year over the first 4 years. During his 8 years in office, the DJIA roughly returned 11.9%, going from 8,077 points to 19,827 points.
https://www.google.com/search?q=dow...9i57j69i60l4.951j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Now, I am only using these numbers because it's what DT likes to tout when touting the economy, saying the previous administration had numbers that couldn't touch what has occurred over the past three years.
Do I believe the president has any substantial impact on the market as a whole? Normally, I'd have to say they do not; however, I'm just attempting to us the arguments DT uses as a means to fight against it.
One could argue that DT was just continuing where the market left off once Obama left. Another person could say that 44's numbers were good only because he started from the bottom. While I can see both sides, I tend to lean towards the administration of 44, actually pulling us out of the Great Recession.
We can infer this by looking at two things that Trump likes to point out, and that is the stock market performance, jobs created, and unemployment.
Unemployment Rate
When the DJIA hit its peak before the market started to crash in Oct 2007, the unemployment rate was equal to 4.7%. When 44 took over, it was 7.8%, and when he left it was back to 4.7%. Yes, the first four years of his tenure didn't change much with regards to this number, going from 7.8 to 8.3, but the Great Recession wasn't your typical recessionary period.
2000 to Present
When DT took over, the unemployment rate was 4.7% (see above), and as of February 2020, it sits at 3.5%. Again, one could argue that this is just a continuation of the previous administration, but I'd give the current administration some credit at least.
If you want to mess around with the graph above, please click the link below.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
Job Creation
Job creation is another topic that is frequently discussed by Trump and his administration. They tout that they're bringing back jobs to the U.S. and creating more jobs than we've seen ever before. But again, this is not true.
Utilizing the link below and making your range from 2009 to 2020, one can see the number of jobs created each month. To make this information useful, I'd recommend downloading the .xlsx file and doing a summation of the number of jobs created each year and then sorting the number of jobs created by year from highest to lowest.
2009 is by far the worse year on this data set, with over 5 million jobs lost. However, a rational person would see that we were in the Great Recession, and that's not something one can get out of overnight.
Now, if you take the past 11 calendar years and order them, you'll see that DT is only in the top 5 in terms of jobs created in a year, just a single time. 5 of the top 6 were all under Obama.
2014 - 3 million jobs
2015 - 2.72 million
2016 - 2.345 million
2018 - 2.314 million
2013 - 2.301 million
2012 - 2.176 million
2019 - 2.133 million
2017 - 2.109 million
2011 - 2.074 million
2010 - 1.034 million
2009 - (5.051 million)
From looking at these numbers, one can see as to why the unemployment rate basically remained the same over 44's first term but fell drastically over his second term. Yes, the market kicked ass during the entire eight years, but most of that wealth went to the wealthy of this country, just like what has happened over the past three years.
I used the link below, which is also where Trump and his administration get their job numbers. Again I recommend viewing all three links and messing around with the data to see that I'm posting what is reflected in the data.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
In closing, while I'm not really a fan of 45, I can give his administration some credit for the markets from 2017 through the end of 2019. But to say that we were in hell before 2017 is completely foolish, especially when the numbers presented show otherwise. While I do my best to visit news sites of differing leanings, from Fox to MSNBC, I believe we all have to stop investing so much time into the news as all that does is promote fear of the other side and just fear in general. I do my best to avoid the news on television as it can be a dangerous thing for our minds to absorb.
With that being said, I hope everyone can start having a friendly discourse with one another and not resort to unwarranted and/or immature attacks.
Go Cats!
Azurricat2010
Don’t give him any putts.![[winking]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/wink.r191677.gif "Winking [winking]")
That POS makes you putt anything that's even a fraction outside the leather......and we are playing for a whopping 2 bucks.
I'd be way beyond shocked if anyone officially has said Europe is only expecting 20k deaths. That would be terribly irresponsible given the continued massive uptick in cases and deaths every day. Whoever said that should never be allowed to speak in public again.
George Burns lookalike gov here in ohio just shut down all golf courses. look for ky gov to follow suit if has not already.
What I have seen on here about their models being wrong sure does sound familiar. I am interested in reading more about that statement.
Birx: The data just does not match the extreme predictions.
I thought it was the UK, not Europe. Originally some college "scientist" said the UK would have over 500K in deaths and now same "scientist" is saying 20K.
Tomorrow that will be down to 15...next day down to 12...
14 states with over 1000 cases, that number will rise daily.
US now with the most cases of any country in the world. Will surpass 100,000 cases tomorrow.
A
anon_l8pbkn96tg3j6
Guest
You can paint it anyway you want to, the experts are saying the dogs&t media making this sound like the Black Plague are as wrong as rain. 2 weeks from now Liberals will be looking for the next "we got him now!" moment. F'ing losers.
Stock Market out of bear territory and back in bull territory, just like that. LIBS cry.
Also, living in fear is a terrible way to live, and I fear (intended) most people on this board live that way every day. It's fine to watch the news, but when it controls your day to day life, it's a dangerous thing. Fox is known to lie or exaggerate the truth to their viewers, and to an extent, so does MSNBC.
Shoot, the last time I was in KY visiting family, my step-dad, an avid Fox News viewer, had Fox Business on, and one of the guests was blaming Obama for the market crash. The guy said that the markets started to crash in 2007, and it was Obama's fault because he was the presidential nominee. Lying like that is dangerous, especially for those who cannot think for themselves**
**I'm not saying all of you are like that, but some of you argue the same way my step-dad is known to argue, and he's not that bright.
Fox and other outlets are trying their best to become Big Brother, and that shit is scary. Ya'll need to have your own thoughts and not let news outlets dictate them for you.
Also, for those complaining that there's nothing to do b/c of the lockdown, read a book, skype with friends, learn to cook something new, etc. There's so much crap you can teach yourself during the next 1-3 months.
Cheers,
Azurricat2010
Shoot, the last time I was in KY visiting family, my step-dad, an avid Fox News viewer, had Fox Business on, and one of the guests was blaming Obama for the market crash. The guy said that the markets started to crash in 2007, and it was Obama's fault because he was the presidential nominee. Lying like that is dangerous, especially for those who cannot think for themselves**
**I'm not saying all of you are like that, but some of you argue the same way my step-dad is known to argue, and he's not that bright.
Fox and other outlets are trying their best to become Big Brother, and that shit is scary. Ya'll need to have your own thoughts and not let news outlets dictate them for you.
Also, for those complaining that there's nothing to do b/c of the lockdown, read a book, skype with friends, learn to cook something new, etc. There's so much crap you can teach yourself during the next 1-3 months.
Cheers,
Azurricat2010
Interesting that you left out CNN. If a person watches Fox for 30 minutes regarding the Corona virus and then CNN for 30 minutes, CNN will have you thinking the world is on the verge of ending. Nice try, though.
I don't care if there's 20 billion cases. The overwhelming majority of them are not serious
It'll be great if it keeps going up indefinitely, but you can't use three days as an indicator that everything is fine. If you had $1000 and I took $300 from you AND then gave you $140 back, would you be happy? No, you would still be upset. You'd want the remaining $160.
I've seen people post how yesterday was the best day for the market since the 1930s as if that's a good thing b/c that was 90 years ago. But what was going on back in that time period? The Great Depression! The market fell so som 11.7% on Black Tuesday (10-19-29), and the very next day jumped 12.34%. In the big picture, that jump on 10-30 didn't mean anything. It took the markets decades to reach the pre-Black Tuesday levels**.
Essentially when the market is so depressed as it has been, it's to be expected for there to be huge swings in either direction. Shit, volatility has been at record highs, and that's not a good thing.
**No I do not think the economy is going to be at that level and honestly, I think it's going to be more in line with what happened in 1987***, but we cannot point out to daily gains and say "Take that Libs" or daily losses and say "Take that Trumptards." That shit is immature and pointless.
***The market was back within 6 months or so.
I posted this the other day but it's worth the re-post. All of this arguing when we should be worried about what is going on in the present is childish.
From the other day
Before I post a retort to your statement above, I'd like to say that while we all share differing political views & opinions, we all have one thing in common, and that is the love of Kentucky basketball. I grew up a UK fan and graduated from Kentucky in 2010 with a degree in Business Administration & Finance.
Unlike Levibooty, who has posted some stuff that I technically agree with, I cannot agree with the way he's presenting his argument. Saying something is true without positing evidence is just as bad as people on the right (or left) posting stuff as if it's 100% factual.
Let's dive into the 2008-2016 era that you, Cole854, say was an "unrecoverable hell" and 2017 to present period, which was "filled with prosperity" that is until the virus came.
Now I won't be like many people on the left who blame DT for the downturn in the markets. Sure, I think he could've acted sooner, but the market crash was going to happen regardless of who was in the office. I'm not going to place the blame on DT for the market falling from 29,500 to 20,700 points. Actually, let's pretend the market is still at 29,500.
Stock Market - DJIA
When Trump took office, the market was at 19,827, and 3 years later, it sat around 29,500, for a whopping 14% rate of return/year. To put that into perspective, the average returns since the Great Depression range from 7-10ish percent depending on which market index you use.
When Obama took office, the market was already in a downward spiral, a crash that started in October 2007 and would become known as the Great Recession. When Obama took office, the market was around 8,077 and continued to fall for the next six weeks or so to 6,500 in March 2009. This was the start of the bull market that lasted from March 2009 to March 2020. Essentially, we were in a bull run for all but six weeks of Obama's tenure. Three years into 44's tenure, the market was around 12,600 points, equating to a 16% return/year. After four years in office, the market was about 13,895 or 14.5%/year over the first 4 years. During his 8 years in office, the DJIA roughly returned 11.9%, going from 8,077 points to 19,827 points.
https://www.google.com/search?q=dow...9i57j69i60l4.951j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Now, I am only using these numbers because it's what DT likes to tout when touting the economy, saying the previous administration had numbers that couldn't touch what has occurred over the past three years.
Do I believe the president has any substantial impact on the market as a whole? Normally, I'd have to say they do not; however, I'm just attempting to us the arguments DT uses as a means to fight against it.
One could argue that DT was just continuing where the market left off once Obama left. Another person could say that 44's numbers were good only because he started from the bottom. While I can see both sides, I tend to lean towards the administration of 44, actually pulling us out of the Great Recession.
We can infer this by looking at two things that Trump likes to point out, and that is the stock market performance, jobs created, and unemployment.
Unemployment Rate
When the DJIA hit its peak before the market started to crash in Oct 2007, the unemployment rate was equal to 4.7%. When 44 took over, it was 7.8%, and when he left it was back to 4.7%. Yes, the first four years of his tenure didn't change much with regards to this number, going from 7.8 to 8.3, but the Great Recession wasn't your typical recessionary period.
2000 to Present
When DT took over, the unemployment rate was 4.7% (see above), and as of February 2020, it sits at 3.5%. Again, one could argue that this is just a continuation of the previous administration, but I'd give the current administration some credit at least.
If you want to mess around with the graph above, please click the link below.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
Job Creation
Job creation is another topic that is frequently discussed by Trump and his administration. They tout that they're bringing back jobs to the U.S. and creating more jobs than we've seen ever before. But again, this is not true.
Utilizing the link below and making your range from 2009 to 2020, one can see the number of jobs created each month. To make this information useful, I'd recommend downloading the .xlsx file and doing a summation of the number of jobs created each year and then sorting the number of jobs created by year from highest to lowest.
2009 is by far the worse year on this data set, with over 5 million jobs lost. However, a rational person would see that we were in the Great Recession, and that's not something one can get out of overnight.
Now, if you take the past 11 calendar years and order them, you'll see that DT is only in the top 5 in terms of jobs created in a year, just a single time. 5 of the top 6 were all under Obama.
2014 - 3 million jobs
2015 - 2.72 million
2016 - 2.345 million
2018 - 2.314 million
2013 - 2.301 million
2012 - 2.176 million
2019 - 2.133 million
2017 - 2.109 million
2011 - 2.074 million
2010 - 1.034 million
2009 - (5.051 million)
From looking at these numbers, one can see as to why the unemployment rate basically remained the same over 44's first term but fell drastically over his second term. Yes, the market kicked ass during the entire eight years, but most of that wealth went to the wealthy of this country, just like what has happened over the past three years.
I used the link below, which is also where Trump and his administration get their job numbers. Again I recommend viewing all three links and messing around with the data to see that I'm posting what is reflected in the data.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
In closing, while I'm not really a fan of 45, I can give his administration some credit for the markets from 2017 through the end of 2019. But to say that we were in hell before 2017 is completely foolish, especially when the numbers presented show otherwise. While I do my best to visit news sites of differing leanings, from Fox to MSNBC, I believe we all have to stop investing so much time into the news as all that does is promote fear of the other side and just fear in general. I do my best to avoid the news on television as it can be a dangerous thing for our minds to absorb.
With that being said, I hope everyone can start having a friendly discourse with one another and not resort to unwarranted and/or immature attacks.
Go Cats!
Azurricat2010
I summarily refuted this, why would you repost it?
Fixed that for you. We have the most CONFIRMED cases. Why? Because we tested the most people.
Doesn't matter. The more confirmed cases, the more we see the rate of critical and death cases drop.
I didn't say everything was fine. I was saying that we are trending that way instead of trending the way of the world ending and the next great depression as so many predicted. The 15 day lockdown has done wonders and I won't let lunatics that thrive off of horror bother me. Have a great night.
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I mean, those who are saying the world is ending are just as bad as those spreading fake news as the president likes to say. Media from all sides are now essentially reduced to getting money from clicks, and that just reduces journalistic integrity.
I do think the 15-day lockdown will help, but it's those who are saying the lockdown itself is pointless that needs to take a step back and use their brain rather than emotion.
right and we have the most people by far other than China. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. Ohh wait and see it's gonna get worse there's gonna be more cases
That doesn't seem like something to be suspicious over. People from all walks of life are still commuting to work. Using scare tactics like that won't work. With that being said, not many people in the lower-income groups are fortunate enough to be able to work from home either because their job doesn't offer it or it'll be impossible to do so. Take people in the restaurant industry or factory workers as an example.
If you think FOX is more extreme than either of those, which it appears you do, you have formed a biased opinion on FOX.......and you're wildly wrong.
I posted this the other day but it's worth the re-post. All of this arguing when we should be worried about what is going on in the present is childish.
From the other day
Before I post a retort to your statement above, I'd like to say that while we all share differing political views & opinions, we all have one thing in common, and that is the love of Kentucky basketball. I grew up a UK fan and graduated from Kentucky in 2010 with a degree in Business Administration & Finance.
Unlike Levibooty, who has posted some stuff that I technically agree with, I cannot agree with the way he's presenting his argument. Saying something is true without positing evidence is just as bad as people on the right (or left) posting stuff as if it's 100% factual.
Let's dive into the 2008-2016 era that you, Cole854, say was an "unrecoverable hell" and 2017 to present period, which was "filled with prosperity" that is until the virus came.
Now I won't be like many people on the left who blame DT for the downturn in the markets. Sure, I think he could've acted sooner, but the market crash was going to happen regardless of who was in the office. I'm not going to place the blame on DT for the market falling from 29,500 to 20,700 points. Actually, let's pretend the market is still at 29,500.
Stock Market - DJIA
When Trump took office, the market was at 19,827, and 3 years later, it sat around 29,500, for a whopping 14% rate of return/year. To put that into perspective, the average returns since the Great Depression range from 7-10ish percent depending on which market index you use.
When Obama took office, the market was already in a downward spiral, a crash that started in October 2007 and would become known as the Great Recession. When Obama took office, the market was around 8,077 and continued to fall for the next six weeks or so to 6,500 in March 2009. This was the start of the bull market that lasted from March 2009 to March 2020. Essentially, we were in a bull run for all but six weeks of Obama's tenure. Three years into 44's tenure, the market was around 12,600 points, equating to a 16% return/year. After four years in office, the market was about 13,895 or 14.5%/year over the first 4 years. During his 8 years in office, the DJIA roughly returned 11.9%, going from 8,077 points to 19,827 points.
https://www.google.com/search?q=dow...9i57j69i60l4.951j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Now, I am only using these numbers because it's what DT likes to tout when touting the economy, saying the previous administration had numbers that couldn't touch what has occurred over the past three years.
Do I believe the president has any substantial impact on the market as a whole? Normally, I'd have to say they do not; however, I'm just attempting to us the arguments DT uses as a means to fight against it.
One could argue that DT was just continuing where the market left off once Obama left. Another person could say that 44's numbers were good only because he started from the bottom. While I can see both sides, I tend to lean towards the administration of 44, actually pulling us out of the Great Recession.
We can infer this by looking at two things that Trump likes to point out, and that is the stock market performance, jobs created, and unemployment.
Unemployment Rate
When the DJIA hit its peak before the market started to crash in Oct 2007, the unemployment rate was equal to 4.7%. When 44 took over, it was 7.8%, and when he left it was back to 4.7%. Yes, the first four years of his tenure didn't change much with regards to this number, going from 7.8 to 8.3, but the Great Recession wasn't your typical recessionary period.
2000 to Present
When DT took over, the unemployment rate was 4.7% (see above), and as of February 2020, it sits at 3.5%. Again, one could argue that this is just a continuation of the previous administration, but I'd give the current administration some credit at least.
If you want to mess around with the graph above, please click the link below.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
Job Creation
Job creation is another topic that is frequently discussed by Trump and his administration. They tout that they're bringing back jobs to the U.S. and creating more jobs than we've seen ever before. But again, this is not true.
Utilizing the link below and making your range from 2009 to 2020, one can see the number of jobs created each month. To make this information useful, I'd recommend downloading the .xlsx file and doing a summation of the number of jobs created each year and then sorting the number of jobs created by year from highest to lowest.
2009 is by far the worse year on this data set, with over 5 million jobs lost. However, a rational person would see that we were in the Great Recession, and that's not something one can get out of overnight.
Now, if you take the past 11 calendar years and order them, you'll see that DT is only in the top 5 in terms of jobs created in a year, just a single time. 5 of the top 6 were all under Obama.
2014 - 3 million jobs
2015 - 2.72 million
2016 - 2.345 million
2018 - 2.314 million
2013 - 2.301 million
2012 - 2.176 million
2019 - 2.133 million
2017 - 2.109 million
2011 - 2.074 million
2010 - 1.034 million
2009 - (5.051 million)
From looking at these numbers, one can see as to why the unemployment rate basically remained the same over 44's first term but fell drastically over his second term. Yes, the market kicked ass during the entire eight years, but most of that wealth went to the wealthy of this country, just like what has happened over the past three years.
I used the link below, which is also where Trump and his administration get their job numbers. Again I recommend viewing all three links and messing around with the data to see that I'm posting what is reflected in the data.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
In closing, while I'm not really a fan of 45, I can give his administration some credit for the markets from 2017 through the end of 2019. But to say that we were in hell before 2017 is completely foolish, especially when the numbers presented show otherwise. While I do my best to visit news sites of differing leanings, from Fox to MSNBC, I believe we all have to stop investing so much time into the news as all that does is promote fear of the other side and just fear in general. I do my best to avoid the news on television as it can be a dangerous thing for our minds to absorb.
With that being said, I hope everyone can start having a friendly discourse with one another and not resort to unwarranted and/or immature attacks.
Go Cats!
Azurricat2010
I didn’t say we were in hell, I stated that for the first time Americans thought their kids wouldn’t be better off than them.
That is exactly why Trump was elected, we were tired of shipping jobs out of country, and TPP would’ve furthered that. As this pandemic has further proven is that we need to depend less on foreign manufacture on many items.
The economy was anemic under Obama, imagine if this has happened under his watch and the fed interest was at zero as it was for 90% of his presidency?
As you’ll see in the coming months and years after this huge jobs drop, jobs exponentially grow after a huge drop. It’s going to completely turn Trumps job numbers out the roof.
Fox hasn't really been conservative since the bush years I mostly avoid them as much as the other clearly left wing channels. Murdoch's kids are liberals and their programming mostly reflects that
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