POLITICAL THREAD
- Thread starter kybobcat
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I don't think there's anyone else at this point. Maybe Cruz? I think in the scenario where Hillary is getting obliterated he stands a better chance than Trump, so long as he's seen as a legitimate R candidate. A battle of least negative favorables, if you will. Kasich has an outside shot if 1) Hillary implodes, and 2) he's seen as legit somehow, like Trump doing poorly from here on out where it's truly a brokered convention? No one else can be the nominee at this point that would have any real shot due to the optics. But it's a real mess.
The main problem with the GOP is that candidates that appeal to the mainstream can't get the nomination because they don't pass the litmus test applied by the right wing of the party. Trump doesn't pass the test either but being a reality star the normal rules of play don't apply. Kasich appeals to the mainstream but is running a distant third in a 3 man race. Cruz only appeals to the right-wing. Trump's support comes from "dumb wings" of GOP, Democratic and independent voters. He has no ideology other than what bests serves Donald Trump. The GOP is simply unlucky that he decided at this time he would be a Republican.
I 99.9% agree with this. Seven + months is an eternity in election terms. The only thing I'd take any issue with is that the VP choice will play a factor. IMHO that is one of the most over-rated factors out there in election terms. Now a poor choice could probably get you beat...(see Sarah Palin)...but I don't think VPs add much if any upside to a ticket.
It will be interesting to see how the 3rd party candidates do in this election. I'd predict that 3rd party voting will be at a all time high.
I've made this same assertion several times. I still would not be surprised to see him bow out at some point.
Or if she got any bad pub from MSM?
Noone. Its over now. When Trump started surging, they didnt have to back him. But they sure didnt have to try and kill him. Now its too far gone, and the party is fractured regardless.
Cruz is the worst general election candidate in years in terms of independent voter appeal.
Id say you will be right
Re: record third party support. No. Going to be hard to beat Perot years for 3rd party votes (~18% and 8%) even if Trump runs as a third party candidate, which he really can't do at this point due to ballot access laws. And that ignores all the older elections where third parties received > 8%, like 22% (1856), 18.2% (1960), 27.4% (1912), 16.6% (1924), and 13.5% (1968).
FWIW, Gary Johnson got 1% in 2012 (first time since 1980 a Libertarian got to 1%), and Nader got ~ 2.75% in 2000.
Can someone who is going to vote for Johnson or write someone in explain to me their thought process behind that?
I can't think of a bigger waste of my time. Any message someone thinks they're sending by doing that is falling on deaf ears.
I can't think of a bigger waste of my time. Any message someone thinks they're sending by doing that is falling on deaf ears.
Trump hasn't really spent that much money...and what he has spent he can justify it as marketing. As of Feb 20 he had spent $17.7 million of his money. What, Trump claims he is worth 10 billion? Let's say he is worth only $1 billion. $17.7 million would be the same as someone who is worth $1 million spending $17,700. So he's bought a decent used car.
Yes, I poorly stated my case. You are right with what you are saying. '68 was George Wallace...probably the first election I was old enough to be paying attention. I recall all of the black kids in school saying that Wallace wanted to ship them all back to Africa. <-- True story, not 1960...sure you mean 1860...Perot and Wallace were well known entities and actively campaigned.
I was meaning more in the "none of the above" category of third party candidates. While Gary Johnson is known to a few...the average guy on the street couldn't tell you who he is. Will he campaign beyond a few Libertarian gatherings? Run more that perhaps a token advertisement somewhere?
I think it's more an issue of caucus discipline and the fact that GOP leadership has been tripping over their own d!cks for roughly six years.
McConnell's SCOTUS disaster is largely a manifestation of that disorder. The GOP has the electoral muscle and the brainpower to make things work in their favor. They're just not organized enough to do it.
Why? Do you think a vote for Cruz is really going to keep Hillary out of office? Better to vote your conscious than to hold your nose on election day.
What percent of democrat votes are white, black, or latino?
I wish that when Clinton talks about Americans she was honest and said minorities. That's her focus on damn near everything.
Also, why the hell would blacks vote for a party that in 8 years has barely budged the black unemployment under 26 at 58%.
How the hell do you think Clinton improves that?
I wish that when Clinton talks about Americans she was honest and said minorities. That's her focus on damn near everything.
Also, why the hell would blacks vote for a party that in 8 years has barely budged the black unemployment under 26 at 58%.
How the hell do you think Clinton improves that?
http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/03/protester-pepper-sprayed-in-face-at-trump-rally.html
This tells me more about this group of people than anything else.....
This tells me more about this group of people than anything else.....
Just a brief fact. 98% of Americans are stupid. 1.5% think they are the smart ones, yet they are the most concentrated of the morons.
Man, this what sucks when you use deductive reasoning to conclude your supremecy only to find out that the people couldn't figure out oxygen
Man, this what sucks when you use deductive reasoning to conclude your supremecy only to find out that the people couldn't figure out oxygen
I didn't say anything about holding your nose and voting for one of the two. I want someone to explain why they take time out of their day to vote third party or write in. What's the point of "voting your conscious"?
There's no candidate I could stomach voting for that could conceivably win this election. Why even vote in that scenario?
How could anyone take issue with anything in that video? She wasn't "groped" she was being held back from attacking someone. When she finally physically assaulted him, she got pepper sprayed. People who go to political rallies are the worst.
How do you know she wasn't groped? Because it isn't on the video? Were you at the rally standing next to these people? Just curious how you know what was going on before the video is taken.
Since "allegedly" wasn't included, I figured the "groping" was caught on video.
If the headline of the article is just making a definitive statement based on accusations that's a different story.
If the headline of the article is just making a definitive statement based on accusations that's a different story.
Yeah, "the establishment's" fault, not his shitty persona.
Our new poll: Trump viewed unfavorably by: 85% Latinos 80% 18-34 68% white women 51% WHITE MEN Chart: http://wapo.st/1pNcRq4
Our new poll: Trump viewed unfavorably by: 85% Latinos 80% 18-34 68% white women 51% WHITE MEN Chart: http://wapo.st/1pNcRq4
Yes, my thought process is...
VOTE
Exactly brother.
If you don't vote at all, you signal that your concerns do not matter. At best, Rs and Ds work to get your vote (the non voters' vote) next time, only they have no information on what you would vote for. If you actually believe that a Libertarian is best, and vote Gary Johnson, then it signals to at least Rs that there are votes available for libertarian values. The party could move in that direction (subtle, sure) and try to capture those votes. Right now, both parties can safely ignore the ~ 35% who don't vote in presidential elections. Their views do not matter, increasing the influence of the remaining voters.
Now you'll argue that it doesn't really make a difference because the numbers are so small. Sure, because people don't vote or hold their noses and vote for a candidate that can win. If everyone voted their conscious, we'd probably have a better system. But it's a collective action problem, so most don't. But really, if you're going to play the "what does it matter card" because 1 vote is only 1 vote, that applies to anything political and you might as well just ignore everything.
Of course, voting for a third party could end up punishing the party more closely aligned to that third party - Rs in 1992 and 1996, Ds in 2000 - disproportionately and force a shift in message/platform/values in outsize proportion to the third party vote. That's the most likely way that a third party vote can (not necessarily will though) shape future elections.
which "this group", the paid Trump protesters or the Trump supporters. that gal is 15 yrs old per twitter? and punched an old man with white hair in the face? deserved every ounce of that mace to the face. what horrible, horrible parents she obviously has.
He hasn't spent much money. He has very little organization. He has no ground game really in any state. He has been mercilessly attacked by both Democrats, Republicans, and every major media market including Fox, MSNBC, and CNN... yet here he still is. He's fought the Bush family, Romney, McCain, all the other candidates, Hillary, Bill Clinton, and the Pope... and yet here he still is.
You folks need to step back and understand how insanely impressive that is. Nobody that has ever lived could have withstood that gauntlet and still be even in the running, let alone actually WINNING.
This has been the most amazing political spectacle of our lifetimes and I hope you all realize that.
I don't know the figures. But assuming youre correct, spending $17.7 million of your own dollars is significant for a candidate. No matter how you try to spin it.
Oh his persona is the cause of everything. No doubt about that. But the establishment was stupid for killing their only real chance at doing anything this election.
Not that the MSM would allow Hillary to lose. Just last night, all over MSM sites the headline "TRUMP WANTS PUNISHMENT FOR ABORTIONS". When of course the actual quote was he wanted punishment for ILLEGAL abortions. A very reasonable position. Its ridiculous the levels the MSM will go to ensure a Dem victory.
She got what she deserved. Punch me and I would punch you back. He was right about the face of tolerance.
![[eyeroll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/rolleye/rolleye0011.r191677.gif "Eye roll [eyeroll]")
The establishment is 'the establishment' for a reason. They don't want anyone who isn't willing to play ball. Trump is not that. Cruz is not that. Sanders is not that. They have no interest in either of those candidates, and would much rather have a lifetime politician like Clinton win because she can be controlled. The real shame here is that the American people are clearly unhappy on all sides of the political spectrum with government, however the best options we have for making that change are a 72 year old fringe politician who has no chance of gaining support for his initiatives, or a billionaire egomaniac who will always do what is best for himself regardless of what impact it has on the country.
Personally I hope that third party votes really rise this year. Everyone should always vote for the person that they think will do the best job of a) representing their interest and b) representing the interest of their region. The whole 'vote for a party' mentality is nonsense. The parties are about promoting themselves and keeping themselves in power, and not about doing what is best for their constituents.
Personally I hope that third party votes really rise this year. Everyone should always vote for the person that they think will do the best job of a) representing their interest and b) representing the interest of their region. The whole 'vote for a party' mentality is nonsense. The parties are about promoting themselves and keeping themselves in power, and not about doing what is best for their constituents.
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I didn't say $17.7 million wasn't significant...but it isn't an amount that he can't afford to spend, an amount that requires he give up something in order to do it. Trump claims that his name alone is worth $3 Billion. An $18 million expenditure on a $3 billion asset is really pocket change. And to be sure you know that Trump is structuring his expenses in a way that he can write off most if not all of it on his taxes which when you are in his tax bracket is significant.
As for the abortion issue...if you listened to the whole interview he was all over the map with his answers which is just further proof that he just makes it up as he goes along. Abortions aren't illegal so duh...it would first require that they be made so. He said in the interview that he wanted them to be illegal. He then said he would punish the women who sought abortions and then changed his answer to he would punish the doctors, not the women.
So which answer we are to believe?
How regardless of the way it is reported does it "ensure a Dem victory"? ...other than the fact that a majority of the people don't think abortions should ever be made illegal. Who does the pro-life crowd want to punish if abortions are made illegal? If you are pro-choice then the simple fact that you wish to make them illegal is a strike against the candidate.
IMHO Trump couldn't give two hoots about abortion. So why even go there other than to try and play to the GOP base? IF Trump does get elected you can bet that abortion will be item 9997 on his to-do list.
If a business person invests $17 million of his own dollars into something, its serious. Not to mention the money hes lost from other ventures because of his run.
Not all abortions are legal.
That one report alone doesn't and I didn't say that. We all know that was your attempt at a strawman.
They did not kill anything, he did. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be part of a cancer like him. People need to quit acting like this was a legitimate outside the box candidate that was character assassinated because they could not be controlled. That is just not reality.
I really think we are on the verge of fracturing into more than 2 parties. Which is a good thing IMO, as I'm starting to feel like I'm not represented by anybody
"the establishment" is such a vague and unsatisfying label. I suppose that means sitting Senators and Congressmen, the unending list of consultants that work for them, same side of aisle lobbyists, and same side of aisle thinktanks and media. Really, absolute numbers, that's a pretty small group of people. I'm guessing 99% of people who don't like Trump aren't establishment in any sense. They either don't like him because he's not conservative, he's not Republican, he's an idiot or something else.....
