https://hotair.com/archives/2018/07/09/hunch-itll-barrett-scotus/
"As for why Barrett over Kavanaugh or Kethledge, Trump’s instinct when told that he can’t do something is to do it. And Barrett is the one pick more than any other about whom he’s being told “You can’t do that!” She’s too pro-life! Collins and Murkowski will walk! Official Washington much prefers Kavanaugh or Kethledge! I think Trump processes advice like that in terms of “You don’t have the balls to do this.” It’s like waving a red cape in front of a bull. More than that, though, Barrett is very clearly the choice that’ll make his base happiest and galvanize them for a big chair-throwing culture-war brawl with the left. Kethledge is getting knocked by the right for his immigration votes, Kavanaugh is getting bashed for being a Bushie, but Barrett seems to be viewed as some sort of conquering white knight of social conservatism. I think that’s foolhardy: She’s far less of a known quantity as a judge than Kavanaugh or Kethledge are and might well disappoint conservatives in all sorts of ways over the next
40 years on the Court. (Although, crucially, probably not on abortion.) It’d be wiser to give her five years on the bench and then see where things stand.
But Republicans don’t necessarily have five years to play with. By far the stupidest argument in support of passing over Barrett this time is that Trump can save her for the eventual Ginsburg vacancy. Trump may be out of office in as little as two and a half years, though. There’s every reason to think Ginsburg can hang on until then. And if she does, it might plausibly be another full decade before a Republican president gets to fill a Court seat. If so, at 56, Barrett will be starting to edge out of the age window for likely Court nominees. Also, as
Ross Douthatnoted yesterday, it makes little sense politically to save Barrett for the Ginsburg seat even if there were a guarantee that Republicans would get to fill it. Replacing Kennedy with Barrett won’t shift the Court dramatically further right; replacing Ginsburg with her obviously would, which would make the cultural and political battle that much more wrenching. If Trump’s going to appoint someone who might be more tolerable to Democrats (like the low-key Hardiman), doing it with the Ginsburg vacancy makes more sense than doing it now.
The big knock against Barrett is that she can’t get confirmed. Collins and Murkowski allegedly will choke on her strong pro-life stance and walk. Trump should dare them to do it and make an enemy of the right forever. More to the point, he should dare Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill, Doug Jones, and Bill Nelson to do it — every day, by name, on Twitter. Trump needs to keep red-state Democrats in the spotlight on this relentlessly; if he doesn’t, they’ll hide behind Collins and Murky and vote however they do, expecting if the nomination goes down that the two centrist Republicans will bear the brunt of the backlash. Trump can’t let that happen. If I were him, I’d ignore Collins and Murkowski entirely and treat those seven Democrats as de facto independents for confirmation purposes, hammering the message that the nominee’s fate is in their hands alone. The only way to equalize the intense pressure they’ll be getting from the left to vote no is with a presidential bullhorn aimed straight at their red-state constituents, every day from now to the confirmation vote. If the pressure gets intense enough, maybe — probably not, but
maybe — Manchin and another Dem would panic and vote yes even if the two Republicans vote no. And if they don’t, making a public spectacle out of them will make their defeats in November more likely."
All Trump needs is two yays out of the nine senators I just named. Can he and McConnell get two for the first Republican woman nominee since Sandra Day O’Connor, whose Catholicism is destined to be demagogued in ugly ways by the left over the next few months? Like I say, when you tell him he can’t do something, that’s when he wants to try. My money’s on Barrett.
