It's a loss when you drop 15-20% from the last election which has held in all the special elections so far. If that trend holds to the midterms its an absolute beatdown for the GOP. 10% loses them the house by 15-20 seats. 15% makes the senate a complete toss up, Cruz losing would probably flip it. 20% loses the senate. Democrats didn't even put any effort or money into the 8th district race while the GOP was forced to spend out the ass in a district they usually win by 20-30%. The race will also be redone in November which will add more support to Tipirneni.