Was finally able to read the link. Thanks for providing!
First, the CEPR does not claim that retiring baby boomers are not impacting the decreasing labor participation rate. The author-less article finds issues with the WaPo labeling increasing retirement as 'largely due to demographic shifts'. As I previously mentioned, the majority of the decreasing labor participation rate from 2008 to 2012 is due to the economic environment from the Great Recession and subsequent economic malaise. This CEPR article also fails to separate workers in prime-age (25-54) leaving the work force from the impact of the Great Recession.
It's a sloppy article from the CEPR to be honest. The original WaPo article it references also points to the recession, and the issues with the 'blurry margins' of the work force, which the CEPR completely ignores.
Going back to my argument of the aging population having a significant impact, I'm going by the
BLS report from 2006 citing the beginning of the decrease in the LFPR at 2000, with the first reason listed being "the impact of the baby-boom generation on the labor force".
Per the BLS :
"The impact of the baby-boom generation on the composition and growth of the labor force will continue to be a key factor. As this large cohort ages, the increase in the share of the older labor force and, eventually, the exit of the baby-boom cohort from the workforce will be the main factor in lowering the growth of the labor force."
Here's an article listing better support than the CEPR on the reasons behind the
decreasing rate. From the article :
"But since 2000, the labor force rate has been steadily declining as the baby-boom generation has been retiring. Because of this, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago expects the labor force participation rate to be lower in 2020 than it is today, regardless of how well the economy does."
Lastly, looks like we need a quick correction to the denominator (labor force eligible population) calculation of the LFPR. This number does include people older than 65 (excluding military employees and institutionalized citizens). So, the aging population impact is greater than I originally argued.
Y'all on the right need to know this as the LFPR continues to shrink over the next 4 years.