2 things in response to this. First, I think the Big12 is top to bottom better than the SEC. Close, but they will likely get more teams in. Second, the committee evidently eliminated the notion of looking at how you were playing at the end of the season and now grade every game, from the first one to the last one the same, so the fact that we are hot now doesn't necessarily bump us up in the eyes of the committee. Having said that, I do believe we are one of the best 8 teams in the country, and depending what happens in other tournaments could possibly get a 2 seed. I don't see a ton of difference between a 2 and 3, but a definite difference between a 3 and a 4.
Anybody think a 2 seed is possible?
- Thread starter Catman100
- Start date
It’s possible. But I don’t really care.
The seeding is based on nerd numbers now and fake numbers like kenpompom
I don’t care what seed. I don’t care who we play or where we play.
Just play.
Whomever has to play us is who will be upset.
Go Big Blue!!🏀👍
Yes, a 2 seed is possible. Houston, Purdue, UConn, UNC, UT, Ariz will all stay ahead of us (I guess if 1 of those last 3 lost opening Conf-T game, then maybe we pass them. That leaves one 2-seed spot left. If one of those next 5-6 teams (including UK) win their Conf-T that gives that team the advantage for that last spot. We would even have a tiny chance at it if we made it to the final of the SEC-T.
But if Iowa St win B12-T instead of Houston, or Creighton win BE-T instead of UConn, then they should get it.
But if we don't win the SEC-T, but Duke or Auburn or Illinois win theirs, then yeah the could possibly take it.
Committee notoriously under values the SEC especially KY. We lose Friday I hope we get a 4 but all the numbers say we are a 5 and will probably get one.
Kentucky has 5 quad 1A wins, and the SEC is the 2nd best conference in college ball.
That is not a 5 seed, I get the point about the past but Kentucky is a 3 seed probably right now and the floor is a 4 seed
As OP mentions, the top 6 teams are locked in at this point, or at least locked in in the sense that they aren’t dropping below the 2 seed line.
So that leaves two opens spots for a 2. Unfortunately I think Kentucky is conference tourney bracket blocked from gaining the needed ground due to Creighton and Marquette being on the same side of the BE bracket, and thus it’s extremely likely that one of them makes the final and locks up a 2. Same thing with Baylor and Iowa State.
All four of those teams are ahead of us right now and we all know the SECT title game doesn’t matter so I think we are stuck as a 3 for the ceiling, barring multiple upsets for those four teams, which ain’t happening
So that leaves two opens spots for a 2. Unfortunately I think Kentucky is conference tourney bracket blocked from gaining the needed ground due to Creighton and Marquette being on the same side of the BE bracket, and thus it’s extremely likely that one of them makes the final and locks up a 2. Same thing with Baylor and Iowa State.
All four of those teams are ahead of us right now and we all know the SECT title game doesn’t matter so I think we are stuck as a 3 for the ceiling, barring multiple upsets for those four teams, which ain’t happening
We are not getting a 2 Seed. They will still probably give it to Kansas. I still think we get put in a favorable region to get our fans there, the NCAA loves Money and Storylines.
My opinion is a 3 seed will be the max. I just don't see, with the losses we have, jumping those other teams to make it to the 2 seed line.
Not going to get a 2 seed. Need to win Friday to lock up a 3. Win Friday,Sat might get the Highest #3
I don't think the SEC under values the SEC. They undervalue winning the SEC-T title game, probably because it is on Sunday and they don't want to be changing around so much last minute.
Most projections have us as one of the last 2 3-seeds OR as one of the first 2 4-seeds. I'm not sure any have us as a 5 any longer. I think to almost all of BBN (except you) a 4-seed would be a disappointment.
I guess if we lost our opening SEC-T game AND all the wrong teams won making it to their title games or winning them, then it's remotely possible we could fall to a 5. But that is very unlikely. It's more likely we win the SEC-T and become a 2 than dropping to a 5.
Why do I think a 2 is in play?
- winning the SEC-T would have us winning 10 of 11, 8 straight
- that 11 game stretch would include wins "at" UT, "at" Auburn, vs Alabama, and then likely vs 2 of those 3 again, so 5 wins vs top 10 NET teams with 2 of them on the Road and only 1 at Home
- add in UNC, that would be 6 wins vs top 10 NET teams total (I think more than ANY other team)
What about other teams who have the chance at that last 2 seed ?
- Creighton has 3 really good wins (UConn, Alabama, Marq), best road win is Villanova; also has 8 losses including to Butler at home. But if they make it to the BE-T final (but lose again to UConn) then it may be tough to jump them, but if they lose before that I don't think so.
- Marquette has 3 really good wins (KU, Creighton, at Illinois), but also lost at home to Butler; Marq or Creighton likely makes it to the BE-T final but if neither do then I think that puts us in the driver's seat, but if it's Marq and then they lose to UConn we may still get it
- Duke, their ONLY chance is to win the ACC-T, but even then beating UNC in that title game would be 1 of ONLY 2 really good wins (Baylor), while they have 2 bad losses at Arkansas and at Ga Tech
- Auburn, if we win the SEC-T then Auburn can't. Their only chance is to win the SEC-T, hope both Marq & Creighton don't make the BE-T Final and Duke doesn't win the ACC-T.
- S.Carolina (same as Auburn)
- Illinois (very similar to Duke), their best win is at (unranked) Wisc, so beating Purdue for the B10-T title would be their ONLY really good win. I think even if we lost in the SEC-T Final we would stay ahead of them if they won the B10-T
- KU (done)
- Baylor does have some nice wins, and no bad losses, but 9 losses. So if they could pull off the B12-T title, then they may have a shot at the 2 (depending on UK, Marq & Creighton)
So in probability/odds, I would put these teams at:
35% Creighton
25% UK
25% Marquette
10% Baylor
5% combined (Duke, Auburn, S.Car., Illinois)
- winning the SEC-T would have us winning 10 of 11, 8 straight
- that 11 game stretch would include wins "at" UT, "at" Auburn, vs Alabama, and then likely vs 2 of those 3 again, so 5 wins vs top 10 NET teams with 2 of them on the Road and only 1 at Home
- add in UNC, that would be 6 wins vs top 10 NET teams total (I think more than ANY other team)
What about other teams who have the chance at that last 2 seed ?
- Creighton has 3 really good wins (UConn, Alabama, Marq), best road win is Villanova; also has 8 losses including to Butler at home. But if they make it to the BE-T final (but lose again to UConn) then it may be tough to jump them, but if they lose before that I don't think so.
- Marquette has 3 really good wins (KU, Creighton, at Illinois), but also lost at home to Butler; Marq or Creighton likely makes it to the BE-T final but if neither do then I think that puts us in the driver's seat, but if it's Marq and then they lose to UConn we may still get it
- Duke, their ONLY chance is to win the ACC-T, but even then beating UNC in that title game would be 1 of ONLY 2 really good wins (Baylor), while they have 2 bad losses at Arkansas and at Ga Tech
- Auburn, if we win the SEC-T then Auburn can't. Their only chance is to win the SEC-T, hope both Marq & Creighton don't make the BE-T Final and Duke doesn't win the ACC-T.
- S.Carolina (same as Auburn)
- Illinois (very similar to Duke), their best win is at (unranked) Wisc, so beating Purdue for the B10-T title would be their ONLY really good win. I think even if we lost in the SEC-T Final we would stay ahead of them if they won the B10-T
- KU (done)
- Baylor does have some nice wins, and no bad losses, but 9 losses. So if they could pull off the B12-T title, then they may have a shot at the 2 (depending on UK, Marq & Creighton)
So in probability/odds, I would put these teams at:
35% Creighton
25% UK
25% Marquette
10% Baylor
5% combined (Duke, Auburn, S.Car., Illinois)
Down goes Puke and Creighton.
The road to a 2 seed is getting less crowded.
The road to a 2 seed is getting less crowded.
If Baylor and/or Marquette lose tonight things could get really interesting. I think we lock in a top three seed with a win tomorrow.
With a win on Friday. Uk should get the 2 seed. But don't expect the committee to do uk any favors..
I don’t get why we catch so much flak for being inconsistent or taking “bad losses” but nobody says a thing about Arizona, who has worse losses and no big wins in nearly three months. Every criticism we get is even more true about Arizona but somehow they’re a lock for a two seed.
With Creighton, Duke and Kansas dropping their first conference tournament games, if we win on Friday and Saturday, I think we can squeak out a #2 Seed. It's a longshot, but possible.
I definitely think we are the 5th best team in the country and deserving of the top 2 seed. We have definitely passed the "Eye test" over the last month and one of the hottest teams coming into March.
I definitely think we are the 5th best team in the country and deserving of the top 2 seed. We have definitely passed the "Eye test" over the last month and one of the hottest teams coming into March.
Somehow, with the way the computer rankings are treating us, I think we could win all 3 games 100 to 50 and we would move down to a 4 seed. The committee will say something like "UK did fine but others with better metrics did better". We decided that KU minus the 2 dudes needed more respect and will have those guys back. Things like that.
Probably we are a 3 seed with 2 wins or more. We are a 4 see if we lose today or tomorrow. Just a gut feeling.
Probably we are a 3 seed with 2 wins or more. We are a 4 see if we lose today or tomorrow. Just a gut feeling.
They don't admit it, but I'd say the bracket is about finished already. They don't want to admit the conf tourneys mean nothing but honestly they don't.
I think it'll be finished by 6 pm Saturday. I think UT gets a 2 seed , Carolina will get a 1. We have a slight chance at a 2, but it looks like a 3.
No shot at a 2. Put your committee hat on and look at the numbers like they do. We are too far behind in quad 1 and 2 wins to catch any teams on the 2 line. And we still have that ugly quad 3 loss. And our SOS isn't really that great. And recency bias means nothing, it's full body of work. At best we can get the top 3 seed.
Marquette and Creighton both look like a 2 seed to me. With presumably Houston, Purdue, UConn clearly 1's, UNC a 1, UT a 2, Arizona a 2 there's your top 8 seeds. Kentucky ain't getting into that. The SC is truly creating something nefarious for us all this year. Win or lose the SECT, it doesn't matter. 3 seed and I'll take whatever numbskullduggery thing they create for us.
This is the NCAA tournament selection committee we are talking about !
Sends shivers down my spine ! lol
I'm still personally on board with :
Midwest
1) Purdue
2) Iowa State
3) Kentucky
4)Duke
but that will never happen...right ?
This is the NCAA tournament selection committee we are talking about !
Sends shivers down my spine ! lol
I'm still personally on board with :
Midwest
1) Purdue
2) Iowa State
3) Kentucky
4)Duke
but that will never happen...right ?
Duke and Creighton did not drop not 1 spot after their losses yesterday in the NET
Duke still at 10
Creighton still at 11
I think the computer numbers will be too much for Kentucky to overcome.
Kentucky at 18 right now
We will see if the committee seeds teams based on how teams look and your quality of wins and bad losses vs what the computers tell you what they are.
Duke still at 10
Creighton still at 11
I think the computer numbers will be too much for Kentucky to overcome.
Kentucky at 18 right now
We will see if the committee seeds teams based on how teams look and your quality of wins and bad losses vs what the computers tell you what they are.
TV will stop that. With several conferences championships on Saturday. They have to have the SEC and Big 10 championships on Sunday for something to air.
If anything I think it hurts Kentucky. Without the game against UT, we don't really have teams left to elevate our resume enough to move us up. May put both UK and UT as 3s though.
Yep, that's the way I feel as well. Get a 3 seed so you can at least avoid the 1 seed until the Elite 8 if the chalk holds. Better that than 4 seed and have to play the 1 seed in the Sweet 16.
3 seed. Lazy committee will have it most of it locked in by this evening. This has played out dozens of times. Conference tourneys are used to justify their decisions not to base their decisions on.
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