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Max seed for UK?

JonathanW

JonathanW

All-American
Jan 3, 2003
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I've heard anywhere from a 2 to a 4 as being the best we can do at this point.

While I think it would be very difficult for us to get a 2, requiring us to win our next 6 games and maybe a little luck on a few other teams having more than 1 loss, I think it is possible.
But I think a 3 is a realisitic goal (& just as good).

So, the purpose of this post is that I decided to compare 2 teams, not UK, with very different current expected seeds.

Team A: currently projected as a 3 seed
Team B: currently projected as a 6 seed

Losses: Team A = 6 / Team B = 5
Current NET of all Loses: Team A = 4*, @122, @139, 47, @9, @25 / Team B = @23, @6, 97, @7, 91 (* not Home or Away)
Best (top 40) NET Wins: Team A = 13*, 24*, 23, 25 / Team B = 19, @5, 28

IMO, honestly you can make a case for Team B to be ahead of Team A, but without a doubt they are VERY close. Team B has 1 less loss, AND it's Road losses are to much better teams, but it's Home losses are to worse teams. Team A has 1 more "good win", but Team B's best win is much better.
So, my assessment is that these 2 teams are at most 1 more loss by Team A or 1 more "good win" by Team B apart.

BTW, if you are wondering, these are Duke and South Carolina.
 
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Agree win out and win the SECT then looking at a 3 seed possibly 2 depending on how other teams finish their season.
 
I think the highest possible is 3 seed. That losing streak at home will leave people still doubting this team, even if we reel off 4 straight wins to end the season. I feel like the selection committee has those top two lines pretty sewed up unless something drastic happens. Seed 3-5 is the wild, wild west in my opinion.
 
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BigBlueManSouthCentralKY said:
Saw something this morning that had us a 5 seed playing 12 seed Stanford in Indianapolis.
Click to expand...
I doubt you saw Stanford. They are 12-15 and will not be in the tournament. Maybe Sanford, but definitely not Stanford.

If we go 3-1 over the last 4 games and win 1 game in the SEC tournament, I see a 5 seed.
Go 3-1, get to the Finals of the SEC tournament, MAYBE a 4 seed.
Go 4-0 and get to the finals, 3 seed, win the tournament, 2 seed. (doing this would get us at least 4 more Quad 1 wins (Miss ST, UT, 2 more in the tournament if the bracket goes as planned.
The game tonight is HUGE, it is a Quad 1 game.
 
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Let’s just win these next 3 and then start to worry about seeding, every time we hve looked ahead this year Kentucky ends up losing
 
I don't think we win out, but, if we did, we would beat #5 UT (NET Ranking), and then most likely a combo of current 5, 6 and 7 NET ranked teams in the SEC Tournament. That would be 5 top 10 NET wins in our last 10 games. I'm not sure any other team could match that....moving us up to a 3, possibly a 2 depending on how things play out with other schools.
 
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catsfanbgky said:
I doubt you saw Stanford. They are 12-15 and will not be in the tournament. Maybe Sanford, but definitely not Stanford.

If we go 3-1 over the last 4 games and win 1 game in the SEC tournament, I see a 5 seed.
Go 3-1, get to the Finals of the SEC tournament, MAYBE a 4 seed.
Go 4-0 and get to the finals, 3 seed, win the tournament, 2 seed. (doing this would get us at least 4 more Quad 1 wins (Miss ST, UT, 2 more in the tournament if the bracket goes as planned.
The game tonight is HUGE, it is a Quad 1 game.
Click to expand...
Bet your right. Samford has only lost about three games this year. But I did think it said Stanford because remember thinking they have been pointed out as a woke college.
 
2 Seed is not possible, the 1's and 2's are pretty much locked in at this point IMO.

A couple of scenarios that could still play out for us to get on the 3/4 Line:

3 Seed: I think we would have to win out and win the SECT.
4 Seed: Go 3-1 to end the season (UT loss) and make it to Saturday in Nashville

UK has a real shot at a 4, they can write their own story from here on out.
 
Would you rather be a 4/5 or a 6?

Example - Katz currently has UK a 5 seed in the West. The path to the Elite 8 would be Princeton, Creighton, Arizona. If UK were the 6 there, for example, that path would be USF, Duke, Kansas.
 
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JonathanW said:
I've heard anywhere from a 2 to a 4 as being the best we can do at this point.

While I think it would be very difficult for us to get a 2, requiring us to win our next 6 games and maybe a little luck on a few other teams having more than 1 loss, I think it is possible.
But I think a 3 is a realisitic goal (& just as good).

So, I decided to compare 2 teams, not UK, with very different current expected seeds.

Team A: currently projected as a 3 seed
Team B: currently projected as a 6 seed

Losses: Team A = 6 / Team B = 5
Current NET of all Loses: Team A = 4*, @122, @139, 47, @9, @25 / Team B = @23, @6, 97, @7, 91 (* not Home or Away)
Best (top 40) NET Wins: Team A = 13*, 24*, 23, 25 / Team B = 19, @5, 28

IMO, honestly you can make a case for Team B to be ahead of Team A, but without a doubt they are VERY close. Team B has 1 less loss, AND it's Road losses are to much better teams, but it's Home losses are to worse teams. Team A has 1 more "good win", but Team B's best win is much better.
So, my assessment is that these 2 teams are at most 1 more loss by Team A or 1 more "good win" by Team B apart.

BTW, if you are wondering, these are Duke and South Carolina.
Click to expand...
Duke is hot garbage and if they played in the SEC would easily have 8-9 losses if not more. The ACC is trash this year.
 
Win out, best we get is a 3 seed. But the way the committee treats us historically and how they favor other conferences and teams, we'll probably need to win out regular season and at least make the SECT championship game (which as we know doesn't matter - they've made their seeds by end of the day Saturday).

Lose just to UT and get to SECT championship game, likely a 4 seed.

Lose tonight and UT and get to SECT champ game, 5 seed.

Lose tonight and UT and lose in either first game or semis of SECT, dangerously close to a 6 seed.

The committee is going to ding us for anything other than an impressive finish to the end of the season. We need to be 4 seed or better for me to feel comfortable going into the NCAAT.
 
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I think we're currently a 5.

Win tonight, win the next 2, you're probably a 4, assuming a loss at UT and at least 1 SEC Tournament win
Lose tonight, lose at UT, you're probably a 6.
Lose tonight, win at UT, probably a 5. MAYBE a 4.

Win out, win at least 1 in the SECT--I think the "what have you done for me lately?" pushes us to a 3.

I think the 2 seed line is pretty well set. UNC/Arizona/UT will get the last 1. Kansas and Marquette will join 2 of those teams to make the 2's.
 
There are a ton of moving parts to this, it's not just about what we do, but what other teams do. I think our absolute ceiling and best-case scenario would be the last #2 seed, but we would need very favorable and unlikely things to happen to other teams ahead of us while passing the eye test in a big way the rest of the way. I think we end up being a 3/4 seed, but we are going to need to win a lot of games for that. I think we can drop the UT game and make it to the SEC tourney championship and sneak into a 3 seed.
 
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BelfryKYCatFanatic said:
2 Seed is not possible, the 1's and 2's are pretty much locked in at this point IMO.

A couple of scenarios that could still play out for us to get on the 3/4 Line:

3 Seed: I think we would have to win out and win the SECT.
4 Seed: Go 3-1 to end the season (UT loss) and make it to Saturday in Nashville

UK has a real shot at a 4, they can write their own story from here on out.
Click to expand...
So you think if was to win and win the SEC tournament (not likely), we could not steal a 2 ?
#2 seed UT, keep in mind we would probably beat them twice IF we win out. Definitely overtake them even if UK is their only losses.
The current 3 seeds (projected)
Alabama - have already crushed them, probably would beat them again (if we win out)

Duke - Could lose not once, but twice to UNC. Even if they do not lose other than to UNC (could lose again to somebody), us winning out and them dropping 2 more games, UK passes them.

Creighton - 20-8 currently. haves games left :
Seton Hall
Marquette - (lost to them 1st game)
@ Nova (lost at home to Nova)
Lose 2/3, they would be 21-10, not counting another L in the Big East tournament.
 
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catsfanbgky said:
So you think if was to win and win the SEC tournament (not likely), we could not steal a 2 ?
#2 seed UT, keep in mind we would probably beat them twice IF we win out. Definitely overtake them even if UK is their only losses.
The current 3 seeds (projected)
Alabama - have already crushed them, probably would beat them again (if we win out)

Duke - Could lose not once, but twice to UNC. Even if they do not lose other than to UNC (could lose again to somebody), us winning out and them dropping 2 more games, UK passes them.

Creighton - 20-8 currently. haves games left :
Seton Hall
Marquette - (lost to them 1st game)
@ Nova (lost at home to Nova)
Lose 2/3, they would be 21-10, not counting another L in the Big East tournament.
Click to expand...
Was just an opinion man, chill out.
 
Win out and SEC tournament and the bottom 2 seed. Win out and make championship game and a 3 seed. I see us as a 4 seed when all is said n done
 
know1 said:
Then what is the point?

I'm saying I think our max might be 3 and will likely be a 4. Top end could be 5.
Click to expand...
The point of this was how close this year the 2-3 seeds are to the 5 (even 6) seeds. A team that is a 2 right now could easily be a 5 or 6 in 2-3 weeks, and a 5 right now could be a 3 if not a 2 in 3 weeks.
 
Win out and win the SECT (beating UT twice) and you are a lock for 3, most likely a 2 easy.

Win out and get a WHOLE LOT of help and a 1 could be in play. Especially if they win impressively. Winning out would mean potentially 2 wins over #4 and one over #11 or #14

Lose @UT and in the Semis or Finals of the SECT and it's probably a 4 but wiggle room to a 3 or 5 depending on everyone else.
 
I'll say 26 and 8 would get UK the last 2 or top 3. Committees choice on which one gives them the juicy matchups.
 
JonathanW said:
The point of this was how close this year the 2-3 seeds are to the 5 (even 6) seeds. A team that is a 2 right now could easily be a 5 or 6 in 2-3 weeks, and a 5 right now could be a 3 if not a 2 in 3 weeks.
Click to expand...
Well everyone else is pretty much answering the same way I did, so maybe your "point" was lost in translation.
 
BelfryKYCatFanatic said:
2 Seed is not possible, the 1's and 2's are pretty much locked in at this point IMO.

A couple of scenarios that could still play out for us to get on the 3/4 Line:

3 Seed: I think we would have to win out and win the SECT.
4 Seed: Go 3-1 to end the season (UT loss) and make it to Saturday in Nashville

UK has a real shot at a 4, they can write their own story from here on out.
Click to expand...

The 2's are FAR FROM LOCKED.

The only near LOCKS are that Houston, UConn and Purdue will be 1's (without a major 3-week 4-loss slide, very unlikely).
Who are the 2's (& the 4th 1)? UT, Marq, Arizona, UNC, & KU.
All 5 of those teams already have 6 losses, and are likely looking at 1-3 more.

UT: has lost at Miss St, at TAMU, and to S.Car at Home. AND they have the toughest remaining schedule in the country playing UK, @ Alabama, Auburn, and @ S.Car. before the SEC-T. Almost a lock they add 2 more losses, if not 3. If they come out of that with only 1 loss they should be the 4th 1 seed. 2 losses they should keep a 2 seed, 3 losses and they probably slip.

Marquette: lost @ to bubble teams (Prov & SH), and at home to Butler. They still have games left @ Creighton, vs UConn, and the Prov team that beat them already, before the BE-T. So 2 more losses is likely with a decent chance at 3. With 2 they have a chance to keep their 2 seed, but not with 3.

Arizona: has lost at Stanford and Ore St, and at home to FAU and Wash St, they are 4-3 on Road in a weak Pac-12, and 3 of last 4 games are on Road, before P10-T. So 2 more losses and they should slip out of the 2 slot, 3 and they definitely would.

UNC: has lost at GaTech, at Syracuse & Clemson at Home, and UT is their only impressive non-conf win. They are in a weaker conference, which shouldn't give them bonus points, but they still do have @ Duke, then ACC-T, if they only lose 1 more they probably keep a 2 seed, with 2 losses they may drop, 3 guaranteed drop.

Kansas: Kansas has lost at UCF, at WVU, at KSU, they are 2-5 on Road in B12, and they still have Road games @ Houston & @ Baylor before the B12-T. 2 more losses is likely, with a chance at 3. And they are probably the last 2 currently, so 2 losses may drop them out of a 2 seed, 3 definitely would.

So please tell me, where are these 2 Seed LOCKs you think exist?
 
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JonathanW said:
The 2's are FAR FROM LOCKED.

The only near LOCKS are that Houston, UConn and Purdue will be 1's (without a major 3-week 4-loss slide, very unlikely).
Who are the 2's (& the 4th 1)? UT, Marq, Arizona, UNC, & KU.
All 5 of those teams already have 6 losses, and are likely looking at 1-3 more.

UT: has lost at Miss St, at TAMU, and to S.Car at Home. AND they have the toughest remaining schedule in the country playing UK, @ Alabama, Auburn, and @ S.Car. before the SEC-T. Almost a lock they add 2 more losses, if not 3. If they come out of that with only 1 loss they should be the 4th 1 seed. 2 losses they should keep a 2 seed, 3 losses and they probably slip.

Marquette: lost @ to bubble teams (Prov & SH), and at home to Butler. They still have games left @ Creighton, vs UConn, and the Prov team that beat them already, before the BE-T. So 2 more losses is likely with a decent chance at 3. With 2 they have a chance to keep their 2 seed, but not with 3.

Arizona: has lost at Stanford and Ore St, and at home to FAU and Wash St, they are 4-3 on Road in a weak Pac-12, and 3 of last 4 games are on Road, before P10-T. So 2 more losses and they should slip out of the 2 slot, 3 and they definitely would.

UNC: has lost at GaTech, at Syracuse & Clemson at Home, and UT is their only impressive non-conf win. They are in a weaker conference, which shouldn't give them bonus points, but they still do have @ Duke, then ACC-T, if they only lose 1 more they probably keep a 2 seed, with 2 losses they may drop, 3 guaranteed drop.

Kansas: Kansas has lost at UCF, at WVU, at KSU, they are 2-5 on Road in B12, and they still have Road games @ Houston & @ Baylor before the B12-T. 2 more losses is likely, with a chance at 3. And they are probably the last 2 currently, so 2 losses may drop them out of a 2 seed, 3 definitely would.

So please tell me, where are these 2 Seed LOCKs you think exist?
Click to expand...
I think the more "If's" you need, the less likely it becomes.

Lunardi has us at 18. BracketMatrix has us at 19.

To get to a 3, you have to jump 6 or 7 teams.
To get to a 2, you have to jump 10 or 11 teams.

I think winning the next 3 is worth a seed line. We'll be a 4. Then if we win @UT, that's probably a few spots up the ladder, if not a full seed line.

Assuming we make it to the SECT Semi-Finals: We'll get 2 more Quad 1 opportunities. If we can beat 2 of Auburn, Florida, UT, Bama, that may propel us to a 2. But I think we need some of the 2's to lose a couple of games.

But if ABSOLUTELY everything breaks right--we could probably sneak into one of the last 2 seeds. I just worry we won't have all of the dominoes we need.
 
We still had a shot at a #2 before the LSU loss but now we have to win all our games before the big tourney to get a #3. There will likely be a #1 seed with 6 losses and at least one #2 with 7 losses, could have been us but the LSU game blew that chance.
 
I don't see anyone locked in, other than the 3 number 1 seeds.

However, based on how the season shapes up though, I'd be inclined to put UT, KU, Arizona, and UNC all there on that 1-2 line right now. I think our only chance of stealing a 2 seed would be to take it from Tennessee AND not lose another game elsewhere. Otherwise, we are looking at Marquette dropping off.

It's not going to hurt UT and KU if they lose some of those remaining tough games. UT loses at Bama? Not gonna matter. KU loses at Houston?
 
Good Wins: UNC, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss

Losses that won't hurt us: Florida, South Carolina, Kansas, Tennessee

Bad Losses: UNCW, LSU, Gonzaga, A&M
 
ukfan1622 said:
We still had a shot at a #2 before the LSU loss but now we have to win all our games before the big tourney to get a #3. There will likely be a #1 seed with 6 losses and at least one #2 with 7 losses, could have been us but the LSU game blew that chance.
Click to expand...

I disagree with that assessment. I think everyone will probably have 1-2 more losses, but if we won out, we would definitely have a shot at a 2 seed. Our remaining schedule is incredibly tough.
 
Padsfs07 said:
I disagree with that assessment. I think everyone will probably have 1-2 more losses, but if we won out, we would definitely have a shot at a 2 seed. Our remaining schedule is incredibly tough.
Click to expand...
Are you saying we could still get a #2 seed with 8 losses? I don't see that; we aren't Duke or UNCheat.
 
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