Chris Beard would be my choice, even over Hurley (because of the ridiculous amount you would have to pay, and sports personalities usually shine most before they get paid).
Career win-percentage of 69%, 15th-best among active coaches with 10 or more years of experience
2019 AP National Coach of the Year
Led three different programs to the NCAA Tournament over the previous nine years
Undefeated in the opening round at 5-0
His all-time record in the NCAA Tournament is 11-5 (.688)
Made it to 2019 National Championship game with Texas Tech.
He is a four-time conference coach of the year recipient.
High-level recruiter
Led Texas to #2 in the nation before the accusations against him
Led Ole Miss to 8 more wins than 2022-23
Won first 13 games of 2023-24
Setting his teams up for NCAAT success:
KenPom numbers tell the story for a team's likely success in the tournament. Here is how Chris Beard's teams have stacked up:
Ark. Little Rock 2015-16: AdjEM 56 / AdjO 98 / AdjD 33 - Won the first round game against Purdue (#5 seed)
Texas Tech 2016-17: AdjEM 41 / AdjO 44 / AdjD 56 - Did not make the tournament in first year at TT, but those are solid numbers, and he improved Tex. Tech. in every area from previous season.
Texas Tech 2017-18: AdjEM 11 / AdjO 50 / AdjD 4 - Put Texas Tech in position to win in the tournament, and made it to the Elite Eight
Texas Tech 2018-19: AdjEM 5 / AdjO 25 / AdjD 1 - #1 Defense, #25 offense, and made it to the Championship game
Texas Tech 2019-20: AdjEM 21 / AdjO 47 / AdjD 9 - No tournament because of COVID. This is the only season for Beard in D1 that he had a dip in winning percentage, which is to be expected after a Runner-up year.
Texas Tech 2020-21: AdjEM 17 / AdjO 32 / AdjD 18 - #6 seed, though the numbers suggest they should have been a higher seed. Big 12 was a gauntlet that year, where Tex. Tech lost 11 games, but only two were to non-top-25 teams
Texas 2021-22: AdjEM 15 / AdjO 26 / AdjD 14 - Again, Beard's team earned a #6 seed and won his first game in the tournament. He took them from a #26 on KenPom under Shaka Smart to #15.
Texas 2022-23: Beard only coached 8 games, but Texas finished with AdjEM 5 /AdjO 15 / AdjD 13 - Texas earned a #2 seed as a roster put together by Beard
Ole Miss 2023-24: AdjEM 86 / AdjO 54 / AdjD 141 - Strangely, this was is worst defensive team by a mile. He seems to be defensive-minded. He improved Ole Miss from 122 to 86 overall, and improved the offense from 148 to 54. Defensively, Ole Miss took a dip, but I would say that changes this year.
To summarize, Beard has only been outside the top-21 in three seasons as a D1 head coach, and all of them were his first year on the job at the respective program.
To compare to Cal, Kentucky has finished outside the top-21 in the following years: 2024, 2023, 2021, 2020, 2013. Four of those were in the last 5 years!
To compare with Hurley: It took Dan Hurley three years to get to the top-21 at UConn, and he never got into the top-21 at Rhode Island, which isn't surprising given the conference effect.
To compare with Scott Drew: Baylor has finished below top-21 in the following years: 2019, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2011. I'll stop there, for that covers Cal's tenure at UK.
According to metrics, he has had teams in position to win the NCAAT in three of his eight seasons coaching (four of nine if you count the year Texas ousted him), and his AdjO was only slightly off in 2020 (when there was no tournament), or it would have been half the time.
Negatively, I think a Beard hire, and possibly Dan Hurley, will mean a certain Reed Sheppard departure. Honestly, Scott Drew was probably the only coach - maybe Donovan - who could have convinced Reed for another year.
