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Purdue is now getting the Kansas in the Big 12 whistle.

It may even be worse. I haven’t seen this big of a free throw discrepancy in a close game maybe ever. I’m not one who thinks free throws have to be even either, some teams for more but I gotta question when Edey routinely gets these fouls called for him.

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Purdue outshot Northwestern 46 to 8 at the line in an overtime game.

If Cal leaves after this season…

For whatever reason, there are plenty of good young up and coming coaches out there that would kill to coach UK. Gates at Missouri is impressive, the guy at Fla. Atlantic or whatever team it was that made the final 4 last year, and then the D2 coach at the school in Missouri is very intriguing. Interested in hearing some names from you all should this happen. And to you Cal lovers, please don’t participate here if you can’t just understand the title. It’s all speculative.

Model Update Heading to Arkansas

Cats have slipped from what I would call borderline contender to unlikely to compete for a championship.

Still time to right the ship, but they need to get their act together.

Arizona barely clinging to the top spot, but they’ve lost almost their entire cushion.

Top 16:

1. Arizona 3.03
2. Houston 2.98
3. Tennessee 2.68
4. Auburn 2.63
5. Iowa St. 2.62
6. Purdue 2.58
7. Connecticut 2.40
8. Alabama 2.28
9. Kansas 2.26
10. BYU 2.23
11. Marquette 1.88
12. Kentucky 1.85
13. Michigan St. 1.82
14. Colorado 1.78
15. Duke 1.72
16. North Carolina 1.71

Rest of SEC:

24. Mississippi St
37. Mississippi
44. Florida
60. LSU
74. ATM
78. Missouri
81. South Carolina
97. Georgia
111. Arkansas
168. Vanderbilt


I’ve got us favored by 7, which frankly I don’t trust the way we’ve been playing.

Offense and Defense

I am/was a big Coen supporter. I was a huge CMS supporter and still am, but to be realistic the A&M flirtation changes everything. I don’t know there is any splash hire for OC, but just hope it will be someone Brock, Barrion, and Dane will like. Whether Stoops can or will change the offense, I believe we’ll be Ok for this upcoming season … I’m much more concerned with our defense and whether we will see any change … GBB🏈

Aging Legends Kill Programs

Syracuse: National power the majority of Boeheim's time. He got old, the game passed him by and the last 7 years he was there they never went better than 18-10 and never made it further than the Sweet 16. They're currently 14-7 with a first time head coach.

Indiana: National power under Bobby Knight. He got old, the game passed him by and the last 7 years he never finished better than 21-9 and only made it out of the first weekend once, a Sweet 16. Since then they've flamed out with Mike Davis, Sampson, Crean, Archie Miller and now Woodson making 1 finals run and 3 sweet 16s in 23 years.

Michigan State: National Power under Izzo but we're seeing his decline real time. His last 4 years his best record is 23-13, 1 sweet 16.

Georgetown: John Tompson (OG) averaged 12 losses/season and made it out of opening weekend of the tourney 1 time in his last 9 years, turning a powerhouse into a punchline that recovered for 1 small blip under his son but hasn't won anything of consequence in decades.

There are a TON of programs that let legendary coaches drag them into the ground because the coach didn't know when to retire and program and fanbases let it happen. Some coaches (Roy Williams, Jay Wright) see the writing on the wall and put the programs first. K was just a unicorn. It's abundantly clear which group Cal falls into. He's averaged 10 losses the last 6 years and made 1 Elite 8. Barnhart seems perfectly fine letting it happen, no major media members have said the words "Cal needs to go" or anything remotely strong. Its frustrating to see this happening in real time and feel like nobody with any real influence or power seems to care. The beauty of Kentucky as a program is we've won titles under 5 different coaches. We don't need to hang onto a legend as they fade out of relevancy.

7 Wildcats on the East and West ASG rosters

Maxey
Randle(shoulder injury re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks)
Bam
AD
Booker
KAT
Shai



7 players from 1 school- Kentucky. It really is embarrassing to only have won 1 title with the amount of talent that UK has had under Calipari. Idgaf who the coach would be. 3 championship game appearances is no small feat and deserves its own recognition, but that doesn't negate the fact UK should have been a dynasty in the early-mid 2010s.

End of the One and Done Era

There isn’t a single coach in the country who can assemble as talented a roster as Cal can. Who can manage egos as well as Cal can. The problem is, it’s no longer enough to have the most talented team on the court. The game has changed considerably the past 5 years with the advancement of technology and widespread adoption of analytics. The playing field is far more even, and teams with less talent have a much better understanding of how to make up for their shortcomings.

Cal is asking a group of 8-10 guys who haven’t spent considerable time playing together, and, in the case of the freshmen, often haven’t been exposed to many advanced basketball concepts to play winning basketball. When everyone was taking long 2s and PFs/Cs were posted up on opposite blocks, this worked. Talent won out. This is far from the case now, and I am convinced that Cal could land the top 5 players from each recruiting class going forward and it likely wouldn’t matter. It’s simply too much to ask of these guys.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure where we go from here. I dont want this to be a critique of Cal, because there truly is no one better at executing this strategy. I’m just not sure it’s tenable anymore.

Football The Coen stuff: What we've heard, what we think

This has been something I have been purposefully quiet about as we have tried to let information come in.

It does seem like there is definitely an openness to leaving the program after one year. There are many who believe that he is eager to get out but I am not going to speak to that. However, that belief is attached to a few perceived issues.

When Coen returned to UK it was very important for Stoops to have him for multiple years. He didn't want to be doing this carousel where there was no continuity. Continuity is one of the best things UK football has had going for it, and it hasn't been there on the offensive side of the ball recently. I believe that is why Stoops decided to bring Yenser back; need for continuity in that OL coach position.

The fact that Coen is entertaining interest from elsewhere after only one year, following that understanding, is obviously going to say something.

What I've heard from a number of people is that Coen wants there to be more discipline in the program. There is not a full on agreement across the board here. Not about the importance of discipline per se, but some have made it about how you deal with NFL guys vs college guys. Different guys will have different opinions on that. Everyone wants the very high standard all the time, but in concrete situations there will be differences of opinion.

Believe he also went back to Kentucky thinking he would have pretty much total control of the offense. I do not have any specifics in terms of what has or has not happened there, but this would be another obvious area to focus on if he is willing to entertain other offers after a year.

We have heard about the Ohio State chatter for about the last week. He has not been front and center there and I have real questions about that position, personally, given how tenuous Ryan Day's situation has become there after losing to Michigan three times in a row. If I had to guess, I would imagine they would end up with someone else. Over the past couple of days Toledo HC Jason Candle has emerged as someone who seems to make a lot of sense there, but Day looking at Coen makes sense as well.

The NFL is where I think Coen is probably the most natural fit. Big picture, I do believe he is probably just more of an NFL guy than a college guy, and the way the sport is going now coaches are fed up with the constant insanity and that probably reinforces the preference.

I don't believe Stoops & Co are probably happy to be going through this, but it speaks to the two sides just being in different places in terms of where the program is at right now. That seems to be a serious issue. I have sensed over the past year that there are some who believe the program needs to be aggressive in making changes and Coen probably falls into this camp. If he leaves, it's a serious problem for Kentucky. They would have close to $2 million for a replacement, but the job would take a hit prestige-wise with Coen leaving after only a year again. You'd then have a huge conversation over whether Kentucky should make another Scangarello-type hire (Coen-like in some ways) or go back to trying to become a program that runs, runs, runs the football. To be perfectly honest, I think there's a strong case for both sides of that argument, because there aren't a lot of OCs out there who are just QB/WR magnets like Coen has been and it's always going to be uphill sledding for a pass-friendly OC under Stoops, in my view.

Pivotal moment for the program. If Coen leaves, and I think it's very possible, it's a huge setback for the program. Yes the offense had plenty of operational issues this season and everybody owns responsibility for that, but this one would be tough to come back from, IMO.

Haven't we seen this season before?

I don't post often on the Rafters as I am not much of a CBB fan anymore. I don't like Cal, I don't like the style of play, don't like OAD, etc. But, I do keep up with UKBB and pull for them. After the past week or so, I was struck by a thought - haven't we seen this same season many years in a row?

1. Highly acclaimed recruiting class
2. Preseason high ranking
3. Expectations of THIS year, we've got it all - great big men, great shooters, unworldly athleticism, a PG who can run this 'offense' that Cal wants, etc.
4. Early season wipeouts of poor teams increase expectations
5. SEC losses to teams we shouldn't lose to
6. Cracks in the facade of invincibility
7. Same old problems rear their head: a) puzzling/lingering injuries, b) no knowledge of playing/attacking a zone defense or effective press, c) incredibly bad out of bounds defense and nonexistent offensive out of bounds plays, d) games that deteriorate into one-on-one basketball and Cal does nothing, e) inexplicable personnel decisions and rotations, f) nights where we can't buy a FT, g) Cal pulling guys so often and so quickly that the team never seems to find a rhythm, h) a team that seemingly doesn't get any better as the season wears on, i) guards that get beat off the dribble consistently, j) 'soft' big men who are asked to play the 5 but are physically more suited for the 4, k) a growing acknowledgement that the 5*, OAD, superstars have very obvious holes in their game (lack of an outside shot, not a good defender, mediocre ballhandling, selfish, not very physical, low basketball IQ, et al), etc.
8. Reduced expectations and the growing sentiment that, once again, Cal's Cats won't make much noise in the NCAA tournament
9. Wild speculation as to who goes, who stays (who cares?)
10. Wash, rinse, repeat

This list seems to have been played out many seasons over the past 8-10 years and I just can get invested very much in UKBB anymore. Cal isn't going to change and I feel it's too much money to get rid of him, so I see nothing but several more seasons of the above until either Cal retires or his buyout is more manageable.

Am I completely off base?
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