Wow, Shep -9 on plus/minus?
- Thread starter HerrosHeroes
- Start date
I just spit my taco 🌮 out damn u!
Yeah it's weird how much it's been brought up here lately as if it has any meaning.
+\- is one of the most useful stats in basketball but not in the way it’s been portrayed by Cal. One game +\- is meaningless, but over time as you accrue more and more data points it shows trends. Smart coaches follow those trends. Of course there are other stats, as well as the eye test to factor in but +\- is one of the most valuable metrics when used correctly.
It's been brought up here so much lately because our favorite player happened to have the best +/- score in the nation. That made us think it's really important. But now that he's had a negative +/- game ...well, not as much.
It's certainly an imperfect stat, but it still is useful because:
--you know how some players help their team win through ways that don't get measured in statistics? Plus/minus helps identify who they are.
--you know how teams often just do better when one player comes in and worse when he goes out? Plus/minus helps identify who they are.
The best way I’ve seen it used is with groups of players. You may look at when 2-3 guys are on the court together or even a particular group of 5. It’s still valuable for individuals but there are a lot of parameters that need to be set before hand.
It's funny people used the +- stat as a positive (it was) for Sheppard but had no idea what it actually meant. Like Blue2thebone said, it's great for creating rotations for players. I'm sure Dillingham and Sheppard at the same time has a very high +- which is why they usually bring them in together.
Five minutes of zone defense probably wins this game.
Not rocket science when you allow one player beat you one on one every time down the floor.
Cal is a disgrace on coaching strategy and making adjustments to what the other team is doing to beat you.
Oh yea OP, I've seen you on that Wendy's commercial recently...
And their next game they'll hit nothing and lose. That's how this goes - these teams walk into Rupp and unload like a Top 25 team, then waddle back into insignificance.
At what point will our fans finally realize that it is our team's total lack of preparation and game management that allows these teams to beat up on us at Rupp??
You don't see these team's or even team's much better than those that beat us at home go into Kansas, Duke, UNC, Gonzaga, Tennessee and the such and beat them on their home floor.
I wonder what the difference is between us and those teams????
I'm sure I'm not the first in the thread to post this because I thought the topic was not worthy of reading the entire thread but it's really pretty simple: Sheppard played almost the entire game and nobody in with him at any point except maybe Reeves played their A game for more than maybe a few minutes. Reeves not being clutch is part of his A game. Sheppard didn't really play his best game but he was still our best player against UNC Wilmington; he just had very little help.
OP, plus minus (+/-) does not look at your individual contributions. Say you have 2 players that go in and out at the same time all game, so both play for example the same 30 minutes. One scores gets a triple double 30-10-10, doesn't miss a shot, no TOs and 5 steals. But the other is scoreless 0-0-0 with 4 fouls, 6 TOs on 0-9 shooting. Guess what? They have the exact same +/- (the point differential while they were on the floor).
This metric has some merit, but widely over-valued for the most part. It really needs A LOT of context to go along with it. For example, if Reed checks into the game along with Rob, and a struggling DJ and Edwards leave the game, that context matters.
But if Reed checks into the game for Adou, and a struggling DJ and Edwards stay in the game and continue to struggle, that matters.
If Reed checks into the game alongside Joey Hart, Jordan Burks, and Brennan Canada but has to play against Kansas' starters - that context matters and will most likely impact Reeds +/-
It doesn't just matter that Reed (or whoever) is in the game. It matters WHO ELSE is in the game just as much. Not just for Kentucky, but for the opponent as well. If they sub out a couple of their studs, or one of their studs gets in foul trouble or whatever, this will definitely have an impact on the metric.
From game to game this stat can be very misleading, however it is an advanced stat that can be used to assess certain lineups over the course of a season.
Remember the “basketball Benny” lineup that national writers were bringing up and espn was showing graphics of that had one of the best +/- in the country when together?
Stat could be meaningful when compared to other variations of line-ups.
But draft status/star ranking is main indicator of playing time as best as I can tell at UK, or whether or not Cal likes you.
Remember the “basketball Benny” lineup that national writers were bringing up and espn was showing graphics of that had one of the best +/- in the country when together?
Stat could be meaningful when compared to other variations of line-ups.
But draft status/star ranking is main indicator of playing time as best as I can tell at UK, or whether or not Cal likes you.
Sure.
On the flip side--as I said in the previous post:
You put Joey Hart in for 3 minutes, the other guys hit 5 3's to go on a 15-0 run. Joey is +15.
The other guys will be lower because of the ebbs and flows of the game. Did Joey Hart have the best game? Of course not.
That's why I think +/- got completely overblown the first few weeks of the season. People want the Kentucky boy to succeed. When it said he was the best player on the team, it's the most complete, perfect stat ever.
Now that he's had one in the negative, people are quick to say "Well that 1 stat isn't everything." Of course it's not. It never was.
For the life of me, I can't grasp the thought process. Lost by 7. Reed plays all but 50 seconds. Reed has a +/- of -9. Sooooooooo, even for those that don't math all that well, I figure it's fairly easy to understand the Cats were +2 in those 50 seconds.
That's the ONLY way it can be used effectively. And you have to play around with lineups a lot to make it work. It's just a horrendously overused statistic for an individual in basketball.
| Advanced Box Score Stats | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | MP | TS% | eFG% | 3PAr | FTr | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | BPM ▼ |
| Reed Sheppard | 39 | .661 | .618 | .353 | .235 | 2.8 | 22.1 | 12.6 | 41.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 13.7 | 26.7 | 122 | 104 | 14.6 |
| Aaron Bradshaw | 13 | .769 | 1.000 | .000 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 17.3 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 158 | 106 | 6.4 |
| Adou Thiero | 25 | .645 | .500 | .000 | .750 | 4.4 | 21.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 144 | 107 | 2.6 |
| Tre Mitchell | 36 | .625 | .500 | .400 | 1.600 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 9.1 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 115 | 109 | 2.2 |
| Antonio Reeves | 27 | .642 | .611 | .222 | .444 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 15.5 | 22.6 | 105 | 107 | 0.5 |
| Justin Edwards | 32 | .346 | .286 | .357 | .286 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 11.2 | 27.0 | 81 | 104 | -1.2 |
| Jordan Burks | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 117 | -2.8 | ||||||
| Rob Dillingham | 24 | .111 | .111 | .222 | .000 | 4.6 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 22.2 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 30.8 | 25.7 | 33 | 107 | -17 |
The column to the far right "BPM" stands for Box plus/minus. It's an estimate of the players effect on the game per 100 possessions above the "average". It actually factors in defense and is widely considered one of the best small sample size (game) stats for individual play in college hoops. When you look, it's really no surprise who leads the Cats in this category.
There is absolutely no reason to even use this plus minus.
This is 2023. We have other stats that can accurately assess the contribution of each individual player on the team.
This is 2023. We have other stats that can accurately assess the contribution of each individual player on the team.
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