How does the starting 5 actually perform?

[ukcatz12]

Everyone keeps saying our starting five digs us into massive holes that we have to spend the entire half climbing out of.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started, most recent games first.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

So when we put in our first subs, we have led in eight games, trailed in seven games, and been tied in one. Not sure this narrative holds up.

 

[JwUKFan11]

I'm in favor of changing some aspects of the starting lineup, would like to have Reed or Rob in there. I think you could even do Reed over Thiero and have a balanced 5.

I do think it gets overblown a bit on this board, but what doesn't.

 

[phyrekat]

Momentum is a thing, yo.

 

[ThroughBlue]

we are better than every one of the teams you used except maybe tennessee. I think the narrative does hold weight.

 

[FiveStarCat]

To me it’s just a common sense thing. Play your best players the most amount of time you can, obviously building in rest and foul trouble allowances. I think the onus would be on proving not starting them is more beneficial as we have no evidence to suggest we’d start games worse with Reed and Rob out there.

 

[FiveStarCat]

The only thing I like about not starting both of them is we at least get to the 16 minute mark of every game with two of our best players with zero fouls guaranteed lol. That’s about the only silver lining I can see

 

[ukcatz12]

I think the onus would be on proving not starting them is more beneficial as we have no evidence to suggest we’d start games worse with Reed and Rob out there.

We also have no evidence that starting them would be beneficial. There have been times the subs have widened the deficit or given up the lead. We also didn’t start any better when Reed started and ran things.

 

[HagginHall1999]

Everyone keeps saying our starting five digs us into massive holes that we have to spend the entire half climbing out of.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started, most recent games first.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

So when we put in our first subs, we have led in eight games, trailed in seven games, and been tied in one. Not sure this narrative holds up.

Nice data...seems like a heavy lift. Kudos.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

Everyone keeps saying our starting five digs us into massive holes that we have to spend the entire half climbing out of.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started, most recent games first.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

So when we put in our first subs, we have led in eight games, trailed in seven games, and been tied in one. Not sure this narrative holds up.

"Everyone" doesn't keep saying it. The CHC keeps saying it. But they say lots of sh!t! None of it is true. They are scared to death of Klutch. So they just make up things to say. They love the big lie theory so they just keep repeating the same lies over and over.

 

[FiveStarCat]

We also have no evidence that starting them would be beneficial. There have been times the subs have widened the deficit or given up the lead. We also didn’t not start any better when Reed started and ran things.

I’m too lazy to pull it up but didn’t the Sam Veccinne (probably butchered that) tweet basically show we are significantly better with the big 3 on the floor? That may not prove they start the game better but I’m more than willing to take that chance given the stats and eye test showing who our best players are.

 

[FiveStarCat]

Actually just consider this my response lol:

Kentucky is winning despite John Calipari holding back Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, his two best players

Think where the No. 16 Wildcats would be if freshmen Sheppard and Dillingham were playing more

www.cbssports.com

 

[Blueaz]

Everyone keeps saying our starting five digs us into massive holes that we have to spend the entire half climbing out of.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started, most recent games first.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

So when we put in our first subs, we have led in eight games, trailed in seven games, and been tied in one. Not sure this narrative holds up.

iirc, two of those 7 trailed games...REED was a starter

 

[EliteBlue]

Everyone keeps saying our starting five digs us into massive holes that we have to spend the entire half climbing out of.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started, most recent games first.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

So when we put in our first subs, we have led in eight games, trailed in seven games, and been tied in one. Not sure this narrative holds up.

Useless stat unless you also look at the scores 5-10 min after the substitutions as well starting 0-0 from the point so substitution until the next sub taking one of Reeves, Dilly, Shep out.

Not saying anything either way…just that the scores showing we trialed in half at the first subs point as a standalone doesn’t support any “would it be better/worse” comparisons without also showing the score following subs.

Essentially what you’re trying to show is exactly what the +/- stat for different lineup combos shows and that stat is damning across the length of the season

 

[Cats192]

To me it’s just a common sense thing. Play your best players the most amount of time you can, obviously building in rest and foul trouble allowances. I think the onus would be on proving not starting them is more beneficial as we have no evidence to suggest we’d start games worse with Reed and Rob out there.

I said this in the other thread:

DJ didn't play against UNC-Wilmington. Reed got the start. We started slow. We lost the game.

DJ didn't play vs Tennessee. Reed started. We started slow. UT was up 13-3 with 16:38 to go in the 1st half. We lost.

So there is indeed evidence that starting Reed doesn't solve the slow start problem.

 

[ukcatz12]

Useless stat unless you also look at the scores 5-10 min after the substitutions as well starting 0-0 from the point so substitution until the next sub taking one of Reeves, Dilly, Shep out.

I don’t agree. The prevailing narrative here is that the starting 5 constantly digs us into holes. That doesn’t seem to be the case.

And one of the reasons you bring Reed sans Rob off the bench is because they’ll provide a spark. Then doing so when they come in doesn’t mean they would have outscored the other team if they started. That’s part of the strategy of bringing them off the bench, you allow your opponent to believe they have their feet under them and then toy bring in two guys who punch them in the mouth.

I’m not arguing one way or another, just providing some actual data. This board is way to opinion and vibe oriented and a lot of it isn’t supported by actual evidence.

 

[PhattyJ4UK]

Start dillingham he will be fouled out for crunch time.

 

[ck-2]

I bet if you could poll every opposing coach that the Cats have faced this season and asked them to make a starting lineup from KY’s roster like they were the KY coach, not one of them would exclude Sheppard as a starter. And I’d say several would include Dillingham.
But it’s not just about Sheppard it’s about having the right lineup.

 

[Slowwalker]

I’m in the camp that believes the starting lineup doesn’t matter as much as playing the guys who are playing best the most, or maybe even more important, playing the right guys at the right time.

 

[bucsrule8872]

We start slow. This is a Cal thing, not a lineup thing, IMHO. He has had this problem for a while, it didn’t just start this season with these players and this lineup or that lineup.

I think it’s an energy thing. Everyone is “up” for UK. They come out fired up and know they have to play their best against us. So we take everyone’s best shot to start a game. If we don’t match the energy, we get beat. When we weather the early storm, we win.

 

[Catman100]

We start slow. This is a Cal thing, not a lineup thing, IMHO. He has had this problem for a while, it didn’t just start this season with these players and this lineup or that lineup.

I think it’s an energy thing. Everyone is “up” for UK. They come out fired up and know they have to play their best against us. So we take everyone’s best shot to start a game. If we don’t match the energy, we get beat. When we weather the early storm, we win.

I agree, but doesn't it have to actually be a Cal's lineup thing?

 

[cats2010]

Everyone keeps saying our starting five digs us into massive holes that we have to spend the entire half climbing out of.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started, most recent games first.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

So when we put in our first subs, we have led in eight games, trailed in seven games, and been tied in one. Not sure this narrative holds up.

It’s not just the beginning of the game, it is also combined with the beginning of the 2nd half as well. Without looking up each game, I know off the top of my head, LSU outscored us by 7 points and Miss State pushed an 8 point lead to 13 and both were done very quickly.

 

[Catman100]

We are really debating that maybe/maybe not the best/most productive players should/should not start halves? My goodness.

What percentage of other programs have to debate that? .0005?

 

[etowncatfan]

Everyone keeps saying our starting five digs us into massive holes that we have to spend the entire half climbing out of.

Score when Rob and Reed came off the bench for games since SEC play started, most recent games first.

• Miss. St: Miss. St. lead 7-3 with DJ scoring our only points. The subs then managed to fall even further behind 14-3
• LSU: Tied 16-16
• Alabama: Alabama lead 7-3
• Auburn: UK lead 4-2
• Ole Miss: UK lead 6-5
• Gonzaga: Gonzaga led 7-4 before our first sub, DJ was still hurt and didn't start. Dillingham subbed in and Gonzaga extended their lead to 11-4.
• Vanderbilt: UK led 5-2 when Dillingham first subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Tennessee: Tennessee led 13-3 before our first sub, DJ didn't start.
• Florida: UK led 10-8 when Dillingham subbed in, DJ didn't start.
• Arkansas: Arkansas lead 7-3
• South Carolina: UK lead 4-0, Reed and Dillingham sub in and South Carolina goes on a 7-0 run.
• Georgia: Georgia lead 7-6
• Miss St.: UK lead 8-5
• Texas A&M: A&M lead 15-11
• Mizzou: UK lead 19-14
• Florida: UK lead 8-6

So when we put in our first subs, we have led in eight games, trailed in seven games, and been tied in one. Not sure this narrative holds up.

UK averages 89 points a game or roughly 11 points every 5 minutes. The first subbing usually comes in at around the 15 minute mark. UK only met the 11 point threshold twice in 16 games whether ahead or behind. Very telling.

 

[ukcatz12]

UK averages 89 points a game or roughly 11 points every 5 minutes. The first subbing usually comes in at around the 15 minute mark. UK only met the 11 point threshold twice in 16 games whether ahead or behind. Very telling.

And we also don't start any faster when Reed starts in place of DJ. This is a team wide issue, it's not because we're starting our current starting 5.

 

[etowncatfan]

And we also don't start any faster when Reed starts in place of DJ. This is a team wide issue, it's not because we're starting our current starting 5.

That’s why you need to start Reed Reeves and Dilly

 

[JwUKFan11]

Actually just consider this my response lol:

Kentucky is winning despite John Calipari holding back Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, his two best players

Think where the No. 16 Wildcats would be if freshmen Sheppard and Dillingham were playing more

www.cbssports.com

Well here's the thing, complaining about the starting lineup is valid but complaining about their minutes is very dumb. I think Reed is averaging 36 minutes over the last 5 and Rob would play much more but gets in foul trouble every game.

 

[CincinnatiWildcat]

Everyone who keeps replying that it also happened when Reed started seems to not realize we want Reed to start period. We also think we should start 3 guards as that is clearly our best lineups, dillingham is better but his inconsistency, lack of defense, and foul problems would make DJ starting as the 3rd guard ok with me.

Start our best players, our best players are 3 guards

 

[ThroughBlue]

I also think the issue was more that edwards was starting over reed not as much DJ.

DJ
Reed
Reeves
Mitchell / Thiero
7ft

 

[runt#69]

Having Shep & Dilly come off the bench much longer -- or during the NCAA Tournament -- could make Calipari look even more silly than when he brought Devin Booker off the bench and only used him 21.5 minutes per game in 2014-15.

damming stuff to the head ball coach right there.....

 

[ukcatz12]

could make Calipari look even more silly than when he brought Devin Booker off the bench and only used him 21.5 minutes per game in 2014-15.

Well Booker was the 7th most efficient player on that team, so coming off the bench sounds about right to me. Not to mention, the point of that platoon system was to have each lineup be more or less equally as affective.

 

[crestcat]

As Momma Gump says “Stupid is as stupid does “

 

[HenryMuto]

What about start of 2nd halves ? LSU monster run to cut a 15 point lead to 2.

Miss State pushed the lead from 8 to 13 in a blink of the eye.

People miss so much of what is actually happening with our starting 5.

Oh Kansas we started down 9-0 and we had a 10 point lead in the 2nd half when call benched Reed after playing for 30 seconds because he made a turnover boohoo our star player made a mistake so bench him and let the 10 point lead go bye bye before putting Reed back in a tie game oh wait we then got up 6 with 3:46 left and what Cal do ? He put in Dilly and who he take out ? Reed.......oh and then we lose ?

And people wonder why those of us in the know are talking about lineups.

Some of us "think" they know and others "actually" do know and I think we all know which side Cal falls on despite the clear and obvious evidence.

 

[HenryMuto]

I said this in the other thread:

DJ didn't play against UNC-Wilmington. Reed got the start. We started slow. We lost the game.

DJ didn't play vs Tennessee. Reed started. We started slow. UT was up 13-3 with 16:38 to go in the 1st half. We lost.

So there is indeed evidence that starting Reed doesn't solve the slow start problem.

Can you guess which of the "in the know" type this guy is

 

[HenryMuto]

DJ was 1/12 vs Kansas while Reed was 4/5 and 3/4 from 3. DJ played 25 minutes and Reed 16 minutes.

Yep keep starting the worse guy everyone good call.

 

[crestcat]

Can you guess which of the "in the know" type this guy is

You mean Brad?

 

[ukcatz12]

What about start of 2nd halves ? LSU monster run to cut a 15 point lead to 2.

Y'all really just go by vibes and not actual facts don't you. Here's what actually happened in the LSU game:

Starting 5 extends lead to 15 with an Edwards basket and Reeves 3. Then LSU cuts the lead to 8. In the time the starting 5 was in LSU wins 9-7.

Rob and Reed get subbed in and LSU proceeds to go on a 10-2 run to tie the game.

So who really allowed that "monster run"?