updated "odds" of players returning

[JonathanW]

Of course Reeves and Mitchell will be done (5th years). Reeves mid-range game has gotten so good, I think he will be a 2nd round pick & make a team. Mitchell best case is playing in Europe or G-league.
1% Dillingham (I would say 0%, but as a statistician I'm trained to think nothing has probability of 0% or 100%. And I actually think he may be a combo of Iverson / Chris Jackson. And is my pick for 2025 NBA ROTY)
25% Wagner (he could blame it on injury(s), but really it's probably more related to shooting, but whereas a month ago he was an early 2nd round pick, he's becoming closer to not getting drafted. So I could really see him return like the Harrison twins did, who were also top 5 recruits)
25% Bradshaw (each game his odds are going up from what was once 1%. He simply is not strong enough. Can he add muscle & bulk, and how will that change his game. Plus what is he really good at, I'm not sure. He could explode next year if he returned and be what everyone except me expected him to be this year, or he could struggle once again like Collins did. But he is becoming closer and closer to not draftable. And if drafted there is 0.1% chance he wouldn't spend next year in G-league)
30% Ivisic (The offensive skills looks like are there (shot, passing, court awareness, a few post moves). So he is at least a 2nd round pick now. If he shows he can grow and improve (defensively) the next 4-6 weeks, he could move into the lottery. But I think if he is projected as early as early 2nd round pick then he won't return. Also as an international player, I assume on a student VISA, if he can't earn NIL that may be a factor too.)
40% Edwards (Before Bama game I thought he was not draftable. But that game may put him back on the map. If he can play his way to early 2nd round I think he is gone (like Livingston). If he reverts to his first 26 games, then I don't think he can leave.)
40% Sheppard (I know some say if lottery pick he has to go or without a doubt will go. But the objective is not to get into the league, it is to STAY in the league AND maximize the value of that 2nd contract. Physically he's not ready yet. He's also not a "go-to" scorer yet, almost always the 3rd or 4th option on offense (can he get a bucket when you know it's up to him to do it). So even if he goes in lottery, I think he would spend rookie year either at end of bench or in G-league. And I think there is a good chance he just wants to be a kid for one more year, to enjoy the college experience, and him and his parents may even want him closer to getting a degree.)
40% Onyenso (word is his handlers wanted him to transfer last summer. Does him playing more this year change that, or will they again push him to transfer? He might go late 2nd round, is that good enough for him? )
75% Burks (I think he returns, and will be better than any FR forward we bring in. But if he expected to play a lot more this year and is disappointed then he could transfer.)
75% Hart (I also think he returns, that there is no way he thought he would play much this year. I think he just needs to get stronger, so could contribute next year. So won't transfer.)
90% Theiro (He doesn't have the jumpshot to make the NBA yet. But I think he could explode for us next year, and maybe be a 1st round pick then.)

Also, I don't think there is much chance that more than one 7-footer returns, so whichever one announces first he is returning probably affects the decision of the other two.
So, if I had to bet, I would go Theiro, Hart, Burks, Sheppard & a 7-footer. Then we need to go out and add a Knectcht/Reeves/Sears level 3pt shooter transfer.

 

[cal=8]

IMO Edwards is a lottery pic. He's got a prototypical NBA body and has a great stroke. I think he'll be an efficient scorer the rest of the way.

I also think Big Z will be a 1st round draft pic, maybe not lottery but he could be. He's too good offensively and has only played a few minutes of College Basketball. I bet he grows big leaps by end of season which we hope is April.

Fun post, glad you took the time to break down all the individual players.

 

[true blue1]

Of course Reeves and Mitchell will be done (5th years). Reeves mid-range game has gotten so good, I think he will be a 2nd round pick & make a team. Mitchell best case is playing in Europe or G-league.
1% Dillingham (I would say 0%, but as a statistician I'm trained to think nothing has probability of 0% or 100%. And I actually think he may be a combo of Iverson / Chris Jackson. And is my pick for 2025 NBA ROTY)
25% Wagner (he could blame it on injury(s), but really it's probably more related to shooting, but whereas a month ago he was an early 2nd round pick, he's becoming closer to not getting drafted. So I could really see him return like the Harrison twins did, who were also top 5 recruits)
25% Bradshaw (each game his odds are going up from what was once 1%. He simply is not strong enough. Can he add muscle & bulk, and how will that change his game. Plus what is he really good at, I'm not sure. He could explode next year if he returned and be what everyone except me expected him to be this year, or he could struggle once again like Collins did. But he is becoming closer and closer to not draftable. And if drafted there is 0.1% chance he wouldn't spend next year in G-league)
30% Ivisic (The offensive skills looks like are there (shot, passing, court awareness, a few post moves). So he is at least a 2nd round pick now. If he shows he can grow and improve (defensively) the next 4-6 weeks, he could move into the lottery. But I think if he is projected as early as early 2nd round pick then he won't return. Also as an international player, I assume on a student VISA, if he can't earn NIL that may be a factor too.)
40% Edwards (Before Bama game I thought he was not draftable. But that game may put him back on the map. If he can play his way to early 2nd round I think he is gone (like Livingston). If he reverts to his first 26 games, then I don't think he can leave.)
40% Sheppard (I know some say if lottery pick he has to go or without a doubt will go. But the objective is not to get into the league, it is to STAY in the league AND maximize the value of that 2nd contract. Physically he's not ready yet. He's also not a "go-to" scorer yet, almost always the 3rd or 4th option on offense (can he get a bucket when you know it's up to him to do it). So even if he goes in lottery, I think he would spend rookie year either at end of bench or in G-league. And I think there is a good chance he just wants to be a kid for one more year, to enjoy the college experience, and him and his parents may even want him closer to getting a degree.)
40% Onyenso (word is his handlers wanted him to transfer last summer. Does him playing more this year change that, or will they again push him to transfer? He might go late 2nd round, is that good enough for him? )
75% Burks (I think he returns, and will be better than any FR forward we bring in. But if he expected to play a lot more this year and is disappointed then he could transfer.)
75% Hart (I also think he returns, that there is no way he thought he would play much this year. I think he just needs to get stronger, so could contribute next year. So won't transfer.)
90% Theiro (He doesn't have the jumpshot to make the NBA yet. But I think he could explode for us next year, and maybe be a 1st round pick then.)

Also, I don't think there is much chance that more than one 7-footer returns, so whichever one announces first he is returning probably affects the decision of the other two.
So, if I had to bet, I would go Theiro, Hart, Burks, Sheppard & a 7-footer. Then we need to go out and add a Knectcht/Reeves/Sears level 3pt shooter transfer.

I think you’re spot on but so many factors behind the scenes won’t allow that.

 

[SemperFiCat]

I wish I believed that Thiero's chances of returning were at 90%. Seems way high to me.

 

[JonathanW]

IMO Edwards is a lottery pic. He's got a prototypical NBA body and has a great stroke. I think he'll be an efficient scorer the rest of the way.

I also think Big Z will be a 1st round draft pic, maybe not lottery but he could be. He's too good offensively and has only played a few minutes of College Basketball. I bet he grows big leaps by end of season which we hope is April.

Fun post, glad you took the time to break down all the individual players.

I think Edwards is soft physically, def not an NBA body. And not a high flier. His shot looks good, but is slow. But I hope you are right about how he finishes the season!

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I wish I believed that Thiero's chances of returning were at 90%. Seems way high to me.

This.

I also love the blue colored glasses our fanbase has with Sheppard returning.

 

[cal=8]

Theiro's Dad played for Cal at Memphis. I think he comes back unless he can get drafted. He's a great player and could go late in the 1st round. If that's the case he's gone but I don't see him transferring.

 

[jmw23712]

I’ll be blown away if Reed returns. I just can’t see a lotto pick ever passing up that opportunity. Especially with Cal always shoving low quality 2nd rounders out the door.

 

[DreadLox]

I’ll be blown away if Reed returns. I just can’t see a lotto pick ever passing up that opportunity. Especially with Cal always shoving low quality 2nd rounders out the door.

Who are you thinking was "shoved"?

 

[ukjenning44]

What’s the percentage on Cal not returning?
That’s all I’m concerned about.

 

[fatguy87]

I assume every player is leaving until otherwise officially stated

 

[JonathanW]

I’ll be blown away if Reed returns. I just can’t see a lotto pick ever passing up that opportunity. Especially with Cal always shoving low quality 2nd rounders out the door.

Cal will have little to no influence on Reeds decision. Jeff and Stacey will. Same for Wagner with his dad/parents. Both dads have gone thru (at different levels of success) experienced that, AND DJ and Reed aren’t trying to remove a family out of generational poverty. The only 2nd rounder I can think of Cal encouraged to leave was Ulis, which was the right thing to do as his stock was never going to get higher unless they figured out how for him to grow 3+”. He’s been surprised some left (Teague, Orton, Dakari, a few others).

 

[JonathanW]

I assume every player is leaving until otherwise officially stated

But that’s never come close to happening

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I'd put it at:

Dillingham: 0%
Hart: 10%
Edwards: 25%
Big Z: 25%
Sheppard: 50%
Bradshaw: 50%
Onyenso: 50%
Burks: 50%
Wagner: 50%
Thiero: 50%

 

[JonathanW]

I'd put it at:

Dillingham: 0%
Hart: 10%
Edwards: 25%
Big Z: 25%
Sheppard: 50%
Bradshaw: 50%
Onyenso: 50%
Burks: 50%
Wagner: 50%
Thiero: 50%

I have to ask. What do you think is the other 50% chance for Theiro (pro or transfer)?
I’ve seen no talk of him on draft boards yet, and I think his shot would prevent that now. As for transferring, he’s gone from 3* recruit - to playing just a little - to 5th or 6th in minutes playing over 1/2 the game. So why would he transfer? Or is that partly based on a belief Cal won’t be our coach and he leaves for that reason. Makes one wonder, since NIL, what % of players stay after a coaching change.

I think he could be a breakout star next year.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I can't even think about this yet with how much this team has given me migraines.

My quick thought is that Edwards is all but gone after that last performance. NBA teams just needed to see something from him and they got it (assuming he doesn't lay eggs the rest of the way).

I really just want Shep back first and foremost. After that, Thiero and Ugo. That will be a nice non-Freshman core to work with. Give me that, and I'm happy.

DJ is the one who I actually prefer to not be here next season. I just don't like what I'm seeing from him, all season. And I think if he did come back, he's just going to jack up more shots to prove his worth to the NBA. I'll take anyone else back though.

 

[Cats192]

I think Sheppard is the 2nd most likely to leave.

Rob is certainly gone.
Reed is almost certainly gone.

The whole argument about "he's not ready" doesn't hold up. The NBA drafts on potential. We have this discussion/debate every single year. NBA teams fully believe they can grow and develop players better than college. He's shown enough skill, some team will take him in the lotto.

I'll be shocked if he comes back.

 

[BoogieTowns]

I put them all at less than 10% and then will be excited if any return.

 

[Cats192]

I can't even think about this yet with how much this team has given me migraines.

My quick thought is that Edwards is all but gone after that last performance. NBA teams just needed to see something from him and they got it (assuming he doesn't lay eggs the rest of the way).

I really just want Shep back first and foremost. After that, Thiero and Ugo. That will be a nice non-Freshman core to work with. Give me that, and I'm happy.

DJ is the one who I actually prefer to not be here next season. I just don't like what I'm seeing from him, all season. And I think if he did come back, he's just going to jack up more shots to prove his worth to the NBA. I'll take anyone else back though.

He's a freshman with a freshman game making freshman mistakes.
It would be huge if we could get guys like that back and see them grow up on the court.

He has to put in serious work on his shot, but I think he will. You would think seeing the work Reeves put in this past off-season, DJ tries to follow that model.

I think a Sophomore DJ is a much better player

 

[Cats192]

Cal will have little to no influence on Reeds decision. Jeff and Stacey will. Same for Wagner with his dad/parents. Both dads have gone thru (at different levels of success) experienced that, AND DJ and Reed aren’t trying to remove a family out of generational poverty. The only 2nd rounder I can think of Cal encouraged to leave was Ulis, which was the right thing to do as his stock was never going to get higher unless they figured out how for him to grow 3+”. He’s been surprised some left (Teague, Orton, Dakari, a few others).

The problem is, guys come here expecting go one and done. That's why they choose here. Cal sells them on getting them to the NBA.

These 18/19 year old kids don't think like we do. They think they'll get to the league and prove everyone that doesn't draft them #1 wrong.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

He's a freshman with a freshman game making freshman mistakes.
It would be huge if we could get guys like that back and see them grow up on the court.

He has to put in serious work on his shot, but I think he will. You would think seeing the work Reeves put in this past off-season, DJ tries to follow that model.

I think a Sophomore DJ is a much better player

You very well could be right. But I'm fine not trying that experiment and knowing if it will or won't work. Especially if we have Shep back who has run the point and Fland coming in. He can't shoot, he doesn't play smart, he's kind of selfish. I'm just kind of find if we never know what he *could* become as a sophomore, and am fine to go with the team as is.

I personally don't love how DJs whole recruitment went down. Sorta feels to me that he came here mostly because of the relationship between his Dad and Cal, not necessarily because HE himself wanted to come here.

 

[SkyPrince1]

I would love to know what Hart's NIL take for this season is.
He may not be able to afford to leave.

 

[Cats192]

You very well could be right. But I'm fine not trying that experiment and knowing if it will or won't work. Especially if we have Shep back who has run the point and Fland coming in. He can't shoot, he doesn't play smart, he's kind of selfish. I'm just kind of find if we never know what he *could* become as a sophomore, and am fine to go with the team as is.

I personally don't love how DJs whole recruitment went down. Sorta feels to me that he came here mostly because of the relationship between his Dad and Cal, not necessarily because HE himself wanted to come here.

Without having any inside knowledge of the DJ-Cal relationship, I've always assumed they have a great relationship.

Cal was around DJ as a small kid. I fully believe Cal has been recruiting DJ from the first time they met. DJ grew up around Calipari, hearing from his dad how he's the best coach. There are pictures of him with Cal as a small child. He's attended some of Cal's camps.

I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe DJ only came here because his father likes Cal. I think Cal has built that relationship all of DJ's life. It's why I think we might actually get DJ back.

 

[docholiday51]

Hart and Burks will probably transfer, Edwards, Bradshaw, Dillingham and Wagner will declare. Thiero, Sheppard and one of Ugo or Z will return. We will once again start damn near from scratch.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Without having any inside knowledge of the DJ-Cal relationship, I've always assumed they have a great relationship.

Cal was around DJ as a small kid. I fully believe Cal has been recruiting DJ from the first time they met. DJ grew up around Calipari, hearing from his dad how he's the best coach. There are pictures of him with Cal as a small child. He's attended some of Cal's camps.

I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe DJ only came here because his father likes Cal. I think Cal has built that relationship all of DJ's life. It's why I think we might actually get DJ back.

I just found it odd that DJ was considered a lock to UK back in the 7th grade, and he waited alllll the way into his senior year fall signing period to commit to us. This also came during a time when some thought he was looking into the G-League, and other sports writers started to make CB picks for Louisville, where the Louisville staff cleared out a spot for his grandfather, which they wouldn't have bothered to do if they didn't think it would help.

It sure seems like DJ was pretty undecided up until the very end.. which, there's nothing wrong with.. I just wonder if maybe UK wasn't HIS top choice, but was more of his dads and possible a favor called in by Cal.

I also worry about a top5 recruit playing SO bad that they HAVE to come back (or transfer) and how that will affect their mindset going forward. If DJ returns, and now HAS to play well to get drafted as a sophomore.. is he going to turn into a chucker? It's just not something I want to find out, especially with Shep possibly coming back and being our PG.

 

[DreadLox]

In the Olde Days, Dillingham would be the only player to go before his eligibility was up. And that would be after his junior year. The team is full of future fantastic pros, but Reeves is the maraschino in the Manhattan right now.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

In the Olde Days, Dillingham would be the only player to go before his eligibility was up. And that would be after his junior year. The team is full of future fantastic pros, but Reeves is the maraschino in the Manhattan right now.

Just make sure they are Luxardo.. none of that bright red crap..

 

[Cats192]

I just found it odd that DJ was considered a lock to UK back in the 7th grade, and he waited alllll the way into his senior year fall signing period to commit to us. This also came during a time when some thought he was looking into the G-League, and other sports writers started to make CB picks for Louisville, where the Louisville staff cleared out a spot for his grandfather, which they wouldn't have bothered to do if they didn't think it would help.

It sure seems like DJ was pretty undecided up until the very end.. which, there's nothing wrong with.. I just wonder if maybe UK wasn't HIS top choice, but was more of his dads and possible a favor called in by Cal.

I also worry about a top5 recruit playing SO bad that they HAVE to come back (or transfer) and how that will affect their mindset going forward. If DJ returns, and now HAS to play well to get drafted as a sophomore.. is he going to turn into a chucker?

It certainly can happen, but I don't think it will.

He's already failed to live up to expectations. He HAS to play well to get drafted as a freshman. I don't think he's really a chucker now. He takes the occasional bad shot, but a lot of the 3's he takes are open. He was knocking down a decent percentage earlier in the yeaer. He's been dreadful of late.

I assume he's going to go to the combine and get feedback. I look at Reeves doing that last year, and how his game has transformed. I think freshman have a mindset that scoring gets you to the league, and that's hard to break. But I think going through the feedback process can be eye opening, and kids get a better understanding of what playing NBA basketball looks like.

And while James Harden and Steph Curry exist--most guys make it playing in a role on a team. I also think DJ takes the off-season to work on his speed/strength/physicality. I think as he matures physically, his ability to succeed going to the basket increases a great deal.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

It certainly can happen, but I don't think it will.

He's already failed to live up to expectations. He HAS to play well to get drafted as a freshman. I don't think he's really a chucker now. He takes the occasional bad shot, but a lot of the 3's he takes are open. He was knocking down a decent percentage earlier in the yeaer. He's been dreadful of late.

I assume he's going to go to the combine and get feedback. I look at Reeves doing that last year, and how his game has transformed. I think freshman have a mindset that scoring gets you to the league, and that's hard to break. But I think going through the feedback process can be eye opening, and kids get a better understanding of what playing NBA basketball looks like.

And while James Harden and Steph Curry exist--most guys make it playing in a role on a team. I also think DJ takes the off-season to work on his speed/strength/physicality. I think as he matures physically, his ability to succeed going to the basket increases a great deal.

I hope. That'd be the only way I want him back. Because he really doesn't make us better at the moment.

I for sure would love a renewed DJ as a sophomore, proving why he was a top5 recruit. And I think that's a very realistic possibility. I guess I'm just skeptical he will do this, and I'm also iff on how much desire I have to roll these dice..

Honestly, I think he's gone either way. I also wouldn't be shocked if he transferred.

 

[bballcat4]

Z will be 21 this summer. NBA considers that “old” when they are projecting a player’s future. (It’s the same reason less skilled, but younger players, will get drafted ahead of Reeves.)

I’ve never expected Z to return because of his age.

Outside of the top 8-10 draft picks, NBA is mainly projecting a player’s future contribution. Also, this is considered a very weak draft.

Wish all the players who are not ready to play at next level would return, but that’s not how the NBA works. I cannot fault players for getting paid huge amounts of $ regardless of their current contribution.

 

[katwest]

I have said this several times, I think Reed stays. Some have said word around London is that he's gone, well who is word, family, friends or just people in general. He is having fun and I'm sure his family is financially secure. You don't go after one year unless you've never had any money and or you need to help out family. I think Reed has several NIL deals, Rex is about the only Kentucky boy that played here that left early and some of that was because of his relationship with Sutton. There wasn't NIL money then and he stayed two years. Kentucky kids that play here are a little different than kids around the country that play here. It's an honor and a privilege to play at Kentucky in their eyes, especially being a legacy recruit from both sides.

 

[Cats192]

I hope. That'd be the only way I want him back. Because he really doesn't make us better at the moment.

I for sure would love a renewed DJ as a sophomore, proving why he was a top5 recruit. And I think that's a very realistic possibility. I guess I'm just skeptical he will do this, and I'm also iff on how much desire I have to roll these dice..

Honestly, I think he's gone either way. I also wouldn't be shocked if he transferred.

It'll rip my heart out if a top 5 recruit returns to college to leave Kentucky and go elsewhere.

I think/hope he only transfers if Cal isn't at UK next season. I think Cal can step into that admin role and tell DJ he's still got his back. But if Cal goes to Vandy, UCLA, Ohio State, wherever--it's going to be harder to convince DJ to stay here. DJ may follow him.

Honestly if DJ/Reed come back, Cal may have some renewed support. I think a lot of the disenchantment comes from knowing the entire team is going to leave one again.

 

[UKortho]

I hope. That'd be the only way I want him back. Because he really doesn't make us better at the moment.

I for sure would love a renewed DJ as a sophomore, proving why he was a top5 recruit. And I think that's a very realistic possibility. I guess I'm just skeptical he will do this, and I'm also iff on how much desire I have to roll these dice..

Honestly, I think he's gone either way. I also wouldn't be shocked if he transferred.

I think DJ comes back- really don’t think he is an nba caliber player due to his size and offensive limitations. Personally- want him to leave IF John is going to keep playing favorites.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

It'll rip my heart out if a top 5 recruit returns to college to leave Kentucky and go elsewhere.

I think/hope he only transfers if Cal isn't at UK next season. I think Cal can step into that admin role and tell DJ he's still got his back. But if Cal goes to Vandy, UCLA, Ohio State, wherever--it's going to be harder to convince DJ to stay here. DJ may follow him.

Honestly if DJ/Reed come back, Cal may have some renewed support. I think a lot of the disenchantment comes from knowing the entire team is going to leave one again.

That is true.. it would be a lot of back court experience that we dont often have. But I wonder what that means for Fland. Maaaaaybe I take a 2nd year DJ over a 1st year Fland? Or at least, I guess I'm ok with that experiment.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I think DJ comes back- really don’t think he is an nba caliber player due to his size and offensive limitations. Personally- want him to leave IF John is going to keep playing favorites.

And THAT is kind of my worry. With Shep playing very solid at the point, if DJ comes back, does Cal try to force him at point again?

It's kind of the other thing I dont like specifically with DJ: Cal is even MORE so trying to push him than other top10 recruits because of his lineage. And, again I know this is just me speculating... but IF there was a favor called in by Cal to land DJ, then he's going to have to do everything he can to hold up his end of the bargain for DJ. I just don't like Cal playing players because of their ranking or something like this, if the team isn't better for it.

 

[502 Wildcat]

The only player I have any confidence in a return is Theiro. He's a Cal legacy guy, is positioned to be our franchise player next season, and is likely headed towards being a lottery pick.

I really hope Burks returns, I am just expecting him to hit the portal after the tournament. It would be a shame because he's gonna be a really good player, but it's just the nature of the beast in 2024. I am expecting the worst but hoping for the best with him.

Everyone else is for sure gone, IMO, barring a crazy injury.

Some of us have some false hope on Sheppard, but neither his parents nor Cal will LET him come back if he's projected in the lottery. You just can't pass up that opportunity. NIL can compete with late 1st round and certainly 2nd round money, it cannot compete with lottery pick money.

Shep leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but let's get real. NBA is all about offense and shooting, defense is an afterthought. Teams score 110-120+ points almost every single game. Scouts are salivating watching Reed's passing and shooting ability.

 

[H-D cat]

Anyone who's been around this program more than a couple years under Cal is crazy to put the chances of ANY player returning at greater than 50%.

 

[drcats2013]

I think there’s a decent chance we only retain Hart from this team.

 

[track42]

And THAT is kind of my worry. With Shep playing very solid at the point, if DJ comes back, does Cal try to force him at point again?

It's kind of the other thing I dont like specifically with DJ: Cal is even MORE so trying to push him than other top10 recruits because of his lineage. And, again I know this is just me speculating... but IF there was a favor called in by Cal to land DJ, then he's going to have to do everything he can to hold up his end of the bargain for DJ. I just don't like Cal playing players because of their ranking or something like this, if the team isn't better for it.

Reed is gone if he's in the lottery.

 

[westerncat]

I hope Bradshaw leaves as I just don't see him getting drafted. I think he might transfer and I hope he does as he does not show me anything playing for UK . With the bigs we have coming in next year he is going to riding the bench more unless he put on a lot of mucle and learns how to shoot better.