updated "odds" of players returning

[LineSkiCat14]

The only player I have any confidence in a return is Theiro. He's a Cal legacy guy, is positioned to be our franchise player next season, and is likely headed towards being a lottery pick.

I really hope Burks returns, I am just expecting him to hit the portal after the tournament. It would be a shame because he's gonna be a really good player, but it's just the nature of the beast in 2024. I am expecting the worst but hoping for the best with him.

Everyone else is for sure gone, IMO, barring a crazy injury.

Some of us have some false hope on Sheppard, but neither his parents nor Cal will LET him come back if he's projected in the lottery. You just can't pass up that opportunity. NIL can compete with late 1st round and certainly 2nd round money, it cannot compete with lottery pick money.

Shep leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but let's get real. NBA is all about offense and shooting, defense is an afterthought. Teams score 110-120+ points almost every single game. Scouts are salivating watching Reed's passing and shooting ability.

Shep is hard to peg. In November: not on anyone's radar. In December he's a lottery pick. Then he falls back to earth as UK struggles and he doesn't look to score.

And now, playing point, hes showing the NBA he might actually be a better #1 than a #2.

But I'm not sure he will wind up being a lottery pick. His IQ and play making are off the charts, but that speed and athleticism will only become more of a hindrance at the next level. I still think he's a 20-30 range pick, a team that has it's core, but would love to find a backup PG (or SG) to come in, and that's kind of how I see Reed currently.

 

[warrior_SW]

Reeves/Mitchell 0%
Rob 0%
Wagner 5%
Bradshaw 5%
Edwards 5%
Reed 20%
Z 25%
Ugo 25%
Burks 50%
Thiero 50%

 

[Cats192]

Dillingham: 100% gone. Slam dunk 1st rounder.

Edwards: 80% gone. He's shown a lot of late. He's turned into one of our best defenders. He's making 3's at a good clip. He's 10/20 in his last 7 games. He is showing enough to be a 3 and D guys. He has the pedigree being a top high school recruit. I think he's a 1t rounder all said and done.

Z: 75% gone. He shows enough on the offensive end and shot blocking. He came to Kentucky from Croatia to get to the NBA. Fringe 1st rounder.

Bradshaw: 60% gone. Klutch gonna make him go. He NEEDS to come back. He's a 7 footer that made 3 three point shots all season. He's too skinny. He's not super athletic or coordinated. I know the league drafts on upside, but he'll be a 2nd rounder with a top 5 pedigree.

Ugonna: 60% gone via transfer portal. If his handlers shopped him last season, they'll shop him again this season. I'm sure they don't love the up and down usage. I honestly think he's gotten more minutes than I expected. But not sure that keeps his camp happy.

Reed: 55% gone. I think he's ready enough. I think he probably goes. He grew up a UK fan, and would make an absolute crap ton in NIL. A sophomore Reed is probably an All-American. Lotto pick.

DJ: 50%. 2nd rounder. If I was a betting man, he goes. Because they always go at Kentucky. But, he hasn't been who he wants to be. He went from a top 10 pick to a 2nd rounder. He needs to come back and improve.

Adou: 20% gone. He's a good defender. He's making 35% of 3's. I think a lot of where he succeeds is being bigger/stronger than the guys he's playing against--and that goes away in the NBA. But, there's a chance someone takes a shot on him.

Burks: 10% gone. Won't go pro. Could transfer. I think he returns.

Hart: 10% gone. I think he knew he was coming here to wait a few years. He's also behind an elite group of guards. I think if he leaves for playing time, he's not going to a blue blood place. And I don't think you choose Kentucky as a 3 star expecting to play right away. If he wanted to go to a place like IU or UCF, he would have done it to start.

 

[Blueaz]

Z will be 21 this summer. NBA considers that “old” when they are projecting a player’s future. (It’s the same reason less skilled, but younger players, will get drafted ahead of Reeves.)

I’ve never expected Z to return because of his age.

Outside of the top 8-10 draft picks, NBA is mainly projecting a player’s future contribution. Also, this is considered a very weak draft.

Wish all the players who are not ready to play at next level would return, but that’s not how the NBA works. I cannot fault players for getting paid huge amounts of $ regardless of their current contribution.

they ARE getting paid huge amounts

 

[MegaBlue05]

I just assume the odds for all are less than 1 percent to return and then will be pleasantly surprised at any returnees.

This method keeps me from getting my hopes up and then being disappointed when someone leaves.

 

[Bill Teaby]

I'll add one more, yes he is a player because he has played us.
Cal-100%

 

[JonathanW]

I think Sheppard is the 2nd most likely to leave.

Rob is certainly gone.
Reed is almost certainly gone.

The whole argument about "he's not ready" doesn't hold up. The NBA drafts on potential. We have this discussion/debate every single year. NBA teams fully believe they can grow and develop players better than college. He's shown enough skill, some team will take him in the lotto.

I'll be shocked if he comes back.

Did you not read my comments about Reed. It has nothing to do with him not being drafted because he's not ready. Of course he would be drafted. It is about maximizing his chances at staying in the league and maximizing the value of his 2nd contract. Players who leave too early start out in the G-league or at end of the bench, and if they make it to a 2nd contract they are just then starting to produce & thus get a smaller contract. But by waiting 1 more year "and being ready" they are in the rotation year 1, and by year 3 are closer to their ceiling and able to get a bigger 2nd contract.
Reed and Wagner are NOT players needing to cash out ASAP to get their families out of poverty, and so it would make the most sense for those 2 to be patient to maximize their future earnings.

 

[DreadLox]

Just make sure they are Luxardo.. none of that bright red crap..

I had to look them up. They're the only ones I've found that don't use sulfur dioxide as a preservative. SO2 tears up my insides something fierce. So, I'll look up Luxardo.

Thanks.

 

[JonathanW]

I hope Bradshaw leaves as I just don't see him getting drafted. I think he might transfer and I hope he does as he does not show me anything playing for UK . With the bigs we have coming in next year he is going to riding the bench more unless he put on a lot of mucle and learns how to shoot better.

And you probably thought that a year ago about Oscar, he need to leave because we got Bradshaw a top 3 recruit coming in. The sun always shines brighter on the other side, the unknown is always better than the known.
Yes Bradshaw needs to get bigger and stronger. I was the one last summer saying I did not think he would contribute much as a FR because he was too thin & weak, the same thing I said before Collins FR year. But that is what the offseason weight room does. Remember those chiseled pics of Onyenso late summer. Plus Bradshaw has shown some flashes (i.e. UNC) that he can be a good player.

 

[JonathanW]

Anyone who's been around this program more than a couple years under Cal is crazy to put the chances of ANY player returning at greater than 50%.

Data say otherwise.

 

[sk73]

Who are you thinking was "shoved"?

This. I want to see a few the names of those 2nd tier guys that were shoved to the draft.

 

[Rockford]

What’s the percentage on Cal not returning?
That’s all I’m concerned about.

33 million ($) to 1 on Cal returning. On this, I feel quite sure.

I put them all at less than 10% and then will be excited if any return.

Yeah, me too. I always say that they come here to leave and we act surprised and disappointed when they do.

But yet, every night I dream of Z and Reed returning…. and nobody can stop me.

 

[Cats192]

Did you not read my comments about Reed. It has nothing to do with him not being drafted because he's not ready. Of course he would be drafted. It is about maximizing his chances at staying in the league and maximizing the value of his 2nd contract. Players who leave too early start out in the G-league or at end of the bench, and if they make it to a 2nd contract they are just then starting to produce & thus get a smaller contract. But by waiting 1 more year "and being ready" they are in the rotation year 1, and by year 3 are closer to their ceiling and able to get a bigger 2nd contract.
Reed and Wagner are NOT players needing to cash out ASAP to get their families out of poverty, and so it would make the most sense for those 2 to be patient to maximize their future earnings.

I read it I understand the point you wish to communicate. I just don't agree with it.

I don't think lottery picks come back to the NBA to help improve their chances of sticking. I get why a 2nd round pick or even a fringe 1st rounder thinks like that. If you're good enough to get picked in the lotto, teams are probably going to try to help you succeed.

I don't think Kentucky prepares or improves guys better than the actual NBA. SGA wasn't even 1st team All-SEC. He's now in the MVP discussion.

I think if you're good enough to be a lottery pick, the NBA can help improve your deficiencies. If you're a 2nd rounder--maybe you benefit more from going against college kids.

But the NBA has the best resources in the world. Being surrounded by other professionals that know how you have to work is going to help more than anything Kentucky can do. Shai talks about how Lou Williams and Pat Beverly helped mentor him. That's invaluable.

 

[westerncat]

And you probably thought that a year ago about Oscar, he need to leave because we got Bradshaw a top 3 recruit coming in. The sun always shines brighter on the other side, the unknown is always better than the known.
Yes Bradshaw needs to get bigger and stronger. I was the one last summer saying I did not think he would contribute much as a FR because he was too thin & weak, the same thing I said before Collins FR year. But that is what the offseason weight room does. Remember those chiseled pics of Onyenso late summer. Plus Bradshaw has shown some flashes (i.e. UNC) that he can be a good player.

No actually i wanted Oscar to return. Bradshaw is just a tall player trying to play basketball.

 

[TFCats11]

The only player that has any percent chance to return is Thiero, and I’d give that 20% only because of his Dad’s relationship with Calipari. Everyone else, pro, graduate, or transfer 💯

 

[bballcat4]

they ARE getting paid huge amounts

Livingston (I think he was the last pick in the draft), but wherever he was drafted, he received a GUARANTEED $3.7 million dollar contract.

I promise you he wasn't making that kind of $ with NIL. Additionally, he's in the NBA, which is their ultimate goal. The icing on the cake for them going early is getting them closer to the 2nd contract. Average NBA players are getting $7-8 million a year.

UK fans think through our UK glasses. Do I want borderline NBA players to return to UK? Yes!!!! However, I understand why they leave regardless of their current production. We can blame Cal, agents, or whoever we want to blame. But, if only one team in the NBA tells a player they'll give him a guaranteed contract, then 99% of the players take it.

 

[KA4Prez]

This is Kentucky. The decision to stay or leave is dramatic with 80% of the roster every year.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I had to look them up. They're the only ones I've found that don't use sulfur dioxide as a preservative. SO2 tears up my insides something fierce. So, I'll look up Luxardo.

Thanks.

Oh yeah, if you're any fan of manhattans or general mixology, you should NEVER use that crap you'd get in an Applebees drink. It's worth the money to splurge on Luxardo cherries, or a similar brand (Woodford makes something similar).

They are so good you can put them on sundays or even just eat them out of the jar. Game changer for your drinks and I think you'll be hooked once you try them.

 

[Cats192]

This is Kentucky. The decision to stay or leave is dramatic with 80% of the roster every year.

Yeah. It's rare a guy just says "I'm coming back."

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I have to ask. What do you think is the other 50% chance for Theiro (pro or transfer)?
I’ve seen no talk of him on draft boards yet, and I think his shot would prevent that now. As for transferring, he’s gone from 3* recruit - to playing just a little - to 5th or 6th in minutes playing over 1/2 the game. So why would he transfer? Or is that partly based on a belief Cal won’t be our coach and he leaves for that reason. Makes one wonder, since NIL, what % of players stay after a coaching change.

I think he could be a breakout star next year.

He said he almost transferred after last season. If Kentucky lands Knox and brings back Bradshaw and a few other guys, I could see a scenario where Thiero leaves.

 

[ukfan1622]

I also think Big Z will be a 1st round draft pic, maybe not lottery but he could be. He's too good offensively and has only played a few minutes of College Basketball. I bet he grows big leaps by end of season which we hope is April.

Just imagine what Z could be after a couple years on a good strength program. I'm sure some NBA folks will imagine it and that could vault him into the late lottery.

 

[CatsFanIL]

Of course Reeves and Mitchell will be done (5th years). Reeves mid-range game has gotten so good, I think he will be a 2nd round pick & make a team. Mitchell best case is playing in Europe or G-league.
1% Dillingham (I would say 0%, but as a statistician I'm trained to think nothing has probability of 0% or 100%. And I actually think he may be a combo of Iverson / Chris Jackson. And is my pick for 2025 NBA ROTY)
25% Wagner (he could blame it on injury(s), but really it's probably more related to shooting, but whereas a month ago he was an early 2nd round pick, he's becoming closer to not getting drafted. So I could really see him return like the Harrison twins did, who were also top 5 recruits)
25% Bradshaw (each game his odds are going up from what was once 1%. He simply is not strong enough. Can he add muscle & bulk, and how will that change his game. Plus what is he really good at, I'm not sure. He could explode next year if he returned and be what everyone except me expected him to be this year, or he could struggle once again like Collins did. But he is becoming closer and closer to not draftable. And if drafted there is 0.1% chance he wouldn't spend next year in G-league)
30% Ivisic (The offensive skills looks like are there (shot, passing, court awareness, a few post moves). So he is at least a 2nd round pick now. If he shows he can grow and improve (defensively) the next 4-6 weeks, he could move into the lottery. But I think if he is projected as early as early 2nd round pick then he won't return. Also as an international player, I assume on a student VISA, if he can't earn NIL that may be a factor too.)
40% Edwards (Before Bama game I thought he was not draftable. But that game may put him back on the map. If he can play his way to early 2nd round I think he is gone (like Livingston). If he reverts to his first 26 games, then I don't think he can leave.)
40% Sheppard (I know some say if lottery pick he has to go or without a doubt will go. But the objective is not to get into the league, it is to STAY in the league AND maximize the value of that 2nd contract. Physically he's not ready yet. He's also not a "go-to" scorer yet, almost always the 3rd or 4th option on offense (can he get a bucket when you know it's up to him to do it). So even if he goes in lottery, I think he would spend rookie year either at end of bench or in G-league. And I think there is a good chance he just wants to be a kid for one more year, to enjoy the college experience, and him and his parents may even want him closer to getting a degree.)
40% Onyenso (word is his handlers wanted him to transfer last summer. Does him playing more this year change that, or will they again push him to transfer? He might go late 2nd round, is that good enough for him? )
75% Burks (I think he returns, and will be better than any FR forward we bring in. But if he expected to play a lot more this year and is disappointed then he could transfer.)
75% Hart (I also think he returns, that there is no way he thought he would play much this year. I think he just needs to get stronger, so could contribute next year. So won't transfer.)
90% Theiro (He doesn't have the jumpshot to make the NBA yet. But I think he could explode for us next year, and maybe be a 1st round pick then.)

Also, I don't think there is much chance that more than one 7-footer returns, so whichever one announces first he is returning probably affects the decision of the other two.
So, if I had to bet, I would go Theiro, Hart, Burks, Sheppard & a 7-footer. Then we need to go out and add a Knectcht/Reeves/Sears level 3pt shooter transfer.

Something to keep in mind with these kind of assumptions about needing a better shot, needing to get stronger, etc...

You're much, much, much more likely to improve all of those weaknesses when you go pro. No classes to attend, no study tables, no NCAA rules limiting interaction with coaches and trainers, etc.

When you go pro, you have professional facilities available at all times. You have personal trainers for shooting, ball-handling, etc. You have a personal strength coach. Your entire life, each day, is about development. You'll develop quicker when you go pro than you do at Kentucky. That's part of the reason you see guys like Booker, Shai, Herro, etc blow up once they leave.

 

[Blueaz]

Livingston (I think he was the last pick in the draft), but wherever he was drafted, he received a GUARANTEED $3.7 million dollar contract.

I promise you he wasn't making that kind of $ with NIL. Additionally, he's in the NBA, which is their ultimate goal. The icing on the cake for them going early is getting them closer to the 2nd contract. Average NBA players are getting $7-8 million a year.

UK fans think through our UK glasses. Do I want borderline NBA players to return to UK? Yes!!!! However, I understand why they leave regardless of their current production. We can blame Cal, agents, or whoever we want to blame. But, if only one team in the NBA tells a player they'll give him a guaranteed contract, then 99% of the players take it.

most last picks (even most 2nd rounders) don't get guaranteed money... yes, some

 

[know1]

I'm not being sarcastic when I say that I fully expect none of them to come back.

The most likely ones are Thiero, Burks and Hart, but I could see them going somewhere else where they will get some actual coaching and development and can earn playing time rather than being stuck behind guys who have been promised playing time.

 

[cal=8]

Just imagine what Z could be after a couple years on a good strength program. I'm sure some NBA folks will imagine it and that could vault him into the late lottery.

I completely agree.

 

[Wildcats1st]

Unless cal forces him out reed will be back. NIL was made for players like him.

 

[KA4Prez]

Reed Sheppard returns like Tyler Ulis. And he's tasked with carrying a roster of TEN new players.

Maybe Thiero and Burks return.

 

[CincyUKFan]

The only player I have any confidence in a return is Theiro. He's a Cal legacy guy, is positioned to be our franchise player next season, and is likely headed towards being a lottery pick.

I really hope Burks returns, I am just expecting him to hit the portal after the tournament. It would be a shame because he's gonna be a really good player, but it's just the nature of the beast in 2024. I am expecting the worst but hoping for the best with him.

Everyone else is for sure gone, IMO, barring a crazy injury.

Some of us have some false hope on Sheppard, but neither his parents nor Cal will LET him come back if he's projected in the lottery. You just can't pass up that opportunity. NIL can compete with late 1st round and certainly 2nd round money, it cannot compete with lottery pick money.

Shep leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but let's get real. NBA is all about offense and shooting, defense is an afterthought. Teams score 110-120+ points almost every single game. Scouts are salivating watching Reed's passing and shooting ability.

I agree with Thiero. Crazy high ceiling for him. But many things have to go right and the first thing is Cal giving him the minutes he needs. I know he's dealt with back issues and has been in foul trouble here and there, but when you look at the logjam of forwards and bigs, was it really necessary to bring in Mitchell? Adou and Tre played alongside each other for a bit, but as soon as bigs were available, Adou slid out of the starting lineup and his minutes went down drastically. If Cal does anything other than play Adou 30mpg next year, it will be yet another WTF. Also, Adou is going to have to work on the jump shot and floater. If he can't dunk or get close to the rim on certain drives, he needs another tool.

I disagree with the statement that NIL can compete with late first round money. It cannot. The last pick in the first round is guaranteed 6.3 million over 3 years, with a huge raise in the optional 4th year. Sheppard should take off whether he's a lottery pick or a late first round pick. This is especially true when 1) it's a weak draft, 2) it would be hard to replicate his current numbers, and 3) next years squad will not have Reeves and Dilly to open things up and looks to be a weaker team overall.

Even if he's a late pick, it's not a bad thing. The expectations would be lower and he'd be on a good team that just needs him to be solid off the bench. And I agree about the NBA not putting as much weight on defense, especially if a guy helps them score the ball.

 

[CincyUKFan]

I think DJ comes back- really don’t think he is an nba caliber player due to his size and offensive limitations. Personally- want him to leave IF John is going to keep playing favorites.

Of course he's going to keep playing favorites. DJ won't be back though, so it's all good.

 

[JonathanW]

I read it I understand the point you wish to communicate. I just don't agree with it.

I don't think lottery picks come back to the NBA to help improve their chances of sticking. I get why a 2nd round pick or even a fringe 1st rounder thinks like that. If you're good enough to get picked in the lotto, teams are probably going to try to help you succeed.

I don't think Kentucky prepares or improves guys better than the actual NBA. SGA wasn't even 1st team All-SEC. He's now in the MVP discussion.

I think if you're good enough to be a lottery pick, the NBA can help improve your deficiencies. If you're a 2nd rounder--maybe you benefit more from going against college kids.

But the NBA has the best resources in the world. Being surrounded by other professionals that know how you have to work is going to help more than anything Kentucky can do. Shai talks about how Lou Williams and Pat Beverly helped mentor him. That's invaluable.

I get what you are saying. And of course teams want their draft picks to succeed. But they also want to save money, so if their success is delayed a year, resulting in a substantially reduced 2nd contract, then that is a big win for teams. And they aren't going to play you to get you better, you better already be good enough to contribute, they are trying to WIN NOW while also keeping an eye on the future. And there are NBA lottery picks who do exactly that, go to the end of the bench or the G-league.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

I wouldn't be surprised if all we return is Theiro and Burks. If Burks doesn't transfer.

 

[CincyUKFan]

For those thinking Reed will return, here are the latest mocks:

CBS Sports - #5 (2/22)
Bleacher Report - #8 (2/24)
Yahoo Sports - #8 (2/23)
Yardbarker - #14 (2/11)
ESPN - #12 (2/20)
The Athletic - #11 (2/20)

And for those who think his measured height or pre-draft workout performances are going to significantly impact where he's drafted - they won't. They know his weaknesses. They know Kentucky measures with shoes. They love what he does on the court and what the analytics say.

And for those who say, "The mocks aren't caught up. They're behind." Nope, look at the dates. Wasserman, at Bleacher Report, put this out on the 24th and he's the best in the business.

And for those who say, "But these aren't accurate." Hate to tell you, but they are. You can look at mock drafts from these same websites from last February, and you'll see just how accurate they were. Do they get every player at every draft position correct? Of course not. Do they accurately predict which players will go in the top 15-20? Absolutely.

I'd love to have the dude back. But he'd be crazy to return.

 

[bucsrule8872]

All I know is, no Shep, no way we do anything next season. He’s a NPOY next year. He makes everybody better. We have a shot at a title, if he returns. If not, it’s another disappointing season.

 

[Cal's Kat]

Did you not read my comments about Reed. It has nothing to do with him not being drafted because he's not ready. Of course he would be drafted. It is about maximizing his chances at staying in the league and maximizing the value of his 2nd contract. Players who leave too early start out in the G-league or at end of the bench, and if they make it to a 2nd contract they are just then starting to produce & thus get a smaller contract. But by waiting 1 more year "and being ready" they are in the rotation year 1, and by year 3 are closer to their ceiling and able to get a bigger 2nd contract.
Reed and Wagner are NOT players needing to cash out ASAP to get their families out of poverty, and so it would make the most sense for those 2 to be patient to maximize their future earnings.

The second contract is important but more important is getting a 3rd contract while you're young enough to play through it without finishing the last couple of years on a down slide at the tail end of the contract.

If you're 19 when you enter draft and first contract is 3 years plus 4th year option = 23 years old
Second contract 4-5 years = 27/28 years old
Third contract another 4-5 years or more and you're still 32-33 years old

 

[Mike-McD]

Did you not read my comments about Reed. It has nothing to do with him not being drafted because he's not ready. Of course he would be drafted. It is about maximizing his chances at staying in the league and maximizing the value of his 2nd contract. Players who leave too early start out in the G-league or at end of the bench, and if they make it to a 2nd contract they are just then starting to produce & thus get a smaller contract. But by waiting 1 more year "and being ready" they are in the rotation year 1, and by year 3 are closer to their ceiling and able to get a bigger 2nd contract.
Reed and Wagner are NOT players needing to cash out ASAP to get their families out of poverty, and so it would make the most sense for those 2 to be patient to maximize their future earnings.

Reed wouldn't be in the G league. He's a lottery pick. Stop trying to diminish him, it won't work anyway. He's easily one of the best guards in the country.

 

[JonathanW]

Reed wouldn't be in the G league. He's a lottery pick. Stop trying to diminish him, it won't work anyway. He's easily one of the best guards in the country.

There have been lottery picks have spent a good bit of rookie season in G-league. And others at end of bench, 3 of the top 11 from last year have not played much this year.

 

[susan2361]

Of course Reeves and Mitchell will be done (5th years). Reeves mid-range game has gotten so good, I think he will be a 2nd round pick & make a team. Mitchell best case is playing in Europe or G-league.
1% Dillingham (I would say 0%, but as a statistician I'm trained to think nothing has probability of 0% or 100%. And I actually think he may be a combo of Iverson / Chris Jackson. And is my pick for 2025 NBA ROTY)
25% Wagner (he could blame it on injury(s), but really it's probably more related to shooting, but whereas a month ago he was an early 2nd round pick, he's becoming closer to not getting drafted. So I could really see him return like the Harrison twins did, who were also top 5 recruits)
25% Bradshaw (each game his odds are going up from what was once 1%. He simply is not strong enough. Can he add muscle & bulk, and how will that change his game. Plus what is he really good at, I'm not sure. He could explode next year if he returned and be what everyone except me expected him to be this year, or he could struggle once again like Collins did. But he is becoming closer and closer to not draftable. And if drafted there is 0.1% chance he wouldn't spend next year in G-league)
30% Ivisic (The offensive skills looks like are there (shot, passing, court awareness, a few post moves). So he is at least a 2nd round pick now. If he shows he can grow and improve (defensively) the next 4-6 weeks, he could move into the lottery. But I think if he is projected as early as early 2nd round pick then he won't return. Also as an international player, I assume on a student VISA, if he can't earn NIL that may be a factor too.)
40% Edwards (Before Bama game I thought he was not draftable. But that game may put him back on the map. If he can play his way to early 2nd round I think he is gone (like Livingston). If he reverts to his first 26 games, then I don't think he can leave.)
40% Sheppard (I know some say if lottery pick he has to go or without a doubt will go. But the objective is not to get into the league, it is to STAY in the league AND maximize the value of that 2nd contract. Physically he's not ready yet. He's also not a "go-to" scorer yet, almost always the 3rd or 4th option on offense (can he get a bucket when you know it's up to him to do it). So even if he goes in lottery, I think he would spend rookie year either at end of bench or in G-league. And I think there is a good chance he just wants to be a kid for one more year, to enjoy the college experience, and him and his parents may even want him closer to getting a degree.)
40% Onyenso (word is his handlers wanted him to transfer last summer. Does him playing more this year change that, or will they again push him to transfer? He might go late 2nd round, is that good enough for him? )
75% Burks (I think he returns, and will be better than any FR forward we bring in. But if he expected to play a lot more this year and is disappointed then he could transfer.)
75% Hart (I also think he returns, that there is no way he thought he would play much this year. I think he just needs to get stronger, so could contribute next year. So won't transfer.)
90% Theiro (He doesn't have the jumpshot to make the NBA yet. But I think he could explode for us next year, and maybe be a 1st round pick then.)

Also, I don't think there is much chance that more than one 7-footer returns, so whichever one announces first he is returning probably affects the decision of the other two.
So, if I had to bet, I would go Theiro, Hart, Burks, Sheppard & a 7-footer. Then we need to go out and add a Knectcht/Reeves/Sears level 3pt shooter transfer.

Thanks for the breakdown by player. Very interesting to read and think about.🙂💙

 

[megablue]

The only player that has any percent chance to return is Thiero, and I’d give that 20% only because of his Dad’s relationship with Calipari. Everyone else, pro, graduate, or transfer 💯

Adou Thiero a first round pick in new mock draft

Thieo arrived at Kentucky as 3-star prospect in 2022.

247sports.com

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

If Reed goes lottery, and Cal fails to make a Final Four again, it will be the 5th time in his career (2010, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024?) that he had MULTIPLE lottery picks and couldn't make a Final Four.

 

[CatPatrick13]

I think Edwards is soft physically, def not an NBA body. And not a high flier. His shot looks good, but is slow. But I hope you are right about how he finishes the season!

My impression as well.