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The Ukraine war. (Yes, we'll mind our manners)

Ukraine doesn't seem to be much disputing this. Seems to run counter to U's claims of advancements nearby.
 
Number 5 is noteworthy. 🧵

Damn. If you needed confirmation that the dreaded hyper-sonic missiles are more bark than bite, arresting the scientists who developed them is telling.

These were supposed to be an answer to the US ability to knock down conventional ICBM’s, which also re-enter at hypersonic speeds. but at far more predictable angles and trajectories.

Oh well . . . a few hundred billion of their money wasted.

If our Patriots can knock down hyper-sonics with Ukrainian crews trained for a few weeks, those “carrier-killer” missiles the Chinese have boasted of since 2007 sound far less threatening.

Got a friend in the Navy? Got a friend on a Carrier?

I do.

Two years ago, over beers and steaks I asked “what about those Chinese ‘Carrier Killers?”

And back through a sly smile. . . “Countermeasures—— Countermeasures!!”
 
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OK,

Somebody hit the Belogorad Oblast, capturing/liberating three towns with at least one tank and 3 other armored vehicles.

Russian movement?

Who knows?

The question for the Kremlin is simple: if you controlled a solid front 1,000 miles long and at least 50 miles into Ukrainian territory, how the f@ck did four Ukrainian armored vehicles get behind your force to drive toward Belgorod????

This would be the equivalent of someone holding all Southern Kentucky Counties with their defensive forces facing North, and their enemy driving on Knoxville, Tennessee?!?!?

 
These were supposed to be an answer to the US ability to knock down conventional ICBM’s, which also re-enter at hypersonic speeds. but at far more predictable angles and trajectories.
If you watched Spies Like Us you'd know not to be overly optimistic about our ability to shoot down a Russian ICMB.
 
“Принадлежал 27-й отдельной гвардейской мотострелковой бригаде РФ, был захвачен в сентябре 2022 г. бойцами 92-й отдельной механизированной бригады Украины в Куриловке Харьковской области в ходе небезызвестной "перегруппировки" ВС РФ.”

That’s some funny sh!t . . . I don’t care who the f@ckski your are!
 
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russian mercenary group Wagner, claimed Tuesday that his men are the strongest fighters but acknowledged the Ukrainian army has also put up a fierce fight, particularly in the eastern city of Bakhmut.

In an interview with pro-Moscow blogger Konstantin Dolgov, Prigozhin said the Ukrainians are “highly organized, highly trained and their intelligence is on the highest level, they can operate any military system with equal success, a Soviet or a NATO one."

“Now I can judge it according to my own experience, I know how different countries fight [..] today Wagner PMC is the best army in the world, and after it of course I have to say it should be Russian army in order to be politically correct, but I believe Ukrainians today are one of the strongest armies in the world,” Prigozhin said.
Over the weekend, Wagner claimed it had taken all the territories they had planned to and would leave the front line in eastern Ukraine on Thursday, leaving the fighting to the Russian Defense Ministry.

Prigozhin has criticized Russia's military leadership several times in the past, including earlier this month when he blamed Russian defense chiefs for "tens of thousands" of Wagner casualties because they didn't have enough ammunition.

In the interview, Prigozhin said more than 10,000 Wagner troops had died in the battle for Bakhmut. And he admitted that Russia hadn't achieved much success in its goal of “demilitarizing Ukraine.”

“In the beginning of the special military operation they (Ukrainians) had, say 500 tanks and now they have 5,000 tanks, and if only 20,000 people knew how to fight then, right now there are 400,000 people who know how to fight. So how did we demilitarize it (Ukraine)? It looks like we did the other way around, we militarized it,” he told Dolgov.
Attacks in Russia: Separately, when asked about cross-border incursions in Belgorod claimed by anti-Putin Russians this week, Prigozhin said: “Russian Volunteer Corps groups are shamelessly entering Belgorod region,” and Russian defense forces are “absolutely not ready to resist them in any shape or form.”


 
So we havent said a word since 1972 back in a time when china had no interest in doing business with the world. That isn't exactly refuting my argument. It's at best arguing semantics

moving-goalpost.gif


Your argument is facile and rests entirely on the silly presumption that geopolitical events happen in a vacuum, and that the only reason we support Ukraine and didn't support Tibet is "bribes."
  • Your argument also ignores how exactly, and with what, the Tibetans could've attempted to bribe U.S. officials. I doubt the Royal Tibetan Bank of Lhasa (I just made that up) had accounts in the Caymans. Furthermore, not exactly sure what they could've sent. Yak hair?
  • We can agree that the Bidens are POS, but lethal aid to Ukraine didn't start until Trump was in office. The conflict from 2014-2022 was much lower in intensity in any case. You throw around the figure of "billions in bribes," but again, that's orders of magnitude off the mark. I think Hunter's no-show Burisma board position amount to $600,000/year or something like that.
  • China would've traded more with the world but for the trade embargo. We had a total trade embargo with China until 1972.
  • We also happened to, you know, be fighting a war with China in Korea in the early 1950s, and the buildup to the Korean War was happening at the same time China was reasserting control over Tibet.
  • The UN trade embargo on China ended after the Korean War, but we kept ours until 1972.
  • The U.S. supported Tibetan guerrillas throughout the 1950s, but the uprising ultimately failed.
  • Something that's a little important happened in 1972-73, the opening to China that permanently split the Communist bloc. That was probably a little bit more important that trying to help what was for all intents and purposes a backwater region that was acknowledged as sovereign territory of China.
  • Even after that, the U.S. and other Western countries supported the Dalai Lama, and you may or may not have noticed that since the end of the Cold War, that support has become more pronounced and used as a way to occasionally needle China.
Anyway, all that's to say that geopolitics is complex and can't simply be boiled down to "BUT THEM BRIBES OMG!"
 
moving-goalpost.gif


Your argument is facile and rests entirely on the silly presumption that geopolitical events happen in a vacuum, and that the only reason we support Ukraine and didn't support Tibet is "bribes."
  • Your argument also ignores how exactly, and with what, the Tibetans could've attempted to bribe U.S. officials. I doubt the Royal Tibetan Bank of Lhasa (I just made that up) had accounts in the Caymans. Furthermore, not exactly sure what they could've sent. Yak hair?
  • We can agree that the Bidens are POS, but lethal aid to Ukraine didn't start until Trump was in office. The conflict from 2014-2022 was much lower in intensity in any case. You throw around the figure of "billions in bribes," but again, that's orders of magnitude off the mark. I think Hunter's no-show Burisma board position amount to $600,000/year or something like that.
  • China would've traded more with the world but for the trade embargo. We had a total trade embargo with China until 1972.
  • We also happened to, you know, be fighting a war with China in Korea in the early 1950s, and the buildup to the Korean War was happening at the same time China was reasserting control over Tibet.
  • The UN trade embargo on China ended after the Korean War, but we kept ours until 1972.
  • The U.S. supported Tibetan guerrillas throughout the 1950s, but the uprising ultimately failed.
  • Something that's a little important happened in 1972-73, the opening to China that permanently split the Communist bloc. That was probably a little bit more important that trying to help what was for all intents and purposes a backwater region that was acknowledged as sovereign territory of China.
  • Even after that, the U.S. and other Western countries supported the Dalai Lama, and you may or may not have noticed that since the end of the Cold War, that support has become more pronounced and used as a way to occasionally needle China.
Anyway, all that's to say that geopolitics is complex and can't simply be boiled down to "BUT THEM BRIBES OMG!"

Yes yes. Keep clicking on those stories of Ukrainian soldiers rescuing cats from trees while battling off the invasion
 
Prigozhin openly speculates on a Revolution in Russia, resulting from the elites “rubbing cream on their faces,” on the internet. These elites also “shook their arses in the sun,” while hundreds of thousands of family members of dead Russian soldiers who come home in zinc coffins are getting ready to rebel.

Hearing daily from this guy, alone, is worth half what we’ve sent to Ukraine!

And if I were a creamy-faced, wealthy Russian with a well-tanned arse, I’d be watching out for my sunny crack!!

 
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Based on this response, I accept your capitulation. Though to be fair, you should've been mercy-ruled a while ago.

Had it been a fight, entropy13 would have been restrained from inflicting more punishment 3 rounds, ago!

There certainly is no capitulation. Of course it all seems and feels like a win when looking through your propagandized window of facts.

Like I posted before, if the gang in here won't accept and agree to certain baseline undeniable facts, then there is no honest debate and it's not worth the time debating.

The only thing worthwhile is some entertainment value. I enjoy dropping by and seeing the lunacy you all read and believe. It's quite the window into the power of propaganda, social media, and virtue signaling.

Now, carry on with Ukraine soldiers rescuing cats from trees, 4 Ukrainian soldiers capturing a city, and the impending Russian revolution.
 
There certainly is no capitulation. Of course it all seems and feels like a win when looking through your propagandized window of facts.

Like I posted before, if the gang in here won't accept and agree to certain baseline undeniable facts, then there is no honest debate and it's not worth the time debating.

The only thing worthwhile is some entertainment value. I enjoy dropping by and seeing the lunacy you all read and believe. It's quite the window into the power of propaganda, social media, and virtue signaling.

Now, carry on with Ukraine soldiers rescuing cats from trees, 4 Ukrainian soldiers capturing a city, and the impending Russian revolution.
Honestly man, I just enjoy seeing Russian's losing. I don't get into the politics or anything like that.
 
Honestly man, I just enjoy seeing Russian's losing. I don't get into the politics or anything like that.

I'm more than cool with Russia losing everything. Unfortunately it just isn't happening. To make matters worse, we're lighting money on fire (that we don't have) and still won't get what we want.... whatever that might be
 
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Depends on how you define war and how you define win.

Is this a war? What does winning look like?
Fair questions.

As to a definition of War, I’ll fall back on Justice White’s definition of pornography: I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.

And this looks a lot like a war.

What does “winning,” look like?

A very tough question for decision makers in Kiev. Zelenski repeats he wants all of Crimea and the Far East of Ukraine back. But if his army can “win” these back, will this not create a future conflict with a majority of Russian speakers in those regions?

On the edges of this war, there are tangential “wins” occurring for the US and the West.

It’s nice to have a massive market to sell our equally massive glut of natural gas to. It’s just as nice when our main competitor for those sales invades a European country, suffers a pipeline explosion (by whomever blew it up), and generally takes a sh!t in the Country Club swimming pool of Western and Central Europe.

Europeans generally don’t like Americans. But they like us a lot more than the Fascist Russians who invaded a neighbor!

The frequent juxtaposition of Ukraine’s situation and Taiwan’s position has served us well. The Chinese have been impressed with the solidarity of the world’s wealthiest countries, and is given pause to consider how it’s growth-addicted and export-driven economy could survive trade embargoes by its biggest customers, ie, the same wealthy countries allied with the U.S.

Yes, much of the Southern Hemisphere is sitting on their hands regarding Ukraine. And those countries account for a tiny fraction of the trade China has with Japan, South Korea, the US and Europe.

Prior to Russia invading Ukraine, the Taiwan threat appeared to be entirely an issue for the U.S. and Japan (and China).

Now, almost daily, someone in Europe (the Brits, the Germans, the EU leaders, NATO leaders, the Poles, the Balkan leaders, and even Zelenski himself) brings up the topic of Taiwanese security, and it’s similarities to the Ukraine War.

And there are now German and other NATO military aircraft flying from Australia and other points in the Pacific signaling cooperation with the US on the issue of Taiwan.

Another “win,” is the expansion of NATO, the largest, lengthiest military alliance in world history, made all the more relevant by Russia’s invasion.

So, I see a “win” as (1) survival of Ukrainian Independence; (2) Ukraine’s recapture of those portions most suited for re-Union; (3) the continued growth of European dependence on American oil and gas (hence, retention of the dollar as the world’s largest trade and reserve currency), (4) the continued and accelerated growth of NATO in Europe, and the deepening of all our alliances as we shift focus to the threat of the Chicoms. (5) the continued flogging of Russia’s military, which will, (6) send Russia more quickly to where it was already headed: a demographic and economic implosion to a fate of geopolitical insignificance.

And as to point (6) the Russian implosion of the next 20 years will be a modest prelude to the same fate for China, in the next 50 years.

SLAVA UKRAINI!!!
 
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Honestly man, I just enjoy seeing Russian's losing. I don't get into the politics or anything like that.
A Russian loss would be a global catastrophe. Friggin loose nukes all over. Chechnya as a nuclear armed power isn’t appealing. Putin would be killed or put to pasture and the next guy isn’t gonna hold back the way Putin has. Kiev could have been leveled week 1. Putin has shown restraint where the people who will replace him will show none. It would likely be another Bolshevik type of revolt. Putin’s mindset is of a tzar not a lunatic like much of the Russian government is made up of. And no there is no western sympathetic leader waiting in the wings. You want medvedev? He don’t gaf. He’s ready to burn it all down. In that dudes mind if he becomes leader he’s going all in. Prizgohin? The guy is borderline personality with a twist of sociopathy. People need to think through this bc the alternatives are far worse. They will clean house at the top and put military leaders who will follow orders. Putin in order to use nukes adheres to consult with shoigu who is very much against the use of nukes. Then you have the alliance with Russia and Iran and a war about to break out between Israel and Iran. No we need to know where the leader of Russia stands and we know with Putin. A sudden change, Ukraine, Israel v Iran the shit is imminent people. Russia is too involved in holding Assad up thus limiting hezbollah.

This Israeli Iranian war is what no one is discussing and as it escalates the dynamic Russia plays. A lot of people have laughed at me for saying some serious shit is imminent but it is on multiple fronts. My advice. Start making things right with g_d. Laugh all you want but the most dangerous times in human history are upon us. War in Europe is a minor part of what’s going down.
 
A Russian loss would be a global catastrophe. Friggin loose nukes all over. Chechnya as a nuclear armed power isn’t appealing. Putin would be killed or put to pasture and the next guy isn’t gonna hold back the way Putin has. Kiev could have been leveled week 1. Putin has shown restraint where the people who will replace him will show none. It would likely be another Bolshevik type of revolt. Putin’s mindset is of a tzar not a lunatic like much of the Russian government is made up of. And no there is no western sympathetic leader waiting in the wings. You want medvedev? He don’t gaf. He’s ready to burn it all down. In that dudes mind if he becomes leader he’s going all in. Prizgohin? The guy is borderline personality with a twist of sociopathy. People need to think through this bc the alternatives are far worse. They will clean house at the top and put military leaders who will follow orders. Putin in order to use nukes adheres to consult with shoigu who is very much against the use of nukes. Then you have the alliance with Russia and Iran and a war about to break out between Israel and Iran. No we need to know where the leader of Russia stands and we know with Putin. A sudden change, Ukraine, Israel v Iran the shit is imminent people. Russia is too involved in holding Assad up thus limiting hezbollah.

This Israeli Iranian war is what no one is discussing and as it escalates the dynamic Russia plays. A lot of people have laughed at me for saying some serious shit is imminent but it is on multiple fronts. My advice. Start making things right with g_d. Laugh all you want but the most dangerous times in human history are upon us. War in Europe is a minor part of what’s going down.
No offense man, but you kinda come off like a paranoid schizophrenic/mentally ill person with some of your posts on this topic.
 
No offense man, but you kinda come off like a paranoid schizophrenic/mentally ill person with some of your posts on this topic.
Lol that’s a pretty strong statement. I don’t take offense though. I’m not afraid to put some out of the box shit out there. I used to have to care what people think now I don’t. This is a message forum and I’m gonna have fun with it. I’m going to tell you the truth. I have lived a wild unbelievable life and experienced more than people in 50 lifetimes. Those living in the mainstream are the psychopaths. The brainwashed. Look at the world going to shit run by all the “normal” people.
 
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Lol that’s a pretty strong statement. I don’t take offense though. I’m not afraid to put some out of the box shit out there. I used to have to care what people think now I don’t. This is a message forum and I’m gonna have fun with it. I’m going to tell you the truth. I have lived a wild unbelievable life and experienced more than people in 50 lifetimes. Those living in the mainstream are the psychopaths. The brainwashed. Look at the world going to shit run by all the “normal” people.
I respect it man and I agree about the mainstream. Just think you're being a little paranoid about all of this. Respect you and your posts nonetheless.
 
I respect it man and I agree about the mainstream. Just think you're being a little paranoid about all of this. Respect you and your posts nonetheless.
Maybe I am maybe I am. But remember atleast for me. Message forums are a place where you can take some risks with what you say. Push the PC envelope. I think I know the limits and any of us post one day may disagree another day with our own post. I mean I was a major proponent of bringing cal in for instance. I loved that guy until after 2015. Now I am adamant about wanting him gone. My friends and family know that. I’m here for the fb and bb first.

This is the only place I even know where to post about this issue on the war. I don’t do much social media. It’s not something I even discuss with friends or family. Some former colleagues but if you think my takes are crazy you should hear theirs. And a couple still work intel in Latin America. As a matter of fact I’ve made posts reflecting some of their views. I’d like to find a national forum tbh to engage with some different demographics. Anyone know a good one? I mean I retired early and need the educational discourse
 
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Fair questions.

As to a definition of War, I’ll fall back on Justice White’s definition of pornography: I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.

And this looks a lot like a war.

What does “winning,” look like?

A very tough question for decision makers in Kiev. Zelenski repeats he wants all of Crimea and the Far East of Ukraine back. But if his army can “win” these back, will this not create a future conflict with a majority of Russian speakers in those regions?

On the edges of this war, there are tangential “wins” occurring for the US and the West.

It’s nice to have a massive market to sell our equally massive glut of natural gas to. It’s just as nice when our main competitor for those sales invades a European country, suffers a pipeline explosion (by whomever blew it up), and generally takes a sh!t in the Country Club swimming pool of Western and Central Europe.

Europeans generally don’t like Americans. But they like us a lot more than the Fascist Russians who invaded a neighbor!

The frequent juxtaposition of Ukraine’s situation and Taiwan’s position has served us well. The Chinese have been impressed with the solidarity of the world’s wealthiest countries, and is given pause to consider how it’s growth-addicted and export-driven economy could survive trade embargoes by its biggest customers, ie, the same wealthy countries allied with the U.S.

Yes, much of the Southern Hemisphere is sitting on their hands regarding Ukraine. And those countries account for a tiny fraction of the trade China has with Japan, South Korea, the US and Europe.

Prior to Russia invading Ukraine, the Taiwan threat appeared to be entirely an issue for the U.S. and Japan (and China).

Now, almost daily, someone in Europe (the Brits, the Germans, the EU leaders, NATO leaders, the Poles, the Balkan leaders, and even Zelenski himself) brings up the topic of Taiwanese security, and it’s similarities to the Ukraine War.

And there are now German and other NATO military aircraft flying from Australia and other points in the Pacific signaling cooperation with the US on the issue of Taiwan.

Another “win,” is the expansion of NATO, the largest, lengthiest military alliance in world history, made all the more relevant by Russia’s invasion.

So, I see a “win” as (1) survival of Ukrainian Independence; (2) Ukraine’s recapture of those portions most suited for re-Union; (3) the continued growth of European dependence on American oil and gas (hence, retention of the dollar as the world’s largest trade and reserve currency), (4) the continued and accelerated growth of NATO in Europe, and the deepening of all our alliances as we shift focus to the threat of the Chicoms. (5) the continued flogging of Russia’s military, which will, (6) send Russia more quickly to where it was already headed: a demographic and economic implosion to a fate of geopolitical insignificance.

And as to point (6) the Russian implosion of the next 20 years will be a modest prelude to the same fate for China, in the next 50 years.

SLAVA UKRAINI!!!
Good read. As a lover of history, will you admit that most of those “wins” cannot yet be counted? What sometimes appears to be a “win” in the short term does not always tabulate to the win column with time.

China has learned a great deal from this war (I think “war” is a bit easier to define than pornography). Its perspective on Taiwan, however, has not changed. It is good to hear leaders speak out for Taiwan’s independence from China, but whether the Ukraine-Russo war is a win in that regard will need more time to cure.

By the way, was it Byron White or Potter Stewart who defined obscenity in that case?
 
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I'm more than cool with Russia losing everything. Unfortunately it just isn't happening. To make matters worse, we're lighting money on fire (that we don't have) and still won't get what we want.... whatever that might be
The truth emerges. Better watch out, Vlad. People who verbalize the obvious are not welcome here.
 
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I respect it man and I agree about the mainstream. Just think you're being a little paranoid about all of this. Respect you and your posts nonetheless.

The truth is somewhere in the middle, and both sides are equally propagandized. The west in thinking this is some noble cause for freedom and democracy, the Russkis with fight against Nazism. It's exceedingly easy to manipulate people, especially when you are just telling them what they want to hear from their a priori assumptions.

The real question is, "is it worth it, is it neccessarty, is the risk/reward there?" The true answer is very clearly no: that small sliver of land is not worth risking global stability. OUr way of life and values are not under threat, nor is European stability or even western hegemony. This is why the "best" pro-war argument is a strawman, drawing on inappropriate historical analogy in an attempt to make the case we must fight this war.

We can beat any threat Russia/China pose to us by a myriad of other means than just war.
 
that small sliver of land is not worth risking global stability. OUr way of life and values are not under threat, nor is European stability or even western hegemony. This is why the "best" pro-war argument is a strawman, drawing on inappropriate historical analogy in an attempt to make the case we must fight this war.
This is so totally wrong. That sliver of land is global stability. Lose it w/o Ukraine's agreement and the world's bad actors will be encouraged. I can't imagine why that isn't obvious.

No idea why you think Europe stability isn't at risk with their solid support of Ukraine's effort.
 
Good read. As a lover of history, will you admit that most of those “wins” cannot yet be counted? What sometimes appears to be a “win” in the short term does not always tabulate to the win column with time.
No.

These “wins” look “hardwired” into the future, in-as-much as the factors causing them are eerily similar to the factors that led to the dawn of the first “American Century.”

War and instability in Europe, along with war and the imperialist ambitions of an Asian power, closely followed by the threat of Communism, all led to the world leadership of the United States, economically and politically.

Now, in 20022/2023, we have War and uncertainty in Europe, with a new imperialistic threat by a Pacific power. And what are the effects? Pretty much what they were in the 1940’s. The “Free World,” has found safety coming beneath the security/financial umbrella provided by the US, even more completely than in the prior era. Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO are especially remarkable, given that we grew up with the concept of Soviet Power so threatening that it could “Finlandize” nations.

There are long-term affects that can differ, but I’m more than optimistic on the points I mentioned. Way above this in this thread, you said “time will tell,” with regard to our gas sales. Frankly, the fact that a putatively “Green” administration (Obama) got the ball rolling with the initial approvals of the liquification facilities in Texas and Louisiana, and another putatively “Green” administration passed legislation allowing more exploration of oil/gas tells me that we will continue to produce more, whilst using less, creating more exports.

Short of the Ukraine War, our development and massive export of energy the last 15 years is the most significant economic/geopolitical fact in the world in that timeframe, but is seldom mentioned by anyone. It doesn’t fit nicely into the Culture Wars, and doesn’t appeal to those of the right and left who have reached an apocalyptic consensus from different boogeymen.

The eerie fact that the Ukraine War has opened a massive market for our energy surplus, and reminded Europeans of the importance of their security and economic relationship with the US is an entirely unintended consequence by Vladimir Putin.

Similarly, Xi is justifiably disturbed that Pacific nations are turning toward the US for security and economic assistance. The fact that European powers are following our lead in the Pacific is historically significant.

Hitler and Hirohito did not intend to launch the first American Century. Neither Putin nor Xi intend to usher in the second, but they cannot escape the geo-political realities bringing it about.
 
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