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Stock Advice Thread

James and Austin, you two are troopers, still fighting it, good for you. Guess I got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning or just facing the reality. Kind of giddy making some danged profit off 4.5% and rising money market funds, reminds me of my old days of making double figure interest in the 1980s. Here’s my message to an investing friend:

Capitulation #1 by me today, believe I picked a good day.

Seeing that 4.5% return felt so good, I want more of it.

How can the economy and stock market improve much?
We have a broken President, an inept Congress, potential war over Taiwan, more and more money going to “Ukraine the Money Drain,” a bunch of talking head tv financial “experts” mainly wanting to keep viewers/subscribers despite knowing the market is unlikely to go anywhere.
Can the market overcome all the stupidity anyway? Not until 2024, imo.
 
James and Austin, you two are troopers, still fighting it, good for you. Guess I got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning or just facing the reality. Kind of giddy making some danged profit off 4.5% and rising money market funds, reminds me of my old days of making double figure interest in the 1980s. Here’s my message to an investing friend:

Capitulation #1 by me today, believe I picked a good day.

Seeing that 4.5% return felt so good, I want more of it.

How can the economy and stock market improve much?
We have a broken President, an inept Congress, potential war over Taiwan, more and more money going to “Ukraine the Money Drain,” a bunch of talking head tv financial “experts” mainly wanting to keep viewers/subscribers despite knowing the market is unlikely to go anywhere.
Can the market overcome all the stupidity anyway? Not until 2024, imo.
Politics aside and assuming we don't become a banana republic, risk is slowly coming out of this market after over a decade of free money. SVB is a great example. Some of the riskiest VC bets in the riskiest sector of technology had to have this type of contagion necessary for the Fed and the rest of the economy to see results. BTC is a bloodbath again as well. Exactly what's necessary and to hopefully keep mass layoffs to a minimum.
 
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Politics aside and assuming we don't become a banana republic, risk is slowly coming out of this market after over a decade of free money. SVB is a great example. Some of the riskiest VC bets in the riskiest sector of technology had to have this type of contagion necessary for the Fed and the rest of the economy to see results. BTC is a bloodbath again as well. Exactly what's necessary and to hopefully keep mass layoffs to a minimum.
Fine points, may take time, I’m drawing way back for now, no trust, would feel better if we even knew who the parties will run for President in 2024.
 
Fine points, may take time, I’m drawing way back for now, no trust, would feel better if we even knew who the parties will run for President in 2024.
Treasuries are a good place to hide. Shorter the better. I have an appetite for risk too. I'm doing both. I'm not worried about 2024.

The truth will set you free!
-Fox News
 
lz, what we're witnessing now has been in the making for the past 3 years. Although I'm no fan of Biden, what we're seeing now are the consequences of a previously low-interest rate environment playing catch-up with current market conditions.

I believe high-interest rates are here to stay for at least this CY.

SVB collapse: huge wake-up call. Remaining banks in sector should be okay.
 
lz, what we're witnessing now has been in the making for the past 3 years. Although I'm no fan of Biden, what we're seeing now are the consequences of a previously low-interest rate environment playing catch-up with current market conditions.

I believe high-interest rates are here to stay for at least this CY.

SVB collapse: huge wake-up call. Remaining banks in sector should be okay.
Great Irony
Many Americans (including me) have griped about the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Tougher for people to get loans, stock market way down, inflation up, etc.
Yet many of us are now happy because we can buy Money Market Funds at good rates and literally no risk for the first time in about 25+ years, something the average person has clamored for several years.
Conditions have been the opposite during that 25 year period, generally better stock returns and low interest rates, low inflation, and “we” want the Federal Reserve to get us back to that situation.
What DO we want? After living 75+ years, I dunno, everything I guess.🫤Wonder why people drink?
 
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Great Irony
Many Americans (including me) have griped about the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Tougher for people to get loans, stock market way down, inflation up, etc.
Yet many of us are now happy because we can buy Money Market Funds at good rates and literally no risk for the first time in about 25+ years, something the average person has clamored for several years.
Conditions have been the opposite during that 25 year period, generally better stock returns and low interest rates, low inflation, and “we” want the Federal Reserve to get us back to that situation.
What DO we want? After living 75+ years, I dunno, everything I guess.🫤Wonder why people drink?
The billionaire and political classes have been clamoring for higher rates for over a decade as well. You would often hear it referred to as "the normalization of monetary policy". They have no interest in taking on too much risk with their nest egg because you only have to get rich once.
 
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Treasuries are a good place to hide. Shorter the better. I have an appetite for risk too. I'm doing both. I'm not worried about 2024.

The truth will set you free!
-Fox News
Treasuries are a good place to hide. Shorter the better. I have an appetite for risk too. I'm doing both. I'm not worried about 2024.

The truth will set you free!
-Fox News
VMFXX is a MMF folks might look at.
Currently, 4.52% at constant $1.00 NAV.
Rate moves with market rates, of course.
Funds are always 24 hours away to get in-and-out for liquidity to fund other transactions.

Also, with interest high and soon-to-be higher, folks seeking periodic income with appreciation potential might screen for quality preferred stocks for a portion of their investment mix. 6%-8% dividend yield on many issues, along with 50%-80% price appreciation, if called and/ or when rates retreat. Due diligence required, as always, but screening for quality preferreds is possible on most discount brokerage websites.

GLTA !!!
 
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VMFXX is a MMF folks might look at.
Currently, 4.52% at constant $1.00 NAV.
Rate moves with market rates, of course.
Funds are always 24 hours away to get in-and-out for liquidity to fund other transactions.
GLTA !!!
Yep, just got in, didn’t realize it, but can also use Vanguard as my discount stock broker.
 
VMFXX is a MMF folks might look at.
Currently, 4.52% at constant $1.00 NAV.
Rate moves with market rates, of course.
Funds are always 24 hours away to get in-and-out for liquidity to fund other transactions.

Also, with interest high and soon-to-be higher, folks seeking periodic income with appreciation potential might screen for quality preferred stocks for a portion of their investment mix. 6%-8% dividend yield on many issues, along with 50%-80% price appreciation, if called and/ or when rates retreat. Due diligence required, as always, but screening for quality preferred is possible on most discount brokerage websites.

GLTA !!!
That fund also serves as the settlement fund for all of my Vanguard accounts or 7% cash right about now.
 
I've maintained a decent amount in VMFXX since 2010 after IRA rollover. 2020-mid 2022 were painful times for the fund.
Seems like the 1990s and up have been painful for Money Market Funds, I’m telling my friends who have clamored for more interest income to jump in, my wife and I had separate accounts back in the 1980s preceding my stock and mutual fund buying in the 1990s. Heck, big minimums to start an an account were required back then, not anymore, no excuse for non investors not to start a money market fund.
 
Cash diversification. Gold bullion is also a play but with potential storage issues. Although the SVB safe deposit boxes should be available by tomorrow one would hope.
 
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I don't think the the majority of Americans know how close we came to a run on regional mid sized banks. Kudos to the Fed and Treasury for stepping in.
 
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Sell, sell, sell. Unload it all. Hoist the gang plank and fly a black flag. We're headed south, boys! My new name is Ivan Cheblonski and my hair is bleach blonde. I would like to sit on fine leathern couches and sip cognac in the moonlight. No officer, I've never met the man? I have a student visa and my camel is very onry tonight I said in a dry Argentine accent.
 
Good read on banks which may develop similar issues as SVB. I own stock in ALLY and maintain a few CDs there. Hopefully not another National City Bank. (NCC). I lost my ass on that one.

 
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Regional banks are a mess but it's a rather orderly market for the most part. Not huge swings yet as far as percentages. Talking heads are insisting rate hikes are done but it's apparent to me that although the Fed got what they wanted, the CPI numbers come out tomorrow and the data lag could likely further confuse markets. Still very early this week and 2+ weeks until the quarter ends.

Perhaps the scariest part continues to be that for 15 years, institutional money continues to be risk free thanks to the govt.
 
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Regional banks are a mess but it's a rather orderly market for the most part. Not huge swings yet as far as percentages. Talking heads are insisting rate hikes are done but it's apparent to me that although the Fed got what they wanted, the CPI numbers come out tomorrow and the data lag could likely further confuse markets. Still very early this week and 2+ weeks until the quarter ends.

Perhaps the scariest part continues to be that for 15 years, institutional money continues to be risk free thanks to the govt.
Agree. Regional banks are a mess. I'm looking hard at Old National (ONB) and Fifth Third (FITB).

I'll be surprised if ALLY survives this mess. Their AOCI (Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income) currently stands at -4,059 million, or just over - 4 billion, one of the worst, or nearly double SVB.
 
Agree. Regional banks are a mess. I'm looking hard at Old National (ONB) and Fifth Third (FITB).

I'll be surprised if ALLY survives this mess. Their AOCI (Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income) currently stands at -4,059 million, or just over - 4 billion, one of the worst, or nearly double SVB.
Wonder what that really means on a balance sheet?
 
Any broker recommendations? I hold two Ameritrade accounts soon to become Schwab, would like one somewhere else, preferably simple, decent service, maybe with decent Research. I have a friend who uses Vanguard so he has access to their higher rate Money Mkt Fund. Schwab’s int rate paid is less.
 
foreign currency hedge gains and losses
cash flow hedge gains and losses
unrealized gains and losses on securities available for sale

Latest ALLY figures from Dec 31, 2022. Fed may have got on it earlier this year. Futures pricing look okay so far this morning.
Sounds like FX losses on foreign investments. The dollar rebounding last quarter didn't help.
 
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Any broker recommendations? I hold two Ameritrade accounts soon to become Schwab, would like one somewhere else, preferably simple, decent service, maybe with decent Research. I have a friend who uses Vanguard so he has access to their higher rate Money Mkt Fund. Schwab’s int rate paid is less.
I like Vanguard and it's definitely simple compared to TD Ameritrade and Fidelity.
 
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I have used Fidelity for over a decade. I certainly would never call it "not simple." I also have much smaller portfolios in Webull and Robinhood.
 
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