Nobody is cutting rates with Powell in command so I don't think a lot changes in the macro either way other than maybe a Ukraine victory. Oil will steadily go higher, now with a floor of $70 basically mandated by the feds. Speculation will get destroyed and markets will try to find a bottom if the end is truly near for the rate hikes.
So ... you are saying that it is growing. I'm gonna try to find a way to be happy with that.
Honestly, I believe we'll elect a split legislative branch, with R House and D Senate. Should bode well for next year. More interest rate increases coming, so expect further bond market carnage. Except for energy, I predict defense stocks and consumer defensive issues remain strong. Rest = meh, although regional banks show promise as takeover targets.
It's possible until employment craters. Hence the rake hikes.So ... you are saying that it is growing. I'm gonna try to find a way to be happy with that.
The future and futures. I had my best year ever before the pandemic and then was back down to what I made 10 years ago. Every big fish is predicting a bad year in '23.... and they don't even mention '22 being bad.
Share value is directly tied to market cycle which is a product of alignment of price across time. Long-term cycles composed of shorter-term cycles that are nested within the longer. At times these cycles are meshed and run together with large volatile swings in price while at other times they are in conflict or divergent and create a chaotic market condition with churning of price. None of this has anything to do with earnings nor profits nor anything fundamental which is the source of much confusion. It makes perfect sense to believe one should affect the other ... but in reality, there's no truth in it. Technical data will perfectly correlate to price action, but fundamental data will never correlate adequately to consistently explain/predict price movement.
I'm hearing a recession is almost a given for 2023 but some a predicting a soft landing.
I doubt that he would, and it wouldn't matter at all because I'm talking about apples and you oranges. Buffett looks at the markets from the perspective of a billionaire. As best as I can tell, Buffett's positions are volume positions and financed well enough to hold through the downturns using the futures to hedge their positions. He and other investors like him make their profits based on sheer volume over long hold times and the ability to use the loss side of his ledger to mitigate potential tax liabilities. You never hear about his losses. Buffett types are exceptions, the rest of us are the rule. Like I said earlier, there are many ways to engage the markets and Buffett does so as a billionaire unicorn. I can't approach the markets meaningfully, in the way that Buffett does, so I must have a different approach. At the end of the day, it's about Rate of Return for the money at risk. I would say Buffet's annual ROR is fairly low relative to "at-risk" funds invested. For guys like myself, using a low risk, high return approach made available by understanding how markets move in cycles makes my chance of success much higher in a much shorter period of time. Trying to invest like Buffett with a small account is a challenge, at best, unless you're a young person with the patience to make a long career of it. The answers are never necessarily easy, but they are interesting and rewarding ... so, what's not to like.
I looked at the historical returns of berskshire Hathaway compared to the S&P. Over a very long period (can’t remember what it was) it didn’t beat the S&P. I don’t think I went back to inception but looked at a several over several decades.
It doesn't surprise me ... Buffett very likely uses his market positions and holdings to mitigate tax liabilities. His approach to the markets are, for totally different reasons, fundamentally different than the rest of us. Once you have the kind of money he does, your goals many times are weighted more to preservation of capital rather than profit.
Interesting, and I don’t disagree with you. Do you invest in terms of say, two year cycles, much longer or shorter? Individual stocks, ETFs, both, or other securities, if you don’t mind sharing?
One other point I would make, movement of price relative to earnings announcement is also because of cycle alignment. EA's usually come with overnight price gaps, but the direction is always controlled by the cycle alignment and not the announcement itself. TSLA just recently beat estimates, but the stock was punished to the downside overnight, which would make no sense using classical thinking but looking at the cycle the night before the EA, revealed the cycle alignment happened to be bearish at the time sending the stock lower on the open ... leaving the pundits to "explain" the adverse reaction and giving us something to talk about. I heard a very smart trader once say, "trading the markets is like Nintendo for adults". I think he was right and obviously several years ago.
The method I use can look at cycles in any timeframe that can be charted. My longest time interval is one year and from there broken down by quarter, month, week, hour, minutes. Shorter cycles are always nested within the longer cycle and are subordinate to the longer cycle. Reading and knowing the directional bias of the longer cycle begins to tell you the coming behavior of the shorter cycle price movement and that is where the trade is set. This all happens in a very dynamic way and will make a technical indicator that is lagging in single time frames behave in a predictive manner when considered across time, in this way.
We’ve had a few posters here who do options, they probably got bored with those of us who are regulars here!
I could just as easily trade the stock too ... it doesn't matter. It just comes down to timing and direction of the upcoming move. Options just reduce risk (money in the trade) and increase leverage which will enhance profit. It's essentially all the same just a different way to make the play. What I find interesting in what you guys do is how you select the stocks you trade and the rationale behind your decision.
He also gets class A shares that pay dividends on stocks that normally don't pay dividends. One of the Railroads he bought he did this. He was getting like 4X the dividend for the same class B price or something like that. Basically he got a super sweet deal none of us would get.
www.wsj.com
Sold most of mine at $350 and $330 in the summer of 2021. Still have a small position that could go to zero and I won't lose a dime.
I had a few screw ups at that age, mine minuscule in comparison to his, at the police station in his undershorts only!🙃Bizarre election day news story #1,954,588.
Tyson Foods CFO charged after trespassing in woman's home, falling asleep in her bed, police say
Tyson Foods Chief Financial Officer John R. Tyson was arrested in Arkansas over the weekend over alleged public intoxication and trespassing.finance.yahoo.com
T-Mobile parent DTEGY reported a great quarter. Trading at $19.77 this morning. Will pay a 0.70 € dividend. Glad I got in last month.
www.marketwatch.com
