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Stock Advice Thread

dgtatu01

All-SEC
Sep 21, 2005
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Across The River
Let's start a Stock Advice thread where posters can drop stock tips for each other and dissect each others investments. I will start.


For all you value investors out there, there is a really good play in Gilead Sciences GILD. They are currently trading at only 7.2X their earnings. They have a dividend yield of 2.3%. The payout ration is tiny at 15% so the dividend is more than safe. Their Hepatitis C business is declining, but it will be a cash cow for years to come. They have new HIV drugs in the pipeline and a possible cure for non-alcoholic fatty liver coming as well.

This is not a buy and sell soon, this is something to add to your IRA and set on it for 10 years. Good luck and do your own research before buying!!!
 
I joined a stock club about 6 yrs. ago and I've learned a little bit about the market.

When my son was 4, I convinced my wife (after being in the stock club for 2 yrs.) to open up a joint account and invest his money (birthday money, etc.) in stocks since it was sitting in a savings account drawing ZERO. We had hoped to be able to pay college with it, but I don't think its going to be worth $ 200,000 by the time he starts college (Maybe it could be used for a down payment on a house).

Right now he is invested in the following:

ALNY (7 shares) Cost $95.41 Mkt Value $ 542.36 (468% gain); ATVI (33 shares) Cost $ 691.35 Mkt Value $ 1,460.58 (111% gain); PFE (5 Shares) Cost $153.90 Mkt Value $ 169.25 (9 % gain); SU (5 Shares) Cost 150.75 Mkt Value $129.55 ( 14% loss); DHR (3 Shares) Cost $ 255.21 Mkt Value $ 231.15 ( 9% loss)

Overall Return 88%. Not bad for an 8 yr. old. Probably going to sell DHR, so maybe I will look at GILD.

My wife has a 401(k) from Ford that she rolled over to Edward Jones and I convinced her to buy stocks. She owns: AAPL (42 sh), CELG (68 sh), TMO (41 sh) and AMZN (4 sh). 126% gain

Me: ALNY (223 sh) and AAPL (35 sh). 469% gain

Wish I could do more with stocks.
 
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Let's start a Stock Advice thread where posters can drop stock tips for each other and dissect each others investments. I will start.


For all you value investors out there, there is a really good play in Gilead Sciences GILD. They are currently trading at only 7.2X their earnings. They have a dividend yield of 2.3%. The payout ration is tiny at 15% so the dividend is more than safe. Their Hepatitis C business is declining, but it will be a cash cow for years to come. They have new HIV drugs in the pipeline and a possible cure for non-alcoholic fatty liver coming as well.

This is not a buy and sell soon, this is something to add to your IRA and set on it for 10 years. Good luck and do your own research before buying!!!
I have some cash sitting in my IRA. I am going to give it a shot and buy 10 shares.
 
I can speak for the tech/biotech part of the world.

Currently, the best short-term public market bet I see is Fitbit. Fitbit -> Apple is a likely outcome in the near future. Fitbit peaked at 8B, their current valuation is 3.5B (closer to actual value). However, purchase premium for Fitbit is likely to be 2x due to bidding war between tech players.

Also buy as much Illumina stock as you can. I predict their stock price will likely increase by 50% in the next two years.

If you want to talk private markets, that's a different story. I don't suggest any of us make bets in the private markets, though there is certainly HUGE upside potential.
 
Wish I could do more with stocks.

Are you taking advantage of your annual Roths? If you have a quality Ed Jones advisor he should be telling you to do so, and you should do so. You haven't stated it, so I will assume that you do not work for an employer with a 401k sponsored plan? Are you self employed using SEP IRA accounts through Ed Jones? Hopefully your "stock club" is not your primary alternative to your investments through your Ed Jones advisor. Is it correct that your wife no longer works for Ford?
 
I can speak for the tech/biotech part of the world.

Currently, the best short-term public market bet I see is Fitbit. Fitbit -> Apple is a likely outcome in the near future. Fitbit peaked at 8B, their current valuation is 3.5B (closer to actual value). However, purchase premium for Fitbit is likely to be 2x due to bidding war between tech players.

Also buy as much Illumina stock as you can. I predict their stock price will likely increase by 50% in the next two years.

If you want to talk private markets, that's a different story. I don't suggest any of us make bets in the private markets, though there is certainly HUGE upside potential.
I like a little less risk than a company like Fitbit. Lots of volatility and if no one gobbles them.up they could disappear. I would rather invest in Garmin GRMN. They have GPS business for airplanes and ocean liners along with their wearable fitness devices. They make a better product imo, and their stock pays a dividend. I bough some in the high $20's and sold at $45 or so, so I am not a big proponent of Garmin, but if you like Fitbit, you owe it to yourself to research Garmin.

If you like Amazon you should also look into Alibaba as well.
 
USO or similar oil funds seem like a good opp. The downside is only at about 20-25% whereas the upside in the long term is possibly 300-400% or more.
 
Apple is the type of stock you want to say you own in about 10 years. It's going to stay between $100-150 over the next few years until they introduce a new game changer. Good solid dividend also.
 
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Investment Properties. Max out your 401k and let it work for you. Outside of that, invest in properties.

Closing on my 3rd this Friday. Triplex in Crescent Hill/Clifton and changing it to a duplex. Expected rents 2200 with a payment of 1400. Money out of pocket? hopefully $0
 
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Investment Properties. Max out your 401k and let it work for you. Outside of that, invest in properties.

Closing on my 3rd this Friday. Triplex in Crescent Hill/Clifton and changing it to a duplex. Expected rents 2200 with a payment of 1400. Money out of pocket? hopefully $0

What are the long term historical rates of return on residential rental real estate verse the stock market?
 
Let's start a Stock Advice thread where posters can drop stock tips for each other and dissect each others investments. I will start.


For all you value investors out there, there is a really good play in Gilead Sciences GILD. They are currently trading at only 7.2X their earnings. They have a dividend yield of 2.3%. The payout ration is tiny at 15% so the dividend is more than safe. Their Hepatitis C business is declining, but it will be a cash cow for years to come. They have new HIV drugs in the pipeline and a possible cure for non-alcoholic fatty liver coming as well.

This is not a buy and sell soon, this is something to add to your IRA and set on it for 10 years. Good luck and do your own research before buying!!!
Were you being serious? Price has dropped about 25% this year.

I don't buy single stocks, so not sure why I'm even here. My portfolio consists of VTSMX, VFINX, VBMFX and VGTSX.
 
Were you being serious? Price has dropped about 25% this year.

I don't buy single stocks, so not sure why I'm even here. My portfolio consists of VTSMX, VFINX, VBMFX and VGTSX.
Yes, quite serious. I like to buy stocks when they are cheap and sell them when they are expensive. When a really good company goes through a price drop is a great time to buy it.
 
What are the long term historical rates of return on residential rental real estate verse the stock market?
I've heard of getting 13%-15% returns from rental. But that means you're dealing with the headache of being a landlord. With some exception, you can sell a mutual fund (or single stock, for the dumbasses) at any time. You can't sell a renter.

Of course, people claim you can get that rate of return (long term) in the market, also. I don't buy it.
 
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Are you taking advantage of your annual Roths? If you have a quality Ed Jones advisor he should be telling you to do so, and you should do so. You haven't stated it, so I will assume that you do not work for an employer with a 401k sponsored plan? Are you self employed using SEP IRA accounts through Ed Jones? Hopefully your "stock club" is not your primary alternative to your investments through your Ed Jones advisor. Is it correct that your wife no longer works for Ford?

Yes, my wife and I have a 401(k) thru our employer. The accounts with EJ were rolled over from previous employment. We are not contributing to those EJ accounts. You are correct, my wife no longer works for Ford. She took the buyout several yrs ago and now works for Jeff. Co. Public Schools.

The stock club is a secondary investment. In our 6 yrs of existance, my share of the club is about $7k. If we (when we) dissolve the club, I will reinvest in the market. Our club owns about 60 different stocks. There are 13 people in our club.
 
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Yes, my wife and I have a 401(k) thru our employer. The accounts with EJ were rolled over from previous employment. We are not contributing to those EJ accounts. You are correct, my wife no longer works for Ford. She took the buyout several yrs ago and now works for Jeff. Co. Public Schools.

The stock club is a secondary investment. In our 6 yrs of existance, my share of the club is about $7k. If we (when we) dissolve the club, I will reinvest in the market. Our club owns about 60 different stocks. There are 13 people in our club.
Is your stock club associated with the NAIC? Clubs are cool. I was a member back in the 90s.

PFE: I've been in Pfizer since the Upjohn (UPJ) days, or 1993. Monsanto spin-off way back when seemed like a mistake. Now, it looks like a winner.
 
Yes, my wife and I have a 401(k) thru our employer. The accounts with EJ were rolled over from previous employment. We are not contributing to those EJ accounts. You are correct, my wife no longer works for Ford. She took the buyout several yrs ago and now works for Jeff. Co. Public Schools.

The stock club is a secondary investment. In our 6 yrs of existance, my share of the club is about $7k. If we (when we) dissolve the club, I will reinvest in the market. Our club owns about 60 different stocks. There are 13 people in our club.

So is that a "no" on the Roths then? A simple mistake people make, particularly when they are young, is missing out on their opportunity to invest in Roth IRAs. Both you and your wife are allowed a maximum amount you may contribute to Roths, using money that has already been taxed, and when you retire the money earned on those Roth investments cannot be taxed again. Additionally, if at some interim point you decide that you need to withdraw a portion of the initial Roth investment, you can do so without penalty, because you have already paid tax on that portion. Naturally, doing so would negatively affect the long-term return on that particular Roth, but it is always nice to know a source of emergency money is available if need be.

Another mistake people make with 401ks is "maxing" them out without doing Roths. Eventually you will have to pay taxes on your 401k investments. The best investment available to you is to take advantage of ALL employer matching 401k, as the matching is free money, instant return. After that, it is just investment to the point of "maxing out". Any advisor worth his salt will tell you the Roth becomes a better investment after the matching portion of the 401k. For one thing, you are not limited by your employer's program for investment choices. You can invest it in whatever you select. And again, it is not taxed ever again.

Not trying to downplay your current work in progress, but you stated that you wished you could do more. Have no idea what age group you fall in. Convincing young people with decent jobs and good investment opportunities that they can easily become millionaires (and they need to) is something that I enjoy doing. Don't ever let anybody tell you it cannot be done. A young man now in his early 20s really needs to have a plan to retire with probably over 2 million dollars in order to provide a decent retirement. Have his first home completely paid for before he is 40. Make his goal to live every single bit of his 50s and beyond completely debt free. These are simple objectives and very doable for almost anybody who has prepared themselves for some form of career / work.
 
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Has anyone been involved in mREIT stocks? The area is a bit volatile but pays high dividend yield, 12-15%, however little stock price movement. I got into NYMT a few years ago and just kept reinvesting the dividends that have done well. The mREIT market took a hit last year, so I was able to pick up cheaper shares. I've over doubled my shares in 3 years by just reinvesting.

They've come back the first part of this year. This is just a small part of my portfolio overall, but something I like to play around with. It's heavily tied to interest rate movements, which makes me nervous since rates are so low. However it keeps paying good dividends, so I'm hanging in for now.
 
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Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature. Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature. Evidence: The cycling of disease epidemics;the wax and wane of caribou populations; sun spot cycles; the rise and fall of the Nile. So, what about the stock market? The universe of numbers that represents the global economy. Millions of hands at work, billions of minds. A vast network, screaming with life. An organism. A natural organism. My hypothesis: Within the stock market, there is a pattern as well... Right in front of me... hiding behind the numbers. Always has been.
 
For your serious money, buy mutual funds. Don't try to time the market. Okay to have some fun money to play on individual stocks, maybe weed stocks or whatever.
 
Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature. Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature. Evidence: The cycling of disease epidemics;the wax and wane of caribou populations; sun spot cycles; the rise and fall of the Nile. So, what about the stock market? The universe of numbers that represents the global economy. Millions of hands at work, billions of minds. A vast network, screaming with life. An organism. A natural organism. My hypothesis: Within the stock market, there is a pattern as well... Right in front of me... hiding behind the numbers. Always has been.

Wonderful. And possibly that fits or has fit into some form of usefulness for you. Maybe so, maybe not so. Couldn't tell through all the tranquilized drivel. For some, the market is a proven resource that requires sound decision making and patience. It has demonstrated the ability to provide common working people with the ability to achieve high quality retirements without the need to DEPEND on pensions, social security or external sources of belated income such as inheritance, or idiotic ideas such as "my home is part of my retirement." (e.g. reverse mortgage). Yet young people must suffer through their lives, surrounded by numerous persons who have failed miserably to prepare for the own retirements, who will destructively cloud their thinking with attempts to tell them that these things cannot be done, simply because they failed to do it. It comes in all forms, from friends, from family, co-workers, ambiguous posts about the investment market on internet message boards, etc., etc., etc,
 
more like 10 in the bush. most people don't realize that stocks are like lottery tickets
True in many respects. Mitigation is achieved by investing in the corporation, brand and management. Think long-term, but prepare yourself for bumps and potholes along the journey. View investing like running a marathon spanning decades. Dividend reinvestment represents a key component of the strategy.
 
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True in many respects. Mitigation is achieved by investing in the corporation, brand and management. Think long-term, but prepare yourself for bumps and potholes along the journey. View investing like running a marathon spanning decades. Dividend reinvestment represents a key component of the strategy.

austin, i need to learn more from you. how do you do choose the right companies to invest in? is it based on dividends over time + size of the corp (as a proxy for how many years they can stay in business)?
 
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If a 25 year old began investing in Roth IRAs in the year 2000 at the max amount each year he would have made a capital investment of 40 thousand dollars over the course of the first decade.

The Roth IRA he purchased in the year 2000 would have been a $2000 dollar Roth IRA, as that was the maximum amount. Same for 2001. In the year 2002, the max investment went up to $3000.

So let's just look at where the money would be now for the Roth IRAs from those first 4 years (2000 - 2003), assuming an annual rate of return of at least 6% (mine have performed much better, but 6% is a very safe figure to demonstrate with):

$2000 @ 6% x 16 yrs = $5080
$2000 @ 6% x 15 yrs = $4793
$3000 @ 6% x 14 yrs = $6783
$3000 @ 6% x 13 yrs = $6398 Total = $23,054

Now let's have a look at the money from the Roth IRAs from the next 4 years (2004 - 2007). Again, assuming what was contributed was the max amount allowed for each of those years:

$3000 @ 6% x 12 yrs = $6035
$4000 @ 6% x 11 yrs = $7593
$4000 @ 6% x 10 yrs = $7163
$4000 @ 6% x 9 yrs = $6758 Total = $27,549

So there you have it. The first decade of his Roth program and we only studied $25k out of $40k invested (the max went up to $5000 per year in 2008). The first 8 years worth of the money has already doubled - demonstrated using the paltry 6% figure very conservative figure. Keep in mind he is continuing to invest. He is only 41 years old now. If he can wait until his mid 60s, these monies alone should double maybe twice more. Again, using the paltry 6% - that is $200k boys and girls. There will be another 10 year window of Roth money that will not have had as long to grow, but will have begun with larger amounts. And another 10 year window toward the end and hopefully the max contributions with increase soon.

It should be expected over the course of a man's working life that Roth investments will easily perform better than 6%. Your advisor should be smart about helping your choose your investment. But if a man gets started early enough, dedicates himself to it, the Roth program ALONE can become a resource to a 1/2 million dollar retirement savings. A man and a wife together, both are entitled to an annual contribution. It IS their million dollar UNTAXABLE ticket. Don't let ANYBODY tell you that it is not possible. Additionally, the max contribution amount increases after age 50.
 
If a 25 year old began investing in Roth IRAs in the year 2000 at the max amount each year he would have made a capital investment of 40 thousand dollars over the course of the first decade.

The Roth IRA he purchased in the year 2000 would have been a $2000 dollar Roth IRA, as that was the maximum amount. Same for 2001. In the year 2002, the max investment went up to $3000.

So let's just look at where the money would be now for the Roth IRAs from those first 4 years (2000 - 2003), assuming an annual rate of return of at least 6% (mine have performed much better, but 6% is a very safe figure to demonstrate with):

$2000 @ 6% x 16 yrs = $5080
$2000 @ 6% x 15 yrs = $4793
$3000 @ 6% x 14 yrs = $6783
$3000 @ 6% x 13 yrs = $6398 Total = $23,054

Now let's have a look at the money from the Roth IRAs from the next 4 years (2004 - 2007). Again, assuming what was contributed was the max amount allowed for each of those years:

$3000 @ 6% x 12 yrs = $6035
$4000 @ 6% x 11 yrs = $7593
$4000 @ 6% x 10 yrs = $7163
$4000 @ 6% x 9 yrs = $6758 Total = $27,549

So there you have it. The first decade of his Roth program and we only studied $25k out of $40k invested (the max went up to $5000 per year in 2008). The first 8 years worth of the money has already doubled - demonstrated using the paltry 6% figure very conservative figure. Keep in mind he is continuing to invest. He is only 41 years old now. If he can wait until his mid 60s, these monies alone should double maybe twice more. Again, using the paltry 6% - that is $200k boys and girls. There will be another 10 year window of Roth money that will not have had as long to grow, but will have begun with larger amounts. And another 10 year window toward the end and hopefully the max contributions with increase soon.

It should be expected over the course of a man's working life that Roth investments will easily perform better than 6%. Your advisor should be smart about helping your choose your investment. But if a man gets started early enough, dedicates himself to it, the Roth program ALONE can become a resource to a 1/2 million dollar retirement savings. A man and a wife together, both are entitled to an annual contribution. It IS their million dollar UNTAXABLE ticket. Don't let ANYBODY tell you that it is not possible. Additionally, the max contribution amount increases after age 50.

fantastic advice that can't be emphasized enough.
 
austin, i need to learn more from you. how do you do choose the right companies to invest in? is it based on dividends over time + size of the corp (as a proxy for how many years they can stay in business)?
You have to study them and make sure they fit what you want to do.
 
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If a 25 year old began investing in Roth IRAs in the year 2000 at the max amount each year he would have made a capital investment of 40 thousand dollars over the course of the first decade.

The Roth IRA he purchased in the year 2000 would have been a $2000 dollar Roth IRA, as that was the maximum amount. Same for 2001. In the year 2002, the max investment went up to $3000.

So let's just look at where the money would be now for the Roth IRAs from those first 4 years (2000 - 2003), assuming an annual rate of return of at least 6% (mine have performed much better, but 6% is a very safe figure to demonstrate with):

$2000 @ 6% x 16 yrs = $5080
$2000 @ 6% x 15 yrs = $4793
$3000 @ 6% x 14 yrs = $6783
$3000 @ 6% x 13 yrs = $6398 Total = $23,054

Now let's have a look at the money from the Roth IRAs from the next 4 years (2004 - 2007). Again, assuming what was contributed was the max amount allowed for each of those years:

$3000 @ 6% x 12 yrs = $6035
$4000 @ 6% x 11 yrs = $7593
$4000 @ 6% x 10 yrs = $7163
$4000 @ 6% x 9 yrs = $6758 Total = $27,549

So there you have it. The first decade of his Roth program and we only studied $25k out of $40k invested (the max went up to $5000 per year in 2008). The first 8 years worth of the money has already doubled - demonstrated using the paltry 6% figure very conservative figure. Keep in mind he is continuing to invest. He is only 41 years old now. If he can wait until his mid 60s, these monies alone should double maybe twice more. Again, using the paltry 6% - that is $200k boys and girls. There will be another 10 year window of Roth money that will not have had as long to grow, but will have begun with larger amounts. And another 10 year window toward the end and hopefully the max contributions with increase soon.

It should be expected over the course of a man's working life that Roth investments will easily perform better than 6%. Your advisor should be smart about helping your choose your investment. But if a man gets started early enough, dedicates himself to it, the Roth program ALONE can become a resource to a 1/2 million dollar retirement savings. A man and a wife together, both are entitled to an annual contribution. It IS their million dollar UNTAXABLE ticket. Don't let ANYBODY tell you that it is not possible. Additionally, the max contribution amount increases after age 50.

The max IRA contribution is currently $5500.

I am personally terrified at the prospect of only having $200k in retirement.
 
I am personally terrified at the prospect of only having $200k in retirement.

What was illustrated for you was to show that the 25 year old would eventually be able to generate 200k in retirement savings from the first 8 years worth of his Roth savings alone, beginning in the year 2000 when max Roth contributions were a piddly two grand/yr. That was based on a very conservative, way low, 6% return each year. It did not consider the Roth contributions he would continue to make from his mid 30s - late 50s, nor did it consider the important returns on that 25 year period worth of Roth investments. Nor did it consider any Roth investments his spouse may make, any 401k contributions they may have made, SEP IRAs, etc., etc., . . . A young man, particularly when he is in his 30s, MUST make every effort possible to wisely save, invest, prepare to live a good portion of his working life DEBT FREE, to include having a home completely paid for a 15-20 year period prior to when he retires.

Yes, you should be terrified. As should anybody. And for anybody currently approaching the age of around 40 who doesn't have a retirement savings (post tax) approaching that amount you mentioned they need to get their act together soon. And that, is not exactly a conservative estimate.

Pensions are history. Social security is junk. Quality retirement means something very simple. A man with a sum of money large enough that he can live off it's interest and not see that sum of money GO DOWN. Every single person under the age of 30 with the ability to read these words has the ability to make that happen. He just has to be smart, always live below his means, and NEVER allow anybody to tell him he cannot do it for himself.
 
The Roth will eventually start getting taxed IMO. Maybe at a lower rate but the Libs will get their greedy little hands on it at some point.
 
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