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POLITICAL THREAD

How will they rule ??!

  • YES - Qualified

    Votes: 41 82.0%
  • NO - Disqualified

    Votes: 9 18.0%

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .
This is likely your answer, as most into the numbers of it all were waiting for this particular poll to drop tonight. Obviously this doesn't mean Harris is winning IA but if it's anywhere close to this, she wins the race. If it's that close in Iowa or she's actually leading, that makes things significantly tougher for Trump. But tonight, disregard it if you want, say it's cheating, I don't care. We'll all know on Tuesday evening what's what.

 
This is likely your answer, as most into the numbers of it all were waiting for this particular poll to drop tonight. Obviously this doesn't mean Harris is winning IA but if it's anywhere close to this, she wins the race. If it's that close in Iowa or she's actually leading, that makes things significantly tougher for Trump. But tonight, disregard it if you want, say it's cheating, I don't care. We'll all know on Tuesday evening what's what.

Selezer is being mocked all over twitter for being paid to drop such an absurd poll.
 
This is likely your answer, as most into the numbers of it all were waiting for this particular poll to drop tonight. Obviously this doesn't mean Harris is winning IA but if it's anywhere close to this, she wins the race. If it's that close in Iowa or she's actually leading, that makes things significantly tougher for Trump. But tonight, disregard it if you want, say it's cheating, I don't care. We'll all know on Tuesday evening what's what.

There is absolutely no way that can be the reason for the poly market move.

That poll is the most ridiculous poll ever put out. The fact you thought it was a good idea to post it tells me just how f’n stupid you really are.
 
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There is absolutely no way that can be the reason for the poly market move.

That poll is the most ridiculous poll ever put out. The fact you thought it was a good idea to post it tell me how f’n stupid you really are.
First, you're likely older than me and you're in attack mode for some reason. Be better than quoting someone and saying they're "f'n stupid". Try having a conversation instead of calling someone stupid on the internet.

Second, Selzer is highly respected and she's been off with her numbers once, in 2008 I believe. As I said, it doesn't mean Harris is going to win IA but even if Trump wins the state by a small margin, that doesn't bode well for him in other rust belt states. It's one poll but it's an important one. I'm sorry if you had dreams of Trump winning 45 states or getting 400 EV's. That was never going to happen.
 
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Polls out of Iowa are sparse, and have been this entire cycle. Not saying the poll is crap, but it IS a huge outlier. The same pollster had Trump up 18 a few months ago (a 21 point swing in a state Trump has won twice), and Emerson has Trump plus 10 so who knows.

I will be mildly surprised if Harris wins (based mostly on early voting in PA,GA,AZ, and NV) but I certainly won't be shocked.

These last polls before election day are clearly what is driving the betting markets. Anyone that didn't expect this hasn't been paying attention. Suppression of election day voting in the swing states will be crucial for Kamala and frankly, I think all of this is part of that effort. Just my two cents.
 
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Marist and CNN put out some ridiculous polls in the last few days showing Harris up 3%-6% in the three key rust belt states to show fake momentum. Rich Baris ripped those polls apart and noted that Marist is one of the least accurate polls every election cycle.
As has been noted by others here, this allows them to say “margin of error” when the ballot dumps happen.

We need a huge cushion.
 
First, you're likely older than me and you're in attack mode for some reason. Be better than quoting someone and saying they're "f'n stupid". Try having a conversation instead of calling someone stupid on the internet.

Second, Selzer is highly respected and she's been off with her numbers once, in 2008 I believe. As I said, it doesn't mean Harris is going to win IA but even if Trump wins the state by a small margin, that doesn't bode well for him in other rust belt states. It's one poll but it's an important one. I'm sorry if you had dreams of Trump winning 45 states or getting 400 EV's. That was never going to happen.
First off, you’re a f’n idiot. Doesn’t matter how old I am.
 
These refs have been terrible.

They aint gonna give uk a shot. Every time brock scrambles =hold. Not the same for nico.

Kinda like potus election.
 
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Election Wizard (which always gets posted here) is a right wing account that loves Trump. So yes, they will have him winning almost every swing state no matter what. Check that account on election night if Harris wins. I'd wager that account begins tweeting that it was stolen from Donald.

Here's my guess on things: Trump has somewhat imploded in the final week as millions have begun voting. Women will break for Harris and I don't see young men racing to the polls to vote for Trump just because he appeared on a few podcasts and talked about bitcoin. Abortion is still an important driver and Vance's obsession with single women and Trump saying things like he'll protect women "whether they like it or not" are wrong moves. Buddying up with Elon and RFK Jr. probably didn't help either lol.
 
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nightwish -

I've never heard of "election wizard" so I can't speak to that, but Baris' breakdowns of the RCP pollsters' crosstabs don't indicate the female voter gap that was anticipated. In fact, it's at about half of what Kamala was hoping for. Now, they're POLLS, and polls don't win elections. Based on the internals though, and the early vote in PA, Democrats are going to have to election day vote in record numbers to grab PA. Not saying they won't, just saying that is what it will take. And PA is where 270 gets "gotten", for BOTH candidates.
 
I will never pass judgement based on such brief videos, but very interested in what happened here. Surely doesn’t look good for the police though.

Yeah well if they were doing the Gator chomp then it is justified.

If something were reversed in that there would be some outrage. Kamala would be blaming Trump.
 
Election Wizard (which always gets posted here) is a right wing account that loves Trump. So yes, they will have him winning almost every swing state no matter what. Check that account on election night if Harris wins. I'd wager that account begins tweeting that it was stolen from Donald.

Here's my guess on things: Trump has somewhat imploded in the final week as millions have begun voting. Women will break for Harris and I don't see young men racing to the polls to vote for Trump just because he appeared on a few podcasts and talked about bitcoin. Abortion is still an important driver and Vance's obsession with single women and Trump saying things like he'll protect women "whether they like it or not" are wrong moves. Buddying up with Elon and RFK Jr. probably didn't help either lol.
LOL. Just quit dude. You obviously aren't "middle of the road"... You are a democrat partisan. Kamala is imploding by all accounts.



Baris final poll has Trump at 312. Quit just being a douchebag.
 
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