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POLITICAL THREAD

How will they rule ??!

  • YES - Qualified

    Votes: 41 82.0%
  • NO - Disqualified

    Votes: 9 18.0%

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .
The other day some guy on Reddit said he put $10,000 on Harris. I think it'd pay $28,000 or something but I can't tell you how insane that is in a race this close. Granted, I've believed for months Trump will lose and still believe that but putting that much coin on this election? No.

I was most confident during the '08 and '12 elections. 2016 got me as it got most people. And I was very confident in 2020. 2024? I'm slightly confident and really believe women are going to be the decidi

LOL]
 
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I'll likely be happy Tues night. As far as sense of humor goes, I love The Big Lebowski, Curb, Norm, Gilbert...stuff like that. The memes here are rarely funny, the jokes aren't any better, and being called "stupid" or "idiot" by angry men in their 50s or 60s isn't really a laugh-riot either. Political humor usually isn't that funny. Just being honest.

Now what is funny is Larry on Curb not wanting to take meetings or be around people so he begins wearing a MAGA cap around Los Angeles. Everyone left him alone lol. That's creativity. Not a meme or calling someone stupid online.
It’s true. When Trump wins, I’ll move on. The president doesn’t dictate my happiness. I know the MAGA crowd needs Trump to function and be happy, it’s so weird. It’ll suck having to see his awful make up face everyday but whatever. The sad part is they all actually believe grocery prices will magically change and houses will become more affordable just because Trump says so.
 
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IU being 9-0 doesn't suck to me. Who else in the B!G would you want to be 9-0?
You obviously didn't grow up in Louisville and have relatives, co-workers, etc. that were rabid IU fans. UK naturally hates IU even though they haven't been relevant in decades. We're hoping they stay that way. Same reason we despise UL.
 
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It’s true. When Trump wins, I’ll move on. The president doesn’t dictate my happiness. I know the MAGA crowd needs Trump to function and be happy, it’s so weird. It’ll suck having to see his awful make up face everyday but whatever. The sad part is they all actually believe grocery prices will magically change and houses will become more affordable just because Trump says so.
If Trump wins you keep your freedoms and actually get a better personal standard of living. If Kamalahoe wins the WEF plans go into motion and we all lose. We lose first and then you will too.

See 55s latest post.
 
The lefty posters will turn out in droves when Kamala magically gets 87 million votes and will celebrate as this country gets the final death nail.

Everything about this woman is fake. Her entire campaign, her fake interest. It’s a joke.
The only time they have "fun" and "joy" is when they are purposefully making the rest of us miserable.
 
The only time they have "fun" and "joy" is when they are purposefully making the rest of us miserable.
Yeah... Real miserable experiencing record low unemployment, record high stocks, high GDP, and an economy that has added jobs every month for 4 years straight.
Oh the pain. Lord hep us.
 
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** Newsflash from the 'Lying Liars and the GD Lies They Tell' Department **

4.1% rate

Private Sector Jobs: - 28,000 (NEGATIVE 28,000). "We were looking for 90,000 added"

Factory Jobs: "A loss of 46,000 jobs"

Government Jobs: "We added 40,000 jobs"



I'll leave this right here.

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Facts....
 
Something just hit me. And I’m not usually a fan of playing this game. But, it’s very odd that nightwish only drops in when polling seems to be swinging Harris’ way.

-He loves talking about polls. Even mentioned analyzing them all the way back to ‘08 and only being shocked by the end result in ‘16.

-is a self proclaimed “above the fray” moderate with a smug attitude.

-a few weeks he busted up in here (of course when Camilla was polling better) boasting that he would bet anyone in here she would win….like a real bet.

-joined in December of 2020.

Y’all remember who else did all that? All the way down to taking a bet on the 2016 election and lost (wish I could remember who JAMO lost that bet to, but the name escapes me). Too bad ol’ JAMO disappeared soon after losing that bet without ever paying up.

Hmmmm.
 
I think it's a great system that the smaller states can't be completely overwhelmed by the larger ones. No one would campaign outside the 5-10 largest states, so just different states would be targeted than today.
Can't say you're wrong but I sure would like for my vote to count in Ky. It sucks for me and any other Dem in this state.
 
If Trump wants to do something useful, in the event he loses, he could throw his political weight around, and cherry pick some vulnerable Senate and House seats, and form an independent "nuisance" party. It really wouldn't take that many. 4 or 5 Senators and around two dozen House seats. It would prevent either of the sh*thead parties from obtaining a controlling majority. He's the only person in the US that would even have a chance at accomplishing that. He'd have to flip a few southern/midwest Democrats, on top of the Republicans he poached, but that's doable.
 
This is likely your answer, as most into the numbers of it all were waiting for this particular poll to drop tonight. Obviously this doesn't mean Harris is winning IA but if it's anywhere close to this, she wins the race. If it's that close in Iowa or she's actually leading, that makes things significantly tougher for Trump. But tonight, disregard it if you want, say it's cheating, I don't care. We'll all know on Tuesday evening what's what.

Selzer is the absolute gold standard as far as pollsters go. She's considered a god amongst political data scientists. Even if she's off by 5 points this is still horrible news for Trump. If he only won Iowa by 2 he'll lose in a landslide.
 
Something just hit me. And I’m not usually a fan of playing this game. But, it’s very odd that nightwish only drops in when polling seems to be swinging Harris’ way.

-He loves talking about polls. Even mentioned analyzing them all the way back to ‘08 and only being shocked by the end result in ‘16.

-is a self proclaimed “above the fray” moderate with a smug attitude.

-a few weeks he busted up in here (of course when Camilla was polling better) boasting that he would bet anyone in here she would win….like a real bet.

-joined in December of 2020.

Y’all remember who else did all that? All the way down to taking a bet on the 2016 election and lost (wish I could remember who JAMO lost that bet to, but the name escapes me). Too bad ol’ JAMO disappeared soon after losing that bet without ever paying up.

Hmmmm.
Lol.

1. I didn't mention analyzing polling numbers since 2008. I told HK I was confident in '08 and '12 of Obama winning, was wrong in '16 and very confident in '20. You took what I wrote to someone else and created something that didn't exist in my post.

2. I checked my post history. Until a few hours ago, I hadn't posted in this thread since mid-Sept, so that wasn't "a few weeks ago" and trying to make bets with folks online isn't my style, so again, you're making things up.

If you wanna discuss the election, cool. If you're just going to make stuff up to get my attention, that's pretty lame.
 
It was KABCats that wanted to bet me. (I think) I can't even remember the specifics of it. (He was a tool on here for awhile, but in other threads, he's a pretty funny dude.

Polls are polls. At BEST, they can offer a blurry look at whether a race is tight or not.

The polymarket fascination is weird to me. My main takeaway from it is this: It is extremely accurate if the person you support is up. If they're not, then it's just silly. (seen that from both sides on here)
 
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For anyone dismissing the Iowa poll, the same exact thing happened in 2020, except it swung from Biden to Trump. Her polls are continuously outliers compared to others and they're continuously correct. It might not be correct this time, but dismiss it cautiously.

She staked her reputation in 2016 when she published a poll that showed Trump's lead on Clinton far bigger than anyone else.

She staked her reputation in 2020 when she showed Trump with a commanding lead in Iowa when others showed it tied or a Biden lead.

From 2020:

The final poll was released Saturday evening, three days before Election Day, to a skeptical crowd of political junkies, some of whom howled their disapproval on social media.

"Everybody starts saying, ‘She’s terrible, she’ll be fired, pay no attention,'" Selzer said. "This has happened to me many, many times."

https://desmoinesregister.com/story...-results-how-did-ann-selzer-do-it/6159615002/
 
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