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POLITICAL THREAD

How will they rule ??!

  • YES - Qualified

    Votes: 41 82.0%
  • NO - Disqualified

    Votes: 9 18.0%

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .
Is Trump about to enter preeminent status on the list of Worst Mojocat Predictions Ever? I'm still a skeptic, but I note with interest this thing I just read. I know it will reverse - Hillary will get her own bump after this convention. Still.....

"Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast has Republican nominee Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if the election were held today, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Silver's "now-cast," updated with fresh surveys on Monday, shows Trump's current likelihood of winning at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent. In the 11 battleground states, Colorado, Virginia and Michigan would go to Clinton, while Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa would go to Trump.

The breakdown shifts a bit between the Electoral College and the popular vote. Silver's model currently predicts the popular vote going 45.4 percent to Trump vs. 45.1 percent to Clinton, but the Electoral College giving Trump a wider margin of victory, 285 votes and Clinton 252.6."

She very well may get a bump, but what caught me by surprise was apparently Trump is the first candidate that has gotten a substantial bump since 2000.
 
Is Trump about to enter preeminent status on the list of Worst Mojocat Predictions Ever? I'm still a skeptic, but I note with interest this thing I just read. I know it will reverse - Hillary will get her own bump after this convention. Still.....

"Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast has Republican nominee Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if the election were held today, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Silver's "now-cast," updated with fresh surveys on Monday, shows Trump's current likelihood of winning at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent. In the 11 battleground states, Colorado, Virginia and Michigan would go to Clinton, while Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa would go to Trump.

The breakdown shifts a bit between the Electoral College and the popular vote. Silver's model currently predicts the popular vote going 45.4 percent to Trump vs. 45.1 percent to Clinton, but the Electoral College giving Trump a wider margin of victory, 285 votes and Clinton 252.6."
She may or may not get a bump- it may well be a bump in the wrong direction. First, the convention has been an unmitigated disaster so far- starting with the emails, and the Bernie chants, and things may just be starting to get fun. That aside, the days of a post-convention bump are largely over. Until Trump got his (which may have been a reflection of other events as much as the convention), there hadn't really been one since 2000. Which is not to say that Trump is a lock just yet- anything may happen, including some devastating gaffe from Trump, and not to mention, the MSM will get increasingly desperate and double down like never before. There's also a chance that things get SO bad for Clinton (even more, and worse, emails may be on the way!) that Trump ends up having to face a different, less beatable, candidate in Biden or Kaine.
 
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Should say, the reason I've said Trump can't win a general is because his likability/trustworthy/etc. numbers are so bad. Basically, if 60% of voters say they'd never vote for you, ummm, I'm no rocket scientist, but math.

But he's got the great and good fortune of facing someone as disliked as he is! Maybe more so. Just reading some CBS and CNN polling on Clinton:

  • Only 30% of voters think she's honest and trustworthy (43% for Trump)
  • 31% have favorable opinion of her, 56% unfavorable.
  • Only 38% would be proud to have her as President (39% for Trump)
Etc. They are both voter-kryptonite.
 
On the "Trump is first to get a bump since 2000" point, what amazes about that is the coverage of the convention was even more hostile than normal.

You guys may be right, she may not get a bump. I'm fairly certain she doesn't have time before November to better those abysmal poll numbers cited above. Her only hope, the Dems only hope, is to continue the drumbeat that Trump is dangerous, Trump is a Russian, Trump is a lunatic, etc etc and hope they convince enough people. Or that he does and says stupid things and makes the case himself.....
 
It's possible that this is a hoax, I suppose. If not, it's an independent reason, aside from all others that this woman should NEVER be elected President. To allow this person, if she posted what I just saw, to stand behind her at the convention is indicative of either gross incompetence, to not be aware of this, or gross disregard for the lives of police officers. There is no third option. The only possible defense is that this person did not actually post this on her page.

It's true if you re-post it on Facebook right quick.
 
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I'd love to hear Bernie supports on how the feel about him not calling out Hillary and the DNC. I know they hate Hillary but I'd like to know their feelings toward him now. He fought all this time about standing up against corruption and standing up against Wall Street and creating this revolution. Yet, when push came to shove he backed the most corrupt candidate who is in bed with Wall Street. He sided with the very people he was fighting against. He did this all in the name of stopping Trump which I understand, but I'd love to see how his supporters who have invested a lot emotionally into his campaign feel about it.
 
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Why does everyone assume if russia is the hacker that its in support of trump?

You dont think foreign countries who we have a checkered past with wouldnt love to see us turn into a socialist failure?
 
Should say, the reason I've said Trump can't win a general is because his likability/trustworthy/etc. numbers are so bad. Basically, if 60% of voters say they'd never vote for you, ummm, I'm no rocket scientist, but math.

But he's got the great and good fortune of facing someone as disliked as he is! Maybe more so. Just reading some CBS and CNN polling on Clinton:

  • Only 30% of voters think she's honest and trustworthy (43% for Trump)
  • 31% have favorable opinion of her, 56% unfavorable.
  • Only 38% would be proud to have her as President (39% for Trump)
Etc. They are both voter-kryptonite.

The difference is the silent support for trump. There's a decent contingent of people who'll never admit they'll vote for him; but will.

Won't happen with hillary.

After the reaction to the rnc, even given the extremely hostile coverage by the msm; I thought for the first time hillary may lose.
 
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I watched Spotlight again tonight, great movie. Just curious did anyone mention ISIS or terrorist tonight?
 
And they're marveling at their relationship and how freaking awesome it is. Can they be that dumb to miss the farce that is that marriage? If you like her politics, that's cool, that's your deal, but please don't paint her to be some tolerable person when everyone knows the truth. It's insulting to those who have their head above the sand.
 
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Going to be a close election. Like always, going to come down to a few swing states. I think the Hispanic vote in swing states like Florida is going to be whst does in Trump. He made the wall one of his main policy points and they hate him at a historic level. They are going to turn up to vote against him in big numbers.
 
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Going to be a close election. Like always, going to come down to a few swing states. I think the Hispanic vote in swing states like Florida is going to be whst does in Trump. He made the wall one of his main policy points and they hate him at a historic level. They are going to turn up to vote against him in big numbers.

Not entirely true. A lot of border towns and cities want the wall and/or something to be done. Esquire (while far from a news source it is super liberal so it's quite telling..) just did a piece on how almost everyone down there, including many hispanics, want action. They don't want illegals coming over.
 
Not entirely true. A lot of border towns and cities want the wall and/or something to be done. Esquire (while far from a news source it is super liberal so it's quite telling..) just did a piece on how almost everyone down there, including many hispanics, want action. They don't want illegals coming over.

Except the vote won't matter in border states. Trump is winning those regardless.

Florida is the one to watch just like it always is.
 
yes they did. I know Pat Smith talked, and Chris Mathews and the rest of the MSNBC clowns called her a liar.
His quotes below, just pathetic when you think of what they put on stage last night.

I think it was wrong. I don't care what that woman up there, the mother has felt. Her emotions are her own but for the country in choosing a leader, it's wrong to have someone get up there and tell a lie about Hillary Clinton. It's not true. It's logically not true. It's manifestly not true, even if all of the arguments about what she said afterwards or Susan Rice said afterwards on Meet the Press are true and anybody who thinks about it for a second knows it's not true and I think it's wrong that they ruin their evening with this.
 
Friend of mine saw Al Gore at a Nashville Kroger last night...wearing a Feel the Bern t-shirt. Glad to know Bill's old VP supports his wife, or not.
 
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FYI, that is what led to the comment from the writer that said he would like to beat her to death that I posted.

Wait. The writer wanted to beat up the family who are the victims of an inept Hillary decision that cost American lives?

Just read your other post. Wow. What BS that family has to face.
 
- big dog had his face big facelifted

- big dog's speech must have fallen flat, EClyde hasn't waxed poetic yet. Or auto-erotic asphyxiation occurred.

- pretty damn unorganized of them to hammer "change maker".....change from Obama? He has been POTUS for 8 years you know. Trying to paint her as an outsider? False. Faaaaaaalse.
 
A lot of words to not admit the facts. I get it though you clearly don't like when facts aren't at your advantage to bash Trump.

You want to know how this election is for real. Much like a house is run by a mother(liberal with a lot of feelings, lies secrets, and manipulation) and eventually the kids run the asylum and the mother can no longer handle the show she created........so the dad steps in and begins discipline, structure, no fun, and complete and utter militant ways that no one likes because there is no gray in dads ways.

That's where we are now. Enjoy!
What facts? I bashed both candidates? They are both terrible. I said I didnt care the DNC was rigged or that the RNC tried to rig theirs.

My mistake in responding to your post, I forgot who you were. Nice anecdotal quip or whatever, really fact driven. [eyeroll]
 
Huh? I didn't vote Obama. I know in your mind you want me to be an Obama/Hillary slurper. You want to paint me the same color blue as the rest of these sheep. But you're wrong as always. After all these posts and comments you still don't get it. That's what blows my mind.
Your constant defense of both Obama and Hillary gives you away. You can deny it all you want to but, whenever something damaging comes out, here you come to try and play it down somehow.
 
Huh? I didn't vote Obama. I know in your mind you want me to be an Obama/Hillary slurper. You want to paint me the same color blue as the rest of these sheep. But you're wrong as always. After all these posts and comments you still don't get it. That's what blows my mind.
Your constant defense of both Obama and Hillary gives you away. You can deny it all you want to but, whenever something damaging comes out, here you come to try and play it down somehow.
Are you retarded? Serious question.
No, mentally challenged.
 
Raise your hand if Bill skipped right over you while blabbering on about the late 90's...

13725047_10154292962780502_6548249602496236186_o.jpg
 
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