Looking at the history of their "polls only forecast," you are correct. For one day in late July, they showed Trump with 50.1% - 49.9% advantage. I'll have to check that day on their twitter history to see if they were extra quiet.
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Looking at the history of their "polls only forecast," you are correct. For one day in late July, they showed Trump with 50.1% - 49.9% advantage. I'll have to check that day on their twitter history to see if they were extra quiet.
Russians, dudes hiding out in embassies, whatever.
No politician can be trusted. They lie to us. They lie to each other. They cover their asses. None of this is news, and it's why none of these email leaks are moving the needle. Nobody cares.
Do you actually think Trump would have made it this far if he could actually do something about it? It's all part of the show.
weep for the future:
"The Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation released its first “Annual Report on U.S. Attitudes Towards Socialism” Monday. The survey showed a distinct generation gap regarding beliefs about socialism and communism between older and younger Americans.
For example, 80 percent of baby boomers and 91 percent of elderly Americans believe that communism was and still is a problem in the world today, while just 55 percent of millennials say the same.
Just 37 percent of millennials had a “very unfavorable” view of communism, compared to 57 percent of Americans overall. Close to half (45 percent) of Americans aged 16 to 20 said they would vote for a socialist, and 21 percent would vote for a communist.
When asked their opinion of capitalism, 64 percent of Americans over the age of 65 said they viewed it favorably, compared to just 42 percent of millennials.
The survey also revealed a general lack of historical knowledge, especially among young adults. According to the report, one-third (32 percent) of millennials believed that more people were killed under George W. Bush than under Joseph Stalin."
"The Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation released its first “Annual Report on U.S. Attitudes Towards Socialism” Monday. The survey showed a distinct generation gap regarding beliefs about socialism and communism between older and younger Americans.
For example, 80 percent of baby boomers and 91 percent of elderly Americans believe that communism was and still is a problem in the world today, while just 55 percent of millennials say the same.
Just 37 percent of millennials had a “very unfavorable” view of communism, compared to 57 percent of Americans overall. Close to half (45 percent) of Americans aged 16 to 20 said they would vote for a socialist, and 21 percent would vote for a communist.
When asked their opinion of capitalism, 64 percent of Americans over the age of 65 said they viewed it favorably, compared to just 42 percent of millennials.
The survey also revealed a general lack of historical knowledge, especially among young adults. According to the report, one-third (32 percent) of millennials believed that more people were killed under George W. Bush than under Joseph Stalin."
That makes no sense. Did you just read the first sentence and then rush to post? I said the whole thing is rigged. No where did I mention anything about emails and not accepting them.
They have a few different models. One of which is the polls forecast. Another set of data examines what would happen if the election was "today".
On the rare occasions Trump was ahead if the election happened today, it was buried and very difficult to find.
Then why would you start your post being condescending towards either side? I can definitely tell ya, that Donald Trump isn't/wasn't the RNC's pick. There are a list of Status Quo Repubs who are severely angry over Trump.
This is the last guy that the status Quo will ever have to worry about. Once this election over
Hello Mitch McConnells and Hillary Clintons forever.
2016 is a breaking year. This is the last chance to destroy the status qou. Once that opp is gone. Our country is gone.
Good call BBI, in the "Now Cast," they did show Trump with a small lead for 5 days in late July. If you want to toggle between Polls only, polls plus, and nowcast, there is a menu in the upper left hand corner of their forecast page. It does default to "polls only" when you click on a link to their forecast.
Nobody cares, because the media has been ordered not to bring attention to it.
Hillary said Russians did it. Russians didn't do it. Hillary making shit up to downplay.
And even if it were the Russians. Who gives a shit? It sure as hell doesn't downplay the information that was recovered. My god, do you get angry at the person who turns in a pedophile with photos on his computer?
Terrible comparison sir.
And as I pointed out in my post earlier, this stuff happens under every administration. It's politics.
I can actually respect your support for Trump given your belief that he is an outsider candidate who will be immune to making deals that have been made for centuries to make the wheels keep turning. I just think that if/when those wheels stop, we are all ****ed.
Yeah I do, I think it's fairly obvious at this point that the Republican establishment wasn't for him.
What's also obvious from the emails is that the Dems thought he would be the least formidable. From the emails and actions it's obvious the media is in Hillarys back pocket, so they played up the narrative she thought would give her the best chance. Now they're unleashing their full wrath on him.
So you see, we have an opportunity before us, a real opportunity at change, not just a gimmicky slogan.
I for one am going to take it, it won't come around again if we don't.
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It's not. If you choose to look away, you are enabling crime. The child porn example just drives the point home
I do think Trump would get this far because I think who ever it is(believe me it's above Hiliary's head too) that is really against him just thinks he can be overcome.
They were wrong in the primary but it wasn't ok because Hilliary with the media should stop Trump.......what they can't rationalize yet is if Trump is stirring up whites that haven't voted in years.
Once they see or realize closer to the election do not think for a minute that the group trying to stop Assange now will not go the next step and attempt to attack trump in some way to get his attention that if he wins he better fall in line.
And no I do not believe in illumanti type stuff, but if you got the money and the power an assassination attempt to protect your money and power isn't above anyone's intentions.
I'm not a fan of a lot of things Trump may be about, but the one thing I do like is that he will have an A+ team around him and I hope and pray he is a talking bobblehead while the "team" run this thing.
They were wrong in the primary but it wasn't ok because Hilliary with the media should stop Trump.......what they can't rationalize yet is if Trump is stirring up whites that haven't voted in years.
Once they see or realize closer to the election do not think for a minute that the group trying to stop Assange now will not go the next step and attempt to attack trump in some way to get his attention that if he wins he better fall in line.
And no I do not believe in illumanti type stuff, but if you got the money and the power an assassination attempt to protect your money and power isn't above anyone's intentions.
I'm not a fan of a lot of things Trump may be about, but the one thing I do like is that he will have an A+ team around him and I hope and pray he is a talking bobblehead while the "team" run this thing.
Oh wow, really? This really makes no sense. If the status quo is not working or doing their job, you change to see if you can get a better result. Doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results is a definition of insanity.
Our GDP estimate for next year is 1.4%.
For anyone that understands this issue, let that sink in a little.
As Q mentioned above, with all of the tailwinds, QE, etc... and we still can't grow 3%?
It goes without saying that you can't have amateurs running the economy (thanks Obama you stupid dipshite). We are completely effed from an economic perspective.
It's always the passion that outs the posters that falsely self-label.
And if they are not doing the job, he will get rid of them for someone who will. Hillary will just move them to another position and screw that area up.
I loved how when Wikileaks came out in 2006 and was posting a bunch of shit about Bush and the Iraq war that HOW much CNN and Democrats loved Assange.
What hypocrites.
What hypocrites.
No we don't. Our votes mean nothing. It's all part of the show. If the goal was to get Trump at the top of the ticket so that he could be defeated then do you actually think they will let him win? It's all smoke and mirrors to distract you from the real evil. The real power. The parties are the shadow of the real enemy. And as long as we keep fighting shadows we will keep losing.
I didn't really see much there. It's all stuff we knew was going on anyway.
Anyone who didn't know, will never be informed well enough to find this.
Zero impact imo
We, here, know that is going on. But the average American doesn't IMO. And that was part 1. Let's see what comes out moving forward.
The average liberal/democratic voter doesn't realize how manipulated they have been.
They loved him. FYI, the name Julian jumped from 74th to 37th in popularity in the last 10 years. Sure it will drop back now.
I have a great job and my income has steadily improved while my wealth has grown over the last 20 years. Why would I want that to change?
![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
And that's been under 8 yrs of GOP president and 12 years of DEM president - made no difference to me whatsoever.
Wikileaks just released a new batch of emails. Turns out turning off his internet didn't work lol.
This actually speaks to what is going on in government today. While misguided (my opinion), they (millennials) are also tired of the current status quo and want a change. Not understanding history and the problems with socialism/communism puts this country at risk in the future. In order to survive the future, the GOP really needs to reinvent itself and show the people that it cares about them enough to actually do what they have been voted in to do in the past. Also, get rid of old stereotypes by proving that it can adjust to the current wave of problems (social) and help put in place policies that will actually effect change.
Average American who doesn't realize it, will never find these videos. They won't be on msm.
Libs don't care. They'll vote her no matter what.
Hope you're right though
I agree with all of this. Socialism is not the answer at all. The GOP needs an overhaul. They can't win elections on the backs of white males anymore - they simply don't make up enough of the electorate nowadays. Clinton is going to win this election because the gender gap is going to be bigger than it has ever been.
So you have a double edged sword - I believe that a "traditional" GOP candidate would have walked over Hillary this year. Outside of Obama's approval rating, which is actually quite high, all the other metrics point against the Democrats. The economy is stagnant, the ACA has been something between a disappointment and abject failure depending on who you talk to, Americans don't feel as safe as they have in the past, etc.
However, as evidenced by Trump's support from ~40% of the electorate, a lot of people are tired of "traditional." So that brings us to the quandary - run a radical outsider, he creates a movement, tops out at 2/5ths support, and a Democrat stays in power. Run a traditional candidate, he probably wins, but you're stuck with the status quo. Which is preferable?
Who is the real enemy Daboss?
What do you suggest we do if our votes mean nothing?
Trump is not getting the same voters Romney did John. Working class that have always voted democrat are behind him as well.
You say he loses women by a record amount, that may be so, but he makes the difference up with democrats, African American turnout will be less than the last 2 elections, millennial a that skew heavily left were all in on Bernie, so who knows what they do, and the Hispanic gap isn't as wide as expected.
I think Trump has a real chance, he has a real shot in Pennsylvania. He wins Pennsylvania and Ohio he wins it all imo.
Bill, obviously if he wins the election it makes the question in my post moot - but let's say he doesn't - what's the next move?
Pennsylvania does seem to be tightening - Clinton has gone from 87% chance to 84% chance to win in betting markets in the last week.
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