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Lunardi Readjusts and Moves Us UP!

Tampa_cat54

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Apr 22, 2011
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Lunardi has us down as a team who's resume is "better than at first glance" - basically he went back and reevaluated everyone's resume and realized he was undervaluing ours.

He has moved us up to the TOP 4 seed, just 1 slot away from a 3 seed!

It's in our sights! Need to get to that 3 line!

GHnOG8gWAAA533K

GHnOKW0XEAAH9rJ
 
Interesting he has Gonzaga as a 10 seed? They're 1 ahead of us in the NET, at 19. Gotta be a mistake.
 
He nails the teams that get in but is usually way off on the seedings.

He's not usually "way" off, he usually has them predicted within a seed line- so if we can get up to a 3 in his projection, it probably makes our "floor" a 4 seed.

Just win these next 3 and I think we're a LOCK for a 3 seed. But have to win in Knoxville and/or win a couple in Nashville, and just root for the others around us to crumble a bit.
 
Lunardi has us down as a team who's resume is "better than at first glance" - basically he went back and reevaluated everyone's resume and realized he was undervaluing ours.

He has moved us up to the TOP 4 seed, just 1 slot away from a 3 seed!

It's in our sights! Need to get to that 3 line!

GHnOG8gWAAA533K

GHnOKW0XEAAH9rJ
I think this is fair with 3 to play and SEC tourney to play.

Of these #1s with us as a 4, who would you rather see in the round of 16?

For me, based on matchups, it would be Purdue. I think they are very one dimensional and we have 3 7ft centers to throw at Edey, they have no quickness and I think we could run them off their feet. Edey never really ventures above the foul line or out of the paint on defense. High ball screens with our center screening for Reeves, Dilly or Shep and no hedge on the screen should lead to those guys shooting open 3s all game. I like our chances with 3 guys shooting 44% or better from 3 getting open 3s.
 
But when they are undefeated or have 1 or 2 losses their conference doesn't matter. Makes no sense.

It's basically because for mid majors the seeding is all over the map. If you look on Bracket Matrix most years it's always the mid majors that have the most differing of opinions on where they should be seeded.

Except when like u said they have few losses. Then no one seems to care what conference they are in.

This is probably the biggest argument on why humans should stay out of the seeding. When you have mid majors that get not as many opportunities that power conference teams do for big wins, it's hard to know where to put them.

Gonzaga is 17th in Kenpom. We are 18th. They are talking about us being a 4 seed or 3 seed but they beat us at home. Kansas is 16th and people talk about that team as a 2 seed. All because of the amount of Quad 1 wins they have completely ignoring the fact they have that because of the opportunities.

Gonzaga is going to get under seeded. Much like Wichita St was under seeded in 17 when we had to face them in the second round,

Truth of the matter is on a neutral court Gonzaga, UK and Kansas if they each faced each other, the line would be close to a pick em. Yet currently we have one projected 10 seed, one projected 4 seed and one projected 2 seed.
 
But when they are undefeated or have 1 or 2 losses their conference doesn't matter. Makes no sense.
Saint Mary's is in their conference and ranked higher. They can get 2 bids, but it's not common because the rest of the league is so bad. I do think Zaga is worthy of a bid, I am just saying they are a bubble team currently. They can still win their conference tournament though and auto qualify.
 
He's not usually "way" off, he usually has them predicted within a seed line- so if we can get up to a 3 in his projection, it probably makes our "floor" a 4 seed.

Just win these next 3 and I think we're a LOCK for a 3 seed. But have to win in Knoxville and/or win a couple in Nashville, and just root for the others around us to crumble a bit.
"Way off" meaning he misses a bunch of them. He does.
 
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He's not usually "way" off, he usually has them predicted within a seed line- so if we can get up to a 3 in his projection, it probably makes our "floor" a 4 seed.

Just win these next 3 and I think we're a LOCK for a 3 seed. But have to win in Knoxville and/or win a couple in Nashville, and just root for the others around us to crumble a bit.
Don’t forget the last couple of years the committee has basically ignored the conference tournaments and their results.
 
Lunardi has us down as a team who's resume is "better than at first glance" - basically he went back and reevaluated everyone's resume and realized he was undervaluing ours.

He has moved us up to the TOP 4 seed, just 1 slot away from a 3 seed!

It's in our sights! Need to get to that 3 line!

GHnOG8gWAAA533K

GHnOKW0XEAAH9rJ
Some of the bracket matrix guys are on Twitter, and post their thoughts nightly. A few of them also have us as the top 4.
 
This guy is one of the better ones he has Kentucky #14 overall

Updated: March 1, 2024 | 6 a.m. ET


Seeds 1-24Seeds 25-50Seeds 51-68First 4 OUT
1) Purdue25) St. Mary’s51) SamfordVillanova
2) Connecticut26) Miss State52) UC-IrvineSt. John’s
3) Houston27) Utah State53) CornellUtah
4) Arizona28) Northwestern ↑54) AkronColorado
5) No Carolina29) Oklahoma55) CharlestonNext 4 OUT
6) Tennessee30) Boise State56) VermontKansas St
7) Marquette31) TCU ↑57) High PointIowa
8) Iowa State32) Nebraska58) OaklandJa Madison
9) Kansas33) Texas Tech ↓59) ColgateOle Miss
10) Baylor34) Nevada60) Morehead St
11) Alabama35) Colorado St61) E. WashNext In Line
12) Duke36) Michigan St62) FairfieldDrake
13) Creighton37) Fla Atlantic63) Sam HoustonTexas AM
14) Kentucky38) Texas64) So Dak StSyracuse
15) San Diego St39) Virginia65) Norfolk StOregon
16) Auburn40) New Mexico66) MerrimackPittsburgh
17) Illinois41) Seton Hall67) E. KentuckyMemphis
18) Clemson42) Gonzaga68) Grambling StCincinnati
19) BYU43) Wake ForestUNLV
20) Wash State44) ProvidenceOhio State
21) So Carolina45) Indiana St
22) Florida46) Richmond
23) Wisconsin47) So Florida
24) Dayton48) Gr. Canyon
49) McNeese
50) App State
 
From what I've seen over the years with this bracketology is that there are some teams that get valued at a particular spot and they don't move much, even with several losses. And then there is a team that UK, which can't hide to be honest, not with all the media attention we constantly get, that always moves around based on wins and losses. Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, UNC, are just a few of those that seem to hang on to their seeding in these brackets almost regardless of losses. I just saw a bracket earlier that stillnhad Kansas as a 2 seed. I said what?! They are barely a 4-seed at this point. Wisconsin is another one. They are now 18-10 and have lost 6 out of 8, but at one time they were considered a 4-seed.

Most of the time the high major, big name basketball schools hold their seed. UK is an exception to that for various reasons.
 
Has anyone else noticed that Auburn has only 1 quad 1 win ? Kentucky would get roasted if they had only quad 1 win right now and Kentucky would be an 8 seed with only 1 quad 1 win. Auburn is pretty much a 4 on most people's boards still.
 
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Lunardi has us down as a team who's resume is "better than at first glance" - basically he went back and reevaluated everyone's resume and realized he was undervaluing ours.

He has moved us up to the TOP 4 seed, just 1 slot away from a 3 seed!

It's in our sights! Need to get to that 3 line!

GHnOG8gWAAA533K

GHnOKW0XEAAH9rJ
Finally he took a deep dive.
 
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This guy is one of the better ones he has Kentucky #14 overall

Updated: March 1, 2024 | 6 a.m. ET


Seeds 1-24Seeds 25-50Seeds 51-68First 4 OUT
1) Purdue25) St. Mary’s51) SamfordVillanova
2) Connecticut26) Miss State52) UC-IrvineSt. John’s
3) Houston27) Utah State53) CornellUtah
4) Arizona28) Northwestern ↑54) AkronColorado
5) No Carolina29) Oklahoma55) CharlestonNext 4 OUT
6) Tennessee30) Boise State56) VermontKansas St
7) Marquette31) TCU ↑57) High PointIowa
8) Iowa State32) Nebraska58) OaklandJa Madison
9) Kansas33) Texas Tech ↓59) ColgateOle Miss
10) Baylor34) Nevada60) Morehead St
11) Alabama35) Colorado St61) E. WashNext In Line
12) Duke36) Michigan St62) FairfieldDrake
13) Creighton37) Fla Atlantic63) Sam HoustonTexas AM
14) Kentucky38) Texas64) So Dak StSyracuse
15) San Diego St39) Virginia65) Norfolk StOregon
16) Auburn40) New Mexico66) MerrimackPittsburgh
17) Illinois41) Seton Hall67) E. KentuckyMemphis
18) Clemson42) Gonzaga68) Grambling StCincinnati
19) BYU43) Wake ForestUNLV
20) Wash State44) ProvidenceOhio State
21) So Carolina45) Indiana St
22) Florida46) Richmond
23) Wisconsin47) So Florida
24) Dayton48) Gr. Canyon
49) McNeese
50) App State

Love it!

Seems we are pretty squarely in the 4 seed bucket on most sites.

Win these next 2, let carnage ensue elsewhere, and we may be a projected 3 already when we head into Knox.
 
Win the last 3 and get to the SEC championship game and we're probably a 2.
I think we need to win out for a 2 . and even then we are probably the highest 3 seed. as long as we are a 3 seed though I am fine. Its just such a diffremce being a 2 or 3 compared to a 4 or 5. In those seeds you are playing a team of equal worth essentially by the 2nd game . I think its important for a team with no tourney experience to get some confidence in those 1st few games like we did in the 2011 season when we pulled out a a tough one in round one on that Knight Jumper and then avenged some ghosts by beating WVU in the 2nd round . There are not many teams I want to avoid before then elite 8. Uconn , Houston , and maybe Iowa St are about it .
 
Love it!

Seems we are pretty squarely in the 4 seed bucket on most sites.

Win these next 2, let carnage ensue elsewhere, and we may be a projected 3 already when we head into Knox.
You can’t look it like that. We aren’t any seed until selection Sunday. Just a lunardi dart toss. In order to be a 3 seed in the tournament is to run the regular season table. Period. Even then we will HAVE to win our opening game in the SECT and maybe even one more to nail it down playing at more friendly venues. The bottomline is win out and win a couple sec games in the tourney. 3 seed lock if we do that
 
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From what I've seen over the years with this bracketology is that there are some teams that get valued at a particular spot and they don't move much, even with several losses. And then there is a team that UK, which can't hide to be honest, not with all the media attention we constantly get, that always moves around based on wins and losses. Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, UNC, are just a few of those that seem to hang on to their seeding in these brackets almost regardless of losses. I just saw a bracket earlier that stillnhad Kansas as a 2 seed. I said what?! They are barely a 4-seed at this point. Wisconsin is another one. They are now 18-10 and have lost 6 out of 8, but at one time they were considered a 4-seed.

Most of the time the high major, big name basketball schools hold their seed. UK is an exception to that for various reasons.
maybe not as much in seeding, but definitely in rankings, UK for years was given the benefit of the doubt, but years of coming up short now works against them. UK has to prove more they belong than in the past
 
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Yeah I mean just going by the rankings on Bracket Matrix, Lunardi is kind of on the low end as far as accuracy goes.

But u have to hand it to him. He's convinced a bunch of people that he's important and turned it into probably a very lucrative position at ESPN lol.


I mean last 5 years, 98th out of 174th.

That's certainly not great lol. I mean I do this year after year and consistently score higher lol.
 
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