Matt Jones knows politics and the law. He is clueless about almost everything else,Jones is smart as a whip (to the chagrin of some), but I think he still overvalues 5-star freshmen – especially in today’s environment with the much greater value placed on perimeter shooting. I think a lot of people do this because of the history of excitement around recruiting and trying to land the #1 class without even really analyzing what that is worth today. Before OAD – whether by going pro or transferring – stacking #1 recruiting classes was the obvious way to build the best teams. But unlike football, in basketball classes are no longer stacked. It seems many, if not most, 5-star freshmen end up leaving after one-year.
But I think you make a good point about Brandon Miller and AL. Without the roster around him I don’t think Miller would have looked half as good. I believe the 5-star freshmen need the upperclassmen around them so they don’t have to feel the pressure of trying to carry the offensive load. On the other hand, I don’t think a top college team actually needs 5-star freshmen to succeed. In fact, I think it’s probably detrimental to winning to bring in more than 1 (2 at the most) OAD freshmen per year. With the portal the way it is now, it seems most of the 5-star freshmen either end up trying to go pro at almost any cost, or end up transferring after their freshman year. Maybe it’s better to try to catch their sophomore versions on the rebound, because their sophomore versions are much better players. Plus, many of the best college basketball players now enter the transfer portal every year. The best upperclassmen in the portal are generally better (i.e., have a bigger impact on winning) than the highest ranked incoming freshmen.
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