I think Sheppard can become a solid pro. But NBA is very different than college. There have been lots of examples of great college play who couldn’t make it (even as a backup) in the NBA, and mediocre college players who became very good pros. Billy McCaffrey was an absolute stud at Vandy (so good Mashburn had to share SEC-POY with him), could shoot it like Reed and pass it, but I don’t even think got a taste of NBA. That’s not saying Reed won’t , just making the point college is different than pro.
But to be a good NBA player, Reed needs to get stronger and quicker. Yes he can get drafted now, very likely as a lottery pick, but his goal should not be to be drafted, it should be to have a long and successful career in the NBA. Too many guys go too soon, slowing their progress, because the pros be like contribute or sit. So developing one more year, especially his body, can only increase his chances of a rapid advancement in the NBA. And you would prefer to do that so that you are peaking at a level after 3rd year to maximize that 2nd contract, that is the one that “sets you for life”.
Also Reeds parents got that full college 4-5 year experience, and a degree. And I bet they want him to get more of that than just 1 year can give. Let him “be a kid”, enjoy “the college experience”, and not have to rush to “be an adult”!!! Once he leaves, there’s no going back.
He (and Wagner) do not come from homes where they are expected to break the string of generational poverty, don’t have that burden on their shoulders. Not obligated to make $ quickly for their parents.
So while I don’t think it’s a lock, or even a strong chance he returns, I do think it is a reasonable chance (say 30-70%) that he returns.
But I do completely expect him to test the waters, it only makes sense to do that, to find out what teams think you need to work on. I also expect RR to explode when he does test.
As for the OP who suggested he transfer, that is utterly idiotic. And I’m sure DJ’s dad, Rose, Wall, Bledsoe, Wagner, Booker, Ulis, SGA, Fox, Monk, Murray, Maxey, Quickley, Wallace would all agree.
And don’t cry “but Cal won’t start him”. So F’ing what! He is playing 33-35 mpg the past 1-2 months, that’s the max you want even your star players playing. And most importantly he is always finishing games.