Looking back at the time that I've followed UK football (started with the Claiborne years), I don't recall a more disappointing season opener. And my God, that's saying a lot. I was at Commonwealth for the season opening loss to Bowling Green in 1985. That one didn't hurt as much as the weather delayed OT loss to U of L. The WKU loss that opened the Stoops era sucked. Still, last weeks setback was as sickening as it gets. It isn't often that a football team pisses away a 25-point lead (much less at home). UK did just that. How the Cats respond this week is anyone's guess. Kentucky heads to Gainesville to face the Florida Gators. Florida's win streak over UK is comical (29 straight years). For Mark Stoops, the opportunities are starting to run thin. The "head coach on training wheels" has managed to accomplish virtually nothing in his 37 games at Kentucky. Because his contract is so ridiculous, he's going to survive 2016 no matter the record. With that being said, empty seats at Commonwealth and potential problems on the recruiting trail loom. A win this weekend would make everyone forget last week. A loss might mean 20K empty seats next week.
Line: Florida -16.5
Series: Florida leads 49-17
Game Time/Television: 3:30 Eastern/CBS
Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense: Advantage Florida
This matchup comes down to one thing for me...the Florida defensive line is going to manhandle UK's offensive tackles. I fear Mosier/Meadows are going to get absolutely abused this weekend. You never really know when big plays are going to happen, but I can't imagine UK will have any luck at all sustaining drives against what is probably one of the top 2-3 defensive units in the conference. The Gators have two of the SEC's best secondary talents in CB Jalen Tabor and S Marcus Maye. That will makes things even more challenging considering UK's offensive strength is WR. Unfortunately, because UK's offensive line is so outmatched in this game, Florida will be able to rush four and drop seven in coverage. The run game for Kentucky MUST produce SOMETHING! How they accomplish that is beyond me. Maybe they'll hit a couple of big runs/passes or something. The passing game will have to utilize a lot of quick stuff. Anything that requires time will likely result in pressure (or a sack). Best guess, UK is going to have a very difficult time moving the football.
Kentucky defense vs. Florida offense: Advantage Florida
Neither of these units is going to challenge for the leagues best. Against UMass, the Gator offense sputtered for most of the night. Then again, they struggled for most of last season as well. Against Kentucky, you have to think Florida will rely heavily on the running game. The Gators have some big, bruising backs. Their short passing game should enjoy some success against Eliot's bend and snap scheme. UK's defense is predicated on sitting in soft coverage and hoping the other team makes a mistake. If Florida is patient, they should be fine. For Kentucky, the front seven is mostly void of elite level talent. Southern Mississippi ran up over 500 yards against UK last weekend. I doubt Florida matches that number, but they probably won't have to. Kentucky's 3rd down defense has been putrid for most of the last 35 years, and last week was no exception. USM converted 9 of 17 times on 3rd down. A defense void of talent and depth spending that much time on the field = disaster. I think Eliot should be more aggressive on third down, but I've been saying that for four years now. Clearly, that isn't gonna happen. Best guess, Florida has success sustaining drives and putting points on the board.
Special Teams: Advantage Florida
It isn't Saturday in the SEC if Kentucky doesn't do at least one thing to kill themselves on special teams. Following last years debacle, you'd think UK would avoid a major error on their opening punt of the 2016 season. Nope. UK had a punt partially blocked. Overall, Kentucky's punting game is going to be awful this year. Both teams have players capable of breaking big plays in the return game, but only Kentucky seems to excel at killing themselves at least once each and every week in this phase of the game. What will this week's big error(s) be?
Kentucky will win if...they're able to run the ball, score a TD or two off of defense or special teams, and get off the field on third down.
Florida will win if...they own both matchups up front as they should.
Prediction: Florida 23 Kentucky 10...I think the Cats will cover, but they have more holes than swiss cheese. If Florida plays with more interest than last week, they'll roll to a bigger win.
Previous Picks (1-0 ATS, 0-1 S/U)
Kentucky 31 Southern Mississippi 27
GBB!!!