Bracket Matrix March 7th update

[LineSkiCat14]

Probably one of the best indicators of where our seeding is at a current time, is Bracket Matrix.

As expected, the win last night (or rather, just not losing), was able to move us up two spots, from the first 5th seed, to the 3rd 4th seed, jumping Auburn and SDSU.

Kentucky's average seed is now a 4.3 with Illini and Alabama ahead of us a 4.01 and 3.8, I have to think that Illini could still drop after losing to Purdue.

A win @Tenn would almost for sure put us firmly into a 3-seed.

 

[MidseasonTweak]

Both teams have something to play for. It's time to lock in.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Actually noticed a small error. I saw some dingdong still shows as having Kentucky as a 6th seed, hurting our average. But he updated it today to have us a 5-seed.

 

[AGEE11]

Alabama ahead of us narrowly. If only we had played them this year to see who was VASTLY better...

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Alabama ahead of us narrowly. If only we had played them this year to see who was VASTLY better...

There's still a heck of a lot of movement in this. UNC and Duke still play, as does Kansas and Houston. If Duke and Kansas lose, and we take care of business Saturday, coupled with maybe another team or two stumbling.. we could be knocking on the door of a 2-seed. Would probably need to win a game or two in the SEC.. but we're not as far back as some might think.

 

[mcwildcats04]

Even if we lose at UT, have to feel good about a 4 seed if we at least win the first game of the SECT. Might well take a win at UT and win a few in the SECT to get to a 3 seed.

 

[BlueBomb]

Just give me the fourth three seed, and I'll be happy. We need off the four line.

 

[Ballin4nine]

Anything but the dreaded 4-13 or 5-12 matchups. Those are always the upset games.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

We need Illinois to lose @ Iowa on Saturday, and ideally of course us to win.

Those 2 things happen, we're a 3 seed for sure.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I think Arkansas can beat Bama. Now that their players stopped having sex with each other, and Davis/Brazile returned.. they are playing a little better. I actually see Arkansas as one of those teams that's much better than their record, but things just haven't gone their way.

 

[FiveStarCat]

Actually noticed a small error. I saw some dingdong still shows as having Kentucky as a 6th seed, hurting our average. But he updated it today to have us a 5-seed.

I saw that too and most reactivated my Twitter account to give him shit lol.

Was pretty clear he posted an old bracket or something because had a ton of red outlier seeds

 

[FiveStarCat]

We need Illinois to lose @ Iowa on Saturday, and ideally of course us to win.

Those 2 things happen, we're a 3 seed for sure.

Creighton losing at Villanova is the other one I’ll be hoping for.

 

[FiveStarCat]

I think Arkansas can beat Bama. Now that their players stopped having sex with each other, and Davis/Brazile returned.. they are playing a little better. I actually see Arkansas as one of those teams that's much better than their record, but things just haven't gone their way.

bruh what

 

[LineSkiCat14]

bruh what

Haha Google it. It's a wild story.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Alabama ahead of us narrowly. If only we had played them this year to see who was VASTLY better...

I doubt the committee has bama ahead of UK in their rankings today.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

I think Arkansas can beat Bama. Now that their players stopped having sex with each other, and Davis/Brazile returned.. they are playing a little better. I actually see Arkansas as one of those teams that's much better than their record, but things just haven't gone their way.

They can beat just about anyone when they are on.

Beat Duke, played out of their minds against us, gave UNC a good game, beat Villanova, etc.

 

[Smashcat]

A win @Tenn would almost for sure put us firmly into a 3-seed.

Yup.

 

[TucsonCat]

Don't know that I trust the matrix today
We are 20th ranked in Net. Not just a 5, but the last one
The committee can deviate, I just don't know if they will that much if we lose to Tennessee. And a win on Thursday against Texas AM or whoever won't bring it back.
Also, matrix is sleeping on Gonzaga.
17th in Net and a win over us.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Don't know that I trust the matrix today
We are 20th ranked in Net. Not just a 5, but the last one
The committee can deviate, I just don't know if they will that much if we lose to Tennessee. And a win on Thursday against Texas AM or whoever won't bring it back.
Also, matrix is sleeping on Gonzaga.
17th in Net and a win over us.

There are definitely some things not updated, which can make this off..

But it's basically 100 different bracket people giving their thoughts on this, many of them trusted leaders in this area, like Katz, Lunardi, CBS.

So aside from some issues with not keeping this up to date, I'd say it's pretty spot on

 

[Cats192]

Enough of the guys on there are slow to update that it lags a few days.

I’ve started following a lot of the more active guys on Twitter. Several have UK as the top 4 seed after Bama and Illinois lost.

I think a win @ UT coupled with a Creighton loss moves us to the last 3 seed.

I don’t think we can jump enough teams to get to a 2 seed barring multiple early exits from conference tournaments by teams in the 2/3 range.

1-6 are pretty set, Iowa State won’t fall below a 3 seed, and honestly they feel locked into a 2 seed. Marquette will get a pass for Kolek missing games, and I doubt they drop below a 3 seed.

Kansas, Duke, and Baylor all seem pretty safe on the 3 line barring a 1st round exit from their conference tournament. Baylor may be closer to a 2 at the moment. And Kansas/Duke could still climb to a 2.

 

[NothinButNylon]

Glad to see Arkansas playing better now. They have been bringing up the rear in the SEC here lately.

 

[bthaunert]

Anything but the dreaded 4-13 or 5-12 matchups. Those are always the upset games.

Plus, the 4/5 seeds get the 1 seed in the Sweet 16. I'd rather have the 2 seed. Give me a 3 seed and Marquette or Iowa State as the 2 seed and let's do it.

 

[GoNoles111]

Haha Google it. It's a wild story.

Haha Google it. It's a wild story.

Wtf

 

[Jamal Mercer]

I’d always rather be a 6 seed over a 4 or 5.

The 2/3 seeds in this scenario are all winnable.

The teams that I believe Kentucky absolutely cannot beat are Houston, UConn and Purdue. Let’s stay away from them for as long as possible.

 

[GoNoles111]

I’d always rather be a 6 seed over a 4 or 5.

The 2/3 seeds in this scenario are all winnable.

The teams that I believe Kentucky absolutely cannot beat are Houston, UConn and Purdue. Let’s stay away from them for as long as possible.

Even losing at UT and the first round SECt game, I don't think we drop below 5.

 

[Jamal Mercer]

Even losing at UT and the first round SECt game, I don't think we drop below 5.

Guess we need to win out and get the 3 seed lol

 

[JonathanW]

In my expert opinion:
- run the table the next 10 days and I think we get a 2-seed
- Win at UT and our first SEC-T game, OR Lose Sat but win the SEC-T and we get a 3-seed
- Not Lose both at UT, and our first SEC-T game and we will be a 4-seed
- Lose both at UT and first SEC-T game we are stuck with a 5-seed

 

[DreadLox]

There are definitely some things not updated, which can make this off..

But it's basically 100 different bracket people giving their thoughts on this, many of them trusted leaders in this area, like Katz, Lunardi, CBS.

So aside from some issues with not keeping this up to date, I'd say it's pretty spot on

Yes. Many model mean is usually better than any one model.

And I mean it.

 

[Aike]

I’d always rather be a 6 seed over a 4 or 5.

The 2/3 seeds in this scenario are all winnable.

The teams that I believe Kentucky absolutely cannot beat are Houston, UConn and Purdue. Let’s stay away from them for as long as possible.

We can beat those teams. Would like our chances vs. Purdue or Houston better than UCONN, personally.

 

[Aike]

Don't know that I trust the matrix today
We are 20th ranked in Net. Not just a 5, but the last one
The committee can deviate, I just don't know if they will that much if we lose to Tennessee. And a win on Thursday against Texas AM or whoever won't bring it back.
Also, matrix is sleeping on Gonzaga.
17th in Net and a win over us.

We have three top 10 Net wins. Hopefully that counts for something. All Q1 wins are not created equally.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

In my expert opinion:
- run the table the next 10 days and I think we get a 2-seed
- Win at UT and our first SEC-T game, OR Lose Sat but win the SEC-T and we get a 3-seed
- Not Lose both at UT, and our first SEC-T game and we will be a 4-seed
- Lose both at UT and first SEC-T game we are stuck with a 5-seed

I agree with this.

Win Sat and we're a 3 seed, but we can give it away just as quick if we don't win at least 1 game in Nash.

Think we can lose Sat but make it to the semis in SECT and think we're a 3 seed as well.

 

[mcwildcats04]

I agree with this.

Win Sat and we're a 3 seed, but we can give it away just as quick if we don't win at least 1 game in Nash.

Think we can lose Sat but make it to the semis in SECT and think we're a 3 seed as well.

My gut is 4 seed in this scenario. Really need Creighton and others around us to lose in this scenario to hope for a 3 I think. Maybe it happens.

 

[ganner918]

Just give me the fourth three seed, and I'll be happy. We need off the four line.

If we want a 3, we have to beat UT and win our first SEC tournament game. POSSIBLY if we lose at UT then make the SEC tournament championship.

 

[lpkilla7]

Going to have to beat the number one seed at home if they want respect

 

[BlueBomb]

If we want a 3, we have to beat UT and win our first SEC tournament game. POSSIBLY if we lose at UT then make the SEC tournament championship.

I think there's no way we get a three seed without beating UT. The committee has shown time and again that the SECT winner doesn't benefit from that game.

 

[TheDude73]

Don't know that I trust the matrix today
We are 20th ranked in Net. Not just a 5, but the last one
The committee can deviate, I just don't know if they will that much if we lose to Tennessee. And a win on Thursday against Texas AM or whoever won't bring it back.
Also, matrix is sleeping on Gonzaga.
17th in Net and a win over us.

Pretty much. The committee is lazy. They will likely just drop seeds wherever the NET says they should go in blocks of 4. The only work they do is when they put in extra effort to justify absurdities like over or under seeding teams due to favoritism, some kind of story line set up, or TV ratings/money/profit agendas.

 

[ganner918]

I think there's no way we get a three seed without beating UT. The committee has shown time and again that the SECT winner doesn't benefit from that game.

That's why I said MAKE the championship game. Lose @UT but get a couple of wins on neutral floor over some combo of Bama, Auburn, SC, UT, and it depends on what other teams do.

 

[Cats192]

In my expert opinion:
- run the table the next 10 days and I think we get a 2-seed
- Win at UT and our first SEC-T game, OR Lose Sat but win the SEC-T and we get a 3-seed
- Not Lose both at UT, and our first SEC-T game and we will be a 4-seed
- Lose both at UT and first SEC-T game we are stuck with a 5-seed

I hope you’re right.

I just think there’s too many teams to jump to get a 2.

Two of UNC/Arizona/UT will be 2 seeds. Iowa State is a 2 seed if they win their next game. Marquette probably has their losses excused with Kolek out.

Even with some luck on the 2 line, we need to jump Kansas, Duke, and Baylor. Kansas and Duke will get a free loss given the strength of their final opponents: @ Houston and vs UNC. Unless they lose their final game+their 1st conference tournament game, I can’t see us passing them. One of them probably gets the last 2 if the line opens up. A win would shoot either team up.

I think we can jump Creighton if Saturday goes right and that puts us as the last 3 seed.

On a good note, a 2 and. 3 is functionally the same. You’ll play one of a similar group either way.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I hope you’re right.

I just think there’s too many teams to jump to get a 2.

Two of UNC/Arizona/UT will be 2 seeds. Iowa State is a 2 seed if they win their next game. Marquette probably has their losses excused with Kolek out.

Even with some luck on the 2 line, we need to jump Kansas, Duke, and Baylor. Kansas and Duke will get a free loss given the strength of their final opponents: @ Houston and vs UNC. Unless they lose their final game+their 1st conference tournament game, I can’t see us passing them. One of them probably gets the last 2 if the line opens up. A win would shoot either team up.

I think we can jump Creighton if Saturday goes right and that puts us as the last 3 seed.

On a good note, a 2 and. 3 is functionally the same. You’ll play one of a similar group either way.

I'd like to think the ACC is so weak that Duke should have to beat UNC to prove they are as good as their record says. Because if not, then that means UNC swept them and it really says that Duke hasn't beaten really anyone in over 2 months. I mean their last ranked team they played outside of UNC was Baylor.. December 20th lol.

I think Duke should have to win that game to be a 2 seed. They lose that it's a 3 seed or even a 4.

 

[CatPatrick13]

I would like to ask the guys thinking we end up a 2-3 seed, to display what stuff they have been drinking. And please save some for me.